James Nelson — OGILVIE

James Nelson3B Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 28 R/R 6'0" / 180 lbs AAA HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION207 act + 21 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†71

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA2

HR0

K%50

BB%5

BABIP290

ISO200

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2016	18	ROK	GCL Marlins	—	180	161	45	10	0	1	14	30	2	7	3	280	345	360	705	81	331	17	8	316	100	+0	+0	—	—	+4	0.4
2017	19	A	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	432	395	122	31	3	7	26	106	5	6	2	309	359	456	815	147	399	25	6	357	128	+14	+0	—	—	+9	2.5
2018	20	A+	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	253	232	49	10	0	2	13	66	4	1	0	211	265	280	545	69	281	26	5	247	53	-14	+0	—	—	+5	-0.9
2019	21	A+	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	470	429	98	13	2	4	30	89	3	5	3	228	284	296	580	68	274	19	6	261	63	-21	-0	—	—	+10	-1.1
2021	23	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	310	276	68	13	0	6	25	90	6	16	7	246	322	359	681	112	339	29	8	308	94	-2	+0	—	—	+7	0.5
2022	24	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	184	149	33	6	0	2	31	56	3	16	7	221	366	302	668	81	337	30	17	317	101	+0	+0	—	—	+4	0.5
2023	25	INTL	Charros de Jalisco	—	32	28	3	1	1	0	3	6	1	0	2	107	219	214	433	107	136	19	9	207	26	-3	-1	—	—	+1	-0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2016	18	ROK MLE	GCL Marlins	—	180	166	35	7	0	1	9	43	2	7	3	211	260	271	531	60	264	24	5	232	43	-12	+0	—	—	+4	-0.8
2017	19	A MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	432	404	105	24	2	5	17	140	5	6	2	260	298	366	664	106	366	32	4	286	80	-10	+0	—	—	+9	-0.1
2018	20	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	253	236	42	10	0	2	9	93	4	1	0	178	221	246	467	68	266	37	4	204	24	-23	+0	—	—	+5	-1.7
2019	21	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	470	436	79	12	1	4	23	125	3	5	3	181	227	241	468	60	234	27	5	210	28	-40	-0	—	—	+10	-3.1
2021	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	310	283	54	10	0	4	18	122	6	16	7	191	254	269	523	78	303	39	6	235	45	-20	+0	—	—	+7	-1.3
2022	24	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	184	159	28	5	0	2	21	74	3	16	7	176	284	245	529	69	303	40	11	241	49	-11	+0	—	—	+4	-0.7
2016	18	ROK MLE	GCL Marlins	—	180	166	35	7	0	1	9	43	2	7	3	211	260	271	531	60	272	24	5	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	GCL Marlins	—	180	161	45	10	0	1	14	30	2	7	3	280	345	360	705	81	331	17	8	316	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	A MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	432	404	105	24	2	5	17	140	5	6	2	260	298	366	664	106	377	32	4	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	A RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	432	395	122	31	3	7	26	106	5	6	2	309	359	456	815	147	399	25	6	357	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	253	236	42	10	0	2	9	93	4	1	0	178	221	246	467	68	278	37	4	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A+ RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	253	232	49	10	0	2	13	66	4	1	0	211	265	280	545	69	281	26	5	247	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	470	436	79	12	1	4	23	125	3	5	3	181	227	241	468	60	239	27	5	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A+ RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	470	429	98	13	2	4	30	89	3	5	3	228	284	296	580	68	274	19	6	261	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	310	283	54	10	0	4	18	122	6	16	7	191	254	269	523	78	312	39	6	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	310	276	68	13	0	6	25	90	6	16	7	246	322	359	681	112	339	29	8	308	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	184	159	28	5	0	2	21	74	3	16	7	176	284	245	529	69	310	40	11	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	184	149	33	6	0	2	31	56	3	16	7	221	366	302	668	81	337	30	17	317	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	INTL MLE	Charros de Jalisco	—	32	28	3	1	1	0	3	6	1	0	2	107	219	214	433	107	136	19	9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	INTL RAW	Charros de Jalisco	—	32	28	3	1	1	0	3	6	1	0	2	107	219	214	433	107	136	19	9	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	18	ROK MLE	GCL Marlins	—	180	167	35	7	0	1	9	43	2	7	3	210	260	269	529	60	264	24	5	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	A MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	432	407	105	24	2	5	17	140	5	6	2	258	298	364	662	106	366	32	4	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	253	238	42	10	0	2	9	93	4	1	0	176	221	244	465	67	266	37	4	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	470	441	79	12	1	4	23	125	3	5	3	179	227	238	465	59	234	27	5	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	310	283	54	10	0	4	18	122	6	16	7	191	254	269	523	78	303	39	6	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	184	158	28	5	0	2	21	74	3	16	7	177	284	247	531	70	303	40	11	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
YTD	28	AAA MLE	HOU	—	207	196	43	7	0	5	7	72	3	11	2	219	257	332	589	112	317	35	3	257	60	-10	+1	+0	+1	+4	-0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AA RAW	HOU	—	17	15	4	1	0	0	2	4	0	1	0	267	353	333	686	67	364	24	12	317	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	28	AAA RAW	HOU	—	190	178	48	8	0	7	8	52	3	10	2	270	312	433	745	163	342	27	4	329	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	28	AAA MLE	HOU	10%	21	20	5	1	0	1	1	6	0	1	0	250	286	450	736	200	288	29	5	274	71	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected rest
ROS	28	MLB CTX	HOU	10%	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						290	50	0	265	71	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	28	MLB A+C	HOU	—	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0							50	0	265	61	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	28	AAA MLE	HOU	—	228	