Caleb Bolden
P
Portland Sea Dogs
+0.3
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 190 lbs
AA
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.35
FIP4.35
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.0%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%10.4%
IP62
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL4545
CMD4545
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 27.00 | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 32 | 0 | 58 | 253 | 84 | 29 | 4 | 26.6% | 14.7% | 0.6% | 4.17 | 3.06 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 33 | 10 | 74 | 325 | 83 | 38 | 4 | 20.4% | 13.0% | 1.5% | 4.12 | 3.84 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 18 | 10 | 58 | 265 | 60 | 26 | 3 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 1.2% | 5.74 | 3.60 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 2 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 10.80 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | BOS | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 53 | 29 | 6 | 20.4% | 11.2% | 2.4% | 4.48 | 4.48 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 65 | 279 | 57 | 30 | 6 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 2.2% | 4.80 | 4.25 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 53 | 29 | 6 | 20.7% | 11.1% | 2.5% | 4.48 | 4.49 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 52 | 28 | 6 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.6% | 4.50 | 4.53 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 51 | 27 | 6 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 2.6% | 4.54 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 48 | 26 | 6 | 20.5% | 11.1% | 2.7% | 4.60 | 4.64 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 54 | — | 54 | 227 | 46 | 26 | 6 | 20.2% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.68 | 4.73 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 51 | — | 51 | 217 | 43 | 25 | 6 | 19.9% | 11.4% | 2.9% | 4.77 | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 40 | 24 | 6 | 19.6% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 4.87 | 4.94 | +0.0 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 46 | — | 46 | 194 | 37 | 23 | 6 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 3.1% | 4.98 | 5.06 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 43 | — | 43 | 181 | 34 | 22 | 6 | 18.8% | 12.1% | 3.2% | 5.11 | 5.20 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 87 | 20 | 195 | 870 | 186 | 111 | 10 | 21.4% | 12.8% | 1.1% | 4.88 | 3.52 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 89 | 20 | 200 | 891 | 190 | 114 | 10 | 21.4% | 12.8% | 1.1% | 4.88 | 3.52 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Caleb Bolden (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.48 | 20.4% | 11.2% | 2.4% | — | 4.53 | 20.7% | 9.7% | 179 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.72 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.05 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.33 | 3.70 | 147 | 90 |
| Gonzalez Germen R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.29 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 2.1% | .296 | 3.94 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 54 | -0.35 | 3.68 | 146 | 89 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.58 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.8% | .309 | 5.45 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +0.87 | 3.47 | 160 | 88 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2028 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.56 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.33 | 2.83 | 228 | 88 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 88 |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.46 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +1.00 | 4.46 | 215 | 87 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.58 | 17.4% | 10.0% | 1.3% | .317 | 3.06 | 17.5% | 13.1% | 49 | -0.52 | 3.06 | 137 | 87 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.26 | 19.7% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .211 | 4.46 | 24.6% | 14.3% | 98 | +0.20 | 4.26 | 258 | 87 |
| Armando Rivero R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.26 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 1.9% | .256 | 2.69 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.57 | 2.69 | 125 | 87 |
| Drew Hayes R 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.35 | 19.5% | 11.2% | 0.9% | .333 | 4.00 | 13.8% | 3.7% | 59 | +0.65 | 3.35 | 117 | 87 |
| Grant Sides R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.83 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .247 | 3.31 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.52 | 3.31 | 159 | 87 |
| Burch Smith R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.92 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.45 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.53 | 3.42 | 365 | 87 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.76 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 117 | 86 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2028 · 3.41 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.41 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.4% | .283 | 4.31 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.90 | 3.41 | 104 | 86 |
| Evan Gates R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.02 | 22.5% | 11.8% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 242 | 86 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2027 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.73 | 3.25 | 150 | 86 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 86 |
| Cole Sulser R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.54 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 1.9% | .321 | 2.87 | 28.2% | 18.4% | 140 | -0.67 | 2.39 | 509 | 86 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2029 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 85 |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.51 | 16.5% | 9.3% | 1.1% | .306 | 4.05 | 23.1% | 11.7% | 66 | +0.54 | 3.51 | 134 | 85 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.