James Nelson
3B Sugar Land Space Cowboys| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 24 | A+NYY | 184 | .221/.366/.302 | 2 | 16 | 42 | — | .168/.268/.236 |
| 2023 | 25 | INTLCharros de Ja… | 32 | .107/.219/.214 | 0 | 0 | 26 | — | |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA/AAHOU | 207 | .269/.316/.425 | 7 | 11 | 62 | — | .230/.267/.342 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 29 | MLBHOU | 14 | .230/.285/.360 | 0 | 0 | 79 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 30 | MLBHOU | 44 | .227/.283/.355 | 1 | 1 | 77 | -0.0 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | GCL Marlins | — | 180 | 161 | 45 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 30 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 280 | 345 | 360 | 705 | 81 | 331 | 17 | 8 | 316 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | A | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 432 | 395 | 122 | 31 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 106 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 309 | 359 | 456 | 815 | 147 | 399 | 25 | 6 | 357 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A+ | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 253 | 232 | 49 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 66 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 211 | 265 | 280 | 545 | 69 | 281 | 26 | 5 | 247 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 470 | 429 | 98 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 30 | 89 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 228 | 284 | 296 | 580 | 68 | 274 | 19 | 6 | 261 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 310 | 276 | 68 | 13 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 90 | 6 | 16 | 7 | 246 | 322 | 359 | 681 | 112 | 339 | 29 | 8 | 308 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 184 | 149 | 33 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 56 | 3 | 16 | 7 | 221 | 366 | 302 | 668 | 81 | 337 | 30 | 17 | 317 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | INTL | Charros de Jalisco | — | 32 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 107 | 219 | 214 | 433 | 107 | 136 | 19 | 9 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 190 | 178 | 48 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 52 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 270 | 312 | 433 | 745 | 163 | 342 | 27 | 4 | 329 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 17 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 267 | 353 | 333 | 686 | 67 | 364 | 24 | 12 | 317 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Marlins | — | 180 | 166 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 43 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 211 | 260 | 271 | 531 | 60 | 266 | 24 | 5 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | A MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 432 | 404 | 107 | 24 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 140 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 265 | 303 | 371 | 674 | 106 | 377 | 32 | 4 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A+ MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 253 | 235 | 43 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 93 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 183 | 229 | 251 | 480 | 68 | 273 | 37 | 4 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 470 | 436 | 80 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 125 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 183 | 229 | 243 | 473 | 60 | 237 | 27 | 5 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 310 | 283 | 54 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 122 | 6 | 16 | 7 | 191 | 254 | 269 | 523 | 78 | 299 | 39 | 6 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 184 | 161 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 72 | 3 | 16 | 7 | 168 | 268 | 236 | 504 | 68 | 281 | 39 | 10 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 190 | 180 | 41 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 62 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 228 | 265 | 344 | 609 | 117 | 315 | 33 | 3 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 17 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 294 | 312 | 607 | 62 | 314 | 29 | 6 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Marlins | — | 180 | 166 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 43 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 211 | 260 | 271 | 531 | 60 | 272 | 24 | 5 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Marlins | — | 180 | 161 | 45 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 30 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 280 | 345 | 360 | 705 | 81 | 331 | 17 | 8 | 316 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | A MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 432 | 404 | 107 | 24 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 140 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 265 | 303 | 371 | 674 | 106 | 385 | 32 | 4 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | A RAW | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 432 | 395 | 122 | 31 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 106 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 309 | 359 | 456 | 815 | 147 | 399 | 25 | 6 | 357 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A+ MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 253 | 235 | 43 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 93 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 183 | 229 | 251 | 480 | 68 | 287 | 37 | 4 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A+ RAW | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 253 | 232 | 49 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 66 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 211 | 265 | 280 | 545 | 69 | 281 | 26 | 5 | 247 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 470 | 436 | 80 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 125 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 183 | 229 | 243 | 473 | 60 | 242 | 27 | 5 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ RAW | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 470 | 429 | 98 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 30 | 89 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 228 | 284 | 296 | 580 | 68 | 274 | 19 | 6 | 261 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 310 | 283 | 54 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 122 | 6 | 16 | 7 | 191 | 254 | 269 | 523 | 78 | 312 | 39 | 6 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ RAW | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 310 | 276 | 68 | 13 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 90 | 6 | 16 | 7 | 246 | 322 | 359 | 681 | 112 | 339 | 29 | 8 | 308 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 184 | 161 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 72 | 3 | 16 | 7 | 168 | 268 | 236 | 504 | 68 | 284 | 39 | 10 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ RAW | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 184 | 149 | 33 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 56 | 3 | 16 | 7 | 221 | 366 | 302 | 668 | 81 | 337 | 30 | 17 | 317 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | INTL MLE | Charros de Jalisco | — | 32 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 107 | 219 | 214 | 433 | 107 | 136 | 19 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | INTL RAW | Charros de Jalisco | — | 32 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 107 | 219 | 214 | 433 | 107 | 136 | 19 | 9 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 207 | 196 | 45 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 67 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 230 | 267 | 342 | 609 | 112 | 320 | 32 | 3 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 207 | 193 | 52 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 56 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 269 | 316 | 425 | 740 | 155 | 344 | 27 | 5 | 328 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Marlins | — | 180 | 167 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 43 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 210 | 260 | 269 | 529 | 60 | 266 | 24 | 5 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | A MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 432 | 407 | 107 | 24 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 140 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 263 | 303 | 369 | 671 | 106 | 377 | 32 | 4 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A+ MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 253 | 237 | 43 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 93 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 181 | 229 | 249 | 478 | 68 | 273 | 37 | 4 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 470 | 441 | 80 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 125 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 181 | 229 | 240 | 470 | 59 | 237 | 27 | 5 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 310 | 283 | 54 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 122 | 6 | 16 | 7 | 191 | 254 | 269 | 523 | 78 | 299 | 39 | 6 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 184 | 160 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 