Joander Suarez

P Binghamton Rumble Ponies

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 223 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP40OGV rank#376ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	25	23	128	4.49	3.59	23.6%	5.7%	—	K 19.8% · BB 6.6% · FIP 4.23
2025	25	MIX2 levels	23	18	93	3.76	3.05	24.7%	4.5%	—	K 20.2% · BB 4.8% · FIP 3.69
2026	26	MIX2 levels	6	5	24	7.03	5.36	20.7%	14.7%	—	K 14.5% · BB 13.1% · FIP 3.54
2027PROJ	27	MLBNYM	1	1	3	4.15	4.15	19.1%	5.5%	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBNYM	8	8	47	4.21	4.24	19.3%	5.9%	0.6
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBNYM	10	10	62	4.31	4.37	19.2%	6.2%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control65Command60

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsPatrick Johnson (age 27) · Jared Mortensen (age 27) · Shawn Haviland (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.15

FIP4.15

K%19.1%

BB%5.5%

K-BB%13.6%

Proj IP148

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 148 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL6565

CMD6060

K†4545

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets 1	8	4	21	83	19	5	0	50%	2.6	15.6%	7.5%	8.0%	0.0%	4.35	2.74	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mets 1	8	4	21	83	19	5	0	50%	2.6	22.9%	6.0%	16.9%	0.0%	4.35	1.99	—
2019	19	ROK MLE	GCL Mets	11	8	40	160	47	16	1	73%	3.7	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%	0.9%	1.79	3.48	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	GCL Mets	11	8	40	160	47	16	1	73%	3.7	29.4%	10.0%	19.4%	0.6%	1.79	2.28	—
2021	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	6	6	25	118	26	16	3	100%	4.1	16.3%	16.0%	0.3%	3.3%	7.66	5.59	—
2021	21	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	6	6	25	118	26	16	3	100%	4.1	22.0%	13.6%	8.5%	2.5%	7.66	4.52	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	5	21	103	25	9	2	50%	2.1	17.8%	13.1%	4.7%	0.0%	5.48	3.26	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	5	21	103	25	9	2	50%	2.1	24.3%	8.7%	15.5%	1.9%	5.48	3.24	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	22	108	462	137	49	6	92%	4.5	23.0%	12.2%	10.8%	1.5%	4.24	3.54	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	22	108	462	137	49	6	92%	4.5	29.7%	10.6%	19.0%	1.3%	4.24	2.65	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	128	525	124	30	17	92%	5.1	19.8%	6.6%	13.2%	3.6%	4.49	4.23	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	128	525	124	30	17	92%	5.1	19.8%	6.6%	13.2%	3.6%	4.49	4.23	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	128	525	124	30	17	92%	5.1	23.6%	5.7%	17.9%	3.2%	4.49	3.59	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	18	93	376	93	17	10	78%	4.1	20.2%	4.8%	15.4%	3.1%	3.76	3.69	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	18	93	376	93	17	10	78%	4.1	20.2%	4.8%	15.4%	3.1%	3.76	3.69	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	18	93	376	93	17	10	78%	4.1	24.7%	4.5%	20.2%	2.7%	3.76	3.05	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	5	24	116	24	17	4	83%	4.1	14.5%	13.1%	1.4%	0.0%	7.03	3.54	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	5	24	116	24	17	4	83%	4.1	14.5%	13.1%	1.4%	0.0%	7.03	3.54	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	5	24	116	24	17	4	83%	4.1	20.7%	14.7%	6.0%	3.4%	7.03	5.36	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	NYM	1	1	3	13	2	1	0	100%	3.0	19.1%	5.5%	13.6%	2.9%	4.15	4.15	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	NYM	21	21	125	526	101	31	16	100%	5.9	19.3%	5.9%	13.4%	3.0%	4.21	4.24	+1.7
2029	29	MLB MLE	NYM	18	18	111	467	90	29	15	100%	6.2	19.2%	6.2%	13.0%	3.1%	4.31	4.37	+1.3
2030	30	MLB MLE	NYM	17	17	99	420	80	28	14	100%	5.8	19.0%	6.6%	12.4%	3.3%	4.45	4.54	+1.0
2031	31	MLB MLE	NYM	15	15	89	375	70	26	13	100%	5.9	18.7%	7.0%	11.7%	3.6%	4.62	4.74	+0.7
2032	32	MLB MLE	NYM	13	13	78	328	60	24	12	100%	6.0	18.2%	7.4%	10.9%	3.8%	4.83	4.96	+0.4
2033	33	MLB MLE	NYM	11	11	67	283	50	22	12	100%	6.1	17.7%	7.8%	9.9%	4.1%	5.06	5.21	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	NYM	8	8	47	198	38	12	6	100%	5.9	19.3%	5.9%	13.4%	3.0%	4.21	4.24	+0.6
2029	29	MLB CTX	NYM	10	10	62	262	50	16	8	100%	6.2	19.2%	6.2%	13.0%	3.1%	4.31	4.37	+0.7
2030	30	MLB CTX	NYM	11	11	68	287	55	19	10	100%	6.2	19.0%	6.6%	12.4%	3.3%	4.45	4.54	+0.7
2031	31	MLB CTX	NYM	11	11	68	287	54	20	10	100%	6.2	18.7%	7.0%	11.7%	3.5%	4.62	4.74	+0.5
2032	32	MLB CTX	NYM	11	11	64	270	49	20	10	100%	5.8	18.2%	7.4%	10.9%	3.8%	4.82	4.95	+0.3
2033	33	MLB CTX	NYM	10	10	58	245	43	19	10	100%	5.8	17.7%	7.8%	9.9%	4.1%	5.05	5.20	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		61	61	366	1545	289	106	54	100%	6.0	18.7%	6.8%	11.9%	3.5%	4.59	4.31	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	158	58	30	100%	6.0	18.7%	6.8%	11.9%	3.5%	4.59	4.31	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		113	91	461	1943	385	183	43	81%	4.1	19.8%	9.4%	10.4%	2.2%	4.39	3.83	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	39	200	842	167	79	19	81%	4.1	19.8%	9.4%	10.4%	2.2%	4.39	3.83	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 15 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.54 (+0.44)K% 17.9% → 14.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.91%	—	×0.810	14.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.94%	—	×1.100	13.13%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAASyracuse Mets · 9 IPFIP 7.84 → 8.34 (+0.50)K% 24.5% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.49%	—	×0.860	21.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.37%	—	×0.900	16.53%
HR / BF /BF	8.16%	÷1.000	×1.100	8.98%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 7.84 → 8.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 83 IPFIP 2.77 → 3.53 (+0.75)K% 25.9% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.93%	—	×0.810	21.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.01%	—	×1.100	4.41%
HR / BF /BF	2.47%	÷0.990	×1.200	2.99%

Result: FIP 2.77 → 3.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASyracuse Mets · 11 IPFIP 4.72 → 4.71 (−0.01)K% 17.3% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.31%	—	×0.860	14.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×0.900	6.92%
HR / BF /BF	3.85%	÷1.167	×1.100	3.63%

Result: FIP 4.72 → 4.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 119 IPFIP 3.16 → 4.23 (+1.07)K% 24.5% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.48%	—	×0.810	19.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.02%	—	×1.100	6.62%
HR / BF /BF	2.49%	÷0.834	×1.200	3.58%

Result: FIP 3.16 → 4.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASyracuse Mets · 9 IPFIP 8.60 → 8.98 (+0.38)K% 14.0% → 12.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.95%	—	×0.860	12.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.33%	—	×0.900	2.09%
HR / BF /BF	11.63%	÷1.059	×1.100	12.08%

Result: FIP 8.60 → 8.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 90 IPFIP 2.86 → 3.79 (+0.93)K% 29.3% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.28%	—	×0.770	22.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.17%	—	×1.150	12.84%
HR / BF /BF	1.49%	÷1.054	×1.250	1.77%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 111).

Result: FIP 2.86 → 3.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 18 IPFIP 1.24 → 1.84 (+0.60)K% 32.2% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.20%	—	×0.810	26.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.78%	—	×1.100	7.46%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.925	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.24 → 1.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joander Suarez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.15	19.1%	5.5%	2.9%	—	4.37	19.2%	13.0%	335	+0.22	—	—	—
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	85
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	80
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	77
Braydon Tucker R 2024 · 3.25 FIP	25	SP-	3.25	18.3%	7.1%	1.5%	.291	4.70	15.3%	6.3%	208	+1.45	3.25	314	77
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	77
Mitch Spence R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	26	SP-	4.17	19.4%	6.8%	3.4%	.315	4.73	17.2%	10.1%	197	+0.56	4.12	747	77
Bruce Billings R 2015 · 3.09 FIP	29	SP-	3.09	15.6%	5.6%	1.1%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	121	76
Mitch Myers R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP-	4.29	16.1%	5.8%	3.3%	.338	5.64	17.3%	8.5%	92	+1.35	3.56	432	74
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	74
Matt Shoemaker R 2014 · 3.12 FIP	27	SP-	3.12	22.8%	4.4%	2.5%	.283	4.02	21.0%	15.3%	373	+0.90	3.12	728	73
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	73
Josh DeGraaf R 2018 · 4.52 FIP	25	SP	4.52	17.2%	7.1%	3.6%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	320	73
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	72
Josh A. Smith R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	27	SP	3.40	17.8%	6.9%	1.7%	.307	3.87	19.9%	12.6%	265	+0.47	2.91	598	72
Donn Roach R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	26	SP-	3.50	12.8%	4.2%	1.7%	.300	3.94	13.1%	6.7%	174	+0.44	3.01	485	72
Jared Kollar R 2024 · 3.85 FIP	26	SP-	3.85	16.8%	6.4%	2.5%	.298	5.50	11.4%	2.4%	113	+1.65	3.85	345	72
Chad Patrick R 2024 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP	3.92	22.5%	6.3%	3.5%	.262	3.78	23.0%	14.2%	268	-0.14	3.69	570	71
Anthony Ranaudo R 2016 · 5.10 FIP	26	SP	5.10	15.5%	6.1%	4.6%	.255	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	314	70
Chandler Champlain R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	25	SP	4.72	16.7%	8.1%	3.6%	.298	4.77	15.3%	8.7%	247	+0.05	4.56	628	70
Jason Forjet R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	15.9%	5.5%	3.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	197	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	102	18.9%	6.4%	1.28	4.44
Wally Whitehurst ('89-'96, 4 WAR*)	2.4	98	19.0%*	6.3%*	1.11*	4.50*
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Alfredo Simon ('16)	3.9	111	15.7%	8.0%	1.22	4.56
Mark Leiter ('90-'01, 5 WAR*)	5.9	118	20.7%*	7.8%*	1.36*	4.61*
Lee Stange ('61-'70, 9 WAR*)	6.1	135	17.8%*	6.6%*	1.36*	4.14*
Matt Andriese ('24)	2.6	74	21.8%	6.7%	1.36	4.65