Nick Anderson — OGILVIE

Nick Anderson P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 36 RHP 6'4" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 57 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.39

FIP4.49

K%20.5%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%12.8%

ROS IP57

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6095.2

Whiff%

p1019.0%

p1016.1%

xwOBA vs

p380.326

SI (1%)

CU (29%)

CH (21%)

FB-1.0 (49%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	25	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	9	0	12	45	12	0	1	0%	1.3	26.7%	0.0%	26.7%	2.2%	0.75	2.07	—
2015	25	A RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	9	0	12	45	12	0	1	0%	1.3	26.7%	0.0%	26.7%	2.2%	0.75	2.18	—
2016	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	58	226	75	15	2	0%	1.4	25.2%	7.7%	17.5%	1.3%	2.65	2.63	—
2016	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	58	226	75	15	2	0%	1.4	33.2%	6.6%	26.5%	0.9%	2.65	1.73	—
2017	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	54	200	57	10	0	0%	1.2	22.7%	5.6%	17.1%	0.0%	1.00	1.89	—
2017	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	54	200	57	10	0	0%	1.2	28.5%	5.0%	23.5%	0.0%	1.00	1.54	—
2018	28	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	39	4	60	243	88	17	8	10%	1.5	31.9%	7.3%	24.5%	4.1%	3.30	3.60	—
2018	28	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	39	4	60	243	88	17	8	10%	1.5	36.2%	7.0%	29.2%	3.3%	3.30	2.75	—
2019	29	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	68	0	65	264	110	14	8	0%	1.0	41.7%	5.3%	36.4%	3.1%	3.32	1.96	+2.0
2019	29	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	68	0	65	264	110	14	8	0%	1.0	41.7%	5.3%	36.4%	3.0%	3.32	1.96	+2.0
2020	30	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	19	0	16	58	26	3	1	0%	0.9	44.8%	5.2%	39.7%	1.8%	0.55	0.94	+0.7
2020	30	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	19	0	16	58	26	3	1	0%	0.9	44.8%	5.2%	39.7%	1.7%	0.55	1.26	+0.6
2021	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	1	19	75	17	3	4	5%	1.0	22.7%	4.0%	18.7%	5.3%	4.34	4.62	-0.0
2021	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	1	19	75	17	3	4	5%	1.0	22.7%	4.0%	18.7%	5.3%	4.34	4.55	+0.0
2022	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	0	17	77	14	4	5	0%	0.9	15.3%	4.6%	10.7%	7.7%	5.19	6.62	—
2022	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	0	17	77	14	4	5	0%	0.9	18.2%	5.2%	13.0%	6.5%	5.19	5.93	—
2023	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	38	155	37	11	3	0%	1.0	25.5%	6.4%	19.1%	2.1%	3.58	2.92	+0.7
2023	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	38	155	37	11	3	0%	1.0	25.5%	6.4%	19.1%	2.1%	3.58	2.92	+0.7
2023	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	38	155	37	11	3	0%	1.0	23.9%	7.1%	16.8%	1.9%	3.58	3.05	+0.7
2024	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	42	178	36	17	7	0%	1.0	19.0%	9.2%	9.8%	4.2%	3.64	4.99	-0.2
2024	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	42	178	36	17	7	0%	1.0	19.0%	9.2%	9.8%	4.2%	3.64	4.99	-0.2
2024	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	42	178	36	17	7	0%	1.0	20.2%	9.6%	10.7%	3.9%	3.64	4.77	-0.1
2025	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	54	238	58	17	8	0%	1.1	20.9%	6.5%	14.4%	3.0%	5.50	3.82	+0.5
2025	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	54	238	58	17	8	0%	1.1	20.9%	6.5%	14.4%	3.0%	5.50	3.82	+0.5
2025	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	54	238	58	17	8	0%	1.1	24.4%	7.1%	17.2%	3.4%	5.50	3.82	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			177	0	173	701	212	44	23	0%	1.0	30.2%	6.3%	24.0%	3.3%	3.43	3.14	+2.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	36	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	15	0	17	65	16	5	2	0%	1.1	20.4%	6.9%	13.5%	3.4%	2.16	4.11	—
YTD	36	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	15	0	17	65	16	5	2	0%	1.1	20.4%	6.9%	13.5%	3.4%	2.16	4.11	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	36	AAA RAW	OAK	15	0	17	65	16	5	2	0%	1.1	24.6%	7.7%	16.9%	3.1%	2.16	3.68	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	37	MLB MLE	OAK	47	0	50	210	41	18	8	0%	1.1	19.4%	8.4%	11.1%	3.6%	4.69	4.90	-0.2
2028	38	MLB MLE	OAK	41	0	43	181	33	16	7	0%	1.0	18.3%	9.1%	9.2%	4.1%	5.07	5.33	-0.4
2027	37	MLB CTX	OAK	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.4%	8.4%	11.1%	3.6%	4.69	4.90	—
2028	38	MLB CTX	OAK	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.3%	9.1%	9.2%	4.1%	5.07	5.33	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		177	0	173	703	212	44	23	0%	1.0	30.2%	6.3%	23.9%	3.3%	3.44	3.15	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		205	0	200	811	244	51	27	0%	1.0	30.2%	6.3%	23.9%	3.3%	3.44	3.15	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		404	5	451	1824	493	116	53	1%	1.1	27.0%	6.4%	20.7%	2.9%	3.17	3.23	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		179	2	200	808	218	51	24	1%	1.1	27.0%	6.4%	20.7%	2.9%	3.17	3.23	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Anderson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.49	20.5%	7.7%	3.2%	—	5.10	18.9%	10.2%	93	+0.61	—	—	—
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	74
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	73
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	71
John Axford R 2018 · 3.64 FIP	35	SU	3.64	23.2%	9.0%	2.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	197	71
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	71
Blake Parker R 2021 · 3.86 FIP	36	SU	3.86	20.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.295	5.74	26.0%	14.0%	27	+1.88	2.52	339	71
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	186	70
Mark Lowe R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	34	SU	5.03	16.4%	10.0%	3.7%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	153	70
Jim Johnson R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	35	SU	4.48	16.8%	7.8%	3.3%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	251	69
Dustin McGowan R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	35	SU	4.58	19.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	208	69
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	68
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	68
Santiago Casilla R 2016 · 3.69 FIP	36	SU	3.69	27.0%	7.1%	3.6%	.278	4.13	19.8%	8.7%	103	+0.44	3.50	219	67
Joaquín Benoit R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	38	SU	3.58	24.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.179	4.11	23.5%	12.9%	98	+0.53	3.58	164	66
Carlos Torres R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	36	SU	4.28	17.8%	9.0%	2.8%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	326	66
Matt Albers R 2019 · 4.13 FIP	36	SU	4.13	22.1%	10.1%	2.9%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	244	66
Ramon E Ramirez R 2017 · 3.49 FIP	35	SU	3.49	14.0%	5.8%	1.5%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	140	66
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	65
Ronald Belisario R 2019 · 4.16 FIP	36	SU	4.16	12.7%	3.9%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.10	126	65
Jason Motte R 2017 · 5.16 FIP	35	SU	5.16	16.3%	11.4%	3.6%	.193	—	—	—	—	—	3.18	113	64

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	50	19.5%	8.3%	1.40	4.68
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47