72 | 3 | 16 | 7 | 169 | 268 | 237 | 505 | 69 | 281 | 39 | 10 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 207 | 195 | 45 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 67 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 231 | 267 | 344 | 611 | 113 | 315 | 32 | 3 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 207 | 195 | 45 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 67 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 231 | 267 | 344 | 611 | 113 | 315 | 32 | 3 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | HOU | 10% | 257 | 237 | 53 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 73 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 227 | 283 | 357 | 640 | 130 | 298 | 28 | 6 | 286 | 79 | -6 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +6 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | HOU | 10% | 14 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 230 | 285 | 360 | 645 | 131 | 303 | 29 | 7 | 288 | 79 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | HOU | 27% | 162 | 149 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 46 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 225 | 281 | 352 | 633 | 127 | 296 | 28 | 6 | 283 | 77 | -4 | +0 | -2 | +1 | +4 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | HOU | 27% | 44 | 40 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 227 | 283 | 355 | 638 | 128 | 300 | 30 | 7 | 285 | 77 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 44 | 40 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 225 | 295 | 350 | 645 | 125 | 308 | 30 | 7 | 285 | 51 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 591 | 134 | 30 | 0 | 15 | 44 | 192 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 227 | 297 | 354 | 651 | 127 | 310 | 30 | 7 | 285 | 51 | -17 | +3 | -8 | +2 | +14 | -0.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2365 | 2182 | 456 | 87 | 6 | 30 | 124 | 753 | 31 | 70 | 28 | 209 | 261 | 296 | 557 | 87 | 299 | 32 | 5 | 243 | 51 | -8 | +1 | -2 | +1 | +6 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 600 | 126 | 24 | 2 | 8 | 34 | 207 | 9 | 19 | 8 | 210 | 263 | 297 | 560 | 87 | 301 | 32 | 5 | 243 | 51 | -17 | +2 | -5 | +2 | +14 | -0.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 190 PAwOBA .321 → .261 (−60)K% 27.4% → 32.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.37% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 2.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.58% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 1.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.19% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×0.982 | 25.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.982 | 5.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 3.82% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .321 → .261; ISO .163 → .113; BABIP .342 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 17 PAwOBA .310 → .246 (−63)K% 23.5% → 28.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.53% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.958 | 7.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.958 | 24.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.958 | 7.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .310 → .246; ISO .067 → .053; BABIP .364 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 184 PAwOBA .312 → .230 (−82)K% 30.4% → 39.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.43% | ÷1.015 | ×1.310 | — | — | 39.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.85% | ÷0.976 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.978 | 10.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.63% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.978 | 1.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.88% | ÷1.084 | ×0.870 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 22.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.45% | ÷0.895 | ×0.780 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 5.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.028 | ×0.850 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.15% | ÷1.014 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 1.82% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 117, 2B 79, 3B 106, K 103, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .312 → .230; ISO .081 → .069; BABIP .337 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 310 PAwOBA .303 → .232 (−71)K% 29.0% → 39.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.03% | ÷1.000 | ×1.350 | — | — | 39.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.06% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 5.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.94% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 1.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.34% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.008 | ×0.988 | 23.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.99% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.008 | ×0.988 | 5.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.008 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 2.65% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .303 → .232; ISO .112 → .083; BABIP .339 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Jupiter Hammerheads · 470 PAwOBA .259 → .213 (−46)K% 18.9% → 26.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.94% | ÷1.007 | ×1.420 | — | — | 26.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.38% | ÷0.998 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.012 | 4.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.64% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.012 | 0.60% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.24% | ÷1.045 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 19.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.82% | ÷0.931 | ×0.960 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 3.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.59% | ÷1.120 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.18% | ÷0.803 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 1.30% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 61, 1B 109, 2B 86, 3B 124, K 101, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .259 → .213; ISO .068 → .063; BABIP .274 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Jupiter Hammerheads · 253 PAwOBA .242 → .210 (−32)K% 26.1% → 36.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.09% | ÷1.009 | ×1.420 | — | — | 36.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.74% | ÷0.967 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.027 | 3.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.58% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.027 | 1.51% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.29% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×1.008 | ×1.027 | 20.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.02% | ÷0.903 | ×0.960 | ×1.008 | ×1.027 | 6.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.008 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.20% | ÷0.850 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 1.28% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 104, 2B 80, 3B 130, K 102, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .242 → .210; ISO .069 → .066; BABIP .281 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AGreensboro Grasshoppers · 432 PAwOBA .352 → .294 (−57)K% 24.5% → 32.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.54% | ÷1.013 | ×1.340 | — | — | 32.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.79% | ÷0.991 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.030 | 3.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.16% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.030 | 0.92% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.03% | ÷0.994 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 28.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.73% | ÷1.066 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 8.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.04% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 0.92% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.42% | ÷1.168 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.030 | 1.75% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 134, 1B 99, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 103, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .352 → .294; ISO .147 → .110; BABIP .399 → .377. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 ROKGCL Marlins · 180 PAwOBA .313 → .233 (−80)K% 16.7% → 24.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.67% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 24.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.78% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 4.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.11% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.95% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.003 | ×1.008 | 21.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.63% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.003 | ×1.008 | 5.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.003 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.60% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.
Result: wOBA .313 → .233; ISO .081 → .058; BABIP .331 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .