Carlos Duran

P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 26 RHP 6'7" / 230 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX3 levels	19	19	53	3.71	3.14	29.4%	12.9%	—	K 22.9% · BB 13.6% · FIP 3.94
2025	24	MIX2 levels	39	2	63	5.43	4.15	22.4%	19.4%	0.3	K 19.6% · BB 16.8% · FIP 3.92
2026	25	MIX2 levels	51	2	56	3.23	2.78	30.9%	14.8%	1.2	K 27.2% · BB 12.8% · FIP 2.91
2027PROJ	26	MLBKC	67	0	70	4.47	4.47	25.8%	16.2%	0.1
2028PROJ55% MLB	27	MLBKC	36	0	38	4.47	4.49	25.5%	15.6%	0.0
2029PROJ70% MLB	28	MLBKC	45	0	47	4.52	4.56	25.2%	15.2%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff57Control20Command39FB velo60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsSean Isaac (age 25) · Jon Duplantier (age 25) · Preston Johnson (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.47

FIP4.47

K%25.8%

BB%16.2%

K-BB%9.6%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL2020

CMD3040

K†6060

SL (22%)

SI (33%)

FB-1.3 (78%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	17	ROK MLE	DSL Dodgers Robinson	12	12	42	157	30	3	1	100%	3.5	13.0%	2.4%	10.6%	0.9%	1.50	2.79	—
2018	17	ROK RAW	DSL Dodgers Robinson	12	12	42	157	30	3	1	100%	3.5	19.1%	1.9%	17.2%	0.6%	1.50	2.20	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Dodgers Lasorda	13	13	40	184	39	20	3	100%	3.1	14.4%	13.6%	0.8%	2.3%	4.24	4.86	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	AZL Dodgers Lasorda	13	13	40	184	39	20	3	100%	3.1	21.2%	10.9%	10.3%	1.6%	4.24	3.62	—
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	81	378	115	30	9	91%	3.7	23.7%	8.3%	15.4%	3.6%	5.56	4.11	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	20	81	378	115	30	9	91%	3.7	30.4%	7.9%	22.5%	2.4%	5.56	2.82	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	14	50	215	69	24	6	93%	3.3	24.8%	13.1%	11.7%	3.5%	4.17	4.59	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	14	50	215	69	24	6	93%	3.3	32.1%	11.2%	20.9%	2.8%	4.17	3.34	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	53	248	73	32	4	100%	2.8	22.9%	13.6%	9.3%	1.9%	3.71	3.94	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	53	248	73	32	4	100%	2.8	22.9%	13.6%	9.3%	1.9%	3.71	3.94	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	19	53	248	73	32	4	100%	2.8	29.4%	12.9%	16.5%	1.6%	3.71	3.14	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	2	63	299	67	58	2	5%	1.6	19.6%	16.8%	2.8%	0.6%	5.43	3.92	+0.5
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	2	63	299	67	58	2	5%	1.6	19.6%	16.8%	2.8%	0.6%	5.43	3.92	+0.5
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	2	63	299	67	58	2	5%	1.6	22.4%	19.4%	3.0%	0.7%	5.43	4.15	+0.3
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	2	56	256	79	38	2	4%	1.1	27.2%	12.8%	14.4%	0.9%	3.23	2.91	+1.1
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	2	56	256	79	38	2	4%	1.1	27.2%	12.8%	14.4%	0.9%	3.23	2.91	+1.1
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	2	56	256	79	38	2	4%	1.1	30.9%	14.8%	16.0%	0.8%	3.23	2.78	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			3	0	2	14	1	6	0	0%	0.6	7.1%	42.9%	-35.7%	0.0%	27.00	12.70	-0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	KC	67	0	70	296	76	48	6	0%	1.0	25.8%	16.2%	9.6%	2.0%	4.47	4.47	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	KC	66	0	69	291	74	45	6	0%	1.0	25.5%	15.6%	10.0%	2.2%	4.47	4.49	+0.0
2029	28	MLB MLE	KC	64	0	67	282	71	43	7	0%	1.0	25.2%	15.2%	10.0%	2.3%	4.52	4.56	-0.0
2030	29	MLB MLE	KC	61	0	64	270	67	41	7	0%	1.0	24.9%	15.2%	9.8%	2.5%	4.61	4.68	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	KC	36	0	38	160	41	25	3	0%	1.1	25.5%	15.6%	10.0%	2.2%	4.47	4.49	+0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	KC	45	0	47	198	50	30	5	0%	1.0	25.2%	15.2%	10.0%	2.3%	4.52	4.56	-0.0
2030	29	MLB CTX	KC	48	0	50	211	53	32	5	0%	1.0	24.9%	15.2%	9.8%	2.5%	4.61	4.68	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		131	0	136	583	144	93	13	0%	1.0	24.8%	16.0%	8.8%	2.3%	4.81	4.29	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		193	0	200	855	211	136	19	0%	1.0	24.8%	16.0%	8.8%	2.3%	4.81	4.29	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		171	82	385	1737	375	205	36	48%	2.3	21.6%	11.8%	9.8%	2.0%	4.18	3.90	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		89	43	200	902	195	107	18	48%	2.3	21.6%	11.8%	9.8%	2.0%	4.18	3.90	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Duran (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.47	25.8%	16.2%	2.0%	—	4.57	25.2%	9.9%	200	+0.10	—	—	—
Sean Isaac R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	25	SW	4.20	24.2%	16.3%	2.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	155	66
Jon Duplantier R 2019 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP-	3.54	22.0%	14.0%	0.9%	.327	5.74	21.8%	8.1%	107	+2.20	3.10	435	65
Preston Johnson R 2024 · 3.94 FIP	24	SU	3.94	23.7%	18.2%	1.0%	.331	5.04	22.6%	10.5%	137	+1.10	3.94	193	65
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	63
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	62
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	62
Eric Cerantola R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	24	SW	4.65	25.7%	16.6%	2.9%	.245	3.74	26.2%	15.9%	100	-0.91	3.37	270	61
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	61
Noah Denoyer R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	25	SW	5.24	22.2%	14.0%	4.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	181	61
Layne Somsen R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.5%	12.5%	1.3%	.265	4.00	19.9%	6.7%	92	+0.26	3.66	154	61
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	318	61
Jose De La Torre R 2013 · 5.22 FIP	27	SU	5.22	28.3%	18.9%	3.9%	.308	3.87	17.6%	6.6%	110	-1.35	2.64	141	61
Robinson Leyer R 2019 · 3.81 FIP	26	SU	3.81	23.3%	15.6%	1.3%	.355	6.05	21.2%	5.8%	45	+2.24	3.60	422	60
Steve Johnson R 2013 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	27.4%	16.4%	2.5%	.308	2.90	26.6%	17.8%	93	-1.33	2.22	206	60
Carter Loewen R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	23.1%	15.0%	2.2%	.312	4.16	20.0%	11.9%	23	-0.10	2.67	145	60
Ryan Jensen R 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	26.6%	17.2%	1.6%	.331	4.35	21.9%	5.6%	50	+0.43	3.92	311	60
Lucas Erceg R 2021 · 5.61 FIP	26	SP-	5.61	17.1%	18.1%	3.0%	.258	3.36	25.0%	13.8%	193	-2.25	2.10	351	60
Trent Sellers R 2024 · 3.41 FIP	24	SW	3.41	23.4%	13.2%	1.1%	.211	4.63	22.6%	8.7%	175	+1.22	3.41	257	60
Brooks Kriske R 2019 · 3.47 FIP	25	SU	3.47	26.1%	12.2%	1.9%	.245	4.95	28.6%	16.5%	41	+1.48	3.09	246	60
Ben Gross R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	25	SW	4.85	17.6%	15.6%	2.3%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	4.05	118	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	68	25.2%	15.9%	0.86	4.65
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Matt Mantei ('05)	1.6	54	28.0%	14.1%	0.84	4.07
Dave Jolly ('53-'57, -0 WAR*)	1.5	58	20.2%*	14.3%*	0.91*	4.33*
Ken Wright ('70-'74, -0 WAR*)	1.2	79	23.8%*	16.1%*	0.70*	5.24*