Edwin Uceta — OGILVIE

Edwin Uceta P Montgomery Biscuits

Age 28 RHP 6'0" / 210 lbs AA Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 0.7 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 69 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9890vR 81

ERA3.22

FIP3.29

K%32.0%

BB%6.0%

K-BB%26.0%

ROS IP70

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7070

CTRL5555

CMD7575

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4394.0

Whiff%

p9035.6%

p9032.1%

xwOBA vs

p560.306

CH+3.9 (39%)

FB+3.0 (42%)

SI (2%)

SL-1.6 (3%)

CT-2.0 (16%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2021

Service 2.872 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.0M	-$0.1M
2027	Arb-2	$2M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-3	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.1M		$3M	-$0.1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	18	ROK MLE	DSL Dodgers 1	11	3	31	118	28	3	1	27%	2.8	16.1%	3.2%	13.0%	1.2%	1.72	2.79	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	DSL Dodgers 1	11	3	31	118	28	3	1	27%	2.8	23.7%	2.5%	21.2%	0.8%	1.72	2.01	—
2017	19	ROK MLE	Ogden Raptors	14	14	56	243	62	14	8	100%	4.0	17.3%	7.2%	10.1%	4.6%	6.59	5.08	—
2017	19	ROK RAW	Ogden Raptors	14	14	56	243	62	14	8	100%	4.0	25.5%	5.8%	19.8%	3.3%	6.59	3.49	—
2018	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	120	502	131	39	16	100%	4.8	19.5%	9.1%	10.4%	3.8%	3.89	4.67	—
2018	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	120	502	131	39	16	100%	4.8	26.1%	7.8%	18.3%	3.2%	3.89	3.62	—
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	123	523	141	47	11	92%	4.7	21.3%	10.0%	11.3%	2.7%	2.77	4.07	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	24	123	523	141	47	11	92%	4.7	27.0%	9.0%	18.0%	2.1%	2.77	3.12	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	5	50	224	65	24	7	20%	2.0	26.4%	11.2%	15.3%	3.3%	5.40	4.07	+0.3
2021	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	5	50	224	65	24	7	20%	2.0	29.0%	10.7%	18.3%	3.1%	5.40	3.76	+0.5
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	5	67	287	83	35	11	13%	1.8	26.0%	12.7%	13.3%	4.3%	5.10	4.88	-0.3
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	5	67	287	83	35	11	13%	1.8	28.9%	12.2%	16.7%	3.8%	5.10	4.32	+0.2
2023	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	13	2	16	73	8	13	5	15%	1.2	4.7%	18.7%	-14.0%	10.7%	5.74	10.97	-1.2
2023	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	13	2	16	73	8	13	5	15%	1.2	4.7%	18.7%	-14.0%	10.7%	5.74	10.97	-1.2
2023	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	13	2	16	73	8	13	5	15%	1.2	11.0%	17.8%	-6.8%	6.8%	5.74	8.72	-0.8
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	76	317	104	24	10	0%	1.5	30.3%	7.1%	23.2%	3.3%	3.43	3.23	+1.2
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	76	317	104	24	10	0%	1.5	30.3%	7.1%	23.2%	3.3%	3.43	3.23	+1.2
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	76	317	104	24	10	0%	1.5	32.8%	7.6%	25.2%	3.2%	3.43	3.02	+1.4
2025	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	70	0	76	321	103	24	11	0%	1.1	32.1%	7.5%	24.6%	3.3%	3.79	3.16	+1.3
2025	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	70	0	76	321	103	24	11	0%	1.1	32.1%	7.5%	24.6%	3.3%	3.79	3.16	+1.3
2025	27	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	70	0	76	321	103	24	11	0%	1.1	32.1%	7.5%	24.6%	3.4%	3.79	3.22	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			125	1	158	656	201	52	18	1%	1.3	30.6%	7.9%	22.7%	2.7%	3.70	3.02	+2.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	4	0	4	18	7	0	1	0%	1.1	—	—	—	—	6.23	—	—
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	4	0	4	18	7	0	1	0%	1.1	—	—	—	—	6.23	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AA RAW	TB	3	0	3	10	4	0	1	0%	1.0	40.0%	0.0%	40.0%	10.0%	3.00	5.21	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	TB	1	0	1	8	3	0	0	0%	1.3	37.5%	0.0%	37.5%	0.0%	13.50	-0.07	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	TB	64	0	67	282	89	18	9	0%	1.0	31.4%	6.2%	25.2%	3.3%	3.36	3.45	+0.9
2028	30	MLB MLE	TB	60	0	63	265	82	17	9	0%	1.0	30.7%	6.6%	24.2%	3.5%	3.54	3.66	+0.7
2027	29	MLB CTX	TB	24	0	25	106	33	7	4	0%	1.0	31.4%	6.2%	25.2%	3.4%	3.41	3.50	+0.3
2028	30	MLB CTX	TB	33	0	35	148	45	10	5	0%	1.1	30.7%	6.6%	24.2%	3.6%	3.60	3.72	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		181	1	217	906	279	68	27	1%	1.2	30.7%	7.5%	23.2%	3.0%	3.65	3.08	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		167	1	200	834	257	63	25	1%	1.2	30.7%	7.5%	23.2%	3.0%	3.65	3.08	+3.5
Career	—	MLE		278	78	620	2626	614	241	95	28%	2.2	23.4%	9.2%	14.2%	3.6%	4.05	4.28	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		90	25	200	847	198	78	31	28%	2.2	23.4%	9.2%	14.2%	3.6%	4.05	4.28	+3.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Edwin Uceta (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.29	32.0%	6.0%	3.2%	—	3.55	31.1%	24.7%	130	+0.26	—	—	—
Cody Allen R 2017 · 3.04 FIP	28	SU	3.04	32.6%	7.4%	3.2%	.300	5.02	27.0%	14.6%	90	+1.98	1.58	295	74
John Brebbia R 2018 · 3.20 FIP	28	SU	3.20	30.0%	6.4%	3.3%	.317	3.09	29.3%	22.2%	106	-0.11	2.89	575	73
Josh Lueke R 2015 · 2.29 FIP	30	SU	2.29	30.0%	4.1%	2.2%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	70
Shawn Kelley R 2015 · 2.23 FIP	31	SU	2.23	30.7%	5.4%	1.9%	.291	4.09	29.3%	24.4%	133	+1.86	2.23	232	67
Tyler Duffey R 2019 · 2.45 FIP	28	SU	2.45	34.8%	6.3%	2.7%	.273	3.55	24.4%	15.5%	141	+1.10	2.27	803	67
DJ Johnson R 2018 · 2.34 FIP	28	SU	2.34	31.5%	6.3%	2.0%	.386	3.61	26.0%	16.3%	95	+1.27	2.34	334	67
Rafael Martín R 2015 · 2.94 FIP	31	SU	2.94	30.5%	7.1%	2.8%	.285	3.99	20.4%	12.9%	112	+1.05	2.94	227	66
Seth Lugo R 2018 · 2.93 FIP	28	SU	2.93	25.1%	5.9%	2.2%	.263	2.99	30.9%	25.3%	163	+0.06	2.19	1,379	66
David Robertson R 2015 · 2.26 FIP	30	SU	2.26	34.4%	4.4%	2.8%	.267	2.67	32.6%	23.9%	200	+0.41	2.00	494	66
Addison Reed R 2017 · 3.52 FIP	28	SU	3.52	24.8%	3.9%	3.7%	.261	4.68	18.2%	13.2%	56	+1.16	1.67	266	66
AJ Ramos R 2015 · 2.89 FIP	28	SU	2.89	31.4%	9.4%	2.3%	.247	3.43	26.8%	14.0%	142	+0.54	2.55	266	65
Adam Ottavino R 2016 · 2.53 FIP	30	SU	2.53	32.7%	6.5%	2.5%	.242	3.05	31.7%	19.3%	197	+0.52	2.10	488	65
Héctor Neris R 2017 · 3.18 FIP	28	SU	3.18	26.9%	7.2%	2.6%	.292	3.02	33.6%	25.0%	156	-0.16	2.03	682	65
Cole Sulser R 2018 · 2.39 FIP	28	SU	2.39	31.5%	7.7%	1.8%	.400	2.98	27.1%	17.0%	152	+0.59	2.39	547	65
Fernando Salas R 2015 · 2.71 FIP	30	SU	2.71	27.5%	2.6%	2.9%	.294	3.95	20.7%	14.7%	172	+1.24	2.71	288	65
Nick Anderson R 2018 · 3.60 FIP	28	SU	3.60	31.9%	7.3%	4.1%	.315	1.76	42.3%	37.0%	81	-1.84	0.94	411	65
Michael Tonkin R 2017 · 3.32 FIP	27	SU	3.32	29.2%	9.6%	2.7%	.309	6.30	21.8%	8.3%	22	+2.98	2.31	480	64
Ryan Pressly R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	28	SU	3.93	24.2%	5.6%	4.0%	.251	2.39	34.0%	27.5%	146	-1.54	1.88	586	64
Austin Adams R 2019 · 2.12 FIP	28	SU	2.12	41.7%	10.4%	2.2%	.296	2.39	31.5%	17.8%	53	+0.27	1.79	392	64
Pedro Báez R 2016 · 3.63 FIP	28	SU	3.63	28.1%	7.5%	3.6%	.229	3.39	24.6%	15.8%	190	-0.24	2.29	332	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	65	31.4%	6.3%	1.30	3.37
Sean Doolittle ('21)	1.2	49	28.7%	6.2%	1.18	3.31
Giovanny Gallegos ('24)	1.5	52	29.4%	6.6%	1.19	3.46
Blake Parker ('21)	1.2	60	26.6%	7.3%	1.40	3.36
Seunghwan Oh ('18)	1.0	69	27.7%	5.9%	1.00	2.78
Richard Rodríguez ('21)	1.1	56	25.0%	6.3%	1.21	3.00
Adbert Alzolay ('23)	1.1	70	26.1%	7.0%	1.32	3.84