Luis Mey

P Louisville Bats

Age 26 RHP 6'5" / 235 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	40	0	55	3.44	3.10	25.8%	17.2%	—	K 20.3% · BB 19.4% · FIP 3.84
2025	24	MIX2 levels	63	0	61	2.80	3.36	25.3%	14.0%	0.9	K 22.9% · BB 13.2% · FIP 3.42
2026	25	MIX2 levels	61	1	72	5.00	3.38	29.5%	14.0%	1.0	K 27.4% · BB 13.3% · FIP 3.44
2027PROJ	26	MLBCIN	33	0	35	4.28	4.19	28.5%	13.8%	0.1
2028PROJ85% MLB	27	MLBCIN	33	0	35	4.26	4.24	28.0%	13.4%	0.1
2029PROJ89% MLB	28	MLBCIN	30	0	32	4.31	4.33	27.5%	13.2%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%90

FB Velo88

xwOBA vs37

Form10.66 ERA (proj 4.28) · K 26.2% (proj 28.5%) · BB 10.8% (proj 13.8%) · last 60d · 13 IP through Oct 27

CompsBrian Ellington (age 26) · Jon Edwards (age 27) · Reyes Moronta (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.28

FIP4.19

K%28.5%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%14.8%

Proj IP45

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8897.2

Whiff%

p8631.0%

p9030.3%

xwOBA vs

p370.327

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Reds	13	12	40	212	28	28	4	92%	3.1	9.0%	16.5%	-7.5%	2.6%	8.39	5.88	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	AZL Reds	13	12	40	212	28	28	4	92%	3.1	13.2%	13.2%	0.0%	1.9%	8.39	5.12	—
2021	20	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	6	0	9	45	10	9	1	0%	1.5	22.2%	20.0%	2.2%	2.2%	6.00	4.98	—
2021	20	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	6	0	9	45	10	9	1	0%	1.5	22.2%	20.0%	2.2%	2.2%	6.00	5.32	—
2022	21	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	34	0	43	205	58	32	3	0%	1.3	20.9%	18.4%	2.5%	2.2%	5.65	4.85	—
2022	21	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	34	0	43	205	58	32	3	0%	1.3	28.3%	15.6%	12.7%	1.5%	5.65	3.54	—
2023	22	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	14	0	17	77	18	16	3	0%	1.2	17.3%	24.5%	-7.2%	4.8%	5.40	7.37	—
2023	22	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	14	0	17	77	18	16	3	0%	1.2	23.4%	20.8%	2.6%	3.9%	5.40	6.16	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	55	244	63	42	0	0%	1.4	20.3%	19.4%	0.9%	0.0%	3.44	3.84	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	55	244	63	42	0	0%	1.4	20.3%	19.4%	0.9%	0.0%	3.44	3.84	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	55	244	63	42	0	0%	1.4	25.8%	17.2%	8.6%	0.0%	3.44	3.10	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	61	265	67	37	3	0%	1.0	22.9%	13.2%	9.6%	1.0%	2.80	3.42	+0.8
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	61	265	67	37	3	0%	1.0	22.9%	13.2%	9.6%	1.0%	2.80	3.42	+0.8
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	63	0	61	265	67	37	3	0%	1.0	25.3%	14.0%	11.3%	1.1%	2.80	3.36	+0.9
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	1	72	342	101	48	6	2%	1.2	27.4%	13.3%	14.2%	1.8%	5.00	3.44	+1.0
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	1	72	342	101	48	6	2%	1.2	27.4%	13.3%	14.2%	1.8%	5.00	3.44	+1.0
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	61	1	72	342	101	48	6	2%	1.2	29.5%	14.0%	15.5%	1.8%	5.00	3.38	+1.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			52	0	56	261	71	39	6	0%	1.1	27.2%	14.9%	12.3%	2.3%	5.17	4.05	+0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CIN	33	0	35	148	42	20	4	0%	1.1	28.5%	13.8%	14.8%	2.5%	4.28	4.19	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CIN	39	0	41	174	49	23	5	0%	1.1	28.0%	13.4%	14.6%	2.6%	4.26	4.24	+0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	CIN	35	0	36	153	42	20	4	0%	1.0	27.5%	13.2%	14.3%	2.7%	4.31	4.33	+0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	CIN	29	0	30	128	34	17	4	0%	1.0	26.7%	13.3%	13.5%	2.9%	4.42	4.49	+0.0
2031	30	MLB MLE	CIN	23	0	24	100	26	14	3	0%	1.0	26.0%	13.5%	12.5%	3.1%	4.58	4.69	-0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	CIN	33	0	35	148	41	20	4	0%	1.1	28.0%	13.4%	14.6%	2.6%	4.26	4.24	+0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	CIN	30	0	32	135	37	18	4	0%	1.1	27.5%	13.2%	14.3%	2.7%	4.31	4.33	+0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	CIN	26	0	27	114	30	15	3	0%	1.0	26.7%	13.3%	13.5%	2.9%	4.42	4.49	+0.0
2031	30	MLB CTX	CIN	21	0	22	93	24	13	3	0%	1.0	26.0%	13.5%	12.5%	3.1%	4.58	4.69	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		163	0	172	754	205	105	20	0%	1.1	27.2%	13.9%	13.3%	2.6%	4.63	4.01	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		189	0	200	875	238	122	23	0%	1.1	27.2%	13.9%	13.3%	2.6%	4.63	4.01	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		231	13	296	1390	289	228	24	6%	1.3	20.8%	16.4%	4.4%	1.7%	4.86	4.35	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		156	9	200	938	195	154	16	6%	1.3	20.8%	16.4%	4.4%	1.7%	4.86	4.35	+0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALouisville Bats · 37 IPFIP 3.46 → 3.71 (+0.25)K% 28.8% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.81%	—	×0.860	24.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.69%	—	×0.900	13.22%
HR / BF /BF	1.69%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.86%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.46 → 3.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALouisville Bats · 40 IPFIP 2.30 → 2.47 (+0.17)K% 27.2% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.22%	—	×0.860	23.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.83%	—	×0.900	10.65%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.901	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.30 → 2.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Dayton Dragons · 29 IPFIP 3.10 → 4.00 (+0.90)K% 28.1% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.12%	—	×0.770	21.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.75%	—	×1.150	21.56%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.285	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 157).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 4.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 26 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.67 (+0.57)K% 23.3% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.28%	—	×0.810	18.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.52%	—	×1.100	17.07%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.089	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 118).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADaytona Tortugas · 17 IPFIP 5.90 → 7.37 (+1.47)K% 23.4% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.38%	—	×0.740	17.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.78%	—	×1.180	24.52%
HR / BF /BF	3.90%	÷1.060	×1.300	4.78%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 5.90 → 7.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ADaytona Tortugas · 43 IPFIP 3.49 → 4.85 (+1.36)K% 28.3% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.29%	—	×0.740	20.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.61%	—	×1.180	18.42%
HR / BF /BF	1.46%	÷0.883	×1.300	2.16%

Result: FIP 3.49 → 4.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ADaytona Tortugas · 9 IPFIP 4.98 → 6.34 (+1.36)K% 22.2% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.22%	—	×0.740	16.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.00%	—	×1.180	23.60%
HR / BF /BF	2.22%	÷0.969	×1.300	2.98%

Result: FIP 4.98 → 6.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKAZL Reds · 40 IPFIP 4.69 → 5.88 (+1.19)K% 13.2% → 9.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.21%	—	×0.680	8.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.21%	—	×1.250	16.51%
HR / BF /BF	1.89%	÷1.000	×1.400	2.64%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.69 → 5.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Mey (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.19	28.5%	13.8%	2.5%	—	4.34	27.5%	14.2%	108	+0.15	—	—	—
Brian Ellington R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	26	SU	4.75	25.5%	14.9%	3.5%	.283	5.61	22.4%	5.3%	29	+0.86	2.75	233	80
Jon Edwards R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	31.7%	13.1%	2.4%	.264	2.40	30.3%	22.6%	30	-1.00	2.40	132	79
Reyes Moronta R 2019 · 3.31 FIP	26	SU	3.31	28.5%	13.0%	1.8%	.264	5.16	21.5%	5.3%	56	+1.85	3.06	361	78
Zach Franklin R 2024 · 3.24 FIP	25	SU	3.24	26.4%	10.9%	1.8%	.301	4.15	27.5%	18.3%	117	+0.91	3.24	158	78
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.36	21.4%	10.8%	92	+0.05	3.89	168	77
Jeff Ames R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	26	SU	3.94	25.1%	13.4%	2.3%	.310	4.65	25.4%	10.8%	79	+0.71	3.85	272	76
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	76
Pierce Johnson R 2017 · 3.09 FIP	26	SU	3.09	27.8%	11.7%	1.6%	.374	3.71	25.0%	13.7%	86	+0.62	2.75	598	76
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	76
Tyler Kinley R 2017 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	25.0%	10.3%	2.6%	.295	3.82	25.0%	11.7%	140	+0.08	1.58	602	76
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	76
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	76
Grant Balfour R 2004 · 3.79 FIP	26	SU	3.79	24.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.292	4.01	24.8%	8.3%	25	+0.22	2.04	533	76
Eric Reyzelman R 2024 · 3.81 FIP	23	SU	3.81	30.3%	15.6%	2.4%	.261	4.78	24.5%	8.6%	94	+0.97	3.81	117	75
Yosver Zulueta R 2024 · 3.35 FIP	26	SU	3.35	24.3%	11.5%	1.6%	.339	4.16	24.0%	12.2%	105	+0.81	3.19	290	75
Brooks Kriske R 2019 · 3.47 FIP	25	SU	3.47	26.1%	12.2%	1.9%	.245	4.95	28.6%	16.5%	41	+1.48	3.09	246	75
Justin Anderson R 2019 · 4.12 FIP	26	SU	4.12	27.6%	14.7%	2.7%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.22	587	75
Dustin Antolin R 2016 · 3.43 FIP	26	SU	3.43	23.9%	13.1%	1.3%	.286	4.35	16.2%	1.8%	50	+0.92	2.95	159	75
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	75
José Ramírez R 2016 · 3.36 FIP	26	SU	3.36	23.0%	10.4%	1.6%	.274	4.56	21.7%	10.8%	62	+1.20	3.36	206	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	33	27.5%	13.8%	1.01	4.54
Kyle Barraclough ('23)	1.4	56	28.2%	13.9%	0.99	3.86
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*