Efrain Contreras

Efrain Contreras P Rocket City Trash Pandas

Age 26 RHP 5'10" / 225 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 34 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.01

FIP5.01

K%21.2%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%9.5%

ROS IP34

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	AZL Padres 1	14	7	62	245	69	12	4	50%	4.5	19.2%	6.1%	13.0%	2.3%	2.31	3.51	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	AZL Padres 1	14	7	62	245	69	12	4	50%	4.5	28.2%	4.9%	23.3%	1.6%	2.31	2.30	—
2019	19	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	25	23	110	455	121	32	12	92%	4.4	19.7%	8.3%	11.4%	3.0%	3.61	4.12	—
2019	19	A RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	25	23	110	455	121	32	12	92%	4.4	26.6%	7.0%	19.6%	2.6%	3.61	3.19	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	17	17	53	246	64	25	7	100%	3.1	20.0%	11.7%	8.3%	3.9%	5.74	5.01	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	17	17	53	246	64	25	7	100%	3.1	26.0%	10.2%	15.9%	2.8%	5.74	3.81	—
2023	23	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	35	17	97	421	117	48	14	49%	2.8	22.5%	12.5%	10.0%	4.9%	4.92	5.46	—
2023	23	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	35	17	97	421	117	48	14	49%	2.8	22.5%	12.5%	10.0%	4.9%	4.92	5.46	—
2023	23	AA RAW	San Antonio Missions	35	17	97	421	117	48	14	49%	2.8	27.8%	11.4%	16.4%	3.3%	4.92	4.05	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	14	8	45	215	51	24	10	57%	3.2	19.2%	12.3%	6.9%	4.9%	9.67	5.73	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	14	8	45	215	51	24	10	57%	3.2	19.2%	12.3%	6.9%	4.9%	9.67	5.73	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	14	8	45	215	51	24	10	57%	3.2	23.7%	11.2%	12.6%	4.7%	9.67	5.34	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	10	0	16	66	22	3	3	0%	1.6	27.0%	5.0%	22.0%	5.5%	3.94	4.45	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	10	0	16	66	22	3	3	0%	1.6	27.0%	5.0%	22.0%	5.5%	3.94	4.45	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	LAA	10	0	16	66	22	3	3	0%	1.6	33.3%	4.5%	28.8%	4.5%	3.94	3.36	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	LAA	7	7	40	167	36	19	6	100%	5.7	21.4%	11.5%	9.9%	3.4%	4.97	4.98	-0.0
2027	27	MLB CTX	LAA	2	2	15	63	14	7	2	100%	7.5	21.4%	11.5%	9.9%	3.4%	4.97	4.98	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	15	63	13	7	2	100%	7.4	21.4%	11.5%	9.9%	3.4%	4.97	4.60	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	175	94	27	100%	6.0	21.4%	11.5%	9.9%	3.4%	4.97	4.60	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		115	72	383	1648	340	164	63	63%	3.3	20.6%	10.0%	10.7%	3.8%	4.75	4.73	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	38	200	861	177	86	33	63%	3.3	20.6%	10.0%	10.7%	3.8%	4.75	4.73	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Efrain Contreras (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.01	21.2%	11.7%	3.4%	—	4.98	21.4%	9.9%	40	-0.03	—	—	—
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	78
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	77
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	77
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	76
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	74
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	74
Phil Klein R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	26	SW	3.86	18.1%	11.0%	1.6%	.280	3.10	24.5%	17.9%	97	-0.76	3.10	178	74
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.85	13.9%	4.7%	81	+1.14	4.43	239	74
Tanner Burns R 2023 · 5.27 FIP	24	SW	5.27	19.4%	12.5%	4.0%	.257	5.00	17.7%	4.6%	131	-0.27	4.34	382	74
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	73
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	73
Carson Rudd R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	21.0%	13.0%	4.7%	.274	4.61	17.5%	-0.1%	110	-0.92	3.39	242	73
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	72
Bryce Conley R 2021 · 4.31 FIP	26	SW	4.31	17.9%	12.2%	2.2%	.285	4.22	16.4%	5.3%	48	-0.09	4.22	560	72
Noah Bremer R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	18.0%	9.4%	2.9%	.292	5.82	13.1%	1.2%	46	+1.43	3.19	271	72
Hunter Gregory R 2023 · 4.06 FIP	24	SW	4.06	20.0%	12.1%	2.0%	.322	5.11	20.1%	8.3%	161	+1.05	3.84	249	72
Jake Dunning R 2015 · 5.60 FIP	26	SP-	5.60	13.4%	9.6%	4.4%	.354	4.29	14.1%	2.8%	74	-1.31	4.19	120	72
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	71
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	71
Chris Kachmar R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	26	SW	4.82	20.5%	7.8%	4.5%	.319	4.67	18.2%	7.1%	248	-0.15	4.29	360	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	37	21.3%	11.6%	1.30	4.99
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58