Joander Suarez
P
Binghamton Rumble Ponies
Age 26
RHP
6'3" / 223 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 0.9 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION24 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113104vR 95
ERA4.14
FIP4.14
K%20.2%
BB%4.8%
K-BB%15.4%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 89 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Mets 1 | 8 | 4 | 21 | 83 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 50% | 2.6 | 15.6% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 0.0% | 4.35 | 2.74 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Mets 1 | 8 | 4 | 21 | 83 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 50% | 2.6 | 22.9% | 6.0% | 16.9% | 0.0% | 4.35 | 1.99 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | GCL Mets | 11 | 8 | 40 | 160 | 47 | 16 | 1 | 73% | 3.7 | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% | 0.9% | 1.79 | 3.48 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | GCL Mets | 11 | 8 | 40 | 160 | 47 | 16 | 1 | 73% | 3.7 | 29.4% | 10.0% | 19.4% | 0.6% | 1.79 | 2.28 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 6 | 6 | 25 | 118 | 26 | 16 | 3 | 100% | 4.1 | 16.3% | 16.0% | 0.3% | 3.4% | 7.66 | 5.61 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 6 | 6 | 25 | 118 | 26 | 16 | 3 | 100% | 4.1 | 22.0% | 13.6% | 8.5% | 2.5% | 7.66 | 4.52 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 5 | 21 | 103 | 25 | 9 | 2 | 50% | 2.1 | 17.8% | 13.1% | 4.7% | 0.0% | 5.48 | 3.26 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 5 | 21 | 103 | 25 | 9 | 2 | 50% | 2.1 | 24.3% | 8.7% | 15.5% | 1.9% | 5.48 | 3.24 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 22 | 108 | 462 | 137 | 49 | 6 | 92% | 4.5 | 23.0% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 1.5% | 4.24 | 3.50 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 22 | 108 | 462 | 137 | 49 | 6 | 92% | 4.5 | 29.7% | 10.6% | 19.0% | 1.3% | 4.24 | 2.65 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 23 | 128 | 525 | 124 | 30 | 17 | 92% | 5.1 | 19.8% | 6.6% | 13.2% | 4.5% | 4.49 | 4.72 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 23 | 128 | 525 | 124 | 30 | 17 | 92% | 5.1 | 23.6% | 5.7% | 17.9% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 3.59 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 18 | 93 | 376 | 93 | 17 | 10 | 78% | 4.1 | 20.2% | 4.9% | 15.3% | 3.0% | 3.76 | 3.69 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 18 | 93 | 376 | 93 | 17 | 10 | 78% | 4.1 | 24.7% | 4.5% | 20.2% | 2.7% | 3.76 | 3.05 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 6 | 5 | 24 | 116 | 24 | 17 | 4 | 83% | 4.1 | 14.5% | 13.1% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 7.03 | 3.54 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | NYM | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 55 | 13 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.2% | 4.8% | 15.4% | 3.2% | 4.14 | 4.14 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | NYM | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 4.8% | 15.4% | 3.2% | 4.14 | 4.14 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 89 | 390 | 79 | 30 | 13 | — | — | 20.4% | 7.7% | 12.6% | 3.3% | 4.93 | 3.98 | +1.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 20.2% | 4.8% | 15.4% | 3.2% | 4.14 | 3.75 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 24 | 24 | 146 | 617 | 126 | 32 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.4% | 5.2% | 15.2% | 3.2% | 4.17 | 4.18 | +2.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 24 | 24 | 142 | 598 | 122 | 33 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.4% | 5.5% | 14.9% | 3.3% | 4.23 | 4.27 | +1.9 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 23 | 23 | 135 | 571 | 116 | 33 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.2% | 5.8% | 14.4% | 3.4% | 4.33 | 4.40 | +1.6 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 21 | 21 | 127 | 537 | 107 | 33 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.9% | 6.2% | 13.7% | 3.6% | 4.48 | 4.57 | +1.2 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 20 | 20 | 119 | 501 | 98 | 33 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 13.0% | 3.9% | 4.66 | 4.78 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 18 | 18 | 110 | 463 | 88 | 32 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.1% | 6.9% | 12.1% | 4.1% | 4.87 | 5.00 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 17 | 17 | 101 | 425 | 79 | 31 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.6% | 7.4% | 11.2% | 4.4% | 5.10 | 5.25 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 15 | 15 | 92 | 386 | 70 | 30 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.0% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 4.7% | 5.36 | 5.53 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 47 | 12 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.4% | 5.2% | 15.2% | 3.2% | 4.17 | 4.18 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 14 | 14 | 84 | 355 | 72 | 20 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.4% | 5.5% | 14.9% | 3.3% | 4.23 | 4.27 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 16 | 16 | 96 | 405 | 82 | 24 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.2% | 5.8% | 14.4% | 3.4% | 4.33 | 4.40 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 17 | 17 | 100 | 422 | 84 | 26 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.9% | 6.2% | 13.7% | 3.6% | 4.48 | 4.57 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 16 | 16 | 99 | 418 | 82 | 27 | 16 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 13.0% | 3.8% | 4.65 | 4.77 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 16 | 16 | 96 | 405 | 77 | 28 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.1% | 6.9% | 12.1% | 4.1% | 4.86 | 4.99 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 15 | 15 | 90 | 380 | 71 | 28 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.6% | 7.4% | 11.2% | 4.4% | 5.09 | 5.24 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 13 | 13 | 78 | 329 | 59 | 26 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.0% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 4.7% | 5.35 | 5.52 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 117 | 117 | 699 | 2951 | 575 | 191 | 113 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 13.0% | 3.8% | 4.66 | 4.38 | +8.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 165 | 55 | 32 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 13.0% | 3.8% | 4.66 | 4.38 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 113 | 91 | 461 | 1943 | 386 | 183 | 47 | 81% | 4.1 | 19.8% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 2.4% | 4.39 | 3.95 | +7.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 39 | 200 | 842 | 167 | 79 | 20 | 81% | 4.1 | 19.8% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 2.4% | 4.39 | 3.95 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joander Suarez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.14 | 20.2% | 4.8% | 3.2% | — | 4.28 | 20.3% | 14.8% | 423 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| Andy Ferguson R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.57 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.0% | .262 | 3.13 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.44 | 3.13 | 137 | 82 |
| Deck McGuire R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.81 | 18.2% | 6.2% | 2.6% | .301 | 4.45 | 18.9% | 9.2% | 411 | +0.64 | 3.23 | 622 | 80 |
| Mat Latos R 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.68 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 5.21 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.53 | 3.68 | 244 | 79 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.52 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 1.8% | .286 | 4.03 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.51 | 3.52 | 248 | 77 |
| Mitch Spence R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.09 | 19.4% | 6.8% | 3.2% | .315 | 4.80 | 17.3% | 9.7% | 188 | +0.71 | 4.09 | 738 | 77 |
| Jack Cushing R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.15 | 19.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | .315 | 4.26 | 19.6% | 11.5% | 156 | -0.89 | 3.67 | 523 | 76 |
| David Hale R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .343 | 4.35 | 13.8% | 8.1% | 251 | +0.40 | 3.26 | 493 | 75 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2027 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 4.90 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.46 | 4.44 | 200 | 74 |
| Brad Peacock R 2028 · 3.89 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.9% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .302 | 3.31 | 29.4% | 20.4% | 289 | -0.58 | 2.88 | 533 | 74 |
| Joe Wieland R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.50 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 270 | 74 |
| Matt Andriese R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.44 | 22.1% | 4.7% | 2.9% | .309 | 4.13 | 22.7% | 15.9% | 235 | +0.69 | 3.10 | 744 | 73 |
| Logan Workman R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.73 | 21.5% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.96 | 22.7% | 9.8% | 65 | +1.23 | 3.73 | 540 | 72 |
| Forrest Snow R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.80 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 3.7% | .263 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 256 | -0.61 | 3.14 | 406 | 72 |
| Michael Brady R 2028 · 3.12 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.12 | 18.9% | 2.5% | 2.4% | .326 | 3.43 | 18.0% | 14.6% | 214 | +0.31 | 2.80 | 333 | 72 |
| Garrett Burhenn R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.21 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 3.1% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 433 | 72 |
| Ivan Pineyro R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.57 | 16.8% | 6.2% | 3.8% | .356 | 4.38 | 13.4% | 5.2% | 45 | -0.19 | 3.55 | 422 | 72 |
| Josh DeGraaf R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.58 | 17.2% | 7.1% | 3.7% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 320 | 72 |
| Nick Kingham R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.38 | 20.0% | 6.6% | 3.9% | .274 | 5.11 | 17.8% | 8.5% | 56 | +0.73 | 2.31 | 363 | 72 |
| David Phelps R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.83 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.11 | 2.51 | 373 | 71 |
| Tyler Cravy R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.08 | 17.0% | 9.0% | 2.3% | .305 | 4.72 | 18.6% | 7.8% | 138 | +0.64 | 4.01 | 276 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 9 | 124 | 19.7% | 6.1% | 1.42 | 4.53 |
| Marco Gonzales ('24) | 8 | 111 | 17.5% | 6.1% | 1.26 | 4.13 |
| Michael Pineda ('22) | 7 | 109 | 22.9% | 5.0% | 1.43 | 4.35 |
| Matt Harvey ('21) | 6 | 120 | 19.2% | 6.8% | 1.33 | 4.98 |
| J.A. Happ ('21) | 7 | 150 | 21.6% | 7.1% | 1.32 | 4.03 |
| Aníbal Sánchez ('22) | 7 | 120 | 20.4% | 7.8% | 1.56 | 4.80 |
| Dylan Bundy ('22) | 7 | 130 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 1.61 | 4.75 |