Juan Morillo
P
Arizona Diamondbacks
+0.4
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'1" / 150 lbs
MLB
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA4.32
FIP4.41
xFIP3.30
SIERA3.00
K%22.3%
BB%11.6%
K-BB%10.7%
IP51
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL2525
CMD4040
K†6060
FB+2.2 (66%)
CH+1.3 (19%)
SI (13%)
SL (15%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | DSL Dodgers 2 | 13 | 8 | 40 | 174 | 18 | 25 | 0 | 7.0% | 18.0% | 0.0% | 3.79 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | DSL Dodgers 1 | 14 | 12 | 47 | 198 | 50 | 19 | 0 | 17.2% | 12.0% | 0.0% | 3.42 | 3.17 | +1.0 |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | AZL Dodgers | 6 | 3 | 22 | 90 | 28 | 13 | 1 | 21.2% | 18.1% | 1.6% | 3.22 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | AZL Dodgers Lasorda | 13 | 1 | 46 | 191 | 58 | 13 | 4 | 20.6% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 2.56 | 4.04 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 35 | 2 | 33 | 152 | 48 | 22 | 5 | 22.9% | 16.2% | 5.2% | 4.86 | 6.10 | -0.4 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 41 | 0 | 51 | 222 | 50 | 29 | 6 | 18.2% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 4.76 | 5.04 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 63 | 0 | 55 | 242 | 56 | 29 | 3 | 22.1% | 12.2% | 1.4% | 3.58 | 3.52 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 10 | 0 | 9 | 36 | 8 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | ARI | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 48 | 24 | 4 | 27.0% | 13.5% | 2.5% | 4.43 | 4.26 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 51 | 215 | 56 | 28 | 5 | 26.2% | 13.1% | 2.5% | 4.18 | 3.51 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 50 | — | 50 | 213 | 55 | 27 | 5 | 25.9% | 12.9% | 2.6% | 4.39 | 4.33 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 49 | — | 49 | 209 | 53 | 26 | 6 | 25.3% | 12.7% | 2.6% | 4.40 | 4.41 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 48 | — | 48 | 202 | 50 | 26 | 6 | 24.6% | 12.6% | 2.7% | 4.45 | 4.49 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 47 | 25 | 5 | 24.0% | 12.7% | 2.8% | 4.54 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 44 | 24 | 5 | 23.4% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.64 | 4.71 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 41 | 23 | 5 | 22.7% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 4.76 | 4.84 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 40 | — | 40 | 170 | 37 | 22 | 5 | 22.0% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 4.89 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 34 | 22 | 5 | 21.3% | 13.4% | 3.2% | 5.03 | 5.13 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 36 | — | 36 | 150 | 31 | 20 | 5 | 20.5% | 13.7% | 3.3% | 5.19 | 5.29 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 196 | 27 | 306 | 1312 | 246 | 177 | 26 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 2.0% | 3.71 | 4.32 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 128 | 18 | 200 | 858 | 161 | 116 | 17 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 2.0% | 3.71 | 4.32 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Juan Morillo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.26 | 27.0% | 13.5% | 2.5% | — | 4.41 | 25.3% | 12.6% | 148 | +0.15 | — | — | — |
| Shintaro Fujinami R 2028 · 4.01 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.01 | 23.2% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.91 | 22.5% | -2.9% | 51 | +0.90 | 4.01 | 130 | 80 |
| Brian Ellington R 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.68 | 25.5% | 14.9% | 3.4% | .283 | 5.60 | 22.4% | 5.3% | 29 | +0.92 | 2.75 | 233 | 77 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 18.5% | 13.6% | 2.2% | .256 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 146 | 76 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 75 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 74 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 74 |
| Daniel Robert R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.24 | 24.3% | 16.3% | 2.1% | .312 | 3.27 | 25.0% | 14.7% | 130 | -0.97 | 2.28 | 186 | 74 |
| Burch Smith R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.92 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.45 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.53 | 3.42 | 365 | 74 |
| Tyler Bashlor R 2025 · 4.81 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.81 | 20.7% | 11.7% | 3.6% | .258 | 4.07 | 23.7% | 13.0% | 38 | -0.74 | 2.55 | 253 | 74 |
| Tyler Kinley R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.38 | 27.2% | 11.8% | 2.0% | .331 | 4.08 | 23.5% | 11.8% | 159 | +0.70 | 1.58 | 544 | 74 |
| Arquimedes Caminero R 2027 · 3.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.38 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 2.1% | .265 | 4.49 | 17.9% | 6.5% | 61 | +1.11 | 3.38 | 173 | 74 |
| Jake Barrett R 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.32 | 26.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .266 | 1.48 | 29.8% | 22.7% | 15 | -1.84 | 1.48 | 230 | 74 |
| Brad Goldberg R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.38 | 18.4% | 15.4% | 1.6% | .331 | 3.14 | 30.3% | 13.3% | 36 | -1.24 | 3.14 | 197 | 74 |
| José Ramírez R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.63 | 21.7% | 10.9% | 3.6% | .218 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 206 | 73 |
| Austin Adams R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.51 | 18.6% | 9.5% | 1.4% | .331 | 3.28 | 21.1% | 15.0% | 56 | -0.23 | 3.28 | 162 | 73 |
| Luis García R 2027 · 3.21 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.21 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 1.2% | .327 | 3.19 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 187 | -0.02 | 2.26 | 602 | 73 |
| Nick Robertson R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.78 | 20.5% | 14.1% | 2.9% | .237 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 281 | 73 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.76 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 117 | 73 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.41 | 24.9% | 14.5% | 2.9% | .360 | 5.38 | 15.3% | 3.1% | 58 | +0.97 | 3.46 | 173 | 72 |
| Shawn Dubin R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.05 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 3.2% | .292 | 3.92 | 21.8% | 11.4% | 79 | -1.13 | 3.02 | 341 | 72 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.