Colton Cowser

RF Baltimore Orioles

Age 27 L/R 6'3" / 220 lbs MLB HR +9% Svc 2.250S2 · Ctrl thru 2030

Overview

MLB40-MANArb-1FA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	24	MLBBAL	561	.242/.323/.447	24	9	112	2.2
2025	25	MLBBAL	360	.196/.269/.385	16	14	79	0.3
2026	26	MLBBAL	392	.226/.320/.370	13	10	93	0.3
2027PROJ	27	MLBBAL	419	.234/.318/.425	19	12	105	1.3
2028PROJ98% MLB	28	MLBBAL	413	.232/.316/.420	18	10	102	1.1
2029PROJ98% MLB	29	MLBBAL	405	.229/.312/.413	17	8	100	0.8

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.250First FA2031Super-2

2027Arb-1$2M2028Arb-2$3M2029Arb-3$4M2030Arb-4$4M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Chase%90

Barrel%79

Bat Spd79

Whiff%67

Speed66

Avg EV60

Form.219/.306/.381 ▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .229/.311/.413

CompsJack Suwinski (age 26) · Derek Fisher (age 27) · Ryan Noda (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 96105vR 108

AVG/OBP/SLG.234 / .318 / .425

PA419

HR19

SB12

K%31

BB%10

BABIP301

ISO197

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$18M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT40

Whiff%

679.2%

xAVG

110.219

POWER60

Barrel%

7912.5

Avg EV

6089.8

Bat Spd

7974.4

EYE55

Chase%

9019.3%

SPEED50

Sprint

6628.1

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%32%▼33% over 82 PA (60d) · proj 31%

BB%10%·11% over 82 PA (60d) · proj 10%

ISO.162▼.111 over 72 AB (60d) · proj .184

HR/BB5.8%▼2.2% over 46 BBE (60d) · proj 7.3%

BABIP.300▲.378 over 45 BIP (60d) · proj .296

SLASH.219/.306/.381▼proj .229/.311/.413

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 979 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

238

741

—

wRC+

102

▶▶R

wOBA

288

319

▶R

ISO

173

195

▶R

BABIP

285

297

▶R

35.3%

31.6%

▶R

BB%

5.0%

9.4%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.250 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$2M	+1.5	$12M	+$10M
2028	Arb-2	$3M	+1.1	$8M	+$6M
2029	Arb-3	$4M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-4	$4M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$25M	+$15M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	21	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	124	98	34	5	0	1	22	19	3	4	2	347	480	429	908	82	418	15	18	414	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	ROK	FCL Orioles Orange	—	25	22	11	3	0	1	3	4	0	3	2	500	560	773	1.333	273	588	16	12	574	160	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	124	105	23	7	0	5	13	38	6	0	0	219	339	429	767	210	290	31	10	345	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	224	176	60	10	0	10	36	57	9	2	2	341	475	568	1.043	227	446	25	16	453	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	278	229	59	19	2	4	45	79	3	16	1	258	386	410	797	153	374	28	16	361	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	77	61	7	2	0	0	13	22	2	1	0	115	289	148	437	33	175	29	17	229	39	-6	+0	-1	+2	+2	-0.3
2023	23	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	399	323	97	18	1	17	64	107	5	9	3	300	423	520	944	220	390	27	16	410	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	561	499	121	24	3	24	52	172	7	9	4	242	323	447	769	204	317	31	9	339	112	+8	+0	+7	-6	+12	2.2
2025	25	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	360	327	64	14	0	16	27	128	6	14	0	196	269	385	655	190	262	36	8	292	79	-9	+3	+0	+1	+8	0.3
2026	26	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	392	341	77	10	0	13	46	121	1	10	4	226	320	370	689	144	305	31	12	310	93	-3	+0	+2	-4	+8	0.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1390	1228	269	50	3	53	138	443	16	34	8	219	306	394	700	175	292	32	10	313	98	-4	+4	+8	-7	+30	3.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	21	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	124	105	34	4	0	1	15	25	3	4	2	324	423	390	813	67	404	20	12	359	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles Orange	—	25	23	8	2	0	1	2	6	0	3	2	348	400	565	965	217	452	24	8	405	160	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	124	109	21	6	0	4	9	45	6	0	0	193	290	358	648	165	280	36	7	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	224	186	55	8	0	7	26	70	9	2	2	296	407	452	859	156	422	31	12	380	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	278	246	52	16	2	3	28	105	3	16	1	211	300	329	629	118	342	38	10	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	77	61	7	2	0	0	13	22	2	1	0	115	289	148	437	33	175	29	17	226	39	-6	+0	-1	+2	+2	-0.3
2023	23	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	399	340	90	16	1	13	47	131	5	9	3	265	362	432	795	168	367	33	12	346	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	561	501	119	23	3	24	50	172	7	9	4	238	315	439	755	202	317	31	9	333	112	+8	+0	+7	-6	+12	2.2
2025	25	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	360	328	63	14	0	15	26	128	6	14	0	192	264	372	636	180	262	36	7	284	79	-9	+3	+0	+1	+8	0.3
2026	26	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	392	341	75	10	0	12	46	121	1	10	4	220	314	355	669	135	305	31	12	305	93	-3	+0	+2	-4	+8	0.3
2021	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	149	128	42	6	0	2	17	31	3	7	4	328	419	422	841	94	417	21	11	367	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	149	120	45	8	0	2	25	23	3	7	4	375	493	492	985	117	448	15	17	441	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	626	541	128	30	2	14	63	220	18	18	3	237	336	377	713	140	367	35	10	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	626	510	142	36	2	19	94	174	18	18	3	278	408	469	877	190	383	28	15	391	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	476	401	97	18	1	13	60	153	7	10	3	242	350	389	739	147	347	32	13	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	476	384	104	20	1	17	77	129	7	10	3	271	402	461	863	190	355	27	16	381	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	561	501	119	23	3	24	50	172	7	9	4	238	315	439	755	202	308	31	9	333	112	+8	+0	+7	-6	+12	2.2
2024	24	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	—	561	499	121	24	3	24	52	172	7	9	4	242	323	447	769	204	317	31	9	339	112	+8	+0	+7	-6	+12	2.2
2025	25	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	360	328	63	14	0	15	26	128	6	14	0	192	264	372	636	180	259	36	7	284	79	-9	+3	+0	+1	+8	0.3
2025	25	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	—	360	327	64	14	0	16	27	128	6	14	0	196	269	385	655	190	262	36	8	292	79	-9	+3	+0	+1	+8	0.3
2026	26	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	392	341	75	10	0	12	46	121	1	10	4	220	314	355	669	135	299	31	12	305	93	-3	+0	+2	-4	+8	0.3
2026	26	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	—	392	341	77	10	0	13	46	121	1	10	4	226	320	370	689	144	305	31	12	310	93	-3	+0	+2	-4	+8	0.3
2021	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	149	128	42	6	0	2	17	31	3	7	4	328	419	422	841	94	412	21	11	367	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	626	540	128	30	2	14	63	220	18	18	3	237	336	378	714	141	358	35	10	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	476	406	97	18	1	13	60	153	7	10	3	239	350	384	735	145	336	32	13	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	561	499	119	23	3	24	50	172	7	9	4	238	315	441	756	202	317	31	9	333	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	360	325	63	14	0	15	26	128	6	14	0	194	264	375	639	182	262	36	7	284	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	392	342	75	10	0	12	46	121	1	10	4	219	314	354	668	135	305	31	12	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	24	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	561	499	119	23	3	24	50	172	7	9	4	238	315	441	756	202	317	31	9	333	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	360	325	63	14	0	15	26	128	6	14	0	194	264	375	639	182	262	36	7	284	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	392	342	75	10	0	12	46	121	1	10	4	219	314	354	668	135	305	31	12	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	27	MLB MLE	BAL	100%	419	370	85	13	1	18	42	129	4	12	3	229	314	413	727	184	296	31	10	323	105	+2	+1	+4	-4	+9	1.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	27	MLB CTX	BAL	100%	419	370	88	14	1	19	42	129	4	12	3	234	318	425	743	192	301	31	10	329	105	+2	+1	+4	-4	+9	1.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	BAL	98%	421	373	85	13	1	18	42	131	3	10	2	227	311	408	720	181	295	31	10	320	102	+1	+1	+4	-5	+9	1.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	BAL	98%	413	366	82	13	0	17	41	129	3	8	2	224	308	401	709	177	292	31	10	316	100	-0	+1	+3	-4	+9	0.8
2030	30	MLB MLE	BAL	98%	407	361	79	12	0	16	40	129	3	6	2	220	304	391	696	171	289	32	10	310	96	-2	+0	+2	-4	+9	0.5
2031	31	MLB MLE	BAL	98%	392	348	74	11	0	15	38	126	3	3	1	215	298	380	678	164	284	32	10	303	91	-4	+0	+1	-4	+8	0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	BAL	98%	413	366	85	13	1	18	41	128	3	10	2	232	316	420	735	188	299	31	10	326	102	+1	+1	+4	-4	+9	1.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	BAL	98%	405	359	81	13	0	17	40	127	3	8	2	229	312	413	725	184	297	31	10	322	100	-0	+1	+3	-4	+9	0.8
2030	30	MLB CTX	BAL	98%	399	354	79	12	0	17	39	126	3	6	2	225	308	403	711	178	294	32	10	316	96	-2	+0	+2	-4	+9	0.5
2031	31	MLB CTX	BAL	98%	384	340	75	11	0	16	38	123	3	3	1	219	302	391	693	171	288	32	10	309	91	-4	+0	+1	-4	+8	0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2991	2647	589	99	4	121	296	947	28	61	15	223	307	400	707	178	294	32	10	316	100	-8	+6	+17	-24	+65	5.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	575	128	22	1	26	64	206	6	13	3	223	307	400	707	177	295	32	10	316	100	-2	+1	+4	-5	+14	1.2
Career	—	MLE		—	4616	4058	929	163	8	164	465	1469	58	107	28	229	317	394	711	165	312	32	10	317	100	-6	+7	+21	-29	+75	6.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	571	131	23	1	23	65	207	8	15	4	229	316	394	710	165	313	32	10	317	100	-1	+1	+4	-6	+14	1.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Tucker'95-'06 * career totals — 12 seasons, 4,686 PA	7.1	4,686	125	114	246*	326*	410*	-44	+9	9.4	9.1
/162	664	18	16	-6.3	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 9
#2Willie Kirkland'58-'66 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,882 PA	5.8	3,882	148	52	237*	302*	437*	-37	-0	8.1	8.5
/162	664	25	9	-6.3	-0.1	1.4	pk7: 9
#3Franklin Stubbs'84-'95 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,899 PA	4.4	2,899	104	74	229*	301*	428*	-43	+18	6.0	6.2
/162	664	24	17	-9.8	+4.2	1.4	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	5.1	3,409	136	73	223	305	399	-37	+15	5.5	5.7
/162	664	26	14	-7.1	+2.9	1.1	pk7: 6
#4Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#5Dustan Mohr'01-'07 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,537 PA	2.3	1,537	49	13	241*	315*	412*	-15	+20	3.8	3.8
/162	664	21	6	-6.6	+8.6	1.6	pk7: 4
#6Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	2.6	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
/162	664	23	9	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Colton Cowser (OGILVIE)	27	40	60	50	55	227/311/410	183	296	18	12	31%	10%	105	+1.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jack Suwinski 2024 · MLB	26	41→43	60	49→50	51	221/316/435	214	289	28	11	33%	11%	112	+2.2	206/288/377	171	276	21	14	32%	9%	88	+0.4	197/274/349	152	263	19	14	31%	8%	75	-0.4
✕Derek Fisher 2021 · MLB	27	44→52	54→55	51→55	48	224/311/401	176	315	22	15	34%	11%	101	+1.4	205/275/337	132	301	14	8	34%	8%	73	-0.6	118/191/219	101	184	12	0	42%	7%	13	-0.9
●Ryan Noda 2023 · AAA	27	42→49	54→55	50	47	216/310/390	174	298	22	13	34%	10%	99	+1.3	204/324/370	166	299	20	8	35%	13%	100	+1.3	183/321/343	159	273	19	6	36%	15%	93	+0.6
✕Taylor Trammell 2024 · MLB	26	43→48	53→55	50→55	49	221/307/396	175	292	21	17	31%	10%	99	+1.2	211/301/376	165	285	19	18	31%	10%	93	+0.8	195/291/359	164	260	19	18	31%	11%	84	+0.1
✕Jabari Blash 2016 · AAA	27	39→41	58→60	48→50	44	214/293/415	202	277	26	9	32%	8%	99	+1.2	210/311/399	189	307	24	7	36%	11%	101	+1.4	197/311/390	192	295	25	6	38%	12%	98	+0.8
✕Brandon Allen 2012 · MLB	26	44→49	55	50	49	230/314/419	190	296	22	10	29%	10%	107	+1.8	221/289/385	164	284	19	7	28%	8%	89	+0.5	213/277/360	147	265	17	4	26%	8%	77	-0.2
✕Jake Fraley 2022 · MLB	27	46→47	53→55	53→55	54	234/331/406	171	301	20	21	28%	12%	109	+2.0	250/332/409	159	301	19	21	22%	10%	111	+2.1	258/330/406	148	303	17	26	20%	9%	109	+1.2
✕J.J. Matijevic 2023 · MLB	27	44→42	55	52→50	42	229/290/415	186	309	23	12	33%	7%	97	+1.1	224/285/384	160	302	17	11	30%	7%	87	+0.4	210/273/367	157	281	15	8	30%	7%	75	-0.4
✕DJ Stewart 2021 · MLB	27	43→49	54→60	44→50	52	226/313/409	183	270	22	8	25%	10%	104	+1.6	220/321/400	180	275	23	5	28%	11%	105	+1.7	206/311/393	187	248	26	2	28%	11%	100	+0.6
✕Sean Bouchard 2023 · MLB	27	46→48	54→55	53→50	50	233/316/425	192	301	20	13	28%	10%	109	+2.0	224/311/389	165	306	17	15	30%	10%	98	+1.2	197/290/337	140	285	14	16	33%	10%	78	-0.1
✕Daulton Varsho 2023 · MLB	27	43→50	58→60	51→50	48	234/300/439	205	265	27	14	24%	8%	106	+1.8	223/289/419	196	262	24	13	25%	8%	97	+1.1	215/282/416	201	251	25	12	26%	8%	95	+0.7
✕Michael Hermosillo 2022 · MLB	27	46→49	54→55	50→55	43	231/324/417	186	318	22	15	32%	8%	111	+2.1	213/296/368	155	283	18	15	30%	7%	89	+0.5	169/233/310	141	197	22	17	28%	4%	51	-0.9
✕David Villar 2024 · MLB	27	42→44	56→60	46→40	47	223/308/415	192	286	25	5	30%	9%	104	+1.6	219/296/353	134	293	15	5	29%	9%	84	+0.2	211/289/324	113	284	13	2	29%	9%	74	-0.4
✕Casper Wells 2012 · MLB	27	44	57→60	44→50	42	231/296/435	204	293	24	8	30%	7%	104	+1.6	216/288/368	152	280	16	7	27%	8%	85	+0.2	204/285/349	145	259	14	5	26%	9%	80	-0.1
✕Josh VanMeter 2022 · MLB	27	45→50	54→55	48→50	53	232/319/414	183	285	21	10	26%	11%	107	+1.9	201/299/333	132	263	14	9	27%	12%	82	-0.0	166/277/265	100	221	10	9	28%	13%	58	-0.6
✕Brian O'Grady 2021 · MLB	29	43→38	57→60	52→50	40	227/284/423	196	297	25	16	32%	6%	97	+1.1	214/281/373	159	294	17	14	31%	8%	84	+0.1	191/264/352	161	259	16	13	32%	8%	72	-0.5
✕Jason Martin 2024 · MLB	28	45→52	56→60	47→50	46	237/300/428	191	296	24	9	28%	8%	103	+1.6	234/293/397	163	299	19	10	27%	7%	93	+0.8	224/284/390	166	279	20	8	27%	7%	86	+0.2
✕John Rodriguez 2006 · MLB	28	47	56→55	52→40	44	248/312/442	194	299	25	9	26%	7%	112	+2.2	243/316/405	162	306	17	5	25%	8%	104	+1.6	236/316/384	148	302	15	1	25%	8%	97	+0.5
✕Davis Schneider 2024 · MLB	25	44→45	56→55	51→50	53	228/330/428	200	300	23	11	30%	12%	115	+2.4	209/318/382	173	278	20	9	30%	13%	100	+1.3	187/312/348	161	246	20	8	30%	14%	91	+0.4
✕James Outman 2024 · MLB	27	49→52	55→60	54→50	48	242/331/434	192	338	23	15	33%	10%	116	+2.5	213/295/389	176	306	21	15	35%	9%	93	+0.8	191/271/361	170	278	20	16	37%	8%	77	-0.2

Colton Cowser

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps