Johan Otanez

P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 168 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	23	29	3.45	3.03	28.2%	18.3%	—	K 18.5% · BB 25.7% · FIP 4.79
2025	23	MIX3 levels	34	41	2.61	3.66	26.0%	14.4%	—	K 20.3% · BB 11.6% · FIP 4.31
2026	24	MIX2 levels	19	23	5.09	3.88	23.6%	17.3%	—	K 17.1% · BB 20.8% · FIP 4.94
2027PROJ	25	MLBWSH	14	15	5.37	5.37	20.4%	16.1%	-0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBWSH	15	16	5.25	5.24	20.9%	15.4%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsHaden Erbe (age 25) · Andrew McInvale (age 25) · Francisco Del Rosario (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.37

FIP5.37

K%20.4%

BB%16.1%

K-BB%4.2%

Proj IP15

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	11	9	43	197	23	28	2	82%	3.9	7.9%	17.8%	-9.8%	1.4%	5.02	5.46	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	11	9	43	197	23	28	2	82%	3.9	11.7%	14.2%	-2.5%	1.0%	5.02	4.59	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	11	3	18	95	23	21	0	27%	1.7	16.5%	27.6%	-11.2%	0.0%	5.89	5.21	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	11	3	18	95	23	21	0	27%	1.7	24.2%	22.1%	2.1%	0.0%	5.89	4.03	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	11	3	38	178	35	30	4	27%	3.4	13.4%	21.1%	-7.7%	3.5%	5.50	6.54	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	11	3	38	178	35	30	4	27%	3.4	19.7%	16.9%	2.8%	2.2%	5.50	5.01	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	1	7	53	10	16	1	10%	0.7	18.9%	30.2%	-11.3%	1.9%	18.90	6.37	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	1	7	53	10	16	1	10%	0.7	18.9%	30.2%	-11.3%	1.9%	18.90	9.25	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	29	131	37	24	0	0%	1.2	18.5%	25.7%	-7.2%	0.0%	3.45	4.79	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	29	131	37	24	0	0%	1.2	18.5%	25.7%	-7.2%	0.0%	3.45	4.79	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	29	131	37	24	0	0%	1.2	28.2%	18.3%	9.9%	0.0%	3.45	3.03	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	0	41	181	47	26	3	0%	1.2	20.3%	11.6%	8.7%	2.6%	2.61	4.31	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	0	41	181	47	26	3	0%	1.2	20.3%	11.6%	8.7%	2.6%	2.61	4.31	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	34	0	41	181	47	26	3	0%	1.2	26.0%	14.4%	11.6%	1.7%	2.61	3.66	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	0	23	110	26	19	1	0%	1.2	17.1%	20.8%	-3.6%	1.2%	5.09	4.94	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	0	23	110	26	19	1	0%	1.2	17.1%	20.8%	-3.6%	1.2%	5.09	4.94	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	0	23	110	26	19	1	0%	1.2	23.6%	17.3%	6.4%	0.9%	5.09	3.88	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	WSH	14	0	15	63	13	10	2	0%	1.1	20.4%	16.1%	4.2%	2.9%	5.37	5.37	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	WSH	35	0	37	157	33	24	5	0%	1.1	20.9%	15.4%	5.5%	2.9%	5.25	5.24	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	WSH	15	0	16	68	14	10	2	0%	1.1	20.9%	15.4%	5.5%	2.9%	5.25	5.24	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	0	16	67	14	10	2	0%	1.1	20.9%	15.4%	5.5%	2.9%	5.25	4.86	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	176	126	25	0%	1.1	20.9%	15.4%	5.5%	2.9%	5.25	4.86	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		119	16	199	945	145	192	16	13%	1.7	15.3%	20.3%	-5.0%	1.7%	4.94	5.31	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		120	16	200	951	146	194	16	13%	1.7	15.3%	20.3%	-5.0%	1.7%	4.94	5.31	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Johan Otanez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.37	20.4%	16.1%	2.9%	—	5.24	20.9%	5.5%	37	-0.13	—	—	—
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	87
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	87
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	86
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	85
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.13	18.4%	7.3%	90	-0.76	3.84	164	84
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	83
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	83
Maikel Cleto R 2014 · 4.24 FIP	25	SU	4.24	23.2%	15.2%	2.1%	.256	3.45	25.4%	14.5%	106	-0.79	2.59	185	83
Cody Scroggins R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SU	4.50	20.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.351	3.78	14.2%	4.6%	18	-0.72	3.78	108	82
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	82
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	82
Yordy Cabrera R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	25	SU	4.99	15.8%	17.2%	1.9%	.321	4.17	13.7%	2.7%	140	-0.82	3.43	159	82
Yaramil Hiraldo R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	25	SU	4.86	18.5%	15.5%	2.5%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	155	81
LJ McDonough R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	22.6%	16.7%	2.3%	.385	4.85	20.0%	2.8%	90	+0.31	4.16	127	81
Michael Blazek R 2013 · 5.52 FIP	24	SU	5.52	16.7%	15.5%	3.4%	.241	3.81	19.8%	10.3%	97	-1.71	2.99	238	81
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	81
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	81
Holt Jones R 2024 · 4.36 FIP	25	SU	4.36	19.0%	15.0%	1.8%	.326	4.32	22.4%	8.3%	123	-0.04	4.21	254	81
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	81
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	20.8%	15.6%	1.11	5.28
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*