Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Reds | 14 | 12 | 53 | 205 | 72 | 20 | 0 | 86% | 3.8 | 23.9% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 0.0% | 1.18 | 2.63 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Reds | 14 | 12 | 53 | 205 | 72 | 20 | 0 | 86% | 3.8 | 35.1% | 9.8% | 25.4% | 0.0% | 1.18 | 1.53 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Inland Empire 66ers | 20 | 17 | 96 | 423 | 115 | 47 | 10 | 85% | 4.8 | 20.1% | 13.1% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 5.91 | 4.68 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Inland Empire 66ers | 20 | 17 | 96 | 423 | 115 | 47 | 10 | 85% | 4.8 | 27.2% | 11.1% | 16.1% | 2.4% | 5.91 | 3.53 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 118 | 515 | 152 | 45 | 12 | 100% | 4.9 | 22.3% | 10.1% | 12.2% | 4.5% | 3.81 | 4.97 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 118 | 515 | 152 | 45 | 12 | 100% | 4.9 | 29.5% | 8.7% | 20.8% | 2.3% | 3.81 | 2.99 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 7 | 51 | 215 | 39 | 14 | 8 | 44% | 3.2 | 13.7% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.41 | 5.57 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 7 | 51 | 215 | 39 | 14 | 8 | 44% | 3.2 | 18.1% | 6.5% | 11.6% | 3.7% | 4.41 | 4.43 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | LAA | 6 | 6 | 36 | 151 | 34 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.9% | 9.1% | 13.8% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | LAA | 6 | 6 | 35 | 149 | 34 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.9% | 9.2% | 13.7% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | LAA | 2 | 2 | 13 | 55 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 6.5 | 22.9% | 9.2% | 13.7% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.41 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 13 | 54 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 6.4 | 22.9% | 9.2% | 13.7% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.04 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 186 | 78 | 31 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.9% | 9.2% | 13.7% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.04 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 74 | 60 | 318 | 1358 | 279 | 149 | 46 | 81% | 4.3 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 4.10 | 4.62 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 38 | 200 | 853 | 175 | 94 | 29 | 81% | 4.3 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 4.10 | 4.62 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jose Salvador (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 22.9% | 9.1% | 3.1% | — | 4.41 | 22.9% | 13.7% | 35 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Tommy Shirley L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.30 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .252 | 4.86 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.56 | 3.30 | 147 | 78 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.39 | 18.5% | 6.0% | 2.0% | .282 | 4.13 | 16.2% | 7.0% | 87 | +0.74 | 3.39 | 300 | 74 |
| James Paxton L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.26 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .288 | 3.00 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.26 | 2.48 | 924 | 74 |
| Zach Thornton L 2024 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 20.9% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 221 | 73 |
| Tyler Skaggs L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.34 | 20.8% | 7.7% | 3.7% | .310 | 3.59 | 23.9% | 16.0% | 205 | -0.75 | 3.21 | 372 | 71 |
| Sebastian Gongora L 2024 · 3.81 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.81 | 18.5% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 152 | 71 |
| Mike Minor L 2028 · 5.50 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.50 | 19.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .330 | 3.78 | 23.2% | 16.4% | 443 | -1.72 | 2.42 | 807 | 70 |
| Braeden Fausnaught L 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.91 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 4.2% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.57 | 242 | 70 |
| Taylor Varnell L 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.52 | 20.1% | 10.3% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 248 | 69 |
| Michael Plassmeyer L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.51 | 21.8% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .319 | 4.85 | 20.7% | 12.5% | 239 | +0.34 | 3.41 | 675 | 69 |
| Connor Wietgrefe L 2024 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.26 | 18.7% | 8.5% | 3.0% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 200 | 69 |
| Pete Hansen L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.23 | 19.4% | 8.9% | 3.0% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 437 | 69 |
| Aríel Miranda L 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.38 | 18.3% | 10.2% | 0.9% | .280 | 5.41 | 19.2% | 10.2% | 364 | +2.03 | 3.38 | 431 | 69 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2025 · 4.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.77 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .274 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.77 | 154 | 69 |
| Dylan Dodd L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.9% | 7.0% | 4.4% | .338 | 4.05 | 26.4% | 21.5% | 100 | -0.83 | 3.41 | 452 | 68 |
| Dietrich Enns L 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.31 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 1.8% | .280 | 5.74 | 15.4% | 6.6% | 266 | +2.43 | 2.80 | 740 | 68 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2027 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.0% | .289 | 5.37 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | +0.10 | 5.27 | 128 | 68 |
| Kohl Drake L 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.13 | 17.0% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 297 | 67 |
| Matt Portland L 2024 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.64 | 17.4% | 11.0% | 2.9% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.61 | 143 | 67 |
| Avery Weems L 2025 · 5.13 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.13 | 21.3% | 8.6% | 5.0% | .323 | 5.19 | 20.5% | 12.3% | 38 | +0.06 | 2.46 | 227 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 35 | 22.9% | 9.1% | 1.19 | 4.39 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |