Patrick Bailey

C Cleveland Guardians

Age 28 S/R 6'0" / 223 lbs MLB Svc 2.791S2 · Ctrl thru 2030

Overview

MLB40-MANArb-1FA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	25	MLBSF	448	.234/.302/.339	8	4	84	4.8
2025	26	MLBSF	452	.222/.281/.325	6	1	71	3.8
2026	27	MLBCLE	345	.206/.274/.335	10	3	70	0.4
2027PROJ	28	MLBCLE	406	.218/.283/.337	9	3	75	1.5
2028PROJ	29	MLBCLE	401	.215/.280/.330	8	2	72	1.2
2029PROJ	30	MLBCLE	397	.212/.276/.322	8	1	69	0.9

Last 3 seasons WAR 9.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.791First FA2031Super-2

2027Arb-1$2M2028Arb-2$2M2029Arb-3$4M2030Ext$4M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Chase%90

Whiff%76

Bat Spd68

Avg EV62

xwOBA40

Barrel%34

Form.213/.284/.347 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .217/.281/.337

CompsMichael Papierski (age 28) · Griff Erickson (age 27) · Tres Barrera (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 7575vR 75

AVG/OBP/SLG.218 / .283 / .337

PA406

HR9

K%26

BB%8

BABIP278

ISO122

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$22M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

Whiff%

768.3%

xAVG

300.235

POWER40

Barrel%

346.1

Avg EV

6290.0

Bat Spd

6873.3

EYE50

Chase%

9021.8%

SPEED40

Sprint

1025.4

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%30%▼▼33% over 67 PA (60d) · proj 26%

BB%9%▲10% over 67 PA (60d) · proj 8%

ISO.134▲.172 over 58 AB (60d) · proj .120

HR/BB4.6%▲8.3% over 36 BBE (60d) · proj 3.4%

BABIP.281·.364 over 33 BIP (60d) · proj .278

SLASH.213/.284/.347·proj .217/.281/.337

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 960 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

218

742

—

wRC+

▶▶R

wOBA

232

281

▶▶R

ISO

069

106

▶▶R

BABIP

289

292

—

31.2%

23.9%

▶▶R

BB%

6.4%

8.0%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.791 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$2M	+1.7	$14M	+$11M
2028	Arb-2	$2M	+1.2	$9M	+$7M
2029	Arb-3	$4M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.3M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$8M		$26M	+$18M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	22	A+	Eugene Emeralds	—	155	135	25	9	0	2	18	43	2	6	0	185	290	296	587	111	256	28	12	274	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A	San Jose Giants	—	207	177	57	16	0	7	28	47	1	1	1	322	417	531	949	209	403	23	14	416	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	56	48	14	3	0	1	7	17	0	0	0	292	382	417	798	125	419	30	12	355	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+	Eugene Emeralds	—	325	267	60	14	1	12	49	72	2	1	1	225	349	419	769	195	253	22	15	339	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	353	326	76	18	1	7	21	100	3	1	0	233	286	359	645	126	314	28	6	287	84	-7	+0	+26	+8	+8	3.6
2023	24	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	60	51	11	1	0	2	7	15	1	1	0	216	322	353	675	137	257	25	12	305	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	60	54	18	2	0	2	6	13	0	2	0	333	400	481	881	148	410	22	10	393	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	448	401	94	16	1	8	39	100	0	4	0	234	302	339	641	105	287	22	9	287	84	-9	+1	+37	+8	+10	4.8
2025	26	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	452	409	91	18	3	6	30	133	3	1	0	222	281	325	606	103	308	29	7	269	71	-16	+0	+35	+8	+10	3.8
2026	27	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	—	345	310	64	8	1	10	28	92	1	3	0	206	274	335	610	129	256	27	8	272	70	-12	+1	+2	+6	+7	0.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1598	1446	325	60	6	31	118	425	7	9	0	225	286	339	625	114	292	27	7	279	75	-48	+2	+100	+31	+35	12.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	22	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	—	155	140	20	6	0	2	13	54	2	6	0	143	226	229	454	86	213	35	8	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A MLE	San Jose Giants	—	207	189	46	12	0	5	16	67	1	1	1	243	306	386	692	143	342	32	8	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	—	325	281	52	12	1	9	35	95	2	1	1	185	280	331	611	146	221	29	11	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	353	326	78	18	1	8	21	100	3	1	0	239	291	374	666	135	314	28	6	292	84	-7	+0	+26	+8	+8	3.6
2023	24	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	60	53	10	1	0	1	5	17	1	1	0	189	271	264	535	75	246	28	8	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	60	56	18	2	0	2	4	16	0	2	0	321	367	464	831	143	402	27	7	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	448	401	96	16	1	9	39	100	0	4	0	239	307	352	658	112	287	22	9	292	84	-9	+1	+37	+8	+10	4.8
2025	26	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	452	409	92	18	3	6	30	133	3	1	0	225	283	328	610	103	308	29	7	273	71	-16	+0	+35	+8	+10	3.8
2026	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	—	345	310	64	8	1	10	28	92	1	3	0	206	274	335	610	129	256	27	8	272	70	-12	+1	+2	+6	+7	0.4
2021	22	A MLE	3 teams	—	418	379	76	21	0	8	34	139	3	7	1	201	272	319	591	119	291	33	8	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A RAW	3 teams	—	418	360	96	28	0	10	53	107	3	7	1	267	365	428	793	161	351	26	13	355	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	—	325	281	52	12	1	9	35	95	2	1	1	185	280	331	611	146	234	29	11	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Eugene Emeralds	—	325	267	60	14	1	12	49	72	2	1	1	225	349	419	769	195	253	22	15	339	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	473	435	106	21	1	11	30	133	4	4	0	244	299	372	671	129	324	28	6	295	86	-8	+1	+26	+8	+10	3.8
2023	24	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	473	431	105	21	1	11	34	128	4	4	0	244	305	374	678	130	320	27	7	303	86	-8	+1	+26	+8	+10	3.8
2024	25	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	448	401	96	16	1	9	39	100	0	4	0	239	307	352	658	112	291	22	9	292	84	-9	+1	+37	+8	+10	4.8
