Cole Winn — OGILVIE

Cole Winn P Texas Rangers

+0.3 WAR

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs MLB peak 0.4 · 2026

ERA4.04

FIP4.37

xFIP4.15

SIERA3.59

K%21.1%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%11.0%

IP63

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.4peak

2026

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†5555

CT+1.4 (28%)

SL+1.2 (20%)

SI (4%)

FB-2.7 (37%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2019	19	A	Hickory Crawdads	18	18	69	298	65	39	5	16.1%	15.4%	1.8%	4.46	4.68	+0.3
2021	21	AAA	Round Rock Express	21	21	86	332	107	31	7	26.5%	9.7%	2.1%	2.41	3.25	+1.9
2022	22	AAA	Round Rock Express	28	28	122	573	123	87	13	18.9%	15.9%	2.7%	6.51	5.01	+0.4
2023	23	AAA	Round Rock Express	29	13	101	493	97	79	17	17.3%	16.8%	3.7%	7.22	5.78	-0.5
2024	24	MLB	Texas Rangers	23	0	33	143	34	8	4	22.1%	5.7%	3.0%	5.73	3.61	+0.5
2025	25	MLB	Texas Rangers	50	0	72	280	60	28	4	20.4%	10.2%	1.5%	1.12	3.52	+1.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	26	MLB	Texas Rangers	9	0	9	37	9	4	2	—	—	—	3.12	—	—
ROS	26	MLB	TEX	55	—	55	231	51	24	7	22.2%	10.6%	2.9%	4.18	4.53	+0.3
2026 Total	26	MLB	TEX	—	—	63	268	60	28	9	22.5%	10.6%	3.2%	4.03	3.91	+0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	27	MLB	TEX	11	11	63	266	60	28	8	22.6%	10.5%	3.1%	4.44	4.58	+0.3
2028	28	MLB	TEX	11	11	62	262	59	27	8	22.6%	10.4%	3.1%	4.52	4.59	+0.3
2029	29	MLB	TEX	11	11	61	256	57	27	8	22.2%	10.4%	3.1%	4.59	4.65	+0.2
2030	30	MLB	TEX	59	—	59	248	54	26	8	21.7%	10.5%	3.2%	4.67	4.73	+0.1
2031	31	MLB	TEX	57	—	57	239	50	25	8	21.1%	10.7%	3.3%	4.77	4.84	+0.1
2032	32	MLB	TEX	54	—	54	230	47	25	8	20.4%	10.8%	3.3%	4.88	4.95	0.0
2033	33	MLB	TEX	52	—	52	220	43	24	8	19.8%	11.0%	3.4%	5.00	5.08	-0.1
2034	34	MLB	TEX	49	—	49	209	40	23	7	19.1%	11.2%	3.5%	5.13	5.22	-0.2
2035	35	MLB	TEX	47	—	47	197	36	22	7	18.3%	11.4%	3.6%	5.27	5.37	-0.2
2036	36	MLB	TEX	44	—	44	184	32	21	7	17.6%	11.7%	3.8%	5.43	5.53	-0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			178	80	491	2156	427	293	57	19.8%	13.6%	2.6%	4.74	4.59	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—			72	33	200	878	174	119	23	19.8%	13.6%	2.6%	4.74	4.59	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cole Winn (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.53	22.2%	10.6%	2.9%	—	4.61	22.5%	12.0%	186	+0.08	—	—	—
Tyler Bashlor R 2026 · 4.81 FIP	26	SW	4.81	20.7%	11.7%	3.6%	.258	4.07	23.7%	13.0%	38	-0.74	2.55	253	82
Jonathan Pintaro R 2026 · 3.43 FIP	26	SW	3.43	18.9%	9.4%	1.3%	.264	4.21	24.4%	11.2%	82	+0.78	3.43	152	80
Tanner Scheppers R 2028 · 4.38 FIP	28	SW	4.38	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.82	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.44	4.38	101	80
Nick Robertson R 2026 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	20.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.342	4.78	20.5%	6.4%	52	+0.23	3.43	281	80
David Goforth R 2026 · 4.06 FIP	26	SW	4.06	17.4%	9.8%	2.2%	.287	4.58	14.1%	3.6%	184	+0.52	4.06	256	80
Ryan Cook R 2028 · 4.78 FIP	28	SW	4.78	16.5%	9.9%	3.3%	.297	3.85	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.93	3.85	102	80
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.45 FIP	26	SW	4.45	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.78	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.65	315	79
Brett McKinney R 2026 · 4.57 FIP	26	SW	4.57	18.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	79
Brad Goldberg R 2026 · 3.86 FIP	26	SW	3.86	18.1%	10.8%	1.7%	.269	3.87	23.3%	7.2%	89	+0.01	3.14	197	79
Burch Smith R 2027 · 3.92 FIP	27	SW	3.92	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.45	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.53	3.42	365	79
Ryan Middendorf R 2026 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	19.6%	10.5%	3.9%	.293	4.50	12.8%	-1.5%	34	-0.43	1.27	164	79
JC Ramírez R 2026 · 3.80 FIP	26	SW	3.80	16.6%	8.6%	1.8%	.285	4.32	17.1%	10.0%	226	+0.52	3.80	369	78
Manny Barreda R 2026 · 5.08 FIP	26	SU	5.08	21.2%	14.7%	3.5%	.286	3.67	19.6%	9.5%	186	-1.41	3.25	376	78
Jonathan Hughes R 2026 · 4.31 FIP	26	SW	4.31	17.1%	9.2%	2.7%	.283	3.53	17.1%	4.9%	50	-0.78	3.42	219	78
Kyle Martin R 2026 · 4.44 FIP	26	SW	4.44	18.3%	10.0%	2.9%	.304	3.25	23.0%	10.0%	51	-1.19	3.01	214	78
Bryan Shaw R 2027 · 3.91 FIP	27	SW	3.91	20.4%	6.8%	3.0%	.276	3.53	23.3%	15.0%	198	-0.38	2.86	596	78
Carlos Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.79 FIP	26	SW	3.79	18.2%	8.7%	2.1%	.266	4.46	14.3%	2.3%	36	+0.67	3.75	154	78
Danny Kirwin R 2025 · 4.19 FIP	25	SW	4.19	16.8%	9.3%	2.4%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	135	78
Aaron Kurcz R 2026 · 4.80 FIP	26	SW	4.80	15.4%	8.4%	3.5%	.301	3.96	26.2%	21.8%	50	-0.84	3.31	213	77
Derek Law R 2026 · 3.80 FIP	26	SW	3.80	19.0%	7.7%	2.4%	.330	3.76	22.8%	12.5%	115	-0.04	2.51	520	77

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.