Edwin Uceta — OGILVIE

Edwin Uceta P Montgomery Biscuits

+0.3 WAR

INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)

Age 28 RHP 6'0" / 210 lbs AA peak 0.8 · 2027

ERA3.44

FIP3.71

xFIP3.43

SIERA2.84

K%30.0%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%22.0%

IP64

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.8peak

2027

STUF7070

CTRL5555

CMD7575

K†7070

FB Velo

p4394.0

Whiff%

p9035.6%

p9032.1%

xwOBA vs

p560.306

CH+3.9 (39%)

FB+3.0 (42%)

SI (2%)

SL-1.6 (3%)

CT-2.0 (16%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2016	18	ROK	DSL Dodgers 1	11	3	31	118	28	3	1	16.1%	3.2%	1.2%	1.72	2.79	+0.8
2017	19	ROK	Ogden Raptors	14	14	56	243	62	14	8	17.3%	7.2%	4.6%	6.59	5.08	-0.1
2018	20	A+	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	25	25	120	502	131	39	16	19.5%	9.1%	3.7%	3.89	4.62	+0.9
2019	21	AA	Tulsa Drillers	26	24	123	523	141	47	11	21.3%	10.0%	2.7%	2.77	4.06	+1.7
2021	23	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	25	5	50	224	65	24	7	26.4%	11.2%	3.1%	5.40	3.97	+0.6
2022	24	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	38	5	67	287	83	35	11	26.0%	12.7%	4.3%	5.10	4.89	+0.1
2023	25	MLB	New York Mets	13	2	16	73	8	13	5	5.0%	21.8%	10.6%	5.74	11.28	-1.1
2024	26	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	52	0	76	317	104	24	10	31.0%	7.8%	3.2%	3.43	3.24	+1.6
2025	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	70	0	76	321	103	24	11	32.1%	7.5%	3.3%	3.79	3.17	+1.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	28	AAA	Durham Bulls	4	0	4	18	7	0	1	—	—	—	6.23	—	—
ROS	28	MLB	TB	19	—	19	81	25	5	3	31.0%	6.6%	3.2%	3.04	3.44	+0.3
2026 Total	28	MLB	TB	—	—	24	99	32	5	4	32.4%	5.4%	3.6%	3.63	2.81	+0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	29	MLB	TB	11	11	62	264	81	18	9	30.5%	6.7%	3.2%	3.33	3.52	+1.0
2028	30	MLB	TB	11	11	61	256	77	17	8	30.0%	6.8%	3.3%	3.50	3.61	+0.9
2029	31	MLB	TB	58	—	58	247	73	17	8	29.4%	6.9%	3.4%	3.63	3.71	+0.8
2030	32	MLB	TB	56	—	56	237	68	17	8	28.8%	7.1%	3.4%	3.75	3.83	+0.7
2031	33	MLB	TB	54	—	54	227	64	16	8	28.1%	7.2%	3.5%	3.87	3.96	+0.6
2032	34	MLB	TB	51	—	51	215	59	16	8	27.4%	7.4%	3.6%	4.01	4.10	+0.5
2033	35	MLB	TB	48	—	48	203	54	16	8	26.7%	7.7%	3.7%	4.15	4.25	+0.4
2034	36	MLB	TB	45	—	45	190	49	15	7	25.9%	7.9%	3.9%	4.31	4.41	+0.3
2035	37	MLB	TB	42	—	42	176	44	14	7	25.1%	8.2%	4.0%	4.47	4.58	+0.2
2036	38	MLB	TB	38	—	38	162	39	14	7	24.2%	8.5%	4.1%	4.65	4.77	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			278	78	620	2626	616	246	94	23.5%	9.3%	3.6%	4.05	4.27	+7.2
/ 200 IP	—			90	25	200	847	199	79	30	23.5%	9.3%	3.6%	4.05	4.27	+2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Edwin Uceta (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.44	31.0%	6.6%	3.2%	—	3.61	30.0%	23.2%	182	+0.17	—	—	—
Cody Allen R 2026 · 3.20 FIP	28	SW	3.20	32.6%	7.4%	3.5%	.300	4.96	27.0%	14.6%	90	+1.76	1.58	295	79
John Brebbia R 2026 · 3.20 FIP	28	SW	3.20	30.0%	6.4%	3.3%	.317	3.13	29.3%	22.2%	106	-0.07	2.96	523	78
Chris Hatcher R 2028 · 2.93 FIP	30	SU	2.93	27.1%	6.6%	2.3%	.292	4.62	22.6%	14.0%	137	+1.69	2.93	176	75
Adam Ottavino R 2028 · 2.61 FIP	30	SU	2.61	32.7%	6.5%	2.6%	.242	3.08	31.7%	19.3%	197	+0.47	2.15	488	75
AJ Ramos R 2026 · 2.90 FIP	28	SW	2.90	31.4%	9.4%	2.3%	.247	3.48	26.8%	14.0%	142	+0.58	2.55	266	74
Josh Lueke R 2028 · 2.32 FIP	30	SW	2.32	30.0%	4.1%	2.2%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	2.32	107	74
DJ Johnson R 2026 · 2.39 FIP	28	SW	2.39	31.5%	6.3%	2.1%	.386	3.56	26.0%	16.3%	95	+1.17	2.39	334	72
Rafael Martín R 2029 · 2.89 FIP	31	SW	2.89	30.5%	7.1%	2.7%	.285	3.99	20.4%	12.9%	112	+1.10	2.89	227	72
Jason Stoffel R 2025 · 3.51 FIP	27	SW	3.51	27.2%	8.0%	3.1%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	103	72
Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 3.68 FIP	28	SW	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.07	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.61	2.31	403	71
Fernando Salas R 2028 · 2.65 FIP	30	SW	2.65	27.5%	2.6%	2.8%	.294	3.86	20.7%	14.7%	172	+1.21	2.65	288	70
Héctor Neris R 2026 · 2.98 FIP	28	SW	2.98	26.9%	7.2%	2.3%	.292	2.94	33.6%	25.0%	156	-0.04	1.99	682	70
Tyler Duffey R 2026 · 2.52 FIP	28	SW	2.52	34.8%	6.3%	2.9%	.273	3.54	24.4%	15.5%	141	+1.02	2.34	803	70
Cole Sulser R 2026 · 2.39 FIP	28	SW	2.39	31.5%	7.7%	1.8%	.400	2.98	27.1%	17.0%	152	+0.59	2.39	509	70
Jumbo Diaz R 2029 · 3.21 FIP	31	SW	3.21	25.2%	6.0%	2.7%	.286	3.66	21.9%	12.2%	152	+0.45	2.80	284	70
Ryan Pressly R 2026 · 3.77 FIP	28	SW	3.77	24.2%	5.6%	3.7%	.251	2.32	34.0%	27.5%	146	-1.45	1.82	586	69
Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.76 FIP	28	SU	3.76	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.34	2.42	125	69
Pedro Strop R 2028 · 2.58 FIP	30	SW	2.58	30.0%	8.5%	1.7%	.211	2.91	26.9%	18.5%	167	+0.33	2.58	277	69
Pedro Báez R 2026 · 3.82 FIP	28	SW	3.82	28.1%	7.5%	3.9%	.229	3.42	24.6%	15.8%	190	-0.40	2.29	332	69
Addison Reed R 2026 · 3.77 FIP	28	SW	3.77	24.8%	3.9%	4.1%	.261	4.34	18.2%	13.2%	56	+0.57	1.63	266	69

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.