Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | DSL Mets 1 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 52 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 3.9 | 10.5% | 14.4% | -4.0% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 4.04 | — |
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | DSL Mets 1 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 52 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 3.9 | 15.4% | 11.5% | 3.8% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 3.27 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | GCL Mets | 6 | 4 | 22 | 87 | 19 | 7 | 0 | 67% | 3.7 | 14.9% | 10.1% | 4.8% | 0.0% | 3.27 | 3.12 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | GCL Mets | 6 | 4 | 22 | 87 | 19 | 7 | 0 | 67% | 3.7 | 21.8% | 8.0% | 13.8% | 0.0% | 3.27 | 2.33 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | Kingsport Mets | 10 | 9 | 42 | 186 | 46 | 18 | 8 | 90% | 4.2 | 16.8% | 12.1% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 4.46 | 6.52 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | Kingsport Mets | 10 | 9 | 42 | 186 | 46 | 18 | 8 | 90% | 4.2 | 24.7% | 9.7% | 15.1% | 4.3% | 4.46 | 4.66 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 11 | 11 | 52 | 235 | 49 | 26 | 4 | 100% | 4.8 | 15.4% | 13.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.78 | 4.80 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 11 | 11 | 52 | 235 | 49 | 26 | 4 | 100% | 4.8 | 20.9% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 1.7% | 3.78 | 3.71 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 31 | 10 | 71 | 308 | 69 | 41 | 0 | 32% | 2.3 | 17.2% | 15.3% | 1.9% | 0.0% | 4.84 | 3.58 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 31 | 10 | 71 | 308 | 69 | 41 | 0 | 32% | 2.3 | 22.4% | 13.3% | 9.1% | 0.0% | 4.84 | 2.89 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 0 | 38 | 169 | 40 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 19.6% | 13.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.54 | 6.06 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 0 | 38 | 169 | 40 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.7% | 12.4% | 11.2% | 3.6% | 4.54 | 4.72 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 59 | 249 | 82 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.3% | 10.3% | 16.0% | 2.2% | 2.61 | 3.38 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 59 | 249 | 82 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 32.9% | 10.0% | 22.9% | 1.6% | 2.61 | 2.47 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 46 | 0 | 52 | 218 | 72 | 27 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.2% | 13.5% | 13.7% | 1.7% | 2.42 | 3.45 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 46 | 0 | 52 | 218 | 72 | 27 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 33.0% | 12.4% | 20.6% | 1.4% | 2.42 | 2.64 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 11 | 1 | 16 | 61 | 14 | 8 | 2 | 9% | 1.4 | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SD | 33 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 36 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 11.3% | 13.3% | 2.7% | 4.32 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 24.6% | 11.3% | 13.3% | 2.7% | 4.32 | 4.32 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | SD | — | — | 51 | 209 | 50 | 25 | 6 | — | — | 24.1% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 2.9% | 3.87 | 2.99 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | SD | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 24.6% | 11.3% | 13.3% | 2.7% | 4.32 | 3.94 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SD | 32 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 35 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 2.8% | 4.37 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SD | 31 | 0 | 32 | 137 | 33 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 11.3% | 12.7% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SD | 29 | 0 | 30 | 129 | 30 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 11.5% | 12.2% | 3.2% | 4.60 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SD | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 2.8% | 4.37 | 4.41 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SD | 17 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 18 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 11.3% | 12.7% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SD | 20 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 11.5% | 12.2% | 3.2% | 4.60 | 4.70 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 49 | 0 | 51 | 216 | 52 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.0% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.19 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 98 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.19 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 195 | 38 | 363 | 1565 | 311 | 203 | 37 | 19% | 1.9 | 19.9% | 12.9% | 6.9% | 2.4% | 3.69 | 4.36 | +4.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 107 | 21 | 200 | 862 | 171 | 112 | 20 | 19% | 1.9 | 19.9% | 12.9% | 6.9% | 2.4% | 3.69 | 4.36 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Daison Acosta (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.32 | 24.6% | 11.3% | 2.7% | — | 4.54 | 24.0% | 12.7% | 97 | +0.22 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Garton R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.71 | 25.2% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .252 | 4.13 | 23.5% | 10.8% | 108 | +0.42 | 3.15 | 307 | 81 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.94 | 26.4% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .274 | 4.93 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 69 | +0.99 | 3.68 | 181 | 81 |
| Simon Castro R 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.16 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 2.2% | .320 | 3.55 | 26.0% | 17.6% | 128 | +0.39 | 2.85 | 185 | 80 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 3.2% | .230 | 3.59 | 23.5% | 7.2% | 40 | -0.49 | 2.74 | 188 | 80 |
| Grant Sides R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.89 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.1% | .247 | 3.24 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.65 | 3.24 | 159 | 80 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.86 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.1% | .295 | 3.60 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.26 | 3.19 | 269 | 80 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.69 | 2.59 | 309 | 80 |
| Cole Sulser R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.43 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 1.7% | .321 | 2.78 | 28.2% | 18.4% | 140 | -0.65 | 2.29 | 538 | 80 |
| Evan Gates R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.87 | 22.5% | 11.8% | 2.1% | .312 | 4.34 | 18.5% | 10.4% | 35 | +0.47 | 3.74 | 277 | 79 |
| Peyton Gray R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.31 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 138 | 79 |
| Holt Jones R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.13 | 24.2% | 11.4% | 3.0% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 217 | 79 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 24.9% | 14.5% | 2.7% | .360 | 5.09 | 15.3% | 3.1% | 58 | +0.79 | 3.42 | 173 | 79 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 78 |
| Jake Stinnett R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.07 | 21.1% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 356 | 78 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.99 | 28.2% | 9.7% | 3.7% | .277 | 4.83 | 16.8% | 2.7% | 45 | +0.84 | 3.74 | 163 | 78 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2027 · 3.36 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.36 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.03 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.67 | 3.27 | 150 | 78 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.99 | 27.3% | 10.0% | 3.5% | .280 | 4.01 | 28.5% | 17.2% | 107 | +0.02 | 3.07 | 363 | 78 |
| Caleb Bolden R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.55 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 222 | 78 |
| Pedro Garcia R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.30 | 22.9% | 9.1% | 1.8% | .276 | 6.16 | 27.5% | 9.3% | 50 | +2.86 | 2.80 | 155 | 78 |
| Jackson Hicks R 2024 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.94 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 116 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 33 | 24.2% | 11.3% | 1.13 | 4.43 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |