Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | GCL Twins | 8 | 0 | 14 | 67 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 6.1% | 5.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 3.29 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | GCL Twins | 8 | 0 | 14 | 67 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 9.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 2.89 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | GCL Twins | 9 | 7 | 38 | 149 | 34 | 8 | 1 | 78% | 4.2 | 15.5% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 0.9% | 2.15 | 3.16 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | GCL Twins | 9 | 7 | 38 | 149 | 34 | 8 | 1 | 78% | 4.2 | 22.8% | 5.4% | 17.4% | 0.7% | 2.15 | 2.28 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Twins | 3 | 3 | 7 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 2.3 | 24.1% | 3.4% | 20.7% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 1.50 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Twins | 3 | 3 | 7 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 2.3 | 24.1% | 3.4% | 20.7% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 1.53 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 29 | 1 | 41 | 171 | 52 | 19 | 2 | 3% | 1.4 | 22.5% | 13.1% | 9.4% | 1.5% | 1.98 | 3.69 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 29 | 1 | 41 | 171 | 52 | 19 | 2 | 3% | 1.4 | 30.4% | 11.1% | 19.3% | 1.2% | 1.98 | 2.59 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 28 | 0 | 43 | 175 | 38 | 24 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 16.7% | 15.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 3.16 | 4.30 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 28 | 0 | 43 | 175 | 38 | 24 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 21.7% | 13.7% | 8.0% | 1.1% | 3.16 | 3.62 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 24 | 0 | 25 | 107 | 25 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 9.6% | 13.4% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 23 | 0 | 25 | 104 | 24 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.45 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.45 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.07 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 200 | 89 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.07 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 77 | 11 | 142 | 591 | 102 | 65 | 6 | 14% | 1.8 | 17.2% | 11.0% | 6.3% | 1.0% | 2.66 | 3.59 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 108 | 15 | 200 | 830 | 143 | 91 | 8 | 14% | 1.8 | 17.2% | 11.0% | 6.3% | 1.0% | 2.66 | 3.59 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Niklas Rimmel (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.37 | 23.0% | 9.6% | 3.0% | — | 4.45 | 22.9% | 13.2% | 25 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 3.2% | .230 | 3.59 | 23.5% | 7.2% | 40 | -0.49 | 2.74 | 188 | 81 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.86 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.1% | .295 | 3.60 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.26 | 3.19 | 269 | 81 |
| Tanner Kohlhepp R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.74 | 23.4% | 7.6% | 3.0% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 150 | 80 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.69 | 2.59 | 309 | 80 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.51 | 23.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 121 | 80 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2028 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 79 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.24 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .339 | 3.34 | 23.5% | 12.8% | 29 | -0.90 | 3.31 | 166 | 79 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.99 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .417 | 2.87 | 19.5% | 13.2% | 71 | -1.12 | 1.94 | 143 | 79 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 78 |
| Cole Sulser R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.43 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 1.7% | .321 | 2.78 | 28.2% | 18.4% | 140 | -0.65 | 2.29 | 538 | 78 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2027 · 3.36 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.36 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.03 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.67 | 3.27 | 150 | 78 |
| Caleb Bolden R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.55 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 222 | 78 |
| Jason Adam R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.39 | 24.2% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .237 | 2.64 | 33.1% | 24.9% | 88 | -0.75 | 2.45 | 394 | 78 |
| Pedro Garcia R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.30 | 22.9% | 9.1% | 1.8% | .276 | 6.16 | 27.5% | 9.3% | 50 | +2.86 | 2.80 | 155 | 78 |
| Holt Jones R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.13 | 24.2% | 11.4% | 3.0% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 217 | 78 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.96 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 4.5% | .341 | 4.97 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 71 | +0.01 | 3.75 | 223 | 78 |
| Ryan Garton R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.71 | 25.2% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .252 | 4.13 | 23.5% | 10.8% | 108 | +0.42 | 3.15 | 307 | 78 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 2.0% | .359 | 5.26 | 12.8% | 2.8% | 47 | +1.80 | 3.46 | 108 | 78 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 78 |
| José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.52 | 21.6% | 8.3% | 4.0% | .325 | 4.07 | 18.8% | 6.4% | 153 | -0.45 | 4.02 | 328 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 25 | 23.0% | 9.6% | 1.16 | 4.39 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |