Cole Winn — OGILVIE

Cole Winn P Texas Rangers

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2027 ILInjured 15-Day (D15)

2026 ROS PROJECTION49 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 96

ERA3.78

FIP3.91

K%21.6%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%12.7%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6295.4

Whiff%

p6527.7%

p5322.8%

xwOBA vs

p290.337

CT+1.4 (29%)

SL+1.2 (24%)

SI (2%)

FB-2.7 (33%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	19	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	18	18	69	298	65	39	5	100%	3.8	16.1%	15.4%	0.7%	1.8%	4.46	4.71	—
2019	19	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	18	18	69	298	65	39	5	100%	3.8	21.8%	13.1%	8.7%	1.7%	4.46	3.86	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	86	332	107	31	7	100%	4.1	26.5%	9.7%	16.9%	2.2%	2.41	3.28	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	86	332	107	31	7	100%	4.1	32.2%	9.3%	22.9%	2.1%	2.41	2.75	—
2022	22	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	28	28	122	573	123	87	13	100%	4.3	18.9%	15.9%	2.9%	2.6%	6.51	4.95	—
2022	22	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	28	28	122	573	123	87	13	100%	4.3	21.5%	15.2%	6.3%	2.3%	6.51	4.61	—
2023	23	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	29	13	101	493	97	79	17	45%	3.5	16.3%	14.4%	1.9%	3.7%	7.22	5.56	—
2023	23	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	29	13	101	493	97	79	17	45%	3.5	16.3%	14.4%	1.9%	3.7%	7.22	5.56	—
2023	23	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	29	13	101	493	97	79	17	45%	3.5	19.7%	16.0%	3.7%	3.4%	7.22	5.71	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	33	143	34	8	4	0%	1.4	21.4%	5.3%	16.1%	3.0%	5.73	3.59	+0.4
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	33	143	34	8	4	0%	1.4	21.4%	5.3%	16.1%	3.0%	5.73	3.59	+0.4
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	33	143	34	8	4	0%	1.4	23.8%	5.6%	18.2%	2.8%	5.73	3.34	+0.5
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	72	280	60	28	4	0%	1.4	19.9%	9.5%	10.4%	1.4%	1.12	3.41	+1.0
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	72	280	60	28	4	0%	1.4	19.9%	9.5%	10.4%	1.4%	1.12	3.41	+1.0
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	72	280	60	28	4	0%	1.4	21.4%	10.0%	11.4%	1.4%	1.12	3.32	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			97	1	107	454	98	34	12	1%	1.1	21.6%	7.5%	14.1%	2.6%	4.37	3.68	+1.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	52	1	49	218	50	16	7	2%	0.9	22.8%	7.0%	15.8%	3.0%	5.55	3.72	+0.5
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	52	1	49	218	50	16	7	2%	0.9	22.8%	7.0%	15.8%	3.0%	5.55	3.72	+0.5
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AAA RAW	TEX	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	0%	0.7	33.3%	33.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.51	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	TEX	51	1	48	215	49	15	7	2%	0.9	22.8%	7.0%	15.8%	3.3%	5.62	3.85	+0.4
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	TEX	51	1	48	215	49	15	7	2%	0.9	22.8%	7.0%	15.8%	3.3%	5.62	3.85	+0.4
ROS	26	MLB MLE	TEX	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	21.6%	8.9%	12.7%	2.8%	3.78	3.91	+0.0
ROS	26	MLB CTX	TEX	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	21.6%	8.9%	12.7%	2.8%	3.78	3.91	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	55	243	55	18	8	—	—	22.8%	7.5%	15.3%	3.2%	5.36	3.74	+0.5
FULL	26	MLB A+C	TEX	—	—	54	227	55	18	8	—	—	24.3%	8.0%	16.3%	3.4%	5.42	3.91	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	TEX	146	0	153	648	139	58	19	0%	1.1	21.4%	8.9%	12.5%	2.9%	4.35	4.41	+0.2
2028	28	MLB MLE	TEX	146	0	153	648	138	59	20	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.1%	12.2%	3.0%	4.44	4.50	+0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	TEX	140	0	146	619	128	58	20	0%	1.0	20.7%	9.3%	11.4%	3.2%	4.57	4.66	-0.2
2030	30	MLB MLE	TEX	131	0	138	581	116	56	20	0%	1.1	20.0%	9.6%	10.4%	3.4%	4.75	4.86	-0.5
2027	27	MLB CTX	TEX	139	0	146	616	132	55	18	0%	1.1	21.4%	8.9%	12.5%	2.9%	4.35	4.41	+0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	TEX	139	0	146	616	131	56	19	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.1%	12.2%	3.0%	4.44	4.50	+0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	TEX	132	0	139	587	122	55	19	0%	1.1	20.7%	9.3%	11.4%	3.2%	4.57	4.66	-0.2
2030	30	MLB CTX	TEX	125	0	131	553	111	53	19	0%	1.0	20.0%	9.6%	10.4%	3.4%	4.75	4.86	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		637	1	674	2849	598	255	87	0%	1.1	21.0%	8.9%	12.1%	3.0%	4.49	4.13	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		189	0	200	845	177	76	26	0%	1.1	21.0%	8.9%	12.1%	3.0%	4.49	4.13	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		221	81	531	2337	461	290	61	37%	2.4	19.7%	12.4%	7.3%	2.6%	4.84	4.43	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		83	30	200	880	174	109	23	37%	2.4	19.7%	12.4%	7.3%	2.6%	4.84	4.43	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cole Winn (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.52	20.5%	10.0%	2.7%	—	4.52	21.1%	12.0%	453	+0.00	—	—	—
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	299	76
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	75
R.J. Alaniz R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	26	SU	3.91	20.7%	8.9%	2.6%	.318	3.28	23.8%	15.0%	96	-0.63	2.45	362	75
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	75
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	74
Madison Younginer IV R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	26	SU	4.22	23.0%	9.8%	3.3%	.370	4.73	14.0%	-5.3%	27	+0.51	3.08	219	74
Tyler Kinley R 2017 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	25.0%	10.3%	2.6%	.295	3.82	25.0%	11.7%	140	+0.08	1.58	595	73
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	73
John Brebbia R 2016 · 4.11 FIP	26	SU	4.11	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.346	3.20	27.6%	21.4%	215	-0.91	2.89	575	73
Juan Minaya R 2017 · 3.69 FIP	26	SU	3.69	24.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.291	3.63	25.1%	14.5%	132	-0.06	3.20	446	73
Spencer Stockton R 2022 · 4.18 FIP	26	SU	4.18	20.2%	10.3%	2.7%	.276	5.46	18.7%	6.2%	63	+1.28	1.93	233	73
Jhan Mariñez R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	26	SU	3.50	23.1%	9.3%	2.1%	.244	3.70	18.9%	11.1%	168	+0.20	3.16	253	72
Daniel Hudson R 2015 · 3.35 FIP	28	SU	3.35	24.5%	7.9%	2.4%	.302	3.78	22.8%	13.6%	168	+0.43	1.68	468	72
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	72
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	72
Joshua Loeschorn R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	23	SU	3.86	24.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.272	4.43	17.1%	8.4%	83	+0.57	3.08	151	72
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	72
Miguel Sánchez R 2019 · 3.65 FIP	25	SU	3.65	21.3%	9.0%	2.2%	.305	4.59	19.1%	9.7%	83	+0.94	2.54	309	72
Colton Murray R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	26	SU	3.97	21.2%	9.4%	2.7%	.295	4.27	21.8%	13.1%	41	+0.30	3.34	187	72
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	146	20.8%	9.4%	1.18	4.50
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38