Hagen Danner
P
Louisville Bats
Age 27
RHP
6'1" / 215 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION33 act + 33 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 103
ERA4.50
FIP4.50
K%21.1%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%12.4%
ROS IP33
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 25 | 0 | 36 | 143 | 42 | 12 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.6% | 9.7% | 13.0% | 2.1% | 2.02 | 3.59 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 25 | 0 | 36 | 143 | 42 | 12 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 29.4% | 8.4% | 21.0% | 1.4% | 2.02 | 2.48 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 4 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 5.3% | 10.5% | -5.3% | 0.0% | 4.91 | 3.99 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 4 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 5.3% | 10.5% | -5.3% | 0.0% | 4.91 | 4.19 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 34 | 1 | 40 | 158 | 56 | 11 | 8 | 3% | 1.2 | 27.7% | 6.6% | 21.1% | 9.5% | 3.63 | 6.82 | -1.1 |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 34 | 1 | 40 | 158 | 56 | 11 | 8 | 3% | 1.2 | 35.4% | 7.0% | 28.5% | 5.1% | 3.63 | 3.73 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 0 | 35 | 149 | 36 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 3.06 | 4.24 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 0 | 35 | 149 | 36 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.2% | 8.7% | 15.4% | 2.7% | 3.06 | 3.64 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 54 | 0 | 56 | 252 | 54 | 20 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.9% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 5.59 | 4.09 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 54 | 0 | 56 | 252 | 54 | 20 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 7.9% | 13.5% | 3.6% | 5.59 | 4.32 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 30 | 0 | 33 | 164 | 40 | 27 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 17.3% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 6.61 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | CIN | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 29 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 8.7% | 12.4% | 3.1% | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | CIN | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 8.7% | 12.4% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.55 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 66 | 303 | 69 | 39 | 7 | — | — | 22.9% | 12.9% | 10.0% | 2.4% | 5.55 | 4.54 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 3 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 21.1% | 8.7% | 12.4% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.16 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 29 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 8.9% | 12.3% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 29 | 0 | 30 | 129 | 27 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 9.2% | 12.0% | 3.3% | 4.61 | 4.68 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 27 | 0 | 29 | 121 | 25 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 3.5% | 4.74 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 13 | 0 | 14 | 59 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 8.9% | 12.3% | 3.3% | 4.58 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 17 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 9.2% | 12.0% | 3.4% | 4.66 | 4.73 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 3.6% | 4.79 | 4.89 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 53 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 49 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.0% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 3.4% | 4.65 | 4.36 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 193 | 0 | 200 | 843 | 177 | 76 | 29 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.0% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 3.4% | 4.65 | 4.36 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 181 | 1 | 203 | 885 | 190 | 90 | 33 | 1% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 3.7% | 4.29 | 4.61 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 178 | 1 | 200 | 870 | 187 | 88 | 32 | 1% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 3.7% | 4.29 | 4.61 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hagen Danner (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.50 | 21.1% | 8.7% | 3.1% | — | 4.69 | 21.1% | 11.9% | 91 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Heath Hembree R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.2% | 2.7% | .292 | 3.96 | 27.3% | 18.8% | 162 | +0.27 | 2.67 | 382 | 87 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.4% | .325 | 4.53 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.65 | 3.88 | 500 | 85 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.43 | 20.3% | 7.5% | 2.0% | .241 | 3.28 | 20.8% | 14.2% | 43 | -0.15 | 2.51 | 131 | 83 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.58 | 17.6% | 6.3% | 2.1% | .246 | 3.53 | 22.7% | 14.4% | 97 | -0.05 | 2.96 | 160 | 83 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .333 | 4.06 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.44 | 3.62 | 147 | 83 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.86 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.1% | .295 | 3.60 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.26 | 3.19 | 269 | 82 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 82 |
| Pedro Beato R 2027 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.40 | 17.4% | 7.5% | 1.5% | .276 | 4.18 | 19.0% | 11.2% | 192 | +0.78 | 3.40 | 295 | 82 |
| Ryan Doolittle R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.06 | 15.1% | 6.7% | 2.5% | .315 | 4.62 | 13.9% | 6.8% | 44 | +0.56 | 4.06 | 101 | 82 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.24 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .339 | 3.34 | 23.5% | 12.8% | 29 | -0.90 | 3.31 | 166 | 81 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 2.0% | .359 | 5.26 | 12.8% | 2.8% | 47 | +1.80 | 3.46 | 108 | 81 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.69 | 2.59 | 309 | 81 |
| Rob Scahill R 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.83 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.34 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.49 | 2.93 | 201 | 80 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.84 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 3.2% | .324 | 3.81 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 135 | -0.03 | 3.57 | 224 | 80 |
| José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.52 | 21.6% | 8.3% | 4.0% | .325 | 4.07 | 18.8% | 6.4% | 153 | -0.45 | 4.02 | 328 | 80 |
| Brandon Brennan R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.48 | 19.9% | 8.1% | 1.9% | .263 | 3.77 | 21.7% | 12.0% | 85 | +0.29 | 3.15 | 403 | 80 |
| Ryan Tepera R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.18 | 21.1% | 7.2% | 3.6% | .174 | 3.38 | 24.7% | 16.0% | 206 | -0.80 | 2.33 | 445 | 80 |
| Steve Geltz R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.00 | 22.7% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .209 | 4.89 | 22.2% | 12.0% | 89 | +0.89 | 3.58 | 157 | 80 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2028 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.56 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .283 | 4.38 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.82 | 3.56 | 104 | 80 |
| Anthony Bass R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.57 | 16.5% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .300 | 3.39 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 123 | -0.18 | 2.93 | 432 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 31 | 21.1% | 9.1% | 1.26 | 4.59 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |