Drake Osborn
C Amarillo Sod Poodles| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 25 | A+NYM | 267 | .179/.264/.359 | 11 | 0 | 23 | — | .136/.195/.272 |
| 2024 | 26 | AA/A+NYM | 276 | .257/.325/.353 | 3 | 2 | 57 | — | .222/.270/.308 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA/AAARI | 95 | .176/.263/.282 | 2 | 0 | 10 | — | .126/.200/.184 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 29 | MLBARI | 2 | .221/.286/.342 | 0 | 0 | 73 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ23% MLB | 30 | MLBARI | 34 | .220/.284/.338 | 1 | 0 | 71 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ35% MLB | 31 | MLBARI | 51 | .217/.281/.332 | 1 | 0 | 69 | -0.1 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | ROK | FCL Mets | — | 54 | 45 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 178 | 302 | 222 | 524 | 44 | 286 | 33 | 13 | 252 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A | St. Lucie Mets | — | 100 | 86 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 221 | 309 | 372 | 681 | 151 | 225 | 15 | 9 | 300 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 267 | 234 | 42 | 9 | 0 | 11 | 22 | 65 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 179 | 264 | 359 | 623 | 179 | 190 | 24 | 8 | 275 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 217 | 200 | 47 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 235 | 288 | 320 | 608 | 85 | 302 | 23 | 6 | 275 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 59 | 49 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 347 | 458 | 490 | 947 | 143 | 500 | 27 | 15 | 425 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 25 | 22 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 273 | 360 | 409 | 769 | 136 | 300 | 8 | 8 | 348 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 70 | 63 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 229 | 238 | 467 | 95 | 184 | 33 | 6 | 221 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | ROK MLE | FCL Mets | — | 54 | 48 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 104 | 189 | 125 | 314 | 21 | 211 | 48 | 7 | 159 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 100 | 89 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 169 | 237 | 270 | 507 | 101 | 180 | 21 | 6 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 267 | 243 | 33 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 13 | 84 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 136 | 195 | 272 | 467 | 136 | 148 | 31 | 5 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 217 | 204 | 44 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 58 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 216 | 256 | 294 | 550 | 78 | 287 | 27 | 4 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 59 | 53 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 245 | 322 | 358 | 681 | 113 | 395 | 36 | 8 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 25 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 280 | 304 | 584 | 87 | 258 | 8 | 4 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 70 | 64 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 94 | 171 | 141 | 312 | 47 | 148 | 41 | 4 | 148 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | ROK MLE | FCL Mets | — | 54 | 48 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 104 | 189 | 125 | 314 | 21 | 217 | 48 | 7 | 159 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | ROK RAW | FCL Mets | — | 54 | 45 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 178 | 302 | 222 | 524 | 44 | 286 | 33 | 13 | 252 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 100 | 89 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 169 | 237 | 270 | 507 | 101 | 188 | 21 | 6 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A RAW | St. Lucie Mets | — | 100 | 86 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 221 | 309 | 372 | 681 | 151 | 225 | 15 | 9 | 300 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 267 | 243 | 33 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 13 | 84 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 136 | 195 | 272 | 467 | 136 | 155 | 31 | 5 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ RAW | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 267 | 234 | 42 | 9 | 0 | 11 | 22 | 65 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 179 | 264 | 359 | 623 | 179 | 190 | 24 | 8 | 275 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 276 | 256 | 57 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 80 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 223 | 274 | 297 | 571 | 74 | 314 | 29 | 5 | 252 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 276 | 249 | 64 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 66 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 257 | 325 | 353 | 678 | 96 | 337 | 24 | 8 | 307 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 95 | 87 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 126 | 200 | 184 | 384 | 57 | 182 | 33 | 4 | 184 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 95 | 85 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 263 | 282 | 546 | 106 | 224 | 26 | 6 | 255 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | ROK MLE | FCL Mets | — | 54 | 49 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 102 | 189 | 122 | 311 | 20 | 211 | 48 | 7 | 159 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 100 | 92 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 163 | 237 | 261 | 498 | 98 | 180 | 21 | 6 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 267 | 247 | 33 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 13 | 84 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 134 | 195 | 267 | 463 | 134 | 148 | 31 | 5 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 276 | 256 | 57 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 80 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 223 | 274 | 297 | 571 | 74 | 310 | 29 | 5 | 252 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 95 | 87 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 126 | 200 | 184 | 384 | 57 | 177 | 33 | 4 | 184 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 276 | 256 | 57 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 80 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 223 | 274 | 297 | 571 | 74 | 310 | 29 | 5 | 252 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 95 | 87 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 126 | 200 | 184 | 384 | 57 | 177 | 33 | 4 | 184 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | ARI | 2% | 200 | 181 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 52 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 215 | 280 | 331 | 612 | 116 | 276 | 26 | 7 | 276 | 73 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +4 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | ARI | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 221 | 286 | 342 | 628 | 121 | 286 | 50 | 0 | 282 | 73 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | ARI | 23% | 151 | 138 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 39 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 214 | 279 | 327 | 606 | 114 | 275 | 26 | 7 | 273 | 71 | -5 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB MLE | ARI | 35% | 148 | 135 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 39 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 211 | 276 | 322 | 597 | 111 | 272 | 26 | 7 | 270 | 69 | -6 | +0 | -3 | +3 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | ARI | 23% | 34 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 220 | 284 | 338 | 622 | 118 | 285 | 26 | 6 | 280 | 71 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB CTX | ARI | 35% | 51 | 47 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 281 | 332 | 613 | 115 | 282 | 25 | 6 | 276 | 69 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 85 | 79 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 215 | 271 | 329 | 600 | 114 | 273 | 26 | 6 | 278 | 46 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +2 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 604 | 130 | 23 | 0 | 15 | 38 | 168 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 215 | 271 | 328 | 599 | 113 | 273 | 26 | 6 | 278 | 46 | -23 | +0 | -11 | +12 | +14 | -0.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1196 | 1091 | 200 | 41 | 2 | 22 | 68 | 347 | 22 | 8 | 3 | 183 | 246 | 285 | 531 | 102 | 242 | 29 | 6 | 236 | 46 | -14 | +1 | -5 | +7 | +9 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 593 | 108 | 22 | 1 | 12 | 37 | 189 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 182 | 245 | 283 | 528 | 101 | 241 | 29 | 6 | 236 | 46 | -23 | +1 | -8 | +12 | +14 | -0.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 70 PAwOBA .216 → .148 (−67)K% 32.9% → 41.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.86% | ÷0.972 | ×1.220 | — | — | 41.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.71% | ÷0.994 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 3.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.29% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 3.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.50% | ÷1.041 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 14.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.119 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.985 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.333 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 2.93% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 167, 1B 108, 2B 124, 3B 97, K 94, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .216 → .148; ISO .095 → .050; BABIP .184 → .148. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAReno Aces · 25 PAwOBA .339 → .285 (−54)K% 8.0% → 9.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 8.00% | ÷1.025 | ×1.200 | — | — | 9.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.00% | ÷0.964 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 5.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 3.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.00% | ÷0.994 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.003 | 14.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 15.00% | ÷1.069 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.003 | 11.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.902 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.904 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 99, 2B 114, 3B 80, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .339 → .285; ISO .136 → .108; BABIP .300 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 217 PAwOBA .269 → .240 (−29)K% 23.0% → 26.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.04% | ÷1.046 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.53% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 3.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.38% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 1.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.67% | ÷0.992 | ×0.970 | ×1.004 | ×0.988 | 21.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.33% | ÷0.954 | ×0.860 | ×1.004 | ×0.988 | 6.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.062 | ×0.950 | ×1.004 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.33% | ÷0.834 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 1.23% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 67, 1B 98, 2B 91, 3B 112, K 109, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .269 → .240; ISO .085 → .076; BABIP .302 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 59 PAwOBA .415 → .294 (−121)K% 27.1% → 36.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.12% | ÷0.988 | ×1.310 | — | — | 35.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.25% | ÷0.973 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.968 | 9.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.69% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.968 | 1.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 36.36% | ÷1.032 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.968 | 29.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.12% | ÷1.005 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 9.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.929 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.03% | ÷1.341 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.968 | 1.92% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 168, 1B 106, 2B 101, 3B 86, K 98, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .415 → .294; ISO .143 → .096; BABIP .500 → .395. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 267 PAwOBA .273 → .202 (−70)K% 24.3% → 31.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.34% | ÷1.018 | ×1.310 | — | — | 31.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.24% | ÷0.970 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.978 | 4.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.87% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.978 | 1.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.02% | ÷0.973 | ×0.870 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 10.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.33% | ÷1.058 | ×0.780 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 3.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.51% | ÷1.054 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 5.31% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 95, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 104, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .273 → .202; ISO .179 → .139; BABIP .190 → .148. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ASt. Lucie Mets · 100 PAwOBA .301 → .232 (−69)K% 15.0% → 21.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.00% | ÷0.959 | ×1.360 | — | — | 21.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.00% | ÷1.081 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 5.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 1.53% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.90% | ÷1.052 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.980 | 13.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.63% | ÷0.999 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.980 | 4.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.23% | ÷0.949 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 3.49% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 110, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 92, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .301 → .232; ISO .151 → .123; BABIP .225 → .180. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKFCL Mets · 54 PAwOBA .251 → .159 (−92)K% 33.3% → 47.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷1.004 | ×1.440 | — | — | 47.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.96% | ÷0.950 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.965 | 8.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.85% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 1.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.040 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.965 | 16.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.41% | ÷1.013 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 5.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.958 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 108, 2B 103, 3B 100, K 101, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .251 → .159; ISO .044 → .026; BABIP .286 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).