Caleb Bolden — OGILVIE

Caleb Bolden P Portland Sea Dogs

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION78 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 107

ERA4.76

FIP4.76

K%18.8%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%6.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 84 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	23	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	2	0	1	10	0	2	0	0%	0.7	0.0%	20.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	27.00	5.63	—
2022	23	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	2	0	1	10	0	2	0	0%	0.7	0.0%	20.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	27.00	7.60	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	58	253	84	29	4	0%	1.8	26.6%	14.7%	11.9%	0.6%	4.17	3.06	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	58	253	84	29	4	0%	1.8	26.6%	14.7%	11.9%	0.6%	4.17	3.06	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	58	253	84	29	4	0%	1.8	33.2%	11.5%	21.7%	1.6%	4.17	2.60	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	10	74	325	83	38	4	30%	2.3	20.4%	13.0%	7.3%	1.5%	4.12	3.83	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	10	74	325	83	38	4	30%	2.3	20.4%	13.0%	7.3%	1.5%	4.12	3.83	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	10	74	325	83	38	4	30%	2.3	25.5%	11.7%	13.8%	1.2%	4.12	3.10	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	18	10	58	265	60	26	3	56%	3.2	18.3%	10.8%	7.5%	1.2%	5.74	3.58	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	18	10	58	265	60	26	3	56%	3.2	18.3%	10.8%	7.5%	1.2%	5.74	3.58	—
2025	26	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	18	10	58	265	60	26	3	56%	3.2	22.6%	9.8%	12.8%	1.1%	5.74	3.05	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	36	3	78	346	95	31	7	8%	2.2	22.1%	9.5%	12.5%	1.9%	5.79	3.46	—
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	36	3	78	346	95	31	7	8%	2.2	22.1%	9.5%	12.5%	1.9%	5.79	3.46	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AA RAW	BOS	34	3	74	323	88	28	5	9%	2.2	27.2%	8.7%	18.6%	1.5%	5.38	2.75	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	BOS	2	0	4	23	7	3	2	0%	2.0	30.4%	13.0%	17.4%	8.7%	13.50	6.96	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	BOS	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	18.8%	12.3%	6.5%	2.4%	4.76	4.76	-0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	BOS	—	—	84	371	100	34	8	—	—	26.9%	9.2%	17.7%	2.0%	5.72	3.55	+1.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	BOS	65	0	68	287	55	35	7	0%	1.0	19.1%	12.2%	7.0%	2.5%	4.76	4.80	-0.2
2028	29	MLB MLE	BOS	62	0	65	274	53	33	7	0%	1.0	19.2%	12.2%	7.0%	2.7%	4.82	4.89	-0.3
2027	28	MLB CTX	BOS	25	0	26	110	21	13	3	0%	1.0	19.1%	12.2%	7.0%	2.5%	4.76	4.80	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	BOS	34	0	36	152	29	19	4	0%	1.1	19.2%	12.2%	7.0%	2.7%	4.82	4.89	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	0	62	261	50	32	7	0%	1.0	19.2%	12.2%	7.0%	2.6%	4.80	4.47	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	162	104	23	0%	1.1	19.2%	12.2%	7.0%	2.6%	4.80	4.47	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		121	23	270	1199	258	143	16	19%	2.2	21.5%	11.9%	9.6%	1.3%	5.07	3.52	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		90	17	200	889	192	106	12	19%	2.2	21.5%	11.9%	9.6%	1.3%	5.07	3.52	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Caleb Bolden (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.76	18.8%	12.3%	2.4%	—	4.84	19.2%	7.0%	133	+0.08	—	—	—
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	91
Josh Zeid R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	28	SU	4.12	16.6%	12.5%	1.6%	.302	5.19	16.9%	5.7%	194	+1.07	4.12	265	86
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	84
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	84
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	84
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	82
Dylan Cumming R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SW	4.11	16.0%	10.7%	1.8%	.311	4.31	18.4%	9.4%	314	+0.20	3.75	406	81
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	81
Trevor Cahill R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	27	SW	4.13	16.4%	9.4%	2.2%	.297	4.12	22.9%	12.0%	293	-0.01	3.37	556	81
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	81
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	81
Gonzalez Germen R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	27	SU	4.24	18.0%	12.5%	1.9%	.296	3.88	19.2%	8.3%	54	-0.36	3.70	146	80
Dustin Antolin R 2017 · 4.35 FIP	27	SW	4.35	16.2%	14.4%	1.4%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	159	80
Chase Plymell R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	19.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.330	4.53	13.6%	5.9%	162	+0.30	3.85	291	79
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	79
Wil Jensen R 2023 · 4.88 FIP	25	SU	4.88	20.2%	12.1%	3.5%	.284	3.48	22.7%	14.3%	84	-1.40	3.48	368	79
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	79
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	79
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	78
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	19.0%	12.2%	0.98	4.78
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64