Luis Mey — OGILVIE

Luis Mey P Louisville Bats

Age 25 RHP 6'5" / 235 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION66 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109101vR 93

ERA3.90

FIP4.01

K%24.8%

BB%14.4%

K-BB%10.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†5560

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.3

Whiff%

p9032.6%

p9031.2%

xwOBA vs

p220.345

FB+2.1 (75%)

SI (73%)

SL-3.2 (25%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Reds	13	12	40	212	28	28	4	92%	3.1	9.0%	16.5%	-7.5%	2.6%	8.39	5.88	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	AZL Reds	13	12	40	212	28	28	4	92%	3.1	13.2%	13.2%	0.0%	1.9%	8.39	5.12	—
2021	20	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	6	0	9	45	10	9	1	0%	1.5	22.2%	20.0%	2.2%	2.2%	6.00	4.98	—
2021	20	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	6	0	9	45	10	9	1	0%	1.5	22.2%	20.0%	2.2%	2.2%	6.00	5.32	—
2022	21	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	34	0	43	205	58	32	3	0%	1.3	20.9%	18.4%	2.5%	2.2%	5.65	4.85	—
2022	21	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	34	0	43	205	58	32	3	0%	1.3	28.3%	15.6%	12.7%	1.5%	5.65	3.54	—
2023	22	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	14	0	17	77	18	16	3	0%	1.2	17.3%	24.5%	-7.2%	4.8%	5.40	7.37	—
2023	22	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	14	0	17	77	18	16	3	0%	1.2	17.3%	24.5%	-7.2%	4.8%	5.40	7.37	—
2023	22	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	14	0	17	77	18	16	3	0%	1.2	23.4%	20.8%	2.6%	3.9%	5.40	6.16	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	55	244	63	42	0	0%	1.4	20.3%	19.4%	0.9%	0.0%	3.44	3.84	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	55	244	63	42	0	0%	1.4	20.3%	19.4%	0.9%	0.0%	3.44	3.84	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	55	244	63	42	0	0%	1.4	25.8%	17.2%	8.6%	0.0%	3.44	3.10	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	61	265	67	37	3	0%	1.0	22.3%	13.2%	9.1%	1.0%	2.80	3.46	+0.8
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	61	265	67	37	3	0%	1.0	22.3%	13.2%	9.1%	1.0%	2.80	3.46	+0.8
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	63	0	61	265	67	37	3	0%	1.0	25.3%	14.0%	11.3%	1.1%	2.80	3.36	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			46	0	50	234	64	36	6	0%	1.1	27.4%	15.4%	12.0%	2.6%	5.26	4.27	+0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	55	1	66	315	94	45	6	2%	1.2	27.1%	13.5%	13.6%	1.9%	5.05	3.58	+0.8
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	55	1	66	315	94	45	6	2%	1.2	27.1%	13.5%	13.6%	1.9%	5.05	3.58	+0.8
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AAA RAW	CIN	32	1	37	177	51	26	3	3%	1.2	28.8%	14.7%	14.1%	1.7%	3.86	3.46	—
2026	25	MLB RAW	CIN	23	0	29	138	43	19	3	0%	1.2	31.2%	13.8%	17.4%	2.2%	6.59	3.41	+0.4
SO FAR	25	MLB RAW	CIN	23	0	29	138	43	19	3	0%	1.2	31.2%	13.8%	17.4%	2.2%	6.59	3.41	+0.4
ROS	25	MLB MLE	CIN	6	0	6	25	6	4	1	0%	1.0	24.8%	14.4%	10.4%	2.2%	3.90	4.01	+0.0
ROS	25	MLB CTX	CIN	6	0	6	25	6	4	1	0%	1.0	24.8%	14.4%	10.4%	2.2%	3.90	4.01	+0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	CIN	—	—	72	340	100	49	7	—	—	29.5%	14.3%	15.2%	1.9%	4.95	3.61	+0.9
FULL	25	MLB A+C	CIN	—	—	35	146	100	49	7	—	—	68.5%	33.2%	35.3%	4.5%	10.28	3.98	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CIN	63	0	66	280	72	39	6	0%	1.1	25.8%	13.9%	11.9%	2.3%	4.26	4.30	+0.2
2028	27	MLB MLE	CIN	62	0	65	276	71	37	7	0%	1.1	25.6%	13.6%	12.0%	2.4%	4.30	4.34	+0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	CIN	60	0	63	267	68	36	7	0%	1.1	25.4%	13.5%	11.8%	2.5%	4.37	4.42	+0.1
2027	26	MLB CTX	CIN	60	0	63	266	69	37	6	0%	1.1	25.8%	13.9%	11.9%	2.3%	4.26	4.30	+0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	CIN	59	0	62	262	67	36	6	0%	1.1	25.6%	13.6%	12.0%	2.4%	4.30	4.34	+0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	CIN	57	0	60	253	64	34	6	0%	1.1	25.4%	13.5%	11.8%	2.5%	4.37	4.42	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		228	0	241	1041	270	146	25	0%	1.1	26.0%	14.1%	11.9%	2.4%	4.49	4.01	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		189	0	200	865	224	121	21	0%	1.1	26.0%	14.1%	11.9%	2.4%	4.49	4.01	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		225	13	290	1363	279	225	24	6%	1.3	20.5%	16.5%	4.0%	1.7%	4.87	4.41	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		155	9	200	939	192	155	16	6%	1.3	20.5%	16.5%	4.0%	1.7%	4.87	4.41	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Mey (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.56	23.4%	14.7%	2.2%	—	4.35	25.6%	11.9%	195	-0.21	—	—	—
Arodys Vizcaíno R 2016 · 3.36 FIP	25	SU	3.36	27.5%	12.6%	1.8%	.321	3.49	26.4%	17.8%	96	+0.13	2.28	183	85
Hunter Bigge R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	25	SU	4.02	23.1%	14.6%	1.9%	.316	4.74	26.0%	14.8%	101	+0.72	3.44	229	82
Brian Ellington R 2016 · 3.44 FIP	25	SU	3.44	27.5%	14.3%	1.6%	.252	5.01	24.6%	9.0%	97	+1.57	2.75	233	81
Tommy Kahnle R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	23.8%	14.8%	2.1%	.284	2.58	30.9%	21.0%	165	-1.55	1.53	458	78
Brandan Bidois R 2023 · 3.45 FIP	22	SU	3.45	30.8%	17.5%	1.3%	.302	4.17	24.1%	9.9%	114	+0.72	2.73	136	78
Austin Adams R 2016 · 3.40 FIP	25	SU	3.40	28.4%	15.2%	1.4%	.310	2.25	34.4%	23.1%	152	-1.15	1.79	392	78
Eduard Santos R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	25	SU	3.51	28.1%	15.2%	1.6%	.265	3.49	24.0%	10.0%	79	-0.02	2.04	138	78
Jackson Kelley R 2023 · 3.80 FIP	23	SU	3.80	26.5%	13.1%	2.3%	.313	3.65	21.6%	10.7%	165	-0.15	3.21	218	77
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	77
Conor Grammes R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	28.6%	16.8%	3.3%	.293	4.52	20.8%	1.1%	128	-0.12	4.11	171	77
Zac Leigh R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	28.1%	11.7%	3.0%	.282	4.58	19.9%	3.7%	131	+0.74	3.70	201	77
Pat Light R 2016 · 4.10 FIP	25	SU	4.10	21.1%	13.1%	2.1%	.276	4.63	11.8%	-2.3%	55	+0.53	4.10	172	77
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	76
Luis Ramirez R 2016 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	24.0%	12.6%	1.9%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.71	104	76
Matt Blackham R 2018 · 3.93 FIP	25	SU	3.93	24.9%	15.7%	1.7%	.236	4.81	25.9%	12.0%	80	+0.88	2.08	187	76
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	76
Justin Evans R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	25	SU	3.63	23.6%	14.3%	1.3%	.323	4.80	16.4%	-7.9%	14	+1.17	3.63	105	76
Jake Haberer R 2019 · 3.46 FIP	24	SU	3.46	26.9%	17.3%	0.8%	.278	5.80	19.6%	3.0%	76	+2.34	3.46	183	76
Thyago Vieira R 2018 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.5%	12.5%	2.0%	.324	4.33	21.1%	10.3%	47	+0.35	3.04	311	75
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	65	25.0%	13.9%	0.90	4.34
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64