Michel Otañez — OGILVIE

Michel Otañez P Round Rock Express

Age 29 RHP 6'4" / 218 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 53 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9990vR 82

ERA3.37

FIP3.44

K%35.7%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%22.3%

ROS IP53

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF8080

CTRL2525

CMD7070

K†8080

SI (36%)

SL-1.4 (36%)

FB-2.2 (64%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets 1	5	5	21	90	21	6	0	100%	4.3	15.9%	8.3%	7.5%	0.0%	4.64	2.82	—
2016	19	ROK RAW	DSL Mets 1	5	5	21	90	21	6	0	100%	4.3	23.3%	6.7%	16.7%	0.0%	4.64	1.98	—
2018	21	ROK MLE	GCL Mets	11	7	35	180	33	24	2	64%	3.2	12.5%	16.7%	-4.2%	1.6%	7.64	5.01	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	GCL Mets	11	7	35	180	33	24	2	64%	3.2	18.3%	13.3%	5.0%	1.1%	7.64	4.01	—
2021	24	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	35	0	40	192	58	41	3	0%	1.2	23.3%	24.6%	-1.3%	2.1%	5.13	5.41	—
2021	24	A+ RAW	Brooklyn Cyclones	35	0	40	192	58	41	3	0%	1.2	30.2%	21.4%	8.9%	1.6%	5.13	4.24	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	45	215	58	39	4	0%	1.0	23.1%	19.2%	3.9%	2.0%	4.84	4.67	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	45	215	58	39	4	0%	1.0	27.0%	18.1%	8.8%	1.9%	4.84	4.29	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	37	173	61	28	3	0%	1.2	29.3%	15.2%	14.1%	1.0%	6.08	3.08	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	37	173	61	28	3	0%	1.2	29.3%	15.2%	14.1%	1.0%	6.08	3.08	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	37	173	61	28	3	0%	1.2	35.3%	16.2%	19.1%	1.7%	6.08	3.13	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	0	71	322	110	45	4	0%	1.1	31.3%	13.2%	18.1%	1.4%	4.44	2.88	+1.4
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	0	71	322	110	45	4	0%	1.1	31.3%	13.2%	18.1%	1.4%	4.44	2.88	+1.4
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	65	0	71	322	110	45	4	0%	1.1	34.2%	14.0%	20.2%	1.2%	4.44	2.64	+1.6
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	0	23	118	34	23	4	0%	0.9	24.8%	17.6%	7.2%	2.1%	8.87	4.41	+0.0
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	0	23	118	34	23	4	0%	0.9	24.8%	17.6%	7.2%	2.1%	8.87	4.41	+0.0
2025	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	0	23	118	34	23	4	0%	0.9	28.8%	19.5%	9.3%	3.4%	8.87	5.37	-0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			42	0	39	179	61	25	4	0%	0.9	34.1%	14.0%	20.1%	2.2%	4.81	3.23	+0.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	49	0	53	227	70	42	7	0%	1.1	25.6%	16.7%	8.9%	3.4%	4.58	4.91	—
YTD	29	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	49	0	53	227	70	42	7	0%	1.1	25.6%	16.7%	8.9%	3.4%	4.58	4.91	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AAA RAW	TEX	49	0	53	227	70	42	7	0%	1.1	30.8%	18.5%	12.3%	3.1%	4.58	4.53	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	TEX	48	0	50	212	72	28	5	0%	1.0	33.8%	13.4%	20.5%	2.6%	3.62	3.73	+0.5
2028	31	MLB MLE	TEX	45	0	47	198	64	26	6	0%	1.0	32.3%	13.4%	18.9%	2.8%	3.87	4.01	+0.3
2029	32	MLB MLE	TEX	41	0	43	183	57	25	6	0%	1.1	31.0%	13.6%	17.5%	3.1%	4.12	4.28	+0.1
2027	30	MLB CTX	TEX	17	0	18	76	26	10	2	0%	1.1	33.8%	13.4%	20.5%	2.6%	3.62	3.73	+0.2
2028	31	MLB CTX	TEX	25	0	26	110	35	15	3	0%	1.0	32.3%	13.4%	18.9%	2.8%	3.87	4.01	+0.2
2029	32	MLB CTX	TEX	28	0	29	122	38	17	4	0%	1.0	31.0%	13.6%	17.5%	3.1%	4.12	4.28	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		112	0	113	490	161	67	13	0%	1.0	32.9%	13.6%	19.2%	2.6%	4.22	3.50	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		199	0	200	867	285	119	23	0%	1.0	32.9%	13.6%	19.2%	2.6%	4.22	3.50	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		267	12	326	1517	370	253	27	4%	1.2	24.4%	16.7%	7.7%	1.8%	5.47	4.15	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		164	7	200	931	227	155	17	4%	1.2	24.4%	16.7%	7.7%	1.8%	5.47	4.15	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michel Otañez (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.44	35.7%	13.5%	2.3%	—	3.99	32.4%	19.0%	140	+0.55	—	—	—
Jason Adam R 2021 · 2.55 FIP	29	SU	2.55	38.0%	12.0%	2.1%	.375	2.72	30.3%	23.1%	191	+0.17	2.42	394	76
Armando Rivero R 2016 · 2.70 FIP	28	SU	2.70	32.9%	13.1%	1.3%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	125	69
Dellin Betances R 2017 · 2.59 FIP	29	SU	2.59	38.3%	16.9%	1.1%	.228	2.29	38.8%	28.3%	78	-0.30	1.59	308	68
Spencer Patton R 2016 · 2.79 FIP	28	SU	2.79	30.3%	12.2%	1.3%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	239	66
Kaleb Ort R 2021 · 2.91 FIP	29	SU	2.91	27.3%	9.4%	1.7%	.310	3.99	24.5%	15.1%	157	+1.08	1.75	421	66
Brad Goldberg R 2018 · 3.14 FIP	28	SU	3.14	30.3%	17.0%	0.8%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	197	65
Pierce Johnson R 2020 · 3.01 FIP	29	SU	3.01	33.8%	11.3%	2.4%	.310	3.28	32.1%	21.7%	136	+0.27	2.75	593	65
Robert Suarez R 2022 · 2.92 FIP	31	SU	2.92	31.9%	11.0%	2.0%	.238	3.15	24.9%	19.3%	162	+0.23	1.95	289	65
Jon Edwards R 2018 · 2.40 FIP	30	SU	2.40	30.3%	7.7%	1.6%	.304	4.43	25.1%	13.5%	49	+2.03	2.40	132	65
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	65
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	159	64
Trevor May R 2019 · 3.43 FIP	29	SU	3.43	29.7%	9.4%	3.0%	.227	3.57	32.0%	24.4%	111	+0.14	3.05	432	64
Caleb Simpson R 2021 · 3.57 FIP	29	SU	3.57	30.3%	12.0%	2.7%	.226	5.42	17.8%	1.3%	52	+1.85	3.57	197	64
Taylor Williams R 2020 · 2.51 FIP	29	SU	2.51	29.9%	9.0%	1.5%	.325	4.24	18.9%	8.2%	126	+1.73	2.51	309	63
Pedro Strop R 2015 · 2.70 FIP	30	SU	2.70	30.0%	8.5%	1.9%	.211	2.90	26.9%	18.5%	167	+0.20	2.56	277	63
Adam Ottavino R 2016 · 2.53 FIP	30	SU	2.53	32.7%	6.5%	2.5%	.242	3.05	31.7%	19.3%	197	+0.52	2.10	488	63
Chris Hatcher R 2015 · 2.92 FIP	30	SU	2.92	27.1%	6.6%	2.3%	.292	4.67	22.6%	14.0%	137	+1.75	2.92	176	62
Brooks Kriske R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	29	SU	4.20	30.1%	10.0%	4.3%	.379	3.75	28.2%	16.0%	127	-0.45	3.15	246	61
J.J. Hoover R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	27.4%	12.7%	3.5%	.360	6.40	17.2%	8.0%	96	+2.08	4.22	258	61
Alex Phillips R 2022 · 4.32 FIP	27	SU	4.32	30.2%	12.9%	3.9%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	139	61

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	48	33.4%	13.4%	1.04	3.72
José Leclerc ('24)	1.7	57	31.6%	12.8%	0.76	3.33
Corey Knebel ('22)	1.4	47	32.3%	11.2%	0.95	3.04
Carl Edwards Jr. ('23)	1.2	50	28.7%	12.4%	0.76	3.05
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Adam Ottavino ('24)	2.3	59	29.3%	11.4%	0.86	3.18