Cole Winn
P
Texas Rangers
Age 26
RHP
6'2" / 190 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION34 act + 118 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112103vR 94
ERA3.90
FIP4.09
K%21.6%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%12.1%
ROS IP118
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 152 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6095.2
Whiff%
p6327.3%
K%
p5222.6%
xwOBA vs
p350.329
CT+1.4 (31%)
SL+1.2 (23%)
SI (2%)
FB-2.7 (33%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 19 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 18 | 18 | 69 | 298 | 65 | 39 | 5 | 100% | 3.8 | 16.1% | 15.4% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 4.46 | 4.57 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 18 | 18 | 69 | 298 | 65 | 39 | 5 | 100% | 3.8 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 8.7% | 1.7% | 4.46 | 3.86 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 86 | 332 | 107 | 31 | 7 | 100% | 4.1 | 26.5% | 9.7% | 16.9% | 2.0% | 2.41 | 3.17 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 86 | 332 | 107 | 31 | 7 | 100% | 4.1 | 32.2% | 9.3% | 22.9% | 2.1% | 2.41 | 2.75 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 28 | 28 | 122 | 573 | 123 | 87 | 13 | 100% | 4.3 | 18.9% | 15.9% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 6.51 | 5.02 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 28 | 28 | 122 | 573 | 123 | 87 | 13 | 100% | 4.3 | 21.5% | 15.2% | 6.3% | 2.3% | 6.51 | 4.61 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 29 | 13 | 101 | 493 | 97 | 79 | 17 | 45% | 3.5 | 17.3% | 16.8% | 0.5% | 3.5% | 7.22 | 5.72 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 29 | 13 | 101 | 493 | 97 | 79 | 17 | 45% | 3.5 | 19.7% | 16.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 7.22 | 5.71 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 0 | 33 | 143 | 34 | 8 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.1% | 5.7% | 16.4% | 3.2% | 5.73 | 3.70 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 0 | 33 | 143 | 34 | 8 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.8% | 5.6% | 18.2% | 2.8% | 5.73 | 3.34 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 72 | 280 | 60 | 28 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 20.4% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 1.5% | 1.12 | 3.51 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 72 | 280 | 60 | 28 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 21.4% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 1.4% | 1.12 | 3.32 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 37 | 0 | 34 | 149 | 34 | 10 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 22.6% | 6.2% | 16.4% | 3.4% | 5.82 | 3.85 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | TEX | 113 | 0 | 118 | 500 | 108 | 47 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 2.9% | 3.90 | 4.09 | +1.8 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | TEX | 112 | 0 | 118 | 498 | 108 | 47 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 2.9% | 3.90 | 4.09 | +1.8 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 152 | 649 | 142 | 57 | 20 | — | — | 21.9% | 8.8% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.03 | +2.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 152 | 641 | 142 | 57 | 20 | — | — | 22.1% | 9.0% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 4.35 | 4.05 | +2.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 146 | 0 | 153 | 648 | 139 | 60 | 19 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 12.1% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.49 | +1.6 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 146 | 0 | 153 | 648 | 138 | 61 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 12.0% | 3.1% | 4.49 | 4.56 | +1.5 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 139 | 0 | 146 | 616 | 132 | 58 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 12.1% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.49 | +1.6 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 139 | 0 | 146 | 616 | 132 | 58 | 19 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 12.0% | 3.1% | 4.49 | 4.56 | +1.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 472 | 0 | 502 | 2115 | 454 | 190 | 62 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 9.0% | 12.4% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.04 | +8.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 188 | 0 | 200 | 843 | 181 | 76 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 9.0% | 12.4% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.04 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 206 | 80 | 517 | 2268 | 452 | 298 | 58 | 39% | 2.5 | 19.9% | 13.2% | 6.8% | 2.6% | 4.84 | 4.50 | +5.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 80 | 31 | 200 | 878 | 175 | 116 | 23 | 39% | 2.5 | 19.9% | 13.2% | 6.8% | 2.6% | 4.84 | 4.50 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cole Winn (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.62 | 20.9% | 10.8% | 2.8% | — | 4.52 | 21.4% | 12.1% | 307 | -0.10 | — | — | — |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.75 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 1.9% | .292 | 4.81 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +1.06 | 3.75 | 299 | 76 |
| Derek Gordon R 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.72 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 146 | 75 |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 75 |
| R.J. Alaniz R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.78 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .318 | 3.31 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 96 | -0.47 | 2.46 | 362 | 74 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2028 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 74 |
| Jack Dallas R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 18.9% | 6.8% | 2.1% | .292 | 5.11 | 20.4% | 15.3% | 41 | +1.57 | 3.08 | 210 | 73 |
| Madison Younginer IV R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.24 | 23.0% | 9.8% | 3.4% | .370 | 4.72 | 14.0% | -5.3% | 27 | +0.48 | 3.04 | 219 | 73 |
| Spencer Stockton R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.19 | 20.2% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .276 | 5.42 | 19.0% | 5.8% | 63 | +1.23 | 1.93 | 233 | 72 |
| Layne Somsen R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.72 | 19.5% | 12.5% | 1.3% | .265 | 4.04 | 19.9% | 6.7% | 92 | +0.32 | 3.67 | 154 | 72 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2028 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .311 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | -0.14 | 3.21 | 157 | 72 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 167 | 72 |
| Grant Black R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 72 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 72 |
| Tyler Kinley R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.74 | 25.0% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .295 | 3.79 | 25.0% | 11.7% | 140 | +0.05 | 1.58 | 578 | 71 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2027 · 4.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.15 | 16.4% | 9.4% | 2.3% | .297 | 4.10 | 22.9% | 12.0% | 293 | -0.05 | 3.33 | 556 | 71 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.02 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.56 | 2.69 | 315 | 71 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 71 |
| John Brebbia R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.03 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .346 | 3.14 | 27.6% | 21.4% | 215 | -0.89 | 2.81 | 574 | 71 |
| Miguel Sánchez R 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.68 | 21.3% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .305 | 4.77 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 83 | +1.09 | 2.54 | 309 | 71 |
| Juan Minaya R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.67 | 24.4% | 9.6% | 2.6% | .291 | 3.51 | 25.1% | 14.5% | 132 | -0.16 | 3.17 | 446 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 153 | 21.2% | 9.8% | 1.14 | 4.44 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Jaime García ('18) | 4 | 135 | 19.6% | 8.5% | 1.05 | 4.23 |
| Edinson Volquez ('17) | 3 | 161 | 17.9% | 9.6% | 0.88 | 4.39 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Andrew Cashner ('19) | 5 | 157 | 16.7% | 9.2% | 1.11 | 4.54 |