Grayson Rodriguez

P Los Angeles Angels

Age 27 RHP 6'5" / 230 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 0.9 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANArb-1FA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	MIX2 levels	31	31	163	3.75	3.55	27.0%	8.9%	2.7	K 25.9% · BB 8.6% · FIP 3.66
2024	24	MLBBAL	20	20	117	3.86	3.47	26.5%	7.3%	2.0
2026	26	MIX4 levels	24	24	118	5.43	4.09	21.3%	8.4%	1.1	K 19.1% · BB 9.2% · FIP 4.59
2027PROJ	27	MLBLAA	17	17	101	4.65	4.56	21.9%	8.8%	0.4
2028PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBLAA	16	16	96	4.69	4.69	21.8%	8.9%	0.3
2029PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBLAA	15	15	92	4.79	4.85	21.2%	9.1%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 5.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.750First FA2031Super-2

2027Arb-1$1M2028Arb-2$2M2029Arb-3$2M2030Arb-4$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo72

Whiff%40

K%29

xwOBA vs10

CompsClaudio Vargas (age 27) · Brian Edgington (age 25) · Riley Gowens (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.65

FIP4.56

K%21.9%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%13.2%

Proj IP101

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 101 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL5555

CMD6060

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7296.1

Whiff%

p4023.9%

p2919.1%

xwOBA vs

p100.360

CH+6.2 (21%)

SI (1%)

CU (15%)

FB-1.4 (48%)

