Angel Chivilli
P
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 185 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION24 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 105
ERA4.44
FIP4.18
K%22.5%
BB%8.8%
K-BB%13.7%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 91 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p8797.1
Whiff%
p7829.7%
K%
p1015.6%
xwOBA vs
p120.357
FB (22%)
SL-0.6 (35%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rockies | 12 | 12 | 45 | 192 | 45 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 3.8 | 15.9% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 2.2% | 4.00 | 3.78 | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rockies | 12 | 12 | 45 | 192 | 45 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 3.8 | 23.4% | 5.2% | 18.2% | 1.6% | 4.00 | 2.63 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Rockies | 11 | 8 | 39 | 159 | 45 | 8 | 1 | 73% | 3.5 | 19.2% | 6.3% | 13.0% | 0.8% | 3.49 | 2.69 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Rockies | 11 | 8 | 39 | 159 | 45 | 8 | 1 | 73% | 3.5 | 28.3% | 5.0% | 23.3% | 0.6% | 3.49 | 1.73 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 0 | 41 | 167 | 51 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.8% | 7.2% | 14.5% | 0.9% | 2.21 | 2.66 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 0 | 41 | 167 | 51 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 30.5% | 6.0% | 24.6% | 0.6% | 2.21 | 1.65 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 61 | 271 | 68 | 21 | 9 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.6% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 4.0% | 5.61 | 4.80 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 61 | 271 | 68 | 21 | 9 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.1% | 7.7% | 17.3% | 3.3% | 5.61 | 3.82 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 55 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 70 | 22 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 9.7% | 14.5% | 3.4% | 3.43 | 4.17 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 55 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 70 | 22 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.9% | 8.8% | 19.1% | 3.6% | 3.43 | 3.81 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 68 | 313 | 53 | 24 | 13 | 0% | 1.3 | 15.6% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 3.6% | 7.05 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 68 | 313 | 53 | 24 | 13 | 0% | 1.3 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 4.2% | 7.05 | 5.10 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | New York Yankees | 18 | 1 | 24 | 93 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 6% | 1.4 | 24.5% | 6.9% | 17.6% | 1.8% | 1.11 | 2.89 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | NYY | 63 | 0 | 67 | 281 | 63 | 25 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 8.8% | 13.7% | 3.4% | 4.44 | 4.18 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | NYY | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 64 | 25 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 8.8% | 13.7% | 3.4% | 4.44 | 4.18 | +0.4 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 91 | 374 | 88 | 32 | 12 | — | — | 23.6% | 8.5% | 15.1% | 3.1% | 3.55 | 3.84 | +1.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 74 | 314 | 88 | 32 | 12 | — | — | 28.1% | 10.1% | 18.0% | 3.7% | 4.35 | 4.03 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 72 | 0 | 75 | 318 | 75 | 28 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 8.9% | 14.6% | 3.4% | 4.64 | 4.50 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 72 | 0 | 75 | 318 | 76 | 28 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 15.2% | 3.4% | 4.51 | 4.43 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 71 | 0 | 74 | 313 | 75 | 28 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.0% | 8.9% | 15.1% | 3.4% | 4.48 | 4.46 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 68 | 0 | 72 | 304 | 73 | 28 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 9.1% | 14.8% | 3.5% | 4.52 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 68 | 0 | 71 | 300 | 70 | 27 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 8.9% | 14.6% | 3.4% | 4.64 | 4.50 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 68 | 0 | 71 | 300 | 72 | 27 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 15.2% | 3.4% | 4.51 | 4.43 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 71 | 26 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.0% | 8.9% | 15.1% | 3.4% | 4.48 | 4.46 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 69 | 26 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 9.1% | 14.8% | 3.5% | 4.52 | 4.54 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 411 | 0 | 446 | 1910 | 426 | 166 | 71 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 8.7% | 13.6% | 3.7% | 4.80 | 4.37 | +5.