Juan Morillo
P
Arizona Diamondbacks
Age 27
RHP
6'1" / 150 lbs
MLB
peak 0.4 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION37 act + 27 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8575vR 66
ERA3.55
FIP3.60
K%26.9%
BB%12.5%
K-BB%14.4%
ROS IP27
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9098.6
Whiff%
p9032.6%
K%
p8929.4%
xwOBA vs
p900.242
FB+2.2 (65%)
CH+1.3 (18%)
SI (15%)
SL (17%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | DSL Dodgers 2 | 13 | 8 | 40 | 174 | 18 | 25 | 0 | 62% | 3.1 | 7.0% | 18.0% | -10.9% | 0.0% | 3.79 | 4.78 | — |
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | DSL Dodgers 2 | 13 | 8 | 40 | 174 | 18 | 25 | 0 | 62% | 3.1 | 10.3% | 14.4% | -4.0% | 0.0% | 3.79 | 4.07 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | DSL Dodgers 1 | 14 | 12 | 47 | 198 | 50 | 19 | 0 | 86% | 3.4 | 17.2% | 12.0% | 5.2% | 0.0% | 3.42 | 3.17 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | DSL Dodgers 1 | 14 | 12 | 47 | 198 | 50 | 19 | 0 | 86% | 3.4 | 25.3% | 9.6% | 15.7% | 0.0% | 3.42 | 2.19 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | AZL Dodgers | 6 | 3 | 22 | 90 | 28 | 13 | 1 | 50% | 3.7 | 21.2% | 18.1% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 3.22 | 4.45 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | AZL Dodgers | 6 | 3 | 22 | 90 | 28 | 13 | 1 | 50% | 3.7 | 31.1% | 14.4% | 16.7% | 1.1% | 3.22 | 2.92 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | AZL Dodgers Lasorda | 13 | 1 | 46 | 191 | 58 | 13 | 4 | 8% | 3.5 | 20.6% | 8.5% | 12.1% | 2.9% | 2.56 | 4.04 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | AZL Dodgers Lasorda | 13 | 1 | 46 | 191 | 58 | 13 | 4 | 8% | 3.5 | 30.4% | 6.8% | 23.6% | 2.1% | 2.56 | 2.55 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.7 | 57.1% | 0.0% | 57.1% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -1.73 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.7 | 57.1% | 0.0% | 57.1% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -1.70 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 2 | 33 | 152 | 48 | 22 | 5 | 6% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 16.2% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.86 | 6.19 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 2 | 33 | 152 | 48 | 22 | 5 | 6% | 1.0 | 31.6% | 14.5% | 17.1% | 3.3% | 4.86 | 4.15 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 41 | 0 | 51 | 222 | 50 | 29 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.2% | 14.4% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 4.76 | 4.96 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 41 | 0 | 51 | 222 | 50 | 29 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.5% | 13.1% | 9.5% | 2.7% | 4.76 | 4.37 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 55 | 242 | 56 | 29 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 22.1% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 1.4% | 3.58 | 3.51 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 55 | 242 | 56 | 29 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.1% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 1.2% | 3.58 | 3.35 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 41 | 0 | 37 | 153 | 45 | 13 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 29.4% | 8.5% | 20.9% | 1.3% | 2.89 | 2.41 | +0.9 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | ARI | 25 | 0 | 27 | 113 | 30 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.9% | 12.5% | 14.4% | 2.2% | 3.55 | 3.60 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | ARI | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 31 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.9% | 12.5% | 14.4% | 2.2% | 3.55 | 3.60 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 64 | 266 | 75 | 27 | 4 | — | — | 28.3% | 10.2% | 18.1% | 1.7% | 3.17 | 2.91 | +1.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 64 | 270 | 75 | 27 | 4 | — | — | 27.8% | 10.0% | 17.8% | 1.6% | 3.17 | 2.92 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 59 | 0 | 62 | 262 | 68 | 32 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.0% | 12.3% | 13.6% | 2.4% | 4.09 | 4.14 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 56 | 0 | 59 | 250 | 63 | 31 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.2% | 12.3% | 12.9% | 2.6% | 4.23 | 4.32 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 56 | 0 | 59 | 249 | 65 | 31 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.0% | 12.3% | 13.6% | 2.4% | 4.09 | 4.14 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 60 | 29 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.2% | 12.3% | 12.9% | 2.6% | 4.23 | 4.32 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 218 | 0 | 214 | 905 | 236 | 107 | 18 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.1% | 11.8% | 14.2% | 2.0% | 3.87 | 3.51 | +4.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 204 | 0 | 200 | 847 | 221 | 100 | 17 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.1% | 11.8% | 14.2% | 2.0% | 3.87 | 3.51 | +4.4 | ||
