Nick Anderson

P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 37 RHP 6'4" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	34	MIX2 levels	42	0	42	3.64	4.77	20.2%	9.6%	-0.1	K 19.0% · BB 9.2% · FIP 4.99
2025	35	MIX2 levels	50	0	54	5.50	3.82	24.4%	7.1%	0.5	K 21.5% · BB 6.5% · FIP 3.77
2026	36	AAAOAK	15	0	17	2.16	3.64	24.6%	7.7%	—	K 21.2% · BB 6.9% · FIP 4.05
2027PROJ	37	MLBOAK	5	0	5	4.46	4.46	20.8%	7.8%	0.0
2028PROJMLE	38	MLBOAK	—	—	0	4.72	4.89	19.6%	8.5%	—
2029PROJMLE	39	MLBOAK	—	—	0	5.08	5.32	18.5%	9.2%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo60

xwOBA vs38

K%10

CompsKeiichi Yabu (age 36) · Juan Sandoval (age 36) · Rudy Gonzalez (age 36)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.46

FIP4.46

K%20.8%

BB%7.8%

K-BB%13.0%

Proj IP53

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6095.2

Whiff%

p1019.0%

p1016.1%

xwOBA vs

p380.326

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	25	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	9	0	12	45	12	0	1	0%	1.3	26.7%	0.0%	26.7%	2.2%	0.75	2.07	—
2015	25	A RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	9	0	12	45	12	0	1	0%	1.3	26.7%	0.0%	26.7%	2.2%	0.75	2.18	—
2016	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	58	226	75	15	2	0%	1.4	25.2%	7.7%	17.5%	1.3%	2.65	2.63	—
2016	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	58	226	75	15	2	0%	1.4	33.2%	6.6%	26.5%	0.9%	2.65	1.73	—
2017	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	54	200	57	10	0	0%	1.2	22.7%	5.6%	17.1%	0.0%	1.00	1.89	—
2017	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	54	200	57	10	0	0%	1.2	28.5%	5.0%	23.5%	0.0%	1.00	1.54	—
2018	28	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	39	4	60	243	88	17	8	10%	1.5	31.9%	7.3%	24.5%	4.1%	3.30	3.60	—
2018	28	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	39	4	60	243	88	17	8	10%	1.5	36.2%	7.0%	29.2%	3.3%	3.30	2.75	—
2019	29	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	68	0	65	264	110	14	8	0%	1.0	41.7%	5.3%	36.4%	3.1%	3.32	1.96	+2.0
2019	29	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	68	0	65	264	110	14	8	0%	1.0	41.7%	5.3%	36.4%	3.0%	3.32	1.96	+2.0
2020	30	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	19	0	16	58	26	3	1	0%	0.9	44.8%	5.2%	39.7%	1.8%	0.55	0.94	+0.7
2020	30	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	19	0	16	58	26	3	1	0%	0.9	44.8%	5.2%	39.7%	1.7%	0.55	1.26	+0.6
2021	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	1	19	75	17	3	4	5%	1.0	22.7%	4.0%	18.7%	5.3%	4.34	4.62	-0.0
2021	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	1	19	75	17	3	4	5%	1.0	22.7%	4.0%	18.7%	5.3%	4.34	4.55	+0.0
2022	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	0	17	77	14	4	5	0%	0.9	15.3%	4.6%	10.7%	7.7%	5.19	6.62	—
2022	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	0	17	77	14	4	5	0%	0.9	18.2%	5.2%	13.0%	6.5%	5.19	5.93	—
2023	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	38	155	37	11	3	0%	1.0	25.5%	6.4%	19.1%	2.1%	3.58	2.92	+0.7
2023	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	38	155	37	11	3	0%	1.0	23.9%	7.1%	16.8%	1.9%	3.58	3.05	+0.7
2024	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	42	178	36	17	7	0%	1.0	19.0%	9.2%	9.8%	4.2%	3.64	4.99	-0.2
2024	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	42	178	36	17	7	0%	1.0	19.0%	9.2%	9.8%	4.2%	3.64	4.99	-0.2
2024	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	42	178	36	17	7	0%	1.0	20.2%	9.6%	10.7%	3.9%	3.64	4.77	-0.1
2025	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	54	238	58	17	8	0%	1.1	21.5%	6.5%	15.0%	3.0%	5.50	3.77	+0.5
2025	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	54	238	58	17	8	0%	1.1	21.5%	6.5%	15.0%	3.0%	5.50	3.77	+0.5
2025	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	54	238	58	17	8	0%	1.1	24.4%	7.1%	17.2%	3.4%	5.50	3.82	+0.5
2026	36	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	15	0	17	65	16	5	2	0%	1.1	21.2%	6.9%	14.2%	3.4%	2.16	4.05	—
2026	36	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	15	0	17	65	16	5	2	0%	1.1	21.2%	6.9%	14.2%	3.4%	2.16	4.05	—
2026	36	AAA RAW	Las Vegas Aviators	15	0	17	65	16	5	2	0%	1.1	24.6%	7.7%	16.9%	3.1%	2.16	3.64	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			177	0	173	701	212	44	23	0%	1.0	30.2%	6.3%	24.0%	3.3%	3.43	3.14	+2.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	37	MLB	OAK	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	20.8%	7.8%	13.0%	3.2%	4.46	4.46	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	38	MLB MLE	OAK	33	0	34	145	28	12	5	0%	1.0	19.6%	8.5%	11.1%	3.6%	4.72	4.89	-0.1
2029	39	MLB MLE	OAK	23	0	24	103	19	9	4	0%	1.1	18.5%	9.2%	9.3%	4.1%	5.08	5.32	-0.2
2028	38	MLB CTX	OAK	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.6%	8.5%	11.1%	3.6%	4.72	4.89	—
2029	39	MLB CTX	OAK	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.5%	9.2%	9.3%	4.1%	5.08	5.32	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		177	0	173	701	212	44	23	0%	1.0	30.2%	6.3%	24.0%	3.3%	3.43	3.14	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		205	0	200	810	245	51	27	0%	1.0	30.2%	6.3%	24.0%	3.3%	3.43	3.14	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		404	5	451	1824	495	116	53	1%	1.1	27.1%	6.4%	20.8%	2.9%	3.17	3.22	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		179	2	200	808	219	51	24	1%	1.1	27.1%	6.4%	20.8%	2.9%	3.17	3.22	+2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 17 IPFIP 3.68 → 4.05 (+0.36)K% 24.6% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.62%	—	×0.860	21.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×0.900	6.92%
HR / BF /BF	3.08%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.38%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.68 → 4.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAATacoma Rainiers · 39 IPFIP 3.43 → 3.51 (+0.08)K% 27.1% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.12%	—	×0.860	23.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.47%	—	×0.900	7.63%
HR / BF /BF	2.82%	÷1.204	×1.100	2.58%

Result: FIP 3.43 → 3.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAANorfolk Tides · 6 IPFIP 4.45 → 4.86 (+0.41)K% 28.0% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.00%	—	×0.860	24.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.00%	—	×0.900	10.80%
HR / BF /BF	4.00%	÷0.996	×1.100	4.42%

Result: FIP 4.45 → 4.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAADurham Bulls · 16 IPFIP 6.16 → 6.62 (+0.46)K% 17.4% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.39%	—	×0.880	15.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.35%	—	×1.050	4.57%
HR / BF /BF	7.25%	÷1.034	×1.100	7.71%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 6.16 → 6.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAADurham Bulls · 11 IPFIP 3.58 → 3.97 (+0.39)K% 27.3% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.880	24.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.27%	—	×1.050	2.39%
HR / BF /BF	4.55%	÷1.059	×1.100	4.72%

Result: FIP 3.58 → 3.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAARochester Red Wings · 60 IPFIP 2.74 → 3.60 (+0.87)K% 36.2% → 31.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.21%	—	×0.880	31.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.00%	—	×1.050	7.35%
HR / BF /BF	3.29%	÷0.879	×1.100	4.12%

Result: FIP 2.74 → 3.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 34 IPFIP 1.31 → 1.86 (+0.55)K% 29.6% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.60%	—	×0.810	23.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.60%	—	×1.100	6.16%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.975	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 1.31 → 1.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Fort Myers Miracle · 20 IPFIP 1.35 → 1.95 (+0.59)K% 26.7% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.67%	—	×0.770	20.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.00%	—	×1.150	4.60%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.942	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 1.35 → 1.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Anderson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.46	20.8%	7.8%	3.2%	—	5.07	19.1%	10.4%	59	+0.61	—	—	—
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	73
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	72
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	68
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	65
Scott Atchison R 2013 · 3.80 FIP	37	SU	3.80	14.4%	6.2%	2.1%	.273	3.60	16.7%	12.9%	92	-0.20	2.52	340	64
Pete Walker R 2006 · 4.45 FIP	37	SU	4.45	19.6%	8.0%	3.6%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	327	63
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	62
Matt Bush R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	37	SU	3.79	26.2%	8.7%	3.3%	.225	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	249	62
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	61
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	61
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	60
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	57
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	55
Tony Pena Jr. R 2017 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	10.9%	4.3%	1.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	128	53
Heriberto Ruelas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	35	SU	3.42	17.2%	6.7%	1.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	117	37
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	36
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	34
Brian Shouse L 2006 · 4.19 FIP	37	SU	4.19	13.2%	7.5%	2.3%	.269	3.37	15.3%	11.0%	127	-0.82	2.32	339	33
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	31

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	47	26.0%	7.5%	1.31	3.92
Matt Bush ('23)	1.1	53	25.2%	8.0%	1.41	3.75
Blake Parker ('21)	1.7	58	26.7%	7.9%	1.30	3.47
Richard Rodríguez ('21)	1.1	57	24.5%	6.4%	1.34	3.28
Mike Schooler ('88-'93, 5 WAR*)	1.5	49	26.9%*	8.0%*	0.96*	3.68*
Joe Hoerner ('63-'77, 8 WAR*)	2.8	51	23.2%*	7.9%*	1.21*	3.52*
Buddy Schultz ('75-'79, 2 WAR*)	1.2	60	27.4%*	8.5%*	1.21*	4.14*