Aneudy Cortorreal prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Aneudy Cortorreal P Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 28 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.07

FIP5.07

K%23.3%

BB%15.3%

K-BB%8.0%

ROS IP29

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	19	ROK MLE	GCL Rays	19	1	36	154	51	24	1	5%	1.9	22.5%	19.5%	3.0%	0.9%	2.27	4.16	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	GCL Rays	19	1	36	154	51	24	1	5%	1.9	33.1%	15.6%	17.5%	0.6%	2.27	2.62	—
2021	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	10	0	21	88	27	13	0	0%	2.1	20.9%	18.5%	2.4%	0.0%	1.29	3.68	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	10	0	21	88	27	13	0	0%	2.1	30.7%	14.8%	15.9%	0.0%	1.29	2.39	—
2022	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	39	0	56	264	73	53	2	0%	1.4	20.5%	23.7%	-3.2%	1.0%	3.86	4.95	—
2022	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	39	0	56	264	73	53	2	0%	1.4	27.7%	20.1%	7.6%	0.8%	3.86	3.80	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	33	0	48	233	70	46	4	0%	1.5	23.1%	22.7%	0.4%	2.0%	5.77	5.13	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	33	0	48	233	70	46	4	0%	1.5	23.1%	22.7%	0.4%	2.0%	5.77	5.13	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	33	0	48	233	70	46	4	0%	1.5	30.0%	19.7%	10.3%	1.7%	5.77	4.13	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	7	0	10	41	12	6	3	0%	1.4	29.3%	14.6%	14.6%	7.3%	3.72	6.50	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	7	0	10	41	12	6	3	0%	1.4	29.3%	14.6%	14.6%	7.3%	3.72	6.50	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	7	0	10	41	12	6	3	0%	1.4	29.3%	14.6%	14.6%	7.3%	3.72	6.51	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	TB	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.3%	15.3%	8.0%	3.0%	5.07	5.07	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	TB	27	0	28	120	28	18	4	0%	1.1	23.3%	14.7%	8.6%	3.0%	5.02	5.04	-0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	TB	10	0	10	42	10	6	1	0%	1.0	23.3%	14.7%	8.6%	3.0%	5.02	5.04	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	10	44	10	6	1	0%	1.0	23.3%	14.7%	8.6%	3.0%	5.02	4.66	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	115	19	0%	1.1	23.3%	14.7%	8.6%	3.0%	5.02	4.66	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		108	1	171	780	173	168	12	1%	1.6	22.2%	21.5%	0.7%	1.5%	3.74	4.78	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		127	1	200	914	203	197	14	1%	1.6	22.2%	21.5%	0.7%	1.5%	3.74	4.78	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aneudy Cortorreal (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.07	23.3%	15.3%	3.0%	—	5.04	23.3%	8.6%	28	-0.03	—	—	—
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	88
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	87
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	86
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.74	25.9%	15.2%	147	-0.60	2.97	194	86
Esmerling Vasquez R 2010 · 4.37 FIP	26	SU	4.37	22.9%	14.6%	2.5%	.278	4.23	12.5%	1.5%	62	-0.14	3.70	204	85
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.47	22.1%	12.1%	189	-0.47	3.35	250	85
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	85
Carlos Fisher R 2009 · 3.90 FIP	26	SU	3.90	21.2%	12.8%	1.8%	.317	3.80	18.2%	8.1%	46	-0.10	2.48	245	84
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	84
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	84
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	84
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	84
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	83
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.29	16.7%	9.8%	248	+0.82	4.47	303	83
Mitchell Stumpo R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	26	SU	4.55	24.0%	16.8%	2.4%	.225	5.67	21.5%	6.6%	78	+1.12	3.97	158	83
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	83
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	83
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	83
Manny Acosta R 2007 · 4.05 FIP	26	SU	4.05	23.7%	14.0%	2.1%	.196	4.23	19.0%	9.1%	130	+0.18	3.08	350	83
Jeff Ames R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	26	SU	3.94	25.1%	13.4%	2.3%	.310	4.65	25.4%	10.8%	79	+0.71	3.85	272	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	23.3%	15.0%	1.16	5.05
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Tim Byrdak ('13)	1.7	42	21.4%	13.3%	1.22	4.35
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32