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 184 | 0 | 200 | 856 | 191 | 74 | 32 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 8.7% | 13.6% | 3.7% | 4.80 | 4.37 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 234 | 21 | 338 | 1446 | 283 | 115 | 39 | 9% | 1.4 | 19.6% | 7.9% | 11.6% | 2.7% | 4.32 | 3.95 | +5.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 139 | 12 | 200 | 856 | 168 | 68 | 23 | 9% | 1.4 | 19.6% | 7.9% | 11.6% | 2.7% | 4.32 | 3.95 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Angel Chivilli (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.67 | 22.2% | 8.9% | 3.5% | — | 4.46 | 23.9% | 15.0% | 224 | -0.21 | — | — | — |
| Will Vest R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.54 | 21.8% | 8.5% | 2.2% | .282 | 3.67 | 20.9% | 11.9% | 124 | +0.13 | 2.58 | 448 | 81 |
| R.J. Alvarez R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.84 | 23.1% | 11.3% | 4.1% | .348 | 3.35 | 22.4% | 10.7% | 112 | -1.49 | 3.02 | 302 | 80 |
| Matt Barnes R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.49 | 20.3% | 10.3% | 3.3% | .333 | 3.08 | 29.8% | 19.3% | 198 | -1.41 | 2.50 | 495 | 77 |
| Heath Hembree R 2028 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.90 | 18.4% | 7.5% | 2.6% | .256 | 3.82 | 25.6% | 17.6% | 173 | -0.08 | 2.67 | 382 | 77 |
| Bobby Wahl R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.68 | 24.5% | 11.1% | 2.3% | .250 | 2.84 | 36.7% | 26.0% | 58 | -0.84 | 2.02 | 148 | 77 |
| Alex Hoppe R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.25 | 23.7% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .371 | 4.01 | 20.8% | 8.0% | 165 | -0.24 | 2.96 | 214 | 76 |
| Joel Kuhnel R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.18 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 3.5% | .226 | 3.52 | 22.0% | 16.9% | 58 | -0.66 | 2.61 | 473 | 75 |
| David Morgan R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.37 | 19.2% | 10.9% | 2.8% | .291 | 3.55 | 25.6% | 14.2% | 69 | -0.82 | 3.37 | 170 | 75 |
| J.R. Graham R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 18.7% | 7.4% | 3.5% | .317 | 3.55 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 61 | -0.83 | 3.30 | 125 | 75 |
| James Norwood R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.52 | 21.8% | 11.3% | 1.5% | .283 | 3.50 | 31.0% | 18.8% | 102 | -0.02 | 2.27 | 349 | 75 |
| Dany Jiménez R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.91 | 21.6% | 9.5% | 4.4% | .296 | 3.48 | 32.2% | 21.1% | 104 | -1.43 | 3.14 | 321 | 75 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.91 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.40 | 4.51 | 121 | 75 |
| Breckin Williams R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.74 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .282 | 2.79 | 23.4% | 15.8% | 48 | -0.95 | 2.72 | 107 | 75 |
| José Ruiz R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.21 | 18.8% | 11.5% | 2.3% | .345 | 4.06 | 24.4% | 13.8% | 126 | -0.15 | 3.46 | 459 | 75 |
| Héctor Neris R 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.09 | 20.9% | 10.0% | 2.7% | .298 | 3.09 | 31.5% | 23.7% | 221 | -1.00 | 1.97 | 682 | 74 |
| Austin Smith R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .274 | 5.05 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.05 | 4.00 | 134 | 74 |
| Trey McLoughlin R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.89 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 3.2% | .295 | 4.73 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 95 | +0.84 | 3.78 | 217 | 74 |
| Mark McLaughlin R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.28 | 20.6% | 8.3% | 3.4% | .280 | 4.38 | 15.5% | 5.5% | 20 | +0.10 | 4.28 | 195 | 74 |
| Shay Schanaman R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.86 | 21.0% | 7.6% | 4.7% | .292 | 6.38 | 16.2% | 2.1% | 69 | +1.52 | 4.86 | 127 | 74 |
| Tyler Schoff R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.77 | 25.2% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .315 | 3.43 | 17.7% | 11.3% | 50 | -0.34 | 2.79 | 164 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 74 | 23.5% | 8.9% | 1.34 | 4.62 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Austin Voth ('24) | 6 | 58 | 22.2% | 8.2% | 1.50 | 4.63 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |