Michel Otañez
P
Round Rock Express
Age 29
RHP
6'4" / 218 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION33 act + 53 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10091vR 82
ERA3.41
FIP3.52
K%36.4%
BB%14.8%
K-BB%21.6%
ROS IP53
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 87 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
SI (36%)
SL-1.4 (36%)
FB-2.2 (64%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | DSL Mets 1 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 90 | 21 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 4.3 | 15.9% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 0.0% | 4.64 | 2.82 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | DSL Mets 1 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 90 | 21 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 4.3 | 23.3% | 6.7% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 4.64 | 1.98 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | GCL Mets | 11 | 7 | 35 | 180 | 33 | 24 | 2 | 64% | 3.2 | 12.5% | 16.7% | -4.2% | 1.6% | 7.64 | 5.01 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | GCL Mets | 11 | 7 | 35 | 180 | 33 | 24 | 2 | 64% | 3.2 | 18.3% | 13.3% | 5.0% | 1.1% | 7.64 | 4.01 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 35 | 0 | 40 | 192 | 58 | 41 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.3% | 24.6% | -1.3% | 2.3% | 5.13 | 5.51 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 35 | 0 | 40 | 192 | 58 | 41 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 30.2% | 21.4% | 8.9% | 1.6% | 5.13 | 4.24 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 45 | 215 | 58 | 39 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 19.2% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 4.84 | 4.63 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 45 | 215 | 58 | 39 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.0% | 18.1% | 8.8% | 1.9% | 4.84 | 4.29 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 0 | 37 | 173 | 61 | 28 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 29.3% | 15.2% | 14.1% | 0.7% | 6.08 | 2.93 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 0 | 37 | 173 | 61 | 28 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 35.3% | 16.2% | 19.1% | 1.7% | 6.08 | 3.13 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 65 | 0 | 71 | 322 | 110 | 45 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 32.1% | 14.4% | 17.7% | 1.3% | 4.44 | 2.94 | +1.5 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 65 | 0 | 71 | 322 | 110 | 45 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 34.2% | 14.0% | 20.2% | 1.2% | 4.44 | 2.64 | +1.8 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 0 | 23 | 118 | 34 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.3% | 20.5% | 5.8% | 1.9% | 8.87 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 0 | 23 | 118 | 34 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 28.8% | 19.5% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 8.87 | 5.37 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 31 | 0 | 33 | 154 | 48 | 32 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.4% | 21.8% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 6.48 | 5.51 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | TEX | 51 | 0 | 53 | 225 | 82 | 33 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 36.4% | 14.8% | 21.6% | 2.3% | 3.41 | 3.52 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | TEX | 5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 36.4% | 14.8% | 21.6% | 2.3% | 3.41 | 3.52 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 87 | 379 | 130 | 65 | 10 | — | — | 34.3% | 17.2% | 17.1% | 2.7% | 4.59 | 4.28 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 5 | 23 | 8 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 36.4% | 14.8% | 21.6% | 2.3% | 3.41 | 3.14 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 48 | 0 | 50 | 212 | 73 | 31 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 34.4% | 14.5% | 19.9% | 2.5% | 3.68 | 3.81 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 65 | 29 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.8% | 14.4% | 18.4% | 2.8% | 3.93 | 4.07 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 41 | 0 | 43 | 183 | 58 | 27 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.6% | 14.6% | 17.0% | 3.1% | 4.18 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 17 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 26 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 34.4% | 14.5% | 19.9% | 2.5% | 3.68 | 3.81 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 36 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.8% | 14.4% | 18.4% | 2.8% | 3.93 | 4.07 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 39 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.6% | 14.6% | 17.0% | 3.1% | 4.18 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 117 | 0 | 118 | 512 | 171 | 73 | 13 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.4% | 14.3% | 19.0% | 2.6% | 4.22 | 3.53 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 198 | 0 | 200 | 866 | 289 | 123 | 22 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.4% | 14.3% | 19.0% | 2.6% | 4.22 | 3.53 | +4.4 | ||
| Career | — | 249 | 12 | 306 | 1444 | 358 | 256 | 25 | 5% | 1.2 | 24.8% | 17.7% | 7.1% | 1.7% | 5.73 | 4.18 | +4.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 163 | 8 | 200 | 943 | 234 | 167 | 16 | 5% | 1.2 | 24.8% | 17.7% | 7.1% | 1.7% | 5.73 | 4.18 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Michel Otañez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.52 | 36.4% | 14.8% | 2.3% | — | 4.06 | 33.0% | 18.5% | 140 | +0.54 | — | — | — |
| Jason Adam R 2026 · 2.48 FIP | 29 | SU | 2.48 | 38.0% | 12.0% | 1.9% | .375 | 2.78 | 30.3% | 23.1% | 191 | +0.30 | 2.45 | 394 | 74 |
| Dellin Betances R 2026 · 2.59 FIP | 29 | SU | 2.59 | 38.3% | 16.9% | 1.1% | .228 | 2.28 | 38.8% | 28.3% | 78 | -0.31 | 1.58 | 308 | 72 |
| Armando Rivero R 2025 · 2.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.81 | 32.9% | 13.1% | 1.5% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 125 | 69 |
| Brad Goldberg R 2025 · 3.17 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.17 | 30.3% | 17.0% | 0.9% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 197 | 67 |
| Spencer Patton R 2025 · 2.74 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.74 | 30.3% | 12.2% | 1.2% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.74 | 239 | 65 |
| Kaleb Ort R 2026 · 2.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 2.73 | 27.3% | 9.4% | 1.3% | .310 | 3.99 | 24.9% | 14.9% | 157 | +1.26 | 1.75 | 404 | 64 |
| Robert Suarez R 2028 · 3.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.03 | 31.9% | 11.0% | 2.2% | .238 | 3.29 | 24.9% | 19.3% | 162 | +0.26 | 1.93 | 289 | 64 |
| Pierce Johnson R 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.15 | 33.8% | 11.3% | 2.7% | .310 | 3.34 | 32.1% | 21.7% | 136 | +0.19 | 2.83 | 577 | 64 |
| Caleb Simpson R 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.28 | 30.3% | 12.0% | 2.2% | .226 | 5.59 | 17.9% | 0.3% | 52 | +2.31 | 3.28 | 197 | 63 |
| Yariel Rodríguez R 2026 · 2.60 FIP | 29 | SU | 2.60 | 34.1% | 18.8% | 0.0% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.60 | 196 | 62 |
| Trevor May R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.42 | 29.7% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .227 | 3.57 | 32.0% | 24.4% | 111 | +0.15 | 3.04 | 432 | 62 |
| Brooks Kriske R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.41 | 31.9% | 11.7% | 4.6% | .379 | 3.78 | 29.7% | 15.9% | 127 | -0.63 | 3.00 | 246 | 62 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 2.59 FIP | 29 | SU | 2.59 | 29.9% | 9.0% | 1.6% | .325 | 4.14 | 19.1% | 7.9% | 126 | +1.55 | 2.59 | 309 | 61 |
| Nick Burdi R 2027 · 3.16 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.16 | 31.9% | 16.2% | 1.3% | .349 | 2.94 | 27.3% | 14.6% | 52 | -0.22 | 2.68 | 152 | 61 |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.45 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 4.3% | .299 | 3.95 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 19 | -0.50 | 3.53 | 134 | 61 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.26 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .360 | 6.54 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 96 | +2.28 | 4.26 | 258 | 61 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.97 | 27.4% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .280 | 4.04 | 27.7% | 19.7% | 22 | +0.07 | 3.97 | 281 | 61 |
| Pedro Strop R 2027 · 2.64 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.64 | 30.0% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .211 | 2.84 | 26.9% | 18.5% | 167 | +0.20 | 2.48 | 277 | 61 |
| Daniel Robert R 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.09 | 27.2% | 8.1% | 2.3% | .190 | 3.23 | 24.4% | 14.2% | 43 | +0.14 | 2.16 | 186 | 61 |
| Matt Seelinger R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.42 | 34.2% | 9.1% | 3.7% | .275 | 4.13 | 25.0% | 14.3% | 105 | +0.71 | 3.06 | 349 | 61 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 48 | 33.9% | 14.6% | 1.02 | 3.78 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| José Leclerc ('24) | 6 | 57 | 31.6% | 12.8% | 0.76 | 3.33 |
| Carl Edwards Jr. ('23) | 5 | 50 | 28.7% | 12.4% | 0.76 | 3.05 |
| Corey Knebel ('22) | 6 | 47 | 32.3% | 11.2% | 0.95 | 3.04 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Jake Diekman ('24) | 9 | 51 | 28.6% | 13.8% | 0.91 | 4.07 |