SL-3.0 (16%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.750 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.2M
2028	Arb-2	$2M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-3	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-4	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$1M		$3M	+$0.2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	GCL Orioles	9	8	19	80	20	7	0	89%	2.1	17.0%	10.9%	6.1%	0.0%	1.40	3.05	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	GCL Orioles	9	8	19	80	20	7	0	89%	2.1	25.0%	8.8%	16.2%	0.0%	1.40	2.12	—
2019	19	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	20	20	94	377	129	36	4	100%	4.7	25.3%	11.3%	14.1%	1.5%	2.68	3.20	—
2019	19	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	20	20	94	377	129	36	4	100%	4.7	34.2%	9.5%	24.7%	1.1%	2.68	2.06	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	103	398	161	27	10	100%	4.5	32.4%	7.5%	24.8%	2.5%	2.36	2.70	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	103	398	161	27	10	100%	4.5	40.5%	6.8%	33.7%	2.5%	2.36	2.02	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	17	76	298	109	28	2	100%	4.5	31.5%	8.1%	23.4%	0.8%	2.62	1.93	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	17	76	298	109	28	2	100%	4.5	36.6%	9.4%	27.2%	0.7%	2.62	1.67	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	163	684	185	61	20	100%	5.3	25.9%	8.6%	17.3%	3.0%	3.75	3.66	+2.5
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	163	684	185	61	20	100%	5.3	27.0%	8.9%	18.1%	2.9%	3.75	3.55	+2.7
2024	24	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	20	20	117	491	130	36	15	100%	5.8	26.5%	7.3%	19.1%	3.1%	3.86	3.48	+2.0
2024	24	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	20	20	117	491	130	36	15	100%	5.8	26.5%	7.3%	19.1%	3.1%	3.86	3.48	+2.0
2024	24	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	20	20	117	491	130	36	15	100%	5.8	26.5%	7.3%	19.1%	3.1%	3.86	3.47	+2.0
2026	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	24	24	118	525	112	44	16	100%	4.9	19.1%	9.2%	9.9%	3.5%	5.43	4.59	+0.4
2026	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	24	24	118	525	112	44	16	100%	4.9	19.1%	9.2%	9.9%	3.5%	5.43	4.59	+0.4
2026	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	24	24	118	525	112	44	16	100%	4.9	21.3%	8.4%	13.0%	3.0%	5.43	4.09	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			63	63	337	1450	344	119	47	100%	5.4	23.7%	8.2%	15.5%	3.2%	4.67	3.93	+3.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	LAA	17	17	101	426	93	37	14	100%	5.9	21.9%	8.8%	13.2%	3.3%	4.65	4.56	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	LAA	17	17	101	427	93	38	15	100%	6.0	21.8%	8.9%	12.9%	3.4%	4.65	4.65	+0.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	LAA	16	16	97	408	86	37	15	100%	6.0	21.2%	9.1%	12.1%	3.6%	4.75	4.81	+0.1
2030	30	MLB MLE	LAA	15	15	91	383	79	36	14	100%	6.1	20.5%	9.4%	11.1%	3.8%	4.91	5.02	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	LAA	16	16	96	405	88	36	14	100%	6.0	21.8%	8.9%	12.9%	3.5%	4.69	4.69	+0.3
2029	29	MLB CTX	LAA	15	15	92	388	82	35	14	100%	6.1	21.2%	9.1%	12.1%	3.6%	4.79	4.85	+0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	LAA	14	14	86	363	74	34	14	100%	6.1	20.5%	9.4%	11.1%	3.9%	4.95	5.06	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		109	109	612	2608	589	225	89	100%	5.6	22.6%	8.6%	14.0%	3.4%	4.73	4.16	+5.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	853	193	74	29	100%	5.6	22.6%	8.6%	14.0%	3.4%	4.73	4.16	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		144	143	690	2853	739	249	72	99%	4.8	25.9%	8.7%	17.2%	2.5%	3.51	3.41	+4.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	41	200	827	214	72	21	99%	4.8	25.9%	8.7%	17.2%	2.5%	3.51	3.41	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Grayson Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.56	21.9%	8.8%	3.3%	—	4.82	21.2%	12.0%	289	+0.26	—	—	—
Claudio Vargas R 2005 · 4.98 FIP	27	SP	4.98	16.2%	7.2%	4.3%	.285	4.61	16.6%	9.2%	339	-0.37	3.66	765	69
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	69
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	68
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	68
Tanner Houck R 2023 · 4.12 FIP	27	SP	4.12	21.4%	8.9%	3.1%	.291	3.57	19.6%	12.8%	233	-0.55	2.27	733	67
Alec Marsh R 2024 · 3.93 FIP	26	SP	3.93	23.4%	7.0%	3.5%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	424	67
Ross Ohlendorf R 2010 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP	4.31	16.6%	8.8%	2.7%	.275	4.60	16.6%	9.3%	148	+0.29	3.30	617	67
Matt Andriese R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	27	SP	4.71	20.3%	7.2%	4.4%	.290	3.99	24.5%	17.5%	181	-0.72	3.08	744	67
Jonathan Pintaro R 2024 · 3.42 FIP	26	SP	3.42	18.9%	9.4%	1.3%	.264	4.07	23.9%	12.1%	153	+0.65	3.42	223	66
Roman Angelo R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP	3.99	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.72	18.6%	5.2%	169	+1.73	3.99	290	66
Gavin Williams R 2024 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP	3.54	24.7%	9.8%	2.3%	.317	3.83	29.1%	19.2%	352	+0.29	3.39	697	66
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	65
James McDonald R 2012 · 4.18 FIP	27	SP	4.18	21.2%	8.8%	3.2%	.264	3.74	18.1%	4.3%	30	-0.44	2.99	506	65
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	65
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	65
Austin Bergner R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	27	SP	4.84	22.2%	12.5%	3.7%	.325	4.42	18.7%	7.3%	107	-0.42	4.06	464	64
Deck McGuire R 2016 · 5.23 FIP	27	SP	5.23	17.2%	8.5%	4.6%	.287	4.05	19.8%	9.4%	277	-1.18	3.41	622	64
Jeremy Hefner R 2013 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP	4.33	17.8%	5.9%	3.6%	.277	4.64	16.8%	7.7%	98	+0.31	3.56	322	64
Carson Seymour R 2024 · 4.64 FIP	25	SP	4.64	19.0%	9.0%	3.6%	.340	4.43	19.7%	10.2%	221	-0.21	3.39	579	64
Jason Forjet R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	15.9%	5.5%	3.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	197	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	104	22.5%	8.7%	1.31	4.70
Ray Keating ('12-'19, 3 WAR*)	3.8	107	21.5%*	9.6%*	1.28*	4.82*
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	2.6	74	21.5%	8.0%	1.09	4.41
John Patterson ('07)	2.3	76	21.2%	9.1%	1.19	4.32
Bob Steele ('16-'19, 2 WAR*)	2.4	163	22.0%*	9.0%*	1.22*	4.73*
Jon Gray ('25)	6.2	123	23.4%	7.8%	1.17	4.49
Ken Kravec ('75-'82, 5 WAR*)	4.3	123	23.6%*	10.7%*	1.11*	4.73*