Adrian Hernandez

Adrian Hernandez P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 26 RHP 5'8" / 190 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.93

FIP4.93

K%20.9%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%8.2%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	13	8	55	232	64	21	2	62%	4.3	18.8%	11.3%	7.4%	1.2%	2.60	3.61	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	13	8	55	232	64	21	2	62%	4.3	27.6%	9.1%	18.5%	0.9%	2.60	2.40	—
2019	19	ROK MLE	GCL Blue Jays	16	0	21	100	15	8	1	0%	1.3	10.2%	10.0%	0.2%	1.4%	8.02	4.27	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	GCL Blue Jays	16	0	21	100	15	8	1	0%	1.3	15.0%	8.0%	7.0%	1.0%	8.02	3.43	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	2	62	251	108	28	5	6%	2.0	33.1%	12.9%	20.2%	2.6%	2.74	3.36	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	2	62	251	108	28	5	6%	2.0	43.0%	11.2%	31.9%	2.0%	2.74	2.03	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	38	1	43	177	59	21	6	3%	1.1	28.3%	12.3%	16.0%	5.1%	4.22	5.05	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	38	1	43	177	59	21	6	3%	1.1	33.3%	11.9%	21.5%	3.4%	4.22	3.64	—
2023	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	38	0	49	231	60	43	5	0%	1.3	21.0%	20.5%	0.6%	2.6%	4.62	5.34	—
2023	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	38	0	49	231	60	43	5	0%	1.3	21.0%	20.5%	0.6%	2.6%	4.62	5.34	—
2023	23	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	38	0	49	231	60	43	5	0%	1.3	26.0%	18.6%	7.4%	2.2%	4.62	4.62	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	51	233	54	27	5	0%	1.4	19.6%	11.4%	8.2%	2.6%	4.56	4.31	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	51	233	54	27	5	0%	1.4	19.6%	11.4%	8.2%	2.6%	4.56	4.31	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	51	233	54	27	5	0%	1.4	23.2%	11.6%	11.6%	2.1%	4.56	3.84	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	TOR	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	20.9%	12.7%	8.2%	2.9%	4.93	4.93	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	TOR	43	0	46	192	41	24	6	0%	1.1	21.2%	12.4%	8.8%	3.0%	4.89	4.91	-0.2
2028	28	MLB MLE	TOR	42	0	44	186	39	23	6	0%	1.1	21.2%	12.3%	8.9%	3.1%	4.91	4.95	-0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	TOR	16	0	17	72	15	9	2	0%	1.1	21.2%	12.4%	8.8%	3.0%	4.89	4.91	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	TOR	25	0	26	110	23	14	3	0%	1.0	21.2%	12.3%	8.9%	3.1%	4.91	4.95	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		41	0	43	183	39	23	6	0%	1.1	21.2%	12.4%	8.8%	3.1%	4.90	4.55	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	180	106	28	0%	1.1	21.2%	12.4%	8.8%	3.1%	4.90	4.55	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		173	11	282	1224	281	164	32	6%	1.6	23.0%	13.4%	9.6%	2.6%	3.99	4.28	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		123	8	200	869	200	117	22	6%	1.6	23.0%	13.4%	9.6%	2.6%	3.99	4.28	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adrian Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.93	20.9%	12.7%	2.9%	—	4.93	21.2%	8.8%	90	-0.00	—	—	—
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	299	90
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	88
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	86
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	86
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	86
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	86
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	86
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	85
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	85
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	85
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	84
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	84
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	84
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	84
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	84
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	84
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	84
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	83
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	83
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	39	21.1%	12.5%	1.17	4.91
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82