Caleb Bolden
P
Portland Sea Dogs
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 190 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION45 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 107
ERA4.70
FIP4.70
K%18.8%
BB%12.0%
K-BB%6.8%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 115 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.7 | 0.0% | 20.0% | -20.0% | 0.0% | 27.00 | 5.63 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.7 | 0.0% | 20.0% | -20.0% | 0.0% | 27.00 | 7.60 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 0 | 58 | 253 | 84 | 29 | 4 | 0% | 1.8 | 26.6% | 14.7% | 11.9% | 0.6% | 4.17 | 3.06 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 0 | 58 | 253 | 84 | 29 | 4 | 0% | 1.8 | 33.2% | 11.5% | 21.7% | 1.6% | 4.17 | 2.60 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 10 | 74 | 325 | 83 | 38 | 4 | 30% | 2.3 | 20.4% | 13.0% | 7.3% | 1.4% | 4.12 | 3.81 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 10 | 74 | 325 | 83 | 38 | 4 | 30% | 2.3 | 25.5% | 11.7% | 13.8% | 1.2% | 4.12 | 3.10 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 18 | 10 | 58 | 265 | 60 | 26 | 3 | 56% | 3.2 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 7.5% | 1.1% | 5.74 | 3.52 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 18 | 10 | 58 | 265 | 60 | 26 | 3 | 56% | 3.2 | 22.6% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 1.1% | 5.74 | 3.05 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 21 | 1 | 45 | 199 | 57 | 19 | 5 | 5% | 2.1 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 13.0% | 2.0% | 6.00 | 3.55 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | BOS | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 56 | 35 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.8% | 12.0% | 6.8% | 2.3% | 4.70 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | BOS | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.8% | 12.0% | 6.8% | 2.3% | 4.70 | 4.70 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 115 | 495 | 113 | 54 | 12 | — | — | 22.8% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 2.4% | 5.21 | 4.25 | +1.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 18.8% | 12.0% | 6.8% | 2.3% | 4.70 | 4.32 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 55 | 34 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.1% | 11.9% | 7.3% | 2.5% | 4.71 | 4.74 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 53 | 33 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 7.3% | 2.7% | 4.78 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 21 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.1% | 11.9% | 7.3% | 2.5% | 4.71 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 29 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 7.3% | 2.7% | 4.78 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 51 | 32 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 7.3% | 2.6% | 4.75 | 4.42 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 162 | 102 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 7.3% | 2.6% | 4.75 | 4.42 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 106 | 21 | 237 | 1052 | 228 | 130 | 13 | 20% | 2.2 | 21.7% | 12.4% | 9.3% | 1.3% | 5.01 | 3.52 | +5.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 89 | 18 | 200 | 888 | 192 | 110 | 11 | 20% | 2.2 | 21.7% | 12.4% | 9.3% | 1.3% | 5.01 | 3.52 | +4.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Caleb Bolden (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.70 | 18.8% | 12.0% | 2.3% | — | 4.79 | 19.2% | 7.3% | 133 | +0.09 | — | — | — |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 90 |
| Josh Zeid R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.21 | 16.6% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .302 | 5.16 | 16.9% | 5.7% | 194 | +0.95 | 4.21 | 265 | 85 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 84 |
| Calvin Drummond R 2025 · 3.51 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.51 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 0.8% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 112 | 84 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 82 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.15 | 16.4% | 9.4% | 2.3% | .297 | 4.10 | 22.9% | 12.0% | 293 | -0.05 | 3.33 | 556 | 82 |
| Taylor Grover R 2025 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 81 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 81 |
| Jake Stinnett R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.07 | 21.1% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 356 | 81 |
| Dustin Antolin R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.36 | 16.2% | 14.4% | 1.5% | .368 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.90 | 159 | 79 |
| Mike Adams R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.26 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 4.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 109 | 79 |
| Stephen Johnson R 2024 · 5.44 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.44 | 16.7% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 141 | 79 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.25 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 4.4% | .307 | 3.44 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.81 | 3.32 | 227 | 79 |
| Gonzalez Germen R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.11 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .296 | 3.74 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 54 | -0.37 | 3.74 | 146 | 79 |
| Derek Gordon R 2024 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.72 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 146 | 78 |
| Robert Kwiatkowski R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.01 | 18.3% | 9.0% | 2.4% | .255 | 4.31 | 15.9% | 2.3% | 20 | +0.30 | 4.01 | 254 | 78 |
| Chris Beck R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.83 | 17.4% | 12.2% | 3.0% | .305 | 5.33 | 18.1% | 9.3% | 41 | +0.50 | 3.11 | 313 | 78 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 78 |
| Adam Quintana R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.15 | 18.6% | 11.7% | 2.1% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.72 | 201 | 78 |
| Casey Coleman R 2027 · 4.22 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.22 | 12.6% | 11.4% | 1.3% | .349 | 4.18 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 146 | -0.04 | 2.86 | 306 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 68 | 19.0% | 11.9% | 0.97 | 4.73 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |