Adrian Hernandez
P
New Hampshire Fisher Cats
Age 26
RHP
5'8" / 190 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 28 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 103
ERA4.53
FIP4.53
K%22.4%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%11.7%
ROS IP28
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Blue Jays | 13 | 8 | 55 | 232 | 64 | 21 | 2 | 62% | 4.3 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 7.4% | 1.2% | 2.60 | 3.61 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Blue Jays | 13 | 8 | 55 | 232 | 64 | 21 | 2 | 62% | 4.3 | 27.6% | 9.1% | 18.5% | 0.9% | 2.60 | 2.40 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | 16 | 0 | 21 | 100 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 10.2% | 10.0% | 0.2% | 1.4% | 8.02 | 4.27 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | 16 | 0 | 21 | 100 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 1.0% | 8.02 | 3.43 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 2 | 62 | 251 | 108 | 28 | 5 | 6% | 2.0 | 33.1% | 12.9% | 20.2% | 2.7% | 2.74 | 3.44 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 2 | 62 | 251 | 108 | 28 | 5 | 6% | 2.0 | 43.0% | 11.2% | 31.9% | 2.0% | 2.74 | 2.03 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 4 levels | 38 | 1 | 43 | 177 | 59 | 21 | 6 | 3% | 1.1 | 28.3% | 12.3% | 16.0% | 5.3% | 4.22 | 5.20 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 4 levels | 38 | 1 | 43 | 177 | 59 | 21 | 6 | 3% | 1.1 | 33.3% | 11.9% | 21.5% | 3.4% | 4.22 | 3.64 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 38 | 0 | 49 | 231 | 60 | 43 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.0% | 20.5% | 0.6% | 2.6% | 4.62 | 5.34 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 38 | 0 | 49 | 231 | 60 | 43 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 26.0% | 18.6% | 7.4% | 2.2% | 4.62 | 4.62 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 51 | 233 | 54 | 27 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 19.6% | 11.4% | 8.2% | 2.3% | 4.56 | 4.15 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 51 | 233 | 54 | 27 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 2.1% | 4.56 | 3.84 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 27 | 0 | 28 | 120 | 27 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 2.9% | 4.53 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 27 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 10 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 0 | 11 | 44 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.17 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 190 | 95 | 19 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.17 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 173 | 11 | 282 | 1224 | 281 | 164 | 32 | 6% | 1.6 | 23.0% | 13.4% | 9.6% | 2.6% | 3.99 | 4.29 | +3.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 123 | 8 | 200 | 869 | 200 | 117 | 23 | 6% | 1.6 | 23.0% | 13.4% | 9.6% | 2.6% | 3.99 | 4.29 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Adrian Hernandez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.53 | 22.4% | 10.7% | 2.9% | — | 4.55 | 22.5% | 11.9% | 28 | +0.02 | — | — | — |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 90 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.75 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 1.9% | .292 | 4.81 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +1.06 | 3.75 | 299 | 89 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 88 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.34 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.2% | .273 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.18 | 3.57 | 187 | 88 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.02 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.56 | 2.69 | 315 | 86 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.80 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 2.9% | .333 | 4.41 | 18.1% | 6.6% | 151 | +0.61 | 3.74 | 185 | 84 |
| Shawn Armstrong R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.11 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.1% | .282 | 3.23 | 26.9% | 17.2% | 144 | -0.88 | 1.79 | 647 | 84 |
| Jack Hartman R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.36 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 3.5% | .310 | 4.40 | 17.6% | 5.6% | 46 | +0.04 | 3.42 | 161 | 84 |
| Jackson Hicks R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.94 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 116 | 84 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.16 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.34 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.18 | 3.78 | 180 | 84 |
| Cale Coshow R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.51 | 23.1% | 10.9% | 3.6% | .300 | 3.61 | 23.0% | 12.8% | 63 | -0.90 | 3.16 | 377 | 83 |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.15 | 3.43 | 187 | 83 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.77 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 2.9% | .242 | 3.56 | 22.5% | 12.4% | 100 | -0.21 | 3.05 | 205 | 83 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.62 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 1.8% | .291 | 6.27 | 19.1% | -8.3% | 16 | +2.65 | 3.05 | 134 | 83 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.46 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .244 | 3.76 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.30 | 3.23 | 253 | 83 |
| Kyle Winkler R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .234 | 3.53 | 18.4% | 8.3% | 43 | -0.07 | 2.96 | 114 | 83 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.51 | 23.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 121 | 83 |
| Hunter Parsons R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.03 | 22.8% | 10.9% | 4.5% | .274 | 6.73 | 25.5% | 9.0% | 29 | +1.70 | 4.95 | 183 | 82 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.57 | 26.5% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .299 | 4.42 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 87 | -0.15 | 3.74 | 163 | 82 |
| Carter Rustad R 2025 · 4.84 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.84 | 19.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 101 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 28 | 22.4% | 10.6% | 1.14 | 4.53 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |