Nick Schnell
RF El Paso Chihuahuas| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | AAA/AATB | 422 | .251/.315/.405 | 12 | 11 | 67 | — | .222/.272/.347 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA/AAWSH | 562 | .257/.324/.478 | 23 | 18 | 76 | — | .215/.266/.386 |
| 2026 | 26 | AAASD | 244 | .239/.322/.479 | 12 | 5 | 72 | — | .200/.264/.368 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 27 | MLBSD | 16 | .206/.261/.363 | 0 | 0 | 75 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 28 | MLBSD | 56 | .206/.261/.360 | 2 | 1 | 74 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 60
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | GCL Rays | — | 82 | 67 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 23 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 239 | 378 | 373 | 751 | 134 | 349 | 28 | 17 | 346 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 60 | 55 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 236 | 276 | 327 | 603 | 91 | 406 | 40 | 3 | 262 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | GCL Rays | — | 21 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 190 | 381 | 571 | 190 | 333 | 43 | 0 | 240 | -33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 227 | 190 | 33 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 31 | 73 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 174 | 302 | 321 | 623 | 147 | 225 | 32 | 14 | 288 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 164 | 140 | 36 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 57 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 257 | 350 | 386 | 736 | 129 | 402 | 35 | 12 | 326 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 391 | 339 | 77 | 18 | 3 | 16 | 43 | 135 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 227 | 314 | 440 | 754 | 212 | 311 | 35 | 11 | 326 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 96 | 89 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 38 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 213 | 263 | 337 | 600 | 124 | 333 | 40 | 5 | 268 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 326 | 294 | 77 | 19 | 1 | 9 | 25 | 78 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 262 | 330 | 425 | 755 | 163 | 325 | 24 | 8 | 335 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | — | 402 | 357 | 87 | 15 | 5 | 21 | 37 | 136 | 5 | 12 | 3 | 244 | 323 | 490 | 814 | 246 | 327 | 34 | 9 | 354 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 160 | 149 | 43 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 39 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 289 | 325 | 450 | 775 | 161 | 369 | 24 | 5 | 334 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 244 | 213 | 51 | 11 | 2 | 12 | 25 | 76 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 239 | 322 | 479 | 801 | 239 | 307 | 31 | 10 | 344 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Rays | — | 82 | 73 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 33 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 178 | 268 | 288 | 556 | 110 | 279 | 40 | 10 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 60 | 56 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 179 | 207 | 250 | 457 | 71 | 378 | 58 | 2 | 181 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Rays | — | 21 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 95 | 95 | 190 | 286 | 95 | 259 | 62 | 0 | 119 | -33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 227 | 200 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 103 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 125 | 222 | 215 | 437 | 90 | 211 | 45 | 9 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 164 | 146 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 79 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 192 | 263 | 274 | 536 | 82 | 361 | 48 | 9 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 391 | 358 | 55 | 11 | 2 | 12 | 24 | 186 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 154 | 207 | 296 | 503 | 142 | 243 | 48 | 6 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 96 | 90 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 45 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 178 | 221 | 267 | 488 | 89 | 316 | 47 | 4 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 326 | 302 | 71 | 18 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 95 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 235 | 287 | 371 | 658 | 136 | 310 | 29 | 5 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 402 | 369 | 72 | 12 | 4 | 15 | 25 | 159 | 5 | 12 | 3 | 195 | 256 | 371 | 627 | 176 | 284 | 40 | 6 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 160 | 151 | 40 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 48 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 265 | 293 | 424 | 717 | 159 | 352 | 30 | 4 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 244 | 220 | 44 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 91 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 200 | 264 | 368 | 632 | 168 | 283 | 37 | 7 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Rays | — | 82 | 73 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 33 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 178 | 268 | 288 | 556 | 110 | 308 | 40 | 10 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Rays | — | 82 | 67 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 23 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 239 | 378 | 373 | 751 | 134 | 349 | 28 | 17 | 346 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 81 | 77 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 48 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 156 | 177 | 234 | 411 | 78 | 400 | 59 | 1 | 165 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 81 | 76 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 224 | 253 | 342 | 595 | 118 | 386 | 41 | 2 | 257 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 227 | 200 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 103 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 125 | 222 | 215 | 437 | 90 | 213 | 45 | 9 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A RAW | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 227 | 190 | 33 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 31 | 73 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 174 | 302 | 321 | 623 | 147 | 225 | 32 | 14 | 288 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 164 | 146 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 79 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 192 | 263 | 274 | 536 | 82 | 388 | 48 | 9 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A RAW | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 164 | 140 | 36 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 57 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 257 | 350 | 386 | 736 | 129 | 402 | 35 | 12 | 326 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 391 | 358 | 55 | 11 | 2 | 12 | 24 | 186 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 154 | 207 | 296 | 503 | 142 | 256 | 48 | 6 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ RAW | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 391 | 339 | 77 | 18 | 3 | 16 | 43 | 135 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 227 | 314 | 440 | 754 | 212 | 311 | 35 | 11 | 326 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 422 | 392 | 87 | 20 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 140 | 6 | 11 | 5 | 222 | 272 | 347 | 619 | 125 | 318 | 33 | 5 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 422 | 383 | 96 | 21 | 1 | 12 | 30 | 116 | 6 | 11 | 5 | 251 | 315 | 405 | 720 | 154 | 327 | 27 | 7 | 320 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 562 | 520 | 111 | 17 | 10 | 17 | 31 | 206 | 5 | 18 | 4 | 213 | 264 | 383 | 647 | 169 | 311 | 37 | 6 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 562 | 506 | 130 | 21 | 11 | 23 | 45 | 175 | 5 | 18 | 4 | 257 | 324 | 478 | 802 | 221 | 342 | 31 | 8 | 348 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 244 | 220 | 44 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 91 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 200 | 264 | 368 | 632 | 168 | 293 | 37 | 7 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA RAW | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 244 | 213 | 51 | 11 | 2 | 12 | 25 | 76 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 239 | 322 | 479 | 801 | 239 | 307 | 31 | 10 | 344 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Rays | — | 82 | 73 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 33 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 178 | 268 | 288 | 556 | 110 | 279 | 40 | 10 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 81 | 79 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 48 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 152 | 177 | 228 | 405 | 76 | 347 | 59 | 1 | 165 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 227 | 200 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 103 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 125 | 222 | 215 | 437 | 90 | 211 | 45 | 9 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 164 | 149 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 79 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 188 | 263 | 268 | 531 | 81 | 361 | 48 | 9 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 391 | 364 | 55 | 11 | 2 | 12 | 24 | 186 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 151 | 207 | 291 | 498 | 140 | 243 | 48 | 6 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 422 | 392 | 87 | 20 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 140 | 6 | 11 | 5 | 222 | 272 | 347 | 619 | 125 | 311 | 33 | 5 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 562 | 521 | 111 | 17 | 10 | 17 | 31 | 206 | 5 | 18 | 4 | 213 | 264 | 382 | 646 | 169 | 303 | 37 | 6 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 244 | 223 | 44 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 91 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 197 | 264 | 363 | 627 | 166 | 283 | 37 | 7 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 422 | 392 | 87 | 20 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 140 | 6 | 11 | 5 | 222 | 272 | 347 | 619 | 125 | 311 | 33 | 5 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 562 | 521 | 111 | 17 | 10 | 17 | 31 | 206 | 5 | 18 | 4 | 213 | 264 | 382 | 646 | 169 | 303 | 37 | 6 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 244 | 223 | 44 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 91 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 197 | 264 | 363 | 627 | 166 | 283 | 37 | 7 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | SD | 10% | 294 | 272 | 57 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 101 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 209 | 264 | 366 | 630 | 157 | 293 | 34 | 6 | 279 | 75 | -9 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +6 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | SD | 10% | 16 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 261 | 363 | 624 | 157 | 287 | 38 | 6 | 276 | 75 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | SD | 31% | 182 | 168 | 35 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 62 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 209 | 264 | 364 | 628 | 155 | 291 | 34 | 6 | 278 | 74 | -6 | +0 | -1 | -2 | +4 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | SD | 31% | 56 | 53 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 206 | 261 | 360 | 621 | 154 | 285 | 34 | 5 | 275 | 74 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 56 | 53 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 226 | 268 | 415 | 683 | 189 | 312 | 34 | 5 | 275 | 57 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 615 | 139 | 23 | 12 | 23 | 35 | 221 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 226 | 268 | 415 | 682 | 189 | 313 | 34 | 5 | 275 | 57 | -20 | +2 | -3 | -7 | +14 | -1.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2510 | 2298 | 441 | 84 | 22 | 64 | 158 | 1001 | 20 | 60 | 27 | 192 | 250 | 331 | 581 | 139 | 300 | 40 | 6 | 253 | 57 | -10 | +0 | -1 | -4 | +7 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 595 | 115 | 22 | 6 | 17 | 41 | 259 | 5 | 16 | 7 | 193 | 251 | 336 | 587 | 143 | 302 | 40 | 6 | 253 | 57 | -20 | +1 | -1 | -7 | +14 | -1.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 244 PAwOBA .338 → .274 (−64)K% 31.1% → 37.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.15% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 37.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.41% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.98% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.031 | ×1.018 | 18.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.03% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.031 | ×1.018 | 6.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.46% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.031 | ×1.018 | 1.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 6.24% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.
Result: wOBA .338 → .274; ISO .239 → .181; BABIP .307 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAARochester Red Wings · 402 PAwOBA .344 → .273 (−71)K% 33.8% → 39.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.83% | ÷1.028 | ×1.200 | — | — | 39.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.71% | ÷0.978 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 6.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.24% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.81% | ÷0.987 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 19.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.79% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 5.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.26% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 1.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.50% | ÷0.960 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 7.16% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 97, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 106, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .344 → .273; ISO .246 → .183; BABIP .327 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAHarrisburg Senators · 160 PAwOBA .331 → .297 (−34)K% 24.4% → 29.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.38% | ÷0.997 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.00% | ÷0.967 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 3.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.36% | ÷1.009 | ×0.970 | ×0.983 | ×0.998 | 24.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.45% | ÷0.887 | ×0.860 | ×0.983 | ×0.998 | 5.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.45% | ÷0.913 | ×0.950 | ×0.983 | ×0.998 | 5.57% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.82% | ÷0.963 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 1.47% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 102, 2B 77, 3B 83, K 99, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .331 → .297; ISO .161 → .148; BABIP .369 → .352. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 326 PAwOBA .328 → .285 (−43)K% 23.9% → 29.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.93% | ÷0.999 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.67% | ÷1.022 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 5.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.53% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 1.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.008 | ×0.920 | ×1.035 | ×1.012 | 21.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.80% | ÷0.972 | ×0.910 | ×1.035 | ×1.012 | 8.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.46% | ÷1.115 | ×0.880 | ×1.035 | ×1.012 | 0.38% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.17% | ÷0.958 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 3.52% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 102, 2B 94, 3B 123, K 100, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.
Result: wOBA .328 → .285; ISO .163 → .142; BABIP .325 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAADurham Bulls · 96 PAwOBA .260 → .208 (−52)K% 39.6% → 46.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 39.58% | ÷1.014 | ×1.200 | — | — | 46.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.21% | ÷0.971 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 3.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.04% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 1.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.45% | ÷0.985 | ×0.930 | ×0.992 | ×1.048 | 26.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.92% | ÷0.994 | ×0.830 | ×0.992 | ×1.048 | 3.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.992 | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.061 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 4.07% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 97, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 103, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .260 → .208; ISO .124 → .081; BABIP .333 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 391 PAwOBA .324 → .218 (−106)K% 34.5% → 47.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.53% | ÷0.950 | ×1.310 | — | — | 47.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.00% | ÷1.060 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 6.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.61% | ÷1.008 | ×0.870 | ×0.970 | ×0.998 | 16.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.82% | ÷1.047 | ×0.780 | ×0.970 | ×0.998 | 6.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.47% | ÷1.103 | ×0.850 | ×0.970 | ×0.998 | 1.10% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.84% | ÷1.066 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 6.46% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 102, 2B 109, 3B 121, K 90, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.
Result: wOBA .324 → .218; ISO .212 → .149; BABIP .311 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ACharleston RiverDogs · 164 PAwOBA .322 → .240 (−82)K% 34.8% → 48.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.76% | ÷0.985 | ×1.360 | — | — | 48.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.20% | ÷0.983 | ×0.690 | — | — | 8.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.92% | ÷0.970 | ×0.920 | ×1.005 | — | 27.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.84% | ÷1.066 | ×0.830 | ×1.005 | — | 8.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.053 | ×0.910 | ×1.005 | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.61% | ÷0.943 | ×0.800 | — | — | 3.07% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 94, 2B 113, 3B 111, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .322 → .240; ISO .129 → .090; BABIP .402 → .361. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ACharleston RiverDogs · 227 PAwOBA .283 → .208 (−75)K% 32.2% → 45.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.16% | ÷0.966 | ×1.360 | — | — | 45.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.66% | ÷1.028 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 9.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.76% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.95% | ÷0.968 | ×0.920 | ×0.987 | ×1.015 | 17.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.42% | ÷0.871 | ×0.830 | ×0.987 | ×1.015 | 3.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.987 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.84% | ÷1.026 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 5.41% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 94, 2B 74, 3B 130, K 93, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .283 → .208; ISO .147 → .103; BABIP .225 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).