Kevin Graham — OGILVIE

Kevin GrahamOF Reno Aces

Age 27 L/R 6'1" / 195 lbs AAA HR -11% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 0 ros · stats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†69

AVG/OBP/SLG.215 / .281 / .334

PA17

HR0

K%29

BB%6

BABIP294

ISO62

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	22	A	Visalia Rawhide	—	106	94	23	2	1	5	11	21	0	0	1	245	324	447	771	202	261	20	10	338	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+	Hillsboro Hops	—	256	226	57	11	3	2	24	63	3	7	4	252	332	354	686	102	335	25	9	309	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	ROK	ACL D-backs Black	—	19	15	6	2	0	0	4	3	0	0	0	400	526	533	1.060	133	500	16	21	473	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	347	310	66	16	2	5	32	106	3	6	0	213	293	326	619	113	305	31	9	281	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA	Reno Aces	—	86	73	10	2	0	1	10	25	1	1	0	137	250	205	455	68	184	29	12	217	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	60	57	10	3	0	1	3	21	0	0	0	175	217	281	497	105	257	35	5	224	-13	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	22	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	106	98	20	2	1	4	7	29	0	0	1	204	257	367	624	163	234	27	7	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	—	256	234	49	9	3	2	16	86	3	7	4	209	269	299	568	90	303	34	6	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Black	—	19	17	4	1	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	235	316	294	610	59	362	21	11	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	347	321	60	14	2	3	21	127	3	6	0	187	243	271	515	84	290	37	6	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	86	76	10	2	0	1	7	29	1	1	0	132	214	197	412	66	173	34	8	184	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	60	58	8	2	0	1	2	26	0	0	0	138	167	224	391	86	211	43	3	149	-13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	106	98	20	2	1	4	7	29	0	0	1	204	257	367	624	163	242	27	7	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	—	106	94	23	2	1	5	11	21	0	0	1	245	324	447	771	202	261	20	10	338	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	275	251	53	10	3	2	18	90	3	7	4	211	272	299	571	88	315	33	7	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	275	241	63	13	3	2	28	66	3	7	4	261	346	365	711	104	347	24	10	321	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	347	321	60	14	2	3	21	127	3	6	0	187	243	271	515	84	297	37	6	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	347	310	66	16	2	5	32	106	3	6	0	213	293	326	619	113	305	31	9	281	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	146	134	17	4	0	1	9	56	1	1	0	127	188	179	367	52	203	38	6	170	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	146	130	20	5	0	2	13	46	1	1	0	154	236	238	475	85	214	32	9	220	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	106	98	20	2	1	4	7	29	0	0	1	204	257	367	624	163	234	27	7	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	275	252	53	10	3	2	18	90	3	7	4	210	272	298	570	87	307	33	7	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	347	320	60	14	2	3	21	127	3	6	0	188	243	272	515	84	290	37	6	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	146	135	17	4	0	1	9	56	1	1	0	126	188	178	365	52	189	38	6	170	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	24	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	347	320	60	14	2	3	21	127	3	6	0	188	243	272	515	84	290	37	6	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	146	135	17	4	0	1	9	56	1	1	0	126	188	178	365	52	189	38	6	170	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	27	MLB MLE	ARI	10%	200	181	39	8	1	4	15	59	2	3	1	209	275	324	599	115	283	30	8	270	69	-7	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	27	MLB CTX	ARI	10%	17	16	3	1	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	215	281	334	615	119	294	29	6	277	69	-1	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	ARI	31%	259	236	49	10	1	5	19	76	2	3	1	209	275	323	598	114	283	29	7	270	69	-10	+0	-1	-2	+6	-0.6
2028	28	MLB CTX	ARI	31%	80	73	14	3	0	1	6	23	1	1	0	215	281	334	614	118	293	29	8	276	69	-3	+0	-0	-0	+2	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	80	73	14	3	0	1	6	23	1	1	0	192	263	274	536	82	265	29	8	276	50	-3	+0	-0	-0	+2	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	593	113	24	0	8	49	187	8	8	0	191	262	272	533	81	264	29	8	276	50	-24	+2	-2	-4	+14	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		—	1303	1193	232	47	8	18	87	428	11	20	7	194	256	293	548	98	283	33	7	243	50	-16	+0	-1	-3	+9	-1.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	595	115	23	4	9	43	214	5	10	3	193	253	291	543	97	282	33	7	243	50	-24	+1	-1	-4	+14	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kevin Graham (OGILVIE)	27	—	—	—	—	207/273/321	114	283	3	3	29%	7%	69	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jackson Cluff 2024 · AA	27	36→30	41→45	51→60	43	178/259/280	102	271	8	15	35%	8%	55	-2.0	185/267/304	119	276	12	25	35%	9%	63	-1.3	167/253/282	115	245	12	32	35%	9%	51	-1.2
✕Mark Contreras 2022 · AAA	27	39	48→50	50→55	38	199/265/343	144	291	15	15	36%	6%	72	-0.7	200/262/324	124	290	14	24	34%	6%	65	-1.2	188/253/294	106	272	12	30	34%	6%	52	-1.5
✕Connor Hoover 2023 · AA	27	33→29	46→45	50	44	177/252/305	128	250	14	12	34%	9%	57	-1.8	191/267/316	125	270	14	12	33%	8%	65	-1.2	158/246/282	125	211	17	12	33%	9%	49	-1.2
✕Patrick Dorrian 2023 · AAA	27	37→38	48→50	48→45	42	193/264/333	141	287	16	6	37%	8%	68	-1.0	193/257/322	129	289	15	7	37%	7%	63	-1.4	176/241/298	122	260	15	5	37%	7%	49	-1.4
✕Justin Toerner 2023 · AAA	26	40	42→40	48→50	45	193/287/295	103	289	10	10	34%	9%	70	-0.9	192/283/307	115	279	12	11	33%	10%	70	-0.8	124/235/230	107	167	13	9	33%	11%	35	-1.2
✕Andrés Alvarez 2024 · AA	27	37→32	45	51→50	42	191/256/309	118	267	13	13	33%	7%	59	-1.6	214/278/326	112	303	11	11	31%	7%	71	-0.8	220/290/326	106	314	9	12	31%	8%	72	-0.3
✕Ryan Aguilar 2022 · AA	27	36→40	42→45	51→50	41	175/259/268	94	291	11	13	41%	9%	53	-2.1	205/294/329	124	325	13	13	37%	10%	79	-0.2	214/314/364	150	322	16	13	35%	11%	91	+0.4
✕Morgan McCullough 2024 · AAA	26	42	44→45	49→50	44	204/285/323	119	291	11	12	32%	8%	74	-0.5	208/286/330	122	294	11	15	31%	9%	76	-0.4	175/268/298	123	241	12	20	30%	10%	61	-0.5
✕Joe DeCarlo 2021 · AA	27	40→38	42→50	47→30	40	197/265/297	100	289	10	5	34%	7%	60	-1.6	200/259/291	91	299	9	7	34%	7%	56	-1.9	160/219/212	52	241	7	0	35%	7%	21	-1.4
✕Adam Calderone 2011 · AAA	27	40→41	47→50	45	39	206/251/349	143	262	14	9	28%	5%	66	-1.1	205/251/330	125	268	12	12	27%	5%	61	-1.5	162/194/257	95	204	5	16	23%	4%	20	-1.0
✕Grae Kessinger 2024 · MLB	26	40→30	45	46→50	48	204/282/322	118	264	14	13	28%	9%	73	-0.6	200/274/299	99	273	9	11	28%	9%	64	-1.3	159/229/234	75	220	6	10	29%	7%	30	-1.6
✕Jake Lowery 2017 · AA	27	37	42→45	47→30	44	185/253/290	105	260	9	5	32%	8%	54	-2.0	194/264/295	101	308	9	6	37%	9%	59	-1.6	125/202/184	59	253	4	0	48%	9%	10	-1.2
✕Jameson Fisher 2021 · AA	27	39→36	40	44→45	42	188/257/280	92	287	8	6	35%	8%	53	-2.1	216/270/329	113	305	11	6	31%	6%	69	-0.9	229/278/357	129	302	14	2	28%	6%	74	-0.3
✕Shane Matheny 2023 · AAA	27	43→42	45	50	43	205/283/326	121	326	14	6	39%	9%	74	-0.6	205/288/326	121	310	12	11	35%	10%	76	-0.4	191/283/310	119	284	11	12	34%	11%	68	-0.6
✕Cole Cummings 2024 · AA	26	39→37	47→45	48→45	43	198/277/328	130	276	15	5	32%	8%	72	-0.7	193/260/301	108	308	11	8	38%	7%	59	-1.6	167/236/260	93	283	9	9	41%	7%	40	-2.6
✕Josh Lester 2021 · AAA	27	40→44	47→55	47→40	42	206/260/337	131	267	15	3	28%	6%	68	-1.0	204/251/378	174	262	22	5	31%	5%	74	-0.6	195/241/366	171	246	22	4	31%	5%	65	-1.0
✕Ben Rortvedt 2024 · MLB	26	40	47→45	48→40	45	204/280/337	132	279	16	5	32%	8%	76	-0.4	208/285/307	99	283	10	5	28%	9%	70	-0.8	197/273/278	81	269	8	3	28%	8%	59	-0.8
✕Preston Beck 2018 · AAA	27	44→42	40→45	48→45	45	215/267/312	97	264	7	7	21%	6%	63	-1.3	211/264/316	105	271	9	4	25%	6%	63	-1.3	203/258/308	105	261	10	1	25%	6%	57	-1.5
✕Tristan Gray 2022 · AAA	26	42→36	47→50	42→40	42	214/275/350	136	287	14	5	30%	7%	76	-0.4	189/242/343	154	266	20	4	36%	5%	63	-1.4	197/252/324	127	261	14	3	29%	6%	61	-1.0
✕Caleb Hamilton 2022 · AAA	27	36	44→45	47→45	44	181/259/292	111	272	12	9	36%	9%	57	-1.8	177/261/302	125	271	15	6	38%	10%	61	-1.5	140/232/254	115	204	16	3	39%	10%	37	-1.0