2024	25	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	—	448	401	94	16	1	8	39	100	0	4	0	234	302	339	641	105	287	22	9	287	84	-9	+1	+37	+8	+10	4.8
2025	26	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	452	409	92	18	3	6	30	133	3	1	0	225	283	328	610	103	312	29	7	273	71	-16	+0	+35	+8	+10	3.8
2025	26	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	—	452	409	91	18	3	6	30	133	3	1	0	222	281	325	606	103	308	29	7	269	71	-16	+0	+35	+8	+10	3.8
2026	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	—	345	310	64	8	1	10	28	92	1	3	0	206	274	335	610	129	256	27	8	272	70	-12	+1	+2	+6	+7	0.4
2026	27	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	—	345	310	64	8	1	10	28	92	1	3	0	206	274	335	610	129	256	27	8	272	70	-12	+1	+2	+6	+7	0.4
2021	22	A MLE	3 teams	—	418	378	76	21	0	8	34	139	3	7	1	201	272	320	592	119	287	33	8	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	—	325	285	52	12	1	9	35	95	2	1	1	182	280	326	606	144	221	29	11	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	473	436	106	21	1	11	30	133	4	4	0	243	299	372	670	128	316	28	6	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	448	406	96	16	1	9	39	100	0	4	0	236	307	347	654	111	287	22	9	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	452	416	92	18	3	6	30	133	3	1	0	221	283	322	605	101	308	29	7	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	—	345	313	64	8	1	10	28	92	1	3	0	204	274	332	607	128	256	27	8	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	25	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	448	406	96	16	1	9	39	100	0	4	0	236	307	347	654	111	287	22	9	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	452	416	92	18	3	6	30	133	3	1	0	221	283	322	605	101	308	29	7	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	—	345	313	64	8	1	10	28	92	1	3	0	204	274	332	607	128	256	27	8	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	28	MLB MLE	CLE	100%	406	369	81	14	2	9	32	106	2	3	1	218	283	338	621	120	278	26	8	279	75	-12	+0	+10	+7	+9	1.7
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	28	MLB CTX	CLE	100%	406	369	81	14	2	9	32	106	2	3	1	218	283	337	620	119	278	26	8	279	75	-12	+0	+10	+7	+9	1.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	CLE	100%	401	365	78	13	2	8	31	106	2	2	1	215	280	331	611	116	276	26	8	275	72	-13	+0	+9	+7	+9	1.2
2029	30	MLB MLE	CLE	100%	397	362	77	13	2	8	31	106	1	1	1	212	276	323	599	111	274	27	8	270	69	-15	-0	+8	+7	+9	0.9
2028	29	MLB CTX	CLE	100%	401	365	78	13	2	8	31	106	2	2	1	215	280	330	611	115	277	26	8	275	72	-13	+0	+9	+7	+9	1.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	CLE	100%	397	362	76	13	1	8	31	106	1	1	1	212	276	322	599	110	274	27	8	270	69	-15	-0	+8	+7	+9	0.9
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2396	2173	479	86	9	47	180	637	10	12	2	220	283	333	616	113	286	27	8	277	74	-76	+2	+117	+45	+52	14.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	590	129	23	2	13	49	173	3	3	1	219	282	331	613	112	283	27	8	277	74	-21	+0	+32	+12	+14	3.9
Career	—	MLE		—	3665	3311	722	136	13	78	290	1010	18	26	5	218	285	338	622	120	285	28	8	277	74	-88	+2	+128	+52	+61	15.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	587	128	24	2	14	51	179	3	5	1	218	283	337	621	119	285	28	8	277	74	-20	+0	+30	+12	+14	3.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tyler Flowerslast yr '20 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,741 PA	4.1	2,741	86	2	238	319	394	+49	+142	27.5	25.8
/162	664	21	0	+11.9	+34.4	6.7	pk7: 24
#2José Molinalast yr '14 AS×6SS career totals — 13 seasons, 2,732 PA	4.1	2,732	37	20	232	281	324	+47	+235	26.6	24.4
/162	664	9	5	+11.4	+57.1	6.5	pk7: 22
#3Roberto Pérezlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,752 PA	2.6	1,752	55	2	207	298	360	+31	+105	15.9	15.5
/162	664	21	1	+11.9	+39.7	6.0	pk7: 15
#4Fred Kendall'69-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,823 PA	4.3	2,823	31	5	231*	283*	340*	+48	+1	5.0	5.9
/162	664	7	1	+11.2	+0.1	1.2	pk7: 7
#5John Henry'10-'18 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,245 PA	3.4	2,245	2	55	204*	298*	310*	+35	+3	3.8	4.4
/162	664	1	16	+10.4	+0.9	1.1	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.2	2,802	56	14	220	280	335	+50	+175	4.0	4.0
/162	664	13	3	+11.9	+41.5	1.0	pk7: 4
#6Gabby Street'04-'31 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,677 PA	2.5	1,677	2	17	210*	281*	325*	+30	+0	3.1	3.3
/162	664	1	7	+11.8	+0.0	1.2	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Patrick Bailey (OGILVIE)	28	45	40	40	50	216/281/335	119	278	9	3	26%	8%	75	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Michael Papierski 2024 · MLB	28	43→45	43→40	41→40	50	213/292/317	105	271	11	3	25%	9%	75	-0.5	217/295/325	108	281	10	6	25%	9%	78	-0.3	198/286/286	88	257	7	2	24%	10%	65	-0.7
✕Griff Erickson 2015 · AAA	27	43→50	47→45	39→40	47	216/285/353	137	270	15	4	26%	8%	80	-0.1	216/278/331	115	269	11	7	23%	7%	73	-0.6	192/255/274	82	234	7	2	21%	6%	49	-0.9
✕Tres Barrera 2023 · MLB	28	43→44	43→45	40	46	214/281/318	103	271	11	3	24%	7%	71	-0.8	201/265/305	104	256	12	5	25%	7%	62	-1.4	169/235/249	80	216	11	2	27%	7%	36	-1.4
✕Sergio Alcántara 2024 · MLB	28	45→55	44→45	46→50	47	220/289/332	112	295	12	4	28%	9%	77	-0.3	218/300/316	98	291	7	7	25%	10%	77	-0.3	211/302/300	89	282	4	8	24%	11%	72	-0.4
✕Michael Pérez 2021 · MLB	28	42	47→50	40	46	215/281/347	132	274	15	4	27%	8%	78	-0.3	183/254/320	137	231	17	4	29%	8%	62	-1.4	167/242/278	111	213	15	1	29%	8%	47	-1.1
✕Jesus Alberto Vega 2010 · AAA	28	45	43→45	41→40	43	222/281/335	114	280	11	3	24%	6%	74	-0.5	219/278/334	115	269	12	5	23%	6%	74	-0.6	216/275/342	126	259	16	2	23%	6%	71	-0.3
✕Luke Carlin 2010 · MLB	29	47	42→45	41→45	51	223/306/330	106	300	9	6	27%	10%	83	+0.1	217/294/318	101	276	10	6	23%	9%	76	-0.4	201/280/283	82	248	8	3	21%	9%	62	-0.6
✕Danny Mendick 2022 · MLB	28	46→47	43→45	43→50	47	229/290/338	109	280	12	8	22%	7%	78	-0.3	232/292/351	119	285	13	12	22%	7%	82	+0.0	224/281/347	123	270	13	15	22%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Jose Lobatón 2013 · MLB	28	47	44→45	42→30	52	227/306/345	119	290	11	3	25%	10%	86	+0.3	232/300/349	117	297	11	3	24%	9%	84	+0.2	229/295/336	108	291	11	0	24%	8%	80	-0.0
✕Francisco Cordoba 2012 · AAA	28	46→52	44→45	40	44	226/281/341	115	288	12	7	26%	7%	76	-0.4	230/278/341	111	288	12	4	24%	5%	74	-0.5	236/284/343	107	290	12	1	23%	5%	74	-0.3
✕Sandy León 2017 · MLB	28	50→56	43→45	42→30	46	242/299/354	113	303	11	3	24%	7%	85	+0.2	215/273/332	117	271	13	3	25%	7%	71	-0.8	180/259/256	76	243	8	0	28%	9%	48	-0.7
✕Yariel Gonzalez 2022 · AAA	28	44→51	48→45	41→45	43	224/273/354	129	277	17	5	26%	6%	76	-0.4	211/261/325	114	268	13	8	26%	6%	65	-1.2	186/234/280	94	231	11	7	24%	5%	42	-1.9
✕Wynston Sawyer 2019 · AAA	27	47	43→45	42→45	47	226/302/335	109	286	10	5	24%	8%	83	+0.1	218/282/326	108	308	9	6	30%	6%	73	-0.6	198/257/305	106	300	6	0	34%	4%	55	-0.6
✕Nevin Ashley 2013 · AAA	28	47→50	44→45	44→45	44	230/296/347	117	291	11	6	24%	6%	83	+0.1	221/283/330	109	284	10	5	25%	6%	74	-0.5	215/282/312	96	281	9	1	25%	6%	67	-0.5
✕Koyie Hill 2008 · MLB	29	44→42	42→45	44→40	46	215/269/324	109	261	9	5	21%	7%	68	-1.0	222/273/344	122	285	11	4	25%	6%	74	-0.6	217/267/331	114	284	10	2	26%	6%	67	-0.6
✕Beau Taylor 2018 · AAA	28	47→48	41→45	42→30	46	227/292/324	97	306	9	3	28%	8%	76	-0.4	215/299/326	111	311	10	4	31%	10%	80	-0.2	200/291/300	100	292	9	1	32%	10%	69	-0.5
✕Chuckie Robinson 2023 · MLB	28	43→53	45	45	41	216/266/332	116	273	13	7	26%	6%	68	-1.0	225/272/327	102	293	11	6	26%	5%	69	-0.9	224/272/312	88	296	10	4	27%	5%	63	-0.8
✕Tomas Perez 2002 · MLB	28	52→44	44→45	43→40	46	254/302/377	124	293	11	6	18%	6%	91	+0.7	245/287/380	135	283	13	4	18%	5%	86	+0.3	237/273/376	139	273	13	1	18%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Carlos Corporán 2011 · AAA	27	43	45	44→40	39	213/263/336	122	274	12	5	26%	4%	68	-1.0	220/271/343	123	283	13	4	26%	4%	73	-0.6	232/287/369	136	283	18	1	24%	5%	86	+0.1
✕Humberto Sosa 2015 · AAA	29	44→48	45	43→45	45	220/268/340	121	264	13	5	22%	6%	71	-0.8	218/260/309	91	274	10	5	23%	5%	60	-1.6	203/254/315	112	253	14	2	25%	6%	58	-0.6

Patrick Bailey

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps