Joander Suarez
P
Syracuse Mets
+1.4
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'3" / 223 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.2 · 2026
ERA4.28
FIP4.28
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.2%
BB%7.1%
K-BB%14.1%
IP103
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.2peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Mets 1 | 8 | 4 | 21 | 83 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 15.6% | 7.5% | 0.0% | 4.35 | 2.74 | +0.5 |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | GCL Mets | 11 | 8 | 40 | 160 | 47 | 16 | 1 | 20.0% | 12.5% | 0.9% | 1.79 | 3.48 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 21 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 6 | 6 | 25 | 118 | 26 | 16 | 3 | 16.3% | 16.0% | 3.4% | 7.66 | 5.59 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 22 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 10 | 5 | 21 | 103 | 25 | 9 | 2 | 17.8% | 13.1% | 0.0% | 5.48 | 3.26 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 24 | 22 | 108 | 462 | 137 | 49 | 6 | 23.0% | 12.2% | 1.5% | 4.24 | 3.54 | +2.2 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 25 | 23 | 128 | 525 | 124 | 30 | 17 | 19.8% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 4.49 | 4.24 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 23 | 18 | 93 | 376 | 93 | 17 | 10 | 20.2% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 3.76 | 3.72 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 3 | 2 | 9 | 49 | 12 | 9 | 4 | — | — | — | 13.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | NYM | 19 | 19 | 103 | 433 | 92 | 31 | 13 | 21.2% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 4.28 | 4.28 | +1.2 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 112 | 482 | 104 | 40 | 17 | 21.5% | 8.3% | 3.6% | 4.98 | 3.93 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 19 | 19 | 106 | 447 | 95 | 32 | 14 | 21.3% | 7.2% | 3.1% | 4.28 | 4.29 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 19 | 19 | 106 | 448 | 95 | 33 | 14 | 21.3% | 7.3% | 3.1% | 4.30 | 4.31 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 19 | 19 | 104 | 438 | 93 | 32 | 14 | 21.2% | 7.4% | 3.1% | 4.33 | 4.35 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 18 | 18 | 101 | 425 | 89 | 32 | 14 | 21.0% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 4.38 | 4.41 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 18 | 18 | 97 | 410 | 85 | 31 | 13 | 20.8% | 7.6% | 3.3% | 4.45 | 4.49 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 17 | 17 | 93 | 394 | 81 | 31 | 13 | 20.5% | 7.8% | 3.4% | 4.52 | 4.57 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 16 | 16 | 89 | 376 | 76 | 30 | 13 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 4.61 | 4.67 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 15 | 15 | 85 | 357 | 71 | 29 | 13 | 19.8% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 4.71 | 4.78 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 14 | 14 | 80 | 337 | 72 | 25 | 12 | 21.4% | 7.6% | 3.7% | 4.66 | 4.63 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | NYM | 14 | 14 | 74 | 315 | 66 | 25 | 12 | 21.0% | 7.8% | 3.8% | 4.72 | 4.77 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 37 | MLB | NYM | 13 | 13 | 69 | 292 | 60 | 24 | 11 | 20.6% | 8.1% | 3.9% | 4.83 | 4.91 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 110 | 88 | 446 | 1876 | 381 | 177 | 47 | 20.3% | 9.4% | 2.5% | 4.42 | 3.96 | +6.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 39 | 200 | 841 | 171 | 79 | 21 | 20.3% | 9.4% | 2.5% | 4.42 | 3.96 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joander Suarez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.28 | 21.2% | 7.1% | 3.1% | — | 4.32 | 21.2% | 14.0% | 316 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Andy Ferguson R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.65 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.1% | .262 | 3.09 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.56 | 3.09 | 137 | 94 |
| Alex Colomé R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.29 | 19.3% | 5.9% | 1.9% | .309 | 2.86 | 25.5% | 19.3% | 191 | -0.43 | 2.61 | 530 | 89 |
| Brett Sears R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 87 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.94 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .324 | 3.78 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 135 | -0.16 | 3.62 | 224 | 87 |
| Mat Latos R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.55 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.5% | .306 | 5.15 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.60 | 3.55 | 244 | 86 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 85 |
| John Holobetz R 2023 · 3.37 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.37 | 18.5% | 4.6% | 2.3% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 125 | 82 |
| Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.21 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 194 | 82 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .286 | 4.13 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.24 | 3.89 | 248 | 81 |
| Jason Forjet R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.48 | 15.9% | 5.5% | 3.7% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 197 | 81 |
| Heath Holder R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.24 | 21.9% | 7.5% | 1.9% | .263 | 5.58 | 19.8% | 4.9% | 85 | +2.34 | 2.92 | 367 | 81 |
| Parker Curry R 2025 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.73 | 17.8% | 5.4% | 4.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 256 | 80 |
| Ian Gardeck R 2024 · 2.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 2.93 | 22.4% | 7.7% | 1.4% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.93 | 105 | 80 |
| Mason Adams R 2024 · 3.76 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.76 | 18.2% | 6.2% | 2.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 229 | 80 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.50 | 22.7% | 8.4% | 2.3% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 368 | 80 |
| Joe Wieland R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.28 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 270 | 80 |
| Mark Leiter Jr. R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.14 | 22.6% | 6.8% | 3.8% | .277 | 4.79 | 19.4% | 10.8% | 52 | +0.65 | 2.97 | 794 | 80 |
| Ariel Peña R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.79 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.90 | 19.9% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.11 | 3.79 | 223 | 79 |
| Richard Rodríguez R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.38 | 21.4% | 6.9% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.40 | 26.2% | 19.8% | 205 | +0.02 | 2.19 | 545 | 79 |
| Garrett Edwards R 2023 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.86 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 107 | 79 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.2 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.9 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.3M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.5 | $2M | -$1M |
| Totals | $11M | $39M | +$28M | ||