Efrain Contreras
P
Rocket City Trash Pandas
Age 26
RHP
5'10" / 225 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION16 act + 34 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127118vR 108
ERA4.76
FIP4.76
K%22.4%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%12.0%
ROS IP34
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | AZL Padres 1 | 14 | 7 | 62 | 245 | 69 | 12 | 4 | 50% | 4.5 | 19.2% | 6.1% | 13.0% | 2.3% | 2.31 | 3.51 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | AZL Padres 1 | 14 | 7 | 62 | 245 | 69 | 12 | 4 | 50% | 4.5 | 28.2% | 4.9% | 23.3% | 1.6% | 2.31 | 2.30 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 25 | 23 | 110 | 455 | 121 | 32 | 12 | 92% | 4.4 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 11.4% | 2.6% | 3.61 | 3.93 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 25 | 23 | 110 | 455 | 121 | 32 | 12 | 92% | 4.4 | 26.6% | 7.0% | 19.6% | 2.6% | 3.61 | 3.19 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 17 | 17 | 53 | 246 | 64 | 25 | 7 | 100% | 3.1 | 20.0% | 11.7% | 8.3% | 4.2% | 5.74 | 5.21 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 17 | 17 | 53 | 246 | 64 | 25 | 7 | 100% | 3.1 | 26.0% | 10.2% | 15.9% | 2.8% | 5.74 | 3.81 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 35 | 17 | 97 | 421 | 117 | 48 | 14 | 49% | 2.8 | 22.5% | 12.5% | 10.0% | 6.2% | 4.92 | 6.22 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 35 | 17 | 97 | 421 | 117 | 48 | 14 | 49% | 2.8 | 27.8% | 11.4% | 16.4% | 3.3% | 4.92 | 4.05 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 14 | 8 | 45 | 215 | 51 | 24 | 10 | 57% | 3.2 | 19.2% | 12.3% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 9.67 | 5.44 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 14 | 8 | 45 | 215 | 51 | 24 | 10 | 57% | 3.2 | 23.7% | 11.2% | 12.6% | 4.7% | 9.67 | 5.34 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 10 | 0 | 16 | 66 | 22 | 3 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 27.0% | 5.0% | 22.0% | 5.5% | 3.94 | 4.45 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | LAA | 33 | 0 | 34 | 145 | 33 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 10.4% | 12.0% | 3.4% | 4.76 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | LAA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 10.4% | 12.0% | 3.4% | 4.76 | 4.76 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 50 | 211 | 55 | 18 | 8 | — | — | 25.8% | 8.5% | 17.3% | 3.8% | 4.50 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 22.4% | 10.4% | 12.0% | 3.4% | 4.76 | 4.38 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | LAA | 6 | 6 | 34 | 143 | 32 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 22.5% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 3.4% | 4.74 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | LAA | 2 | 2 | 13 | 55 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 6.5 | 22.5% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 3.4% | 4.74 | 4.76 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3 | 2 | 13 | 57 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 67% | 4.5 | 22.5% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 3.4% | 4.74 | 4.38 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 32 | 200 | 844 | 194 | 89 | 30 | 76% | 4.8 | 22.5% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 3.4% | 4.74 | 4.38 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 115 | 72 | 383 | 1648 | 340 | 164 | 67 | 63% | 3.3 | 20.6% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 4.1% | 4.75 | 4.86 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 38 | 200 | 861 | 177 | 86 | 35 | 63% | 3.3 | 20.6% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 4.1% | 4.75 | 4.86 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Efrain Contreras (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.76 | 22.4% | 10.4% | 3.4% | — | 4.76 | 22.5% | 12.2% | 34 | +0.00 | — | — | — |
| Dawson Netz R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 85 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 85 |
| Sean Mooney R 2024 · 4.82 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.82 | 24.7% | 13.5% | 3.8% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 102 | 75 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.65 | 20.5% | 7.8% | 4.2% | .319 | 4.96 | 18.4% | 6.6% | 242 | +0.31 | 4.39 | 353 | 74 |
| Colby Morris R 2025 · 5.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.76 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 73 |
| Chase Centala R 2024 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.16 | 17.4% | 6.6% | 3.1% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 124 | 73 |
| Jake Walkinshaw R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.66 | 17.5% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .296 | 4.92 | 13.3% | 3.1% | 116 | +0.26 | 2.20 | 286 | 72 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.94 | 16.6% | 9.8% | 3.7% | .285 | 6.04 | 14.5% | 4.2% | 81 | +1.10 | 4.52 | 239 | 72 |
| Jose Samayoa R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.56 | 16.6% | 9.9% | 1.1% | .286 | 4.12 | 17.3% | 9.4% | 226 | +0.56 | 3.56 | 262 | 72 |
| Phil Klein R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 1.6% | .280 | 3.17 | 24.5% | 17.9% | 97 | -0.66 | 3.17 | 178 | 72 |
| TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.63 | 23.7% | 8.7% | 4.4% | .317 | 3.95 | 22.5% | 14.7% | 87 | -0.68 | 3.36 | 432 | 72 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 71 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 167 | 71 |
| Brian Edgington R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.05 | 19.3% | 12.3% | 3.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 171 | 71 |
| Noah Bremer R 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.24 | 18.0% | 9.4% | 2.7% | .292 | 5.88 | 13.1% | 1.2% | 46 | +1.64 | 3.14 | 271 | 71 |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 71 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .331 | 5.46 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.57 | 3.89 | 141 | 70 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 70 |
| Trent Sellers R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.09 | 23.5% | 14.2% | 4.0% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 236 | 70 |
| Trent Baker R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.74 | 20.2% | 8.3% | 2.4% | .304 | 4.64 | 16.6% | 7.0% | 39 | +0.90 | 3.74 | 459 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 34 | 22.4% | 10.3% | 1.32 | 4.75 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |