Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | 32 | 0 | 31 | 144 | 36 | 15 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 12.3% | 6.2% | 1.3% | 5.23 | 3.83 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | 32 | 0 | 31 | 144 | 36 | 15 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 10.4% | 14.6% | 1.4% | 5.23 | 3.07 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 47 | 203 | 53 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.6% | 12.1% | 8.5% | 3.5% | 4.82 | 4.83 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 47 | 203 | 53 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.1% | 10.8% | 15.3% | 3.0% | 4.82 | 3.91 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 52 | 214 | 55 | 22 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 0.5% | 1.55 | 2.89 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 52 | 214 | 55 | 22 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.7% | 10.3% | 15.4% | 0.5% | 1.55 | 2.51 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 44 | 1 | 55 | 247 | 75 | 28 | 12 | 2% | 1.3 | 26.5% | 12.1% | 14.4% | 4.5% | 5.20 | 4.85 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 44 | 1 | 55 | 247 | 75 | 28 | 12 | 2% | 1.3 | 30.4% | 11.3% | 19.0% | 4.9% | 5.20 | 4.73 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 31 | 1 | 44 | 205 | 46 | 24 | 4 | 3% | 1.4 | 19.7% | 12.3% | 7.5% | 2.1% | 6.09 | 4.17 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | CWS | 35 | 0 | 37 | 157 | 38 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 11.2% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | CWS | 4 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.4% | 11.2% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 81 | 362 | 84 | 42 | 9 | — | — | 23.3% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 2.4% | 5.37 | 4.33 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 4 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 0 | — | — | 24.4% | 11.2% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 4.52 | 4.14 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 37 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 11.2% | 13.0% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 14 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 11.2% | 13.0% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 3.1% | 4.54 | 4.19 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 200 | 95 | 32 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.2% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 3.1% | 4.54 | 4.19 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 197 | 2 | 230 | 1013 | 222 | 121 | 26 | 1% | 1.2 | 21.9% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 2.5% | 4.47 | 4.15 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 172 | 2 | 200 | 882 | 193 | 105 | 22 | 1% | 1.2 | 21.9% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 2.5% | 4.47 | 4.15 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Adisyn Coffey (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 24.4% | 11.2% | 3.1% | — | 4.58 | 24.2% | 13.0% | 36 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.69 | 2.59 | 309 | 86 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.99 | 27.3% | 10.0% | 3.5% | .280 | 4.01 | 28.5% | 17.2% | 107 | +0.02 | 3.07 | 363 | 84 |
| Ryan Garton R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.71 | 25.2% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .252 | 4.13 | 23.5% | 10.8% | 108 | +0.42 | 3.15 | 307 | 84 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 3.2% | .230 | 3.59 | 23.5% | 7.2% | 40 | -0.49 | 2.74 | 188 | 84 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 24.9% | 14.5% | 2.7% | .360 | 5.09 | 15.3% | 3.1% | 58 | +0.79 | 3.42 | 173 | 83 |
| Grant Sides R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.89 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.1% | .247 | 3.24 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.65 | 3.24 | 159 | 83 |
| Spencer Patton R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.46 | 26.8% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .295 | 2.74 | 30.3% | 18.1% | 57 | -0.72 | 2.74 | 239 | 83 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.94 | 26.4% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .274 | 4.93 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 69 | +0.99 | 3.68 | 181 | 83 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.86 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.1% | .295 | 3.60 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.26 | 3.19 | 269 | 83 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.99 | 28.2% | 9.7% | 3.7% | .277 | 4.83 | 16.8% | 2.7% | 45 | +0.84 | 3.74 | 163 | 83 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2027 · 3.36 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.36 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.03 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.67 | 3.27 | 150 | 82 |
| Cole Sulser R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.43 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 1.7% | .321 | 2.78 | 28.2% | 18.4% | 140 | -0.65 | 2.29 | 538 | 82 |
| Holt Jones R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.13 | 24.2% | 11.4% | 3.0% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 217 | 82 |
| Jason Adam R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.39 | 24.2% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .237 | 2.64 | 33.1% | 24.9% | 88 | -0.75 | 2.45 | 394 | 82 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 82 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.51 | 23.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 121 | 81 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 81 |
| Hunter Parsons R 2025 · 5.03 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.03 | 22.8% | 10.9% | 4.5% | .274 | 6.73 | 25.5% | 9.0% | 29 | +1.70 | 4.95 | 183 | 81 |
| José Cisnero R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.40 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.7% | .367 | 4.02 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.38 | 2.28 | 279 | 81 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 37 | 24.3% | 11.2% | 1.20 | 4.53 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |