Jack Neely

P Iowa Cubs

Age 27 RHP 6'8" / 245 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	MIX2 levels	42	66	2.17	2.56	38.6%	7.7%	—	K 30.1% · BB 8.8% · FIP 3.71
2024	24	MIX3 levels	45	56	3.51	2.50	36.0%	8.4%	1.4	K 31.0% · BB 8.8% · FIP 2.74
2025	25	MIX2 levels	31	33	5.94	4.81	27.7%	16.8%	—	K 23.6% · BB 16.5% · FIP 4.70
2027PROJ	27	MLBCHC	57	60	4.15	4.15	28.8%	11.9%	0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	28	MLBCHC	24	25	4.22	4.25	28.1%	11.8%	0.1
2029PROJ59% MLB	29	MLBCHC	31	33	4.33	4.39	27.5%	11.8%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff70Control55Command55FB velo55

CompsJon Edwards (age 27) · Fernando Rodriguez Jr. (age 27) · Kiko Calero (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.15

FIP4.15

K%28.8%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%16.9%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF7070

CTRL5055

CMD5055

K†6565

SL+0.6 (47%)

FB-2.3 (53%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	2	0	2	6	5	0	0	0%	1.0	83.3%	0.0%	83.3%	0.0%	0.00	-3.94	—
2021	21	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	2	0	2	6	5	0	0	0%	1.0	83.3%	0.0%	83.3%	0.0%	0.00	-1.90	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	50	218	87	26	3	0%	1.3	28.8%	14.5%	14.3%	1.9%	3.58	3.54	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	50	218	87	26	3	0%	1.3	39.9%	11.9%	28.0%	1.4%	3.58	1.97	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	66	259	100	20	8	0%	1.6	30.1%	8.8%	21.3%	3.7%	2.17	3.71	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	66	259	100	20	8	0%	1.6	38.6%	7.7%	30.9%	3.1%	2.17	2.56	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	0	56	239	86	20	6	0%	1.3	31.0%	8.8%	22.2%	2.1%	3.51	2.74	+1.2
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	0	56	239	86	20	6	0%	1.3	31.0%	8.8%	22.2%	2.1%	3.51	2.74	+1.2
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	45	0	56	239	86	20	6	0%	1.3	36.0%	8.4%	27.6%	2.5%	3.51	2.50	+1.4
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	33	155	43	26	5	0%	1.1	23.6%	16.5%	7.1%	2.8%	5.94	4.70	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	33	155	43	26	5	0%	1.1	23.6%	16.5%	7.1%	2.8%	5.94	4.70	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	33	155	43	26	5	0%	1.1	27.7%	16.8%	11.0%	3.2%	5.94	4.81	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			6	0	6	28	7	2	2	0%	1.0	25.0%	7.1%	17.9%	7.1%	9.00	6.10	-0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CHC	57	0	60	253	73	30	7	0%	1.1	28.8%	11.9%	16.9%	2.9%	4.15	4.15	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CHC	55	0	58	244	69	29	7	0%	1.0	28.1%	11.8%	16.4%	3.0%	4.22	4.25	+0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	CHC	52	0	55	233	64	27	7	0%	1.1	27.5%	11.8%	15.7%	3.2%	4.33	4.39	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	CHC	24	0	25	106	30	12	3	0%	1.0	28.1%	11.8%	16.4%	3.0%	4.22	4.25	+0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	CHC	31	0	33	139	38	16	4	0%	1.1	27.5%	11.8%	15.7%	3.2%	4.33	4.39	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	63	269	74	30	9	0%	1.1	27.5%	11.3%	16.2%	3.5%	4.73	4.14	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	0	200	853	235	95	29	0%	1.0	27.5%	11.3%	16.2%	3.5%	4.73	4.14	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		158	0	208	877	256	101	23	0%	1.3	29.2%	11.5%	17.7%	2.6%	3.46	3.53	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		152	0	200	842	246	97	22	0%	1.3	29.2%	11.5%	17.7%	2.6%	3.46	3.53	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack Neely (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.15	28.8%	11.9%	2.9%	—	4.32	27.8%	16.1%	113	+0.17	—	—	—
Jon Edwards R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	31.7%	13.1%	2.4%	.264	2.40	30.3%	22.6%	30	-1.00	2.40	132	81
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	81
Kiko Calero R 2003 · 3.54 FIP	28	SU	3.54	31.5%	11.1%	3.1%	.273	3.11	26.1%	18.9%	159	-0.43	2.27	298	80
Matt Barnes R 2017 · 3.27 FIP	27	SU	3.27	28.9%	9.8%	2.5%	.296	3.03	36.3%	24.3%	149	-0.24	2.54	495	80
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	79
Jose Veras R 2008 · 3.67 FIP	27	SU	3.67	24.9%	9.1%	2.8%	.281	4.10	23.8%	11.7%	169	+0.43	3.37	422	79
James Sherfy R 2019 · 3.62 FIP	27	SU	3.62	27.1%	10.8%	2.6%	.355	4.80	19.0%	12.7%	15	+1.18	2.64	271	79
Zach Franklin R 2024 · 3.24 FIP	25	SU	3.24	26.4%	10.9%	1.8%	.301	4.15	27.5%	18.3%	117	+0.91	3.24	158	79
Simon Castro R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	26.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.320	3.58	26.0%	17.6%	128	+0.30	3.01	185	79
Kyle Keller R 2019 · 3.83 FIP	26	SU	3.83	28.7%	9.4%	3.6%	.293	4.88	28.0%	17.8%	52	+1.05	2.72	296	79
Taylor Williams R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	24.2%	8.9%	2.4%	.309	4.35	22.5%	12.7%	108	+0.83	2.51	309	78
Brooks Kriske R 2021 · 4.95 FIP	27	SU	4.95	28.6%	12.1%	5.0%	.261	4.27	30.0%	17.8%	88	-0.68	3.09	246	78
Matt Pushard R 2024 · 3.87 FIP	26	SU	3.87	24.1%	8.9%	3.0%	.242	3.29	22.2%	14.0%	115	-0.58	2.84	220	78
Ryan Garton R 2017 · 3.67 FIP	27	SU	3.67	25.2%	11.3%	2.3%	.252	4.15	23.5%	10.8%	108	+0.48	3.14	307	78
Kirby Yates R 2014 · 3.25 FIP	27	SU	3.25	26.9%	7.7%	2.6%	.296	4.20	30.0%	21.2%	160	+0.95	0.66	526	78
JT Chargois R 2018 · 3.36 FIP	27	SU	3.36	24.4%	9.9%	2.0%	.282	3.48	25.9%	17.5%	108	+0.12	2.58	362	78
Michael Tonkin R 2017 · 3.32 FIP	27	SU	3.32	29.2%	9.6%	2.7%	.309	6.30	21.8%	8.3%	22	+2.98	2.31	499	78
Drew Steckenrider R 2018 · 3.31 FIP	27	SU	3.31	27.2%	8.1%	2.7%	.284	3.92	22.1%	16.0%	82	+0.61	2.61	392	77
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	26.4%	14.3%	2.3%	.274	4.80	21.7%	10.2%	69	+0.87	3.84	181	77
Collin Baumgartner R 2024 · 2.99 FIP	25	SU	2.99	26.1%	11.5%	1.2%	.280	4.13	22.6%	8.4%	77	+1.14	2.99	134	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	28.1%	11.6%	1.23	4.39
Colin Poche ('25)	1.1	54	26.7%	10.2%	1.32	4.01
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
Oliver Drake ('20)	1.0	68	26.2%	9.5%	1.06	4.27
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*