Martin Herrera prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Martin Herrera P FCL Tigers

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 175 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.54

FIP4.54

K%22.4%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%12.1%

ROS IP18

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	12	11	31	140	28	6	1	92%	2.6	13.6%	5.4%	8.2%	1.0%	3.73	3.18	—
2018	17	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 2	12	11	31	140	28	6	1	92%	2.6	20.0%	4.3%	15.7%	0.7%	3.73	2.30	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	13	13	59	246	48	8	0	100%	4.5	13.3%	4.1%	9.2%	0.0%	2.61	2.49	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 2	13	13	59	246	48	8	0	100%	4.5	19.5%	3.3%	16.3%	0.0%	2.61	1.87	—
2021	20	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers East	16	1	29	124	17	11	2	6%	1.8	9.3%	11.1%	-1.8%	2.5%	5.28	5.06	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers East	16	1	29	124	17	11	2	6%	1.8	13.7%	8.9%	4.8%	1.6%	5.28	3.96	—
2022	21	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	15	0	15	66	13	9	1	0%	1.0	13.4%	17.0%	-3.7%	2.1%	5.52	5.30	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	15	0	15	66	13	9	1	0%	1.0	19.7%	13.6%	6.1%	1.5%	5.52	4.05	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	16	0	30	128	20	13	2	0%	1.9	10.6%	12.7%	-2.1%	2.4%	4.80	5.11	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	16	0	30	128	20	13	2	0%	1.9	10.6%	12.7%	-2.1%	2.4%	4.80	5.11	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	16	0	30	128	20	13	2	0%	1.9	15.6%	10.2%	5.5%	1.6%	4.80	3.93	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	DET	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.4%	10.3%	12.1%	3.0%	4.54	4.54	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	DET	19	0	20	84	19	9	3	0%	1.1	22.7%	10.1%	12.6%	3.0%	4.50	4.49	+0.0
2027	26	MLB CTX	DET	9	0	9	38	9	4	1	0%	1.0	22.7%	10.1%	12.6%	3.0%	4.50	4.49	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	4	1	0%	1.1	22.7%	10.1%	12.6%	3.0%	4.50	4.11	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	94	23	0%	1.1	22.7%	10.1%	12.6%	3.0%	4.50	4.11	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		72	25	164	704	86	59	9	35%	2.3	12.2%	8.3%	3.8%	1.3%	3.96	3.82	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		88	31	200	860	105	72	11	35%	2.3	12.2%	8.3%	3.8%	1.3%	3.96	3.82	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Martin Herrera (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.54	22.4%	10.3%	3.0%	—	4.49	22.7%	12.6%	20	-0.05	—	—	—
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	83
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	78
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.26	16.4%	8.7%	208	+1.06	4.20	277	78
Garrett Mock R 2008 · 3.57 FIP	25	SU	3.57	25.6%	11.1%	2.2%	.300	4.06	17.1%	7.4%	91	+0.49	3.57	132	78
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.39	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.39	3.65	301	78
Brendan Collins R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	22	SW	3.67	21.8%	10.3%	2.0%	.294	3.86	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.19	3.67	122	77
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	76
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	76
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	75
Dylan King R 2022 · 3.78 FIP	25	SW	3.78	26.7%	9.8%	3.1%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	121	75
Michael King R 2020 · 4.56 FIP	25	SW	4.56	21.5%	9.1%	3.9%	.316	2.74	28.3%	20.8%	219	-1.82	1.97	1,024	75
David Pauley R 2008 · 4.30 FIP	25	SW	4.30	16.4%	7.5%	3.0%	.429	4.30	13.8%	7.3%	165	+0.00	3.51	210	74
Grant Balfour R 2003 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	26.1%	10.4%	3.5%	.275	3.79	24.4%	12.8%	39	-0.34	2.04	533	74
Jose Samayoa R 2016 · 3.44 FIP	26	SW	3.44	16.6%	9.9%	0.9%	.286	3.79	17.3%	9.4%	226	+0.35	3.44	262	74
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2023 · 5.11 FIP	24	SW	5.11	18.2%	9.9%	4.2%	.304	3.67	18.0%	9.9%	189	-1.44	3.51	330	74
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	74
Nathanael Santiago R 2015 · 3.44 FIP	25	SP-	3.44	20.3%	11.4%	1.1%	.286	3.58	23.2%	10.9%	71	+0.14	2.49	138	73
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	73
Noah Denoyer R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	25	SW	5.24	22.2%	14.0%	4.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	181	73
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.80	25.1%	15.0%	175	-0.63	2.47	305	73