Juan Morillo — OGILVIE

Juan Morillo P Arizona Diamondbacks

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 150 lbs MLB peak 0.5 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION58 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8779vR 71

ERA3.56

FIP3.61

K%26.5%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%14.9%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL2525

CMD4040

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.7

Whiff%

p7729.5%

p8228.2%

xwOBA vs

p900.246

FB+2.2 (66%)

CH+1.3 (21%)

SI (18%)

SL (13%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	17	ROK MLE	DSL Dodgers 2	13	8	40	174	18	25	0	62%	3.1	7.0%	18.0%	-10.9%	0.0%	3.79	4.78	—
2016	17	ROK RAW	DSL Dodgers 2	13	8	40	174	18	25	0	62%	3.1	10.3%	14.4%	-4.0%	0.0%	3.79	4.07	—
2017	18	ROK MLE	DSL Dodgers 1	14	12	47	198	50	19	0	86%	3.4	17.2%	12.0%	5.2%	0.0%	3.42	3.17	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	DSL Dodgers 1	14	12	47	198	50	19	0	86%	3.4	25.3%	9.6%	15.7%	0.0%	3.42	2.19	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	AZL Dodgers	6	3	22	90	28	13	1	50%	3.7	21.2%	18.1%	3.1%	1.6%	3.22	4.45	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	AZL Dodgers	6	3	22	90	28	13	1	50%	3.7	31.1%	14.4%	16.7%	1.1%	3.22	2.92	—
2019	20	ROK MLE	AZL Dodgers Lasorda	13	1	46	191	58	13	4	8%	3.5	20.6%	8.5%	12.1%	2.9%	2.56	4.04	—
2019	20	ROK RAW	AZL Dodgers Lasorda	13	1	46	191	58	13	4	8%	3.5	30.4%	6.8%	23.6%	2.1%	2.56	2.55	—
2021	22	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	1	1	2	7	4	0	0	100%	1.7	57.1%	0.0%	57.1%	0.0%	0.00	-1.73	—
2021	22	A+ RAW	Great Lakes Loons	1	1	2	7	4	0	0	100%	1.7	57.1%	0.0%	57.1%	0.0%	0.00	-1.70	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	2	33	152	48	22	5	6%	1.0	22.9%	16.2%	6.7%	5.1%	4.86	6.03	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	2	33	152	48	22	5	6%	1.0	22.9%	16.2%	6.7%	5.1%	4.86	6.03	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	2	33	152	48	22	5	6%	1.0	31.6%	14.5%	17.1%	3.3%	4.86	4.15	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	41	0	51	222	50	29	6	0%	1.2	18.2%	14.4%	3.9%	3.1%	4.76	5.05	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	41	0	51	222	50	29	6	0%	1.2	18.2%	14.4%	3.9%	3.1%	4.76	5.05	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	41	0	51	222	50	29	6	0%	1.2	22.5%	13.1%	9.5%	2.7%	4.76	4.37	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	55	242	56	29	3	0%	0.9	21.7%	11.6%	10.1%	1.4%	3.58	3.49	+0.7
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	55	242	56	29	3	0%	0.9	21.7%	11.6%	10.1%	1.4%	3.58	3.49	+0.7
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	63	0	55	242	56	29	3	0%	0.9	23.1%	12.0%	11.2%	1.2%	3.58	3.35	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			105	0	93	390	103	40	5	0%	0.9	26.4%	10.3%	16.2%	1.3%	3.01	2.87	+1.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	63	0	58	238	67	20	3	0%	0.9	28.2%	8.4%	19.7%	1.3%	2.31	2.52	+1.4
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	63	0	58	238	67	20	3	0%	0.9	28.2%	8.4%	19.7%	1.3%	2.31	2.52	+1.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	MLB RAW	ARI	63	0	58	238	67	20	3	0%	0.9	28.2%	8.4%	19.7%	1.3%	2.31	2.48	+1.4
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	ARI	63	0	58	238	67	20	3	0%	0.9	28.2%	8.4%	19.7%	1.3%	2.31	2.48	+1.4
ROS	27	MLB MLE	ARI	5	0	5	23	6	3	1	0%	1.1	26.5%	11.6%	14.9%	2.3%	3.56	3.61	+0.1
ROS	27	MLB CTX	ARI	5	0	5	21	6	2	0	0%	1.0	26.5%	11.6%	14.9%	2.3%	3.56	3.61	+0.1
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	ARI	—	—	64	261	73	23	4	—	—	28.0%	8.7%	19.3%	1.4%	2.42	2.61	+1.6
FULL	27	MLB A+C	ARI	—	—	64	269	73	23	4	—	—	27.1%	8.4%	18.7%	1.3%	2.42	2.59	+1.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	ARI	59	0	62	262	67	30	6	0%	1.1	25.7%	11.5%	14.2%	2.3%	3.96	4.01	+0.4
2028	29	MLB MLE	ARI	56	0	59	250	63	29	6	0%	1.1	25.0%	11.6%	13.4%	2.5%	4.11	4.20	+0.2
2027	28	MLB CTX	ARI	56	0	59	249	64	29	6	0%	1.1	25.7%	11.5%	14.2%	2.3%	3.96	4.01	+0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	ARI	53	0	56	236	59	27	6	0%	1.1	25.0%	11.6%	13.4%	2.5%	4.11	4.20	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		220	0	213	900	233	99	17	0%	1.0	25.8%	11.0%	14.9%	1.9%	3.58	3.35	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		206	0	200	843	218	93	16	0%	1.0	25.8%	11.0%	14.9%	1.9%	3.58	3.35	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		249	27	355	1514	304	192	28	11%	1.4	20.1%	12.7%	7.4%	1.9%	3.50	4.03	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		140	15	200	852	171	108	16	11%	1.4	20.1%	12.7%	7.4%	1.9%	3.50	4.03	+2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Morillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.51	24.5%	13.8%	2.5%	—	4.10	25.4%	13.8%	121	-0.41	—	—	—
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.55	21.2%	-0.6%	51	+0.46	4.09	130	78
Tyler Kinley R 2018 · 3.36 FIP	27	SU	3.36	27.2%	11.8%	1.9%	.331	4.14	23.5%	11.8%	159	+0.78	1.58	595	78
Daniel Hudson R 2015 · 3.35 FIP	28	SU	3.35	24.5%	7.9%	2.4%	.302	3.78	22.8%	13.6%	168	+0.43	1.68	468	77
Arquimedes Caminero R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	28	SU	3.54	23.0%	8.5%	2.4%	.265	4.45	17.9%	6.5%	61	+0.91	3.54	173	76
Jason Adam R 2019 · 3.39 FIP	27	SU	3.39	24.2%	9.0%	2.2%	.237	2.64	33.1%	24.9%	88	-0.75	2.42	394	76
Jake Barrett R 2018 · 3.31 FIP	27	SU	3.31	26.1%	13.0%	1.4%	.266	1.48	29.8%	22.7%	15	-1.83	1.48	230	75
Hunter Bigge R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	25	SU	4.02	23.1%	14.6%	1.9%	.316	4.74	26.0%	14.8%	101	+0.72	3.44	229	74
Arodys Vizcaíno R 2018 · 3.47 FIP	27	SU	3.47	25.3%	8.9%	2.5%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	2.28	183	74
Brian Ellington R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	26	SU	4.75	25.5%	14.9%	3.5%	.283	5.61	22.4%	5.3%	29	+0.86	2.75	233	74
Alex Hoppe R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	24	SU	4.21	23.7%	9.2%	3.5%	.371	3.94	20.7%	8.7%	184	-0.27	3.13	233	73
Juan Minaya R 2018 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	27.0%	11.4%	2.1%	.282	3.82	24.0%	13.2%	131	+0.42	3.20	446	73
Taylor Williams R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	24.2%	8.9%	2.4%	.309	4.35	22.5%	12.7%	108	+0.83	2.51	309	73
Jon Edwards R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	31.7%	13.1%	2.4%	.264	2.40	30.3%	22.6%	30	-1.00	2.40	132	73
Isaiah Campbell R 2023 · 3.35 FIP	25	SU	3.35	25.5%	9.2%	2.3%	.273	4.07	18.3%	11.8%	126	+0.72	3.31	244	72
Spencer Patton R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	27	SU	3.47	26.8%	9.6%	2.6%	.295	2.79	30.3%	18.1%	57	-0.68	2.79	239	72
Kyle Barraclough R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	27	SU	3.42	26.6%	12.2%	1.8%	.282	4.99	24.5%	12.2%	89	+1.57	1.95	523	72
Daniel Robert R 2022 · 4.20 FIP	27	SU	4.20	24.3%	16.3%	2.0%	.312	3.23	23.7%	14.6%	130	-0.97	2.32	186	72
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	72
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	26.4%	14.3%	2.3%	.274	4.86	21.0%	9.6%	69	+0.93	3.84	181	72
Zac Leigh R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	28.1%	11.7%	3.0%	.282	4.58	19.9%	3.7%	131	+0.74	3.70	201	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	62	25.1%	12.3%	0.93	4.18
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68