Matt Duffy

P Greenville Drive

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	21	MIX2 levels	3	2	4	10.38	8.18	27.8%	11.1%	—	K 27.8% · BB 11.1% · FIP 8.26
2024	22	ASalem Red Sox	22	21	99	2.83	2.95	24.9%	6.7%	—	K 18.5% · BB 7.9% · FIP 4.07
2026	24	MIX2 levels	10	5	22	9.27	6.77	29.4%	12.8%	—	K 22.0% · BB 12.3% · FIP 9.34
2027PROJ	25	MLBBOS	3	3	17	4.88	4.88	21.8%	10.1%	0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBBOS	2	2	9	4.81	4.80	22.2%	10.0%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsJake Lee (age 24) · Alfredo Figaro (age 25) · Carlos Torres (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.88

FIP4.88

K%21.8%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%11.7%

Proj IP17

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	2	4	18	5	2	2	67%	1.4	27.8%	11.1%	16.7%	11.1%	10.38	8.26	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	2	4	18	5	2	2	67%	1.4	27.8%	11.1%	16.7%	11.1%	10.38	8.18	—
2024	22	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	22	21	99	401	100	27	8	95%	4.5	18.5%	7.9%	10.5%	2.8%	2.83	4.07	—
2024	22	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	22	21	99	401	100	27	8	95%	4.5	18.5%	7.9%	10.5%	2.8%	2.83	4.07	—
2024	22	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	22	21	99	401	100	27	8	95%	4.5	24.9%	6.7%	18.2%	2.0%	2.83	2.95	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	5	22	109	32	14	8	50%	2.2	22.0%	12.3%	9.7%	11.9%	9.27	9.34	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	5	22	109	32	14	8	50%	2.2	22.0%	12.3%	9.7%	11.9%	9.27	9.34	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	5	22	109	32	14	8	50%	2.2	29.4%	12.8%	16.5%	7.3%	9.27	6.77	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	BOS	3	3	17	72	16	7	3	100%	5.7	21.8%	10.1%	11.7%	3.6%	4.88	4.88	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	BOS	3	3	20	85	19	8	3	100%	6.7	22.2%	10.0%	12.2%	3.5%	4.81	4.80	+0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	BOS	2	2	9	38	8	4	1	100%	4.5	22.2%	10.0%	12.2%	3.5%	4.81	4.80	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		1	1	9	37	8	4	1	100%	8.6	22.2%	10.0%	12.2%	3.5%	4.81	4.42	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	185	93	23	100%	6.0	22.2%	10.0%	12.2%	3.5%	4.81	4.42	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		35	28	125	528	103	47	26	80%	3.6	19.5%	9.0%	10.5%	4.9%	4.24	5.30	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	45	200	843	164	75	42	80%	3.6	19.5%	9.0%	10.5%	4.9%	4.24	5.30	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Duffy (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	21.8%	10.1%	3.6%	—	4.80	22.2%	12.2%	20	-0.08	—	—	—
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	81
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	81
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	79
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	79
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	78
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	76
Michael Knorr R 2024 · 5.56 FIP	24	SP-	5.56	21.6%	12.5%	4.9%	.314	4.95	22.3%	9.7%	83	-0.61	4.30	181	76
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.04	22.9%	13.8%	138	-1.17	3.38	292	76
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	75
Burch Smith R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	23	SP-	5.18	27.5%	12.0%	5.3%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	418	75
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2014 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	20.5%	13.3%	2.3%	.208	3.88	19.8%	10.2%	210	-0.44	3.22	242	74
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	73
Cole Percival R 2024 · 4.60 FIP	25	SP-	4.60	17.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.296	3.58	20.5%	9.5%	36	-1.02	3.58	327	72
Orlando Rodriguez R 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SP-	4.54	20.8%	10.1%	3.5%	.380	4.51	19.3%	7.9%	101	-0.03	4.40	119	72
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	72
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	72
Landon Knack R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	25	SP	4.38	23.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.335	4.41	21.2%	12.3%	382	+0.03	3.64	556	72
Matt Wise R 2001 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	23.7%	8.1%	5.2%	.271	3.50	13.5%	7.2%	53	-1.48	3.33	302	72
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	72
Cha Seung Baek R 2004 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP-	4.77	14.4%	7.2%	3.6%	.288	3.95	15.7%	10.0%	108	-0.82	3.35	280	71