Efrain Contreras
P
Reading Fightin Phils
+0.1
WAR
Age 26
RHP
5'10" / 225 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.74
FIP4.74
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.4%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%12.0%
IP49
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | AZL Padres 1 | 14 | 7 | 62 | 245 | 69 | 12 | 4 | 19.2% | 6.1% | 2.3% | 2.31 | 3.51 | +1.0 |
| 2019 | 19 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 25 | 23 | 110 | 455 | 121 | 32 | 12 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 3.61 | 4.09 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 17 | 17 | 53 | 246 | 64 | 25 | 7 | 20.0% | 11.7% | 3.9% | 5.74 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 35 | 17 | 97 | 421 | 117 | 48 | 14 | 22.5% | 12.5% | 4.6% | 4.92 | 5.32 | -0.0 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 14 | 8 | 45 | 215 | 51 | 24 | 10 | 19.2% | 12.3% | 5.0% | 9.67 | 5.77 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | PHI | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 46 | 21 | 7 | 22.4% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 4.74 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | PHI | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 46 | 21 | 7 | 22.5% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.70 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 48 | — | 48 | 203 | 46 | 21 | 7 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 3.3% | 4.69 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 44 | 20 | 7 | 22.5% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 4.70 | 4.73 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 46 | — | 46 | 192 | 43 | 20 | 7 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 4.74 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 41 | 19 | 6 | 22.1% | 10.5% | 3.5% | 4.81 | 4.85 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 42 | — | 42 | 178 | 39 | 19 | 6 | 21.8% | 10.6% | 3.6% | 4.89 | 4.94 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | PHI | 40 | — | 40 | 170 | 36 | 18 | 6 | 21.5% | 10.8% | 3.6% | 4.98 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | PHI | 38 | — | 38 | 161 | 34 | 18 | 6 | 21.1% | 11.0% | 3.7% | 5.08 | 5.15 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | PHI | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 31 | 17 | 6 | 20.7% | 11.2% | 3.9% | 5.19 | 5.27 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | PHI | 34 | — | 34 | 142 | 29 | 16 | 6 | 20.3% | 11.5% | 4.0% | 5.32 | 5.40 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 105 | 72 | 367 | 1582 | 322 | 161 | 59 | 20.3% | 10.2% | 3.7% | 4.78 | 4.70 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 39 | 200 | 862 | 175 | 88 | 32 | 20.3% | 10.2% | 3.7% | 4.78 | 4.70 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Efrain Contreras (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.74 | 22.4% | 10.4% | 3.3% | — | 4.71 | 22.5% | 12.3% | 144 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 90 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .292 | 4.93 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +0.96 | 3.84 | 299 | 89 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .232 | 5.13 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.43 | 3.70 | 223 | 87 |
| Jack Hartman R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.32 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 3.4% | .310 | 4.30 | 17.6% | 5.6% | 46 | -0.02 | 3.45 | 161 | 87 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.32 | 26.5% | 11.2% | 3.7% | .299 | 4.62 | 23.6% | 11.9% | 58 | +0.30 | 3.86 | 134 | 87 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.8% | .256 | 4.33 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.08 | 3.88 | 180 | 87 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 86 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .273 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.31 | 3.70 | 187 | 86 |
| Juan Ramon Noriega R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 21.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .243 | 3.46 | 24.8% | 17.1% | 57 | -1.00 | 3.46 | 198 | 85 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 85 |
| Kyle Winkler R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.74 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .234 | 3.53 | 18.4% | 8.3% | 43 | -0.21 | 2.96 | 114 | 85 |
| Shawn Armstrong R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.33 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .282 | 3.20 | 26.9% | 17.2% | 144 | -1.13 | 1.79 | 618 | 84 |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.05 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.28 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.23 | 3.34 | 187 | 84 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.45 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 4.78 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.33 | 2.65 | 315 | 84 |
| Hunter Parsons R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.93 | 22.8% | 10.9% | 4.3% | .274 | 6.70 | 25.5% | 9.0% | 29 | +1.77 | 4.76 | 183 | 84 |
| Jason Ruffcorn R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.14 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .255 | 4.04 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 66 | -0.10 | 4.04 | 214 | 83 |
| Ryan Middendorf R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.93 | 19.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .293 | 4.50 | 12.8% | -1.5% | 34 | -0.43 | 1.27 | 164 | 83 |
| Jake Barrett R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.13 | 20.1% | 11.5% | 4.1% | .267 | 2.91 | 26.9% | 15.2% | 69 | -2.22 | 1.48 | 230 | 83 |
| Cale Coshow R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.60 | 23.1% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .300 | 3.68 | 23.0% | 12.8% | 63 | -0.92 | 3.09 | 377 | 83 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.86 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 3.0% | .242 | 2.97 | 25.1% | 15.7% | 62 | -0.89 | 2.97 | 167 | 82 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.