Cole Winn

P Texas Rangers

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBRPIL-6040-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	23	0	33	5.73	3.34	23.8%	5.6%	0.5	K 21.8% · BB 5.3% · FIP 3.56
2025	25	MIX2 levels	50	0	72	1.12	3.32	21.4%	10.0%	1.1	K 20.2% · BB 9.5% · FIP 3.39
2026	26	MIX2 levels	52	1	49	5.55	3.90	22.9%	7.3%	0.4	K 22.8% · BB 7.0% · FIP 3.72
2027PROJ	27	MLBTEX	23	0	24	4.35	4.26	22.4%	8.3%	0.1
2028PROJ92% MLB	28	MLBTEX	32	0	34	4.34	4.34	22.2%	8.5%	0.1
2029PROJ93% MLB	29	MLBTEX	26	0	27	4.44	4.50	21.6%	8.7%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo62

K%53

xwOBA vs29

CompsColeman Huntley III (age 28) · Edwin Quirarte (age 28) · Derek Gordon (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.35

FIP4.26

K%22.4%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%14.0%

Proj IP27

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6295.4

Whiff%

p6527.7%

p5322.8%

xwOBA vs

p290.337

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	19	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	18	18	69	298	65	39	5	100%	3.8	16.1%	15.4%	0.7%	1.8%	4.46	4.71	—
2019	19	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	18	18	69	298	65	39	5	100%	3.8	21.8%	13.1%	8.7%	1.7%	4.46	3.86	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	86	332	107	31	7	100%	4.1	26.5%	9.7%	16.9%	2.2%	2.41	3.28	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	86	332	107	31	7	100%	4.1	32.2%	9.3%	22.9%	2.1%	2.41	2.75	—
2022	22	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	28	28	122	573	123	87	13	100%	4.3	18.9%	15.9%	2.9%	2.6%	6.51	4.95	—
2022	22	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	28	28	122	573	123	87	13	100%	4.3	21.5%	15.2%	6.3%	2.3%	6.51	4.61	—
2023	23	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	29	13	101	493	97	79	17	45%	3.5	16.9%	14.4%	2.5%	3.7%	7.22	5.51	—
2023	23	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	29	13	101	493	97	79	17	45%	3.5	19.7%	16.0%	3.7%	3.4%	7.22	5.71	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	33	143	34	8	4	0%	1.4	21.8%	5.3%	16.5%	3.0%	5.73	3.56	+0.4
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	33	143	34	8	4	0%	1.4	21.8%	5.3%	16.5%	3.0%	5.73	3.56	+0.4
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	33	143	34	8	4	0%	1.4	23.8%	5.6%	18.2%	2.8%	5.73	3.34	+0.5
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	72	280	60	28	4	0%	1.4	20.2%	9.5%	10.6%	1.4%	1.12	3.39	+1.0
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	72	280	60	28	4	0%	1.4	20.2%	9.5%	10.6%	1.4%	1.12	3.39	+1.0
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	72	280	60	28	4	0%	1.4	21.4%	10.0%	11.4%	1.4%	1.12	3.32	+1.1
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	1	49	218	50	16	7	2%	0.9	22.8%	7.0%	15.8%	3.0%	5.55	3.72	+0.5
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	1	49	218	50	16	7	2%	0.9	22.8%	7.0%	15.8%	3.0%	5.55	3.72	+0.5
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	1	49	218	50	16	7	2%	0.9	22.9%	7.3%	15.6%	3.2%	5.55	3.90	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			97	1	107	454	98	34	12	1%	1.1	21.6%	7.5%	14.1%	2.6%	4.37	3.68	+1.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	TEX	23	0	24	101	23	8	3	0%	1.0	22.4%	8.3%	14.0%	2.9%	4.35	4.26	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	TEX	35	0	37	156	35	13	5	0%	1.1	22.2%	8.5%	13.7%	3.0%	4.34	4.34	+0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	TEX	28	0	29	124	27	11	4	0%	1.1	21.6%	8.7%	12.9%	3.2%	4.44	4.50	+0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	TEX	32	0	34	144	32	12	4	0%	1.1	22.2%	8.5%	13.7%	3.0%	4.34	4.34	+0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	TEX	26	0	27	114	25	10	4	0%	1.0	21.6%	8.7%	12.9%	3.2%	4.44	4.50	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		155	1	168	713	155	56	20	1%	1.1	21.7%	7.9%	13.8%	2.8%	4.38	3.81	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		185	1	200	847	184	67	24	1%	1.1	21.7%	7.9%	13.8%	2.8%	4.38	3.81	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		221	81	531	2337	465	290	61	37%	2.4	19.9%	12.4%	7.5%	2.6%	4.84	4.41	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		83	30	200	880	175	109	23	37%	2.4	19.9%	12.4%	7.5%	2.6%	4.84	4.41	+1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAARound Rock Express · 31 IPFIP 3.17 → 3.38 (+0.21)K% 21.2% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.19%	—	×0.860	18.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.02%	—	×0.900	9.92%
HR / BF /BF	0.85%	÷0.913	×1.100	1.02%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 3.17 → 3.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAARound Rock Express · 16 IPFIP 2.97 → 3.56 (+0.59)K% 30.3% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.30%	—	×0.860	26.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.06%	—	×0.900	5.45%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷0.928	×1.100	3.59%

Result: FIP 2.97 → 3.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAARound Rock Express · 101 IPFIP 5.36 → 5.51 (+0.15)K% 19.7% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.68%	—	×0.860	16.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.02%	—	×0.900	14.42%
HR / BF /BF	3.45%	÷1.035	×1.100	3.67%

Result: FIP 5.36 → 5.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAARound Rock Express · 122 IPFIP 4.46 → 4.95 (+0.50)K% 21.5% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.47%	—	×0.880	18.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.18%	—	×1.050	15.94%
HR / BF /BF	2.27%	÷0.957	×1.100	2.61%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 4.46 → 4.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 78 IPFIP 2.56 → 3.28 (+0.72)K% 32.8% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.77%	—	×0.810	26.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.78%	—	×1.100	9.66%
HR / BF /BF	2.03%	÷1.114	×1.200	2.18%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 123).

Result: FIP 2.56 → 3.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAARound Rock Express · 8 IPFIP 4.04 → 4.63 (+0.59)K% 27.8% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.78%	—	×0.880	24.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.89%	—	×1.050	14.58%
HR / BF /BF	2.78%	÷0.958	×1.100	3.19%

Result: FIP 4.04 → 4.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AHickory Crawdads · 69 IPFIP 3.84 → 4.71 (+0.87)K% 21.8% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.81%	—	×0.740	16.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.09%	—	×1.180	15.44%
HR / BF /BF	1.68%	÷1.183	×1.300	1.84%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 137).

Result: FIP 3.84 → 4.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cole Winn (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.26	22.4%	8.3%	2.9%	—	4.41	22.0%	13.4%	66	+0.15	—	—	—
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	74
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	71
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	71
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	71
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	70
DJ Baxendale R 2018 · 3.49 FIP	27	SW	3.49	18.1%	6.0%	2.1%	.355	5.71	20.0%	8.3%	49	+2.22	2.88	426	70
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	70
Wil Jensen R 2024 · 3.48 FIP	26	SW	3.48	22.7%	8.4%	2.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	368	70
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	69
Vinny Nittoli R 2019 · 4.18 FIP	28	SU	4.18	19.0%	6.9%	3.3%	.302	3.86	26.9%	20.4%	93	-0.32	3.66	331	69
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	69
Alan Busenitz R 2018 · 4.37 FIP	27	SU	4.37	23.2%	7.5%	4.1%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	436	69
Joe Navilhon R 2019 · 3.23 FIP	26	SU	3.23	20.5%	7.7%	1.6%	.322	4.28	23.4%	16.7%	99	+1.05	2.25	273	69
Austin Ross R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	27	SU	3.81	22.9%	8.0%	3.0%	.295	3.67	12.4%	5.2%	127	-0.14	3.16	269	68
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	68
TJ Shook R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	26	SW	4.15	23.7%	8.7%	3.5%	.317	3.92	20.0%	11.1%	107	-0.23	3.35	452	68
Hayden Wesneski R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	26	SW	4.17	23.3%	7.3%	3.8%	.259	3.77	20.7%	14.1%	106	-0.40	3.31	561	68
Connor Schultz R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	25	SU	3.88	19.7%	5.3%	3.2%	.283	4.02	18.8%	10.4%	156	+0.14	3.53	203	68
Paxton Schultz R 2024 · 3.83 FIP	26	SW	3.83	24.4%	9.8%	2.8%	.306	4.15	22.5%	15.1%	135	+0.32	3.83	543	68
Derek Law R 2018 · 3.22 FIP	27	SU	3.22	22.1%	7.3%	1.9%	.305	4.02	22.5%	10.2%	104	+0.80	2.49	520	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	41	21.8%	8.3%	1.10	4.37
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*