| Career | — | 227 | 27 | 334 | 1429 | 283 | 186 | 27 | 12% | 1.5 | 19.8% | 13.0% | 6.7% | 1.9% | 3.63 | 4.12 | +5.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 136 | 16 | 200 | 855 | 169 | 112 | 16 | 12% | 1.5 | 19.8% | 13.0% | 6.7% | 1.9% | 3.63 | 4.12 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Juan Morillo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.53 | 24.8% | 14.2% | 2.4% | — | 4.23 | 25.6% | 13.3% | 121 | -0.30 | — | — | — |
| Seth Halvorsen R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.15 | 23.0% | 12.9% | 2.5% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 111 | 79 |
| Shintaro Fujinami R 2028 · 3.99 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.99 | 23.2% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.88 | 22.5% | -2.9% | 51 | +0.89 | 3.99 | 130 | 78 |
| Tyler Kinley R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.39 | 27.2% | 11.8% | 2.0% | .331 | 3.99 | 23.5% | 11.8% | 159 | +0.60 | 1.58 | 578 | 78 |
| Brian Ellington R 2025 · 4.81 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.81 | 25.5% | 14.9% | 3.6% | .283 | 5.60 | 22.4% | 5.3% | 29 | +0.79 | 2.75 | 233 | 74 |
| Arquimedes Caminero R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 2.2% | .265 | 4.48 | 17.9% | 6.5% | 61 | +1.02 | 3.46 | 173 | 74 |
| Arodys Vizcaíno R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.47 | 25.3% | 8.9% | 2.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 183 | 74 |
| Jason Adam R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.39 | 24.2% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .237 | 2.64 | 33.1% | 24.9% | 88 | -0.75 | 2.45 | 394 | 74 |
| Daniel Robert R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.25 | 24.3% | 16.3% | 2.1% | .312 | 3.31 | 25.0% | 14.7% | 130 | -0.94 | 2.16 | 186 | 73 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.54 | 31.7% | 13.1% | 2.7% | .264 | 2.30 | 30.3% | 22.6% | 30 | -1.24 | 2.30 | 132 | 73 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.94 | 26.4% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .274 | 4.93 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 69 | +0.99 | 3.68 | 181 | 73 |
| Kyle Barraclough R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.42 | 26.6% | 12.2% | 1.8% | .282 | 5.00 | 24.5% | 12.2% | 89 | +1.58 | 1.95 | 523 | 72 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 71 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 24.9% | 14.5% | 2.7% | .360 | 5.09 | 15.3% | 3.1% | 58 | +0.79 | 3.42 | 173 | 71 |
| Ray Black R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.16 | 30.0% | 24.6% | 0.9% | .281 | 3.96 | 34.6% | 23.4% | 94 | -0.20 | 2.96 | 150 | 71 |
| Jaden Hill R 2025 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 22.0% | 11.8% | 1.6% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.41 | 156 | 71 |
| Yosver Zulueta R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.59 | 27.5% | 13.4% | 3.8% | .226 | 4.22 | 18.8% | 1.7% | 68 | -0.37 | 3.20 | 314 | 71 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.69 | 2.59 | 309 | 71 |
| Spencer Patton R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.46 | 26.8% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .295 | 2.74 | 30.3% | 18.1% | 57 | -0.72 | 2.74 | 239 | 71 |
| Tayron Guerrero R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.06 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 3.2% | .344 | 4.92 | 20.6% | 5.0% | 65 | +0.86 | 2.18 | 355 | 70 |
| José Ramírez R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.56 | 21.7% | 10.9% | 3.5% | .218 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 206 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 62 | 25.3% | 13.0% | 0.95 | 4.27 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |