Hagen Danner
P
Louisville Bats
+0.2
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'1" / 215 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.56
FIP4.56
xFIP3.26
SIERA6.26
K%21.1%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%12.4%
IP47
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 25 | 0 | 36 | 143 | 42 | 12 | 2 | 22.6% | 9.7% | 2.0% | 2.02 | 3.49 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 4 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.91 | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 34 | 1 | 40 | 158 | 56 | 11 | 8 | 27.7% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 3.63 | 6.40 | -0.7 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 34 | 0 | 35 | 149 | 36 | 13 | 4 | 20.5% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 3.06 | 4.22 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 54 | 0 | 56 | 252 | 54 | 20 | 9 | 18.9% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 5.59 | 4.33 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 7 | 0 | 6 | 32 | 4 | 9 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.76 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | OAK | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 42 | 17 | 6 | 21.1% | 8.7% | 3.2% | 4.56 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 53 | 230 | 46 | 26 | 7 | 19.9% | 11.4% | 3.2% | 4.58 | 4.07 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 42 | 17 | 6 | 21.3% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 41 | 17 | 6 | 21.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 4.56 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 39 | 17 | 6 | 21.2% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 4.60 | 4.63 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 38 | 16 | 6 | 21.0% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 4.66 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 41 | — | 41 | 171 | 36 | 16 | 6 | 20.8% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 4.74 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 39 | — | 39 | 164 | 34 | 16 | 6 | 20.5% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 4.83 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 37 | — | 37 | 156 | 31 | 15 | 6 | 20.1% | 9.7% | 3.6% | 4.93 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | OAK | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 29 | 15 | 5 | 19.7% | 9.9% | 3.7% | 5.04 | 5.12 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | OAK | 32 | — | 32 | 137 | 26 | 14 | 5 | 19.3% | 10.2% | 3.8% | 5.17 | 5.25 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 158 | 1 | 176 | 753 | 159 | 70 | 30 | 21.1% | 9.3% | 4.0% | 3.88 | 4.70 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 179 | 1 | 200 | 854 | 180 | 79 | 34 | 21.1% | 9.3% | 4.0% | 3.88 | 4.70 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hagen Danner (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.56 | 21.1% | 8.7% | 3.2% | — | 4.59 | 21.3% | 12.3% | 135 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Heath Hembree R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.2% | 2.7% | .292 | 4.09 | 27.3% | 18.8% | 162 | +0.40 | 2.67 | 382 | 84 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.12 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 3.0% | .339 | 3.39 | 23.5% | 12.8% | 29 | -0.73 | 3.11 | 166 | 84 |
| Rob Scahill R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.75 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .288 | 3.35 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.40 | 3.08 | 201 | 81 |
| Juan Ramon Noriega R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 21.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .243 | 3.46 | 24.8% | 17.1% | 57 | -1.00 | 3.46 | 198 | 81 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2028 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 81 |
| Jack Dallas R 2025 · 3.58 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.58 | 18.9% | 6.8% | 2.2% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 169 | 80 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.80 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .295 | 3.70 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.10 | 3.17 | 269 | 80 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.48 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.85 | 2.36 | 309 | 80 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.91 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .348 | 3.55 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.36 | 2.38 | 160 | 79 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.50 | 20.3% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .241 | 3.22 | 20.8% | 14.2% | 43 | -0.28 | 2.49 | 131 | 79 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.75 | 17.6% | 6.3% | 2.4% | .246 | 3.68 | 22.7% | 14.4% | 97 | -0.07 | 3.25 | 160 | 78 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 78 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.82 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .230 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 149 | 78 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.72 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.05 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.33 | 3.70 | 147 | 78 |
| José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.55 | 21.6% | 8.3% | 4.0% | .325 | 4.15 | 18.8% | 6.4% | 153 | -0.40 | 4.02 | 328 | 78 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.00 | 22.2% | 11.4% | 4.2% | .256 | 4.51 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 39 | -0.49 | 2.65 | 315 | 78 |
| Dugan Darnell R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.53 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.2% | .368 | 3.14 | 25.3% | 16.7% | 54 | -0.39 | 2.49 | 238 | 78 |
| Bryan Evans R 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.19 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 3.3% | .250 | 4.61 | 19.7% | 14.9% | 132 | +0.42 | 3.86 | 231 | 78 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 78 |
| David Hernandez R 2029 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 78 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.