Joander Suarez — OGILVIE

Joander Suarez P Binghamton Rumble Ponies

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 223 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.5 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION24 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111102vR 94

ERA4.07

FIP4.07

K%20.1%

BB%4.8%

K-BB%15.3%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$18M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL6565

CMD6060

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets 1	8	4	21	83	19	5	0	50%	2.6	15.6%	7.5%	8.0%	0.0%	4.35	2.74	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mets 1	8	4	21	83	19	5	0	50%	2.6	22.9%	6.0%	16.9%	0.0%	4.35	1.99	—
2019	19	ROK MLE	GCL Mets	11	8	40	160	47	16	1	73%	3.7	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%	0.9%	1.79	3.48	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	GCL Mets	11	8	40	160	47	16	1	73%	3.7	29.4%	10.0%	19.4%	0.6%	1.79	2.28	—
2021	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	6	6	25	118	26	16	3	100%	4.1	16.3%	16.0%	0.3%	3.3%	7.66	5.59	—
2021	21	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	6	6	25	118	26	16	3	100%	4.1	22.0%	13.6%	8.5%	2.5%	7.66	4.52	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	5	21	103	25	9	2	50%	2.1	17.8%	13.1%	4.7%	0.0%	5.48	3.26	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	5	21	103	25	9	2	50%	2.1	24.3%	8.7%	15.5%	1.9%	5.48	3.24	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	22	108	462	137	49	6	92%	4.5	23.0%	12.2%	10.8%	1.5%	4.24	3.54	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	22	108	462	137	49	6	92%	4.5	23.0%	12.2%	10.8%	1.5%	4.24	3.54	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	22	108	462	137	49	6	92%	4.5	29.7%	10.6%	19.0%	1.3%	4.24	2.65	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	128	525	124	30	17	92%	5.1	19.8%	6.6%	13.2%	3.6%	4.49	4.23	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	128	525	124	30	17	92%	5.1	19.8%	6.6%	13.2%	3.6%	4.49	4.23	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	128	525	124	30	17	92%	5.1	23.6%	5.7%	17.9%	3.2%	4.49	3.59	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	18	93	376	93	17	10	78%	4.1	20.1%	4.8%	15.3%	3.1%	3.76	3.70	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	18	93	376	93	17	10	78%	4.1	20.1%	4.8%	15.3%	3.1%	3.76	3.70	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	18	93	376	93	17	10	78%	4.1	24.7%	4.5%	20.2%	2.7%	3.76	3.05	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	6	5	24	116	24	17	4	83%	4.1	14.5%	13.1%	1.4%	0.0%	7.03	3.54	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	6	5	24	116	24	17	4	83%	4.1	14.5%	13.1%	1.4%	0.0%	7.03	3.54	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	NYM	3	3	15	67	12	8	0	100%	5.1	17.9%	11.9%	6.0%	0.0%	3.52	3.10	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	NYM	3	2	9	49	12	9	4	67%	3.0	24.5%	18.4%	6.1%	8.2%	13.00	7.84	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	NYM	2	2	13	55	11	3	2	100%	6.6	20.1%	4.8%	15.3%	3.1%	4.07	4.07	+0.1
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	NYM	—	—	37	171	35	20	6	—	—	20.5%	11.5%	9.0%	3.3%	5.99	3.72	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	NYM	24	24	146	617	125	32	19	100%	6.1	20.3%	5.2%	15.1%	3.1%	4.11	4.13	+1.3
2028	28	MLB MLE	NYM	24	24	142	598	121	33	19	100%	5.9	20.3%	5.5%	14.8%	3.2%	4.18	4.22	+1.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	NYM	23	23	135	571	115	33	19	100%	5.9	20.2%	5.8%	14.3%	3.3%	4.29	4.35	+0.9
2030	30	MLB MLE	NYM	21	21	127	537	107	33	19	100%	6.1	19.9%	6.2%	13.7%	3.5%	4.43	4.53	+0.5
2031	31	MLB MLE	NYM	20	20	119	501	97	33	19	100%	5.9	19.4%	6.5%	12.9%	3.8%	4.61	4.73	+0.2
2032	32	MLB MLE	NYM	18	18	110	463	88	32	19	100%	6.1	19.0%	6.9%	12.1%	4.0%	4.82	4.96	-0.1
2033	33	MLB MLE	NYM	17	17	101	425	79	31	18	100%	5.9	18.5%	7.4%	11.1%	4.3%	5.05	5.21	-0.4
2027	27	MLB CTX	NYM	9	9	55	232	47	12	7	100%	6.1	20.3%	5.2%	15.1%	3.1%	4.11	4.13	+0.5
2028	28	MLB CTX	NYM	14	14	84	355	72	20	11	100%	6.0	20.3%	5.5%	14.8%	3.2%	4.18	4.22	+0.7
2029	29	MLB CTX	NYM	16	16	96	405	82	24	14	100%	6.0	20.2%	5.8%	14.3%	3.3%	4.29	4.35	+0.6
2030	30	MLB CTX	NYM	17	17	100	422	84	26	15	100%	5.9	19.9%	6.2%	13.7%	3.5%	4.43	4.53	+0.4
2031	31	MLB CTX	NYM	16	16	99	418	81	27	16	100%	6.2	19.4%	6.5%	12.9%	3.8%	4.60	4.72	+0.2
2032	32	MLB CTX	NYM	16	16	96	405	77	28	16	100%	6.0	19.0%	6.9%	12.1%	4.0%	4.81	4.95	-0.1
2033	33	MLB CTX	NYM	15	15	90	380	70	28	16	100%	6.0	18.5%	7.4%	11.1%	4.3%	5.04	5.20	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		103	103	620	2617	513	165	95	100%	6.0	19.6%	6.3%	13.3%	3.6%	4.52	4.24	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	166	53	31	100%	6.0	19.6%	6.3%	13.3%	3.6%	4.52	4.24	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		113	91	461	1943	385	183	43	81%	4.1	19.8%	9.4%	10.4%	2.2%	4.39	3.83	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	39	200	842	167	79	19	81%	4.1	19.8%	9.4%	10.4%	2.2%	4.39	3.83	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joander Suarez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.07	20.1%	4.8%	3.1%	—	4.23	20.3%	14.8%	423	+0.16	—	—	—
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	82
Deck McGuire R 2015 · 3.69 FIP	26	SP-	3.69	18.2%	6.2%	2.4%	.301	4.44	18.9%	9.2%	411	+0.75	3.41	622	80
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	79
Mat Latos R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	20.2%	6.3%	2.6%	.306	5.16	14.5%	4.4%	128	+1.56	3.60	244	79
Jack Cushing R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	26	SP-	5.04	19.8%	5.6%	5.3%	.315	4.37	18.8%	11.5%	156	-0.67	3.69	523	77
Zebby Matthews R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	20.0%	4.1%	3.7%	.290	3.98	22.8%	17.1%	404	+0.02	3.18	510	76
David Hale R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	16.2%	6.8%	2.8%	.343	4.11	13.8%	8.1%	251	-0.04	3.30	493	76
Louis Varland R 2023 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	22.7%	6.4%	3.9%	.309	3.34	25.0%	18.0%	279	-0.78	1.69	684	75
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	74
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	533	74
Joe Wieland R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	26	SP	4.27	18.6%	7.3%	3.3%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	270	74
Garrett Stallings R 2023 · 4.32 FIP	25	SP-	4.32	20.0%	7.9%	3.5%	.327	4.11	16.2%	9.2%	260	-0.21	3.53	612	74
Nathan Wiles R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	25	SP-	4.68	17.0%	5.7%	4.2%	.308	4.39	17.0%	10.7%	200	-0.29	4.22	399	73
Michael Brady R 2015 · 3.15 FIP	28	SP-	3.15	18.9%	2.5%	2.4%	.326	3.48	18.0%	14.6%	214	+0.33	3.02	333	72
Matt Andriese R 2016 · 3.42 FIP	26	SP-	3.42	22.1%	4.7%	2.9%	.309	4.23	22.7%	15.9%	235	+0.81	3.08	744	72
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	72
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.32	15.8%	8.2%	335	+0.34	3.98	443	72
Chris Bassitt R 2015 · 3.02 FIP	26	SP-	3.02	19.4%	7.7%	1.1%	.287	3.81	19.3%	10.5%	208	+0.79	3.02	1,554	72
Ivan Pineyro R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP-	4.48	16.8%	6.2%	3.6%	.356	4.70	13.4%	5.2%	45	+0.22	3.53	422	72
Josh DeGraaf R 2018 · 4.52 FIP	25	SP	4.52	17.2%	7.1%	3.6%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	320	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.1	128	19.8%	5.9%	1.35	4.40
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36