Edwin Uceta
P
Montgomery Biscuits
Age 28
RHP
6'0" / 210 lbs
AA
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 0.5 · 2026
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 ROS PROJECTION4 act + 47 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9889vR 80
ERA3.27
FIP3.36
K%32.2%
BB%6.2%
K-BB%25.9%
ROS IP47
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4394.0
Whiff%
p9035.6%
K%
p9032.1%
xwOBA vs
p560.306
CH+3.9 (39%)
FB+3.0 (42%)
SI (2%)
SL-1.6 (3%)
CT-2.0 (16%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | DSL Dodgers 1 | 11 | 3 | 31 | 118 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 27% | 2.8 | 16.1% | 3.2% | 13.0% | 1.2% | 1.72 | 2.79 | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | DSL Dodgers 1 | 11 | 3 | 31 | 118 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 27% | 2.8 | 23.7% | 2.5% | 21.2% | 0.8% | 1.72 | 2.01 | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | Ogden Raptors | 14 | 14 | 56 | 243 | 62 | 14 | 8 | 100% | 4.0 | 17.3% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 4.6% | 6.59 | 5.08 | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | Ogden Raptors | 14 | 14 | 56 | 243 | 62 | 14 | 8 | 100% | 4.0 | 25.5% | 5.8% | 19.8% | 3.3% | 6.59 | 3.49 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 120 | 502 | 131 | 39 | 16 | 100% | 4.8 | 19.5% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 3.5% | 3.89 | 4.53 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 120 | 502 | 131 | 39 | 16 | 100% | 4.8 | 26.1% | 7.8% | 18.3% | 3.2% | 3.89 | 3.62 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 24 | 123 | 523 | 141 | 47 | 11 | 92% | 4.7 | 21.3% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 2.77 | 4.18 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 24 | 123 | 523 | 141 | 47 | 11 | 92% | 4.7 | 27.0% | 9.0% | 18.0% | 2.1% | 2.77 | 3.12 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 5 | 50 | 224 | 65 | 24 | 7 | 20% | 2.0 | 26.4% | 11.2% | 15.3% | 3.4% | 5.40 | 4.13 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 5 | 50 | 224 | 65 | 24 | 7 | 20% | 2.0 | 29.0% | 10.7% | 18.3% | 3.1% | 5.40 | 3.76 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 5 | 67 | 287 | 83 | 35 | 11 | 13% | 1.8 | 26.0% | 12.7% | 13.3% | 4.4% | 5.10 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 5 | 67 | 287 | 83 | 35 | 11 | 13% | 1.8 | 28.9% | 12.2% | 16.7% | 3.8% | 5.10 | 4.32 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 13 | 2 | 16 | 73 | 8 | 13 | 5 | 15% | 1.2 | 5.0% | 21.8% | -16.8% | 11.1% | 5.74 | 11.56 | -1.3 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 13 | 2 | 16 | 73 | 8 | 13 | 5 | 15% | 1.2 | 11.0% | 17.8% | -6.8% | 6.8% | 5.74 | 8.72 | -0.8 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 76 | 317 | 104 | 24 | 10 | 0% | 1.5 | 31.0% | 7.8% | 23.2% | 3.1% | 3.43 | 3.20 | +1.5 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 76 | 317 | 104 | 24 | 10 | 0% | 1.5 | 32.8% | 7.6% | 25.2% | 3.2% | 3.43 | 3.02 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 70 | 0 | 76 | 321 | 103 | 24 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 32.1% | 7.5% | 24.6% | 3.6% | 3.79 | 3.33 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 70 | 0 | 76 | 321 | 103 | 24 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 32.1% | 7.5% | 24.6% | 3.4% | 3.79 | 3.22 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 4 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | — | — | — | — | 6.23 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | TB | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 64 | 12 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.2% | 6.2% | 25.9% | 3.3% | 3.27 | 3.36 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | TB | 5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.2% | 6.2% | 25.9% | 3.2% | 3.22 | 3.31 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | TB | — | — | 51 | 216 | 71 | 12 | 8 | — | — | 32.7% | 5.7% | 27.0% | 3.5% | 3.52 | 3.08 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | TB | — | — | 5 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 1 | — | — | 32.2% | 6.2% | 25.9% | 3.2% | 3.22 | 2.93 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | TB | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 89 | 18 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.6% | 6.5% | 25.1% | 3.4% | 3.42 | 3.52 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | TB | 60 | 0 | 63 | 265 | 82 | 18 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.9% | 6.8% | 24.1% | 3.6% | 3.60 | 3.73 | +0.6 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | TB | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 33 | 7 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.6% | 6.5% | 25.1% | 3.3% | 3.37 | 3.47 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | TB | 33 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 46 | 10 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.9% | 6.8% | 24.1% | 3.5% | 3.55 | 3.68 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 186 | 1 | 222 | 926 | 285 | 70 | 27 | 1% | 1.2 | 30.8% | 7.5% | 23.3% | 2.9% | 3.63 | 3.07 | +6.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 168 | 1 | 200 | 834 | 257 | 63 | 24 | 1% | 1.2 | 30.8% | 7.5% | 23.3% | 2.9% | 3.63 | 3.07 | +5.4 | ||
| Career | — | 278 | 78 | 620 | 2626 | 616 | 246 | 96 | 28% | 2.2 | 23.5% | 9.3% | 14.1% | 3.7% | 4.05 | 4.32 | +7.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 90 | 25 | 200 | 847 | 199 | 79 | 31 | 28% | 2.2 | 23.5% | 9.3% | 14.1% | 3.7% | 4.05 | 4.32 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Edwin Uceta (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.36 | 32.2% | 6.2% | 3.3% | — | 3.62 | 31.2% | 24.6% | 130 | +0.26 | — | — | — |
| Cody Allen R 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.05 | 32.6% | 7.4% | 3.2% | .300 | 5.08 | 27.0% | 14.6% | 90 | +2.03 | 1.58 | 295 | 71 |
| John Brebbia R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.21 | 30.0% | 6.4% | 3.4% | .317 | 3.04 | 29.3% | 22.2% | 106 | -0.17 | 2.81 | 574 | 71 |
| Josh Lueke R 2028 · 2.50 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.50 | 30.0% | 4.1% | 2.6% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 70 |
| Shawn Kelley R 2029 · 2.34 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.34 | 30.7% | 5.4% | 2.1% | .291 | 4.06 | 29.3% | 24.4% | 133 | +1.72 | 2.34 | 232 | 67 |
| Tyler Duffey R 2026 · 2.45 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.45 | 34.8% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .273 | 3.54 | 24.4% | 15.5% | 141 | +1.09 | 2.26 | 803 | 66 |
| DJ Johnson R 2026 · 2.21 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.21 | 31.5% | 6.3% | 1.8% | .386 | 3.48 | 26.0% | 16.3% | 95 | +1.27 | 2.21 | 334 | 66 |
| Rafael Martín R 2029 · 2.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.85 | 30.5% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .285 | 4.03 | 20.4% | 12.9% | 112 | +1.18 | 2.85 | 227 | 66 |
| AJ Ramos R 2026 · 2.89 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.89 | 31.4% | 9.4% | 2.3% | .247 | 3.43 | 26.8% | 14.0% | 142 | +0.54 | 2.55 | 266 | 66 |
| David Robertson R 2028 · 2.24 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.24 | 34.4% | 4.4% | 2.7% | .267 | 2.65 | 32.6% | 23.9% | 200 | +0.41 | 1.99 | 494 | 65 |
| Adam Ottavino R 2028 · 2.35 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.35 | 32.7% | 6.5% | 2.1% | .242 | 2.94 | 31.7% | 19.3% | 197 | +0.59 | 1.99 | 488 | 65 |
| Cole Sulser R 2026 · 2.29 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.29 | 31.5% | 7.7% | 1.6% | .400 | 2.96 | 27.1% | 17.0% | 152 | +0.67 | 2.29 | 538 | 65 |
| Fernando Salas R 2028 · 2.80 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.80 | 27.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | .294 | 3.94 | 20.7% | 14.7% | 172 | +1.14 | 2.80 | 288 | 64 |
| Nick Anderson R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.96 | 31.9% | 7.3% | 4.8% | .315 | 1.80 | 42.3% | 37.0% | 81 | -2.16 | 0.97 | 411 | 64 |
| Seth Lugo R 2026 · 2.93 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.93 | 25.1% | 5.9% | 2.2% | .263 | 3.00 | 30.9% | 25.3% | 163 | +0.07 | 2.19 | 1,320 | 64 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2025 · 3.70 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.70 | 27.2% | 8.0% | 3.4% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 103 | 64 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2028 · 3.05 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.05 | 27.1% | 6.6% | 2.5% | .292 | 4.66 | 22.6% | 14.0% | 137 | +1.61 | 3.05 | 176 | 64 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 63 |
| Héctor Neris R 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.23 | 26.9% | 7.2% | 2.7% | .292 | 3.08 | 33.6% | 25.0% | 156 | -0.15 | 1.97 | 682 | 63 |
| Addison Reed R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.45 | 24.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% | .261 | 4.66 | 18.2% | 13.2% | 56 | +1.21 | 1.67 | 266 | 63 |
| Craig Yoho R 2024 · 3.24 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.24 | 30.7% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .150 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.54 | 141 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 59 | 31.5% | 6.5% | 1.34 | 3.44 |
| Sean Doolittle ('21) | 5 | 49 | 28.7% | 6.2% | 1.18 | 3.31 |
| Giovanny Gallegos ('24) | 6 | 52 | 29.4% | 6.6% | 1.19 | 3.46 |
| Blake Parker ('21) | 4 | 60 | 26.6% | 7.3% | 1.40 | 3.36 |
| Erik Swanson ('24) | 5 | 51 | 26.2% | 6.5% | 1.57 | 3.70 |
| Adbert Alzolay ('23) | 3 | 70 | 26.1% | 7.0% | 1.32 | 3.84 |
| Seunghwan Oh ('18) | 3 | 69 | 27.7% | 5.9% | 1.00 | 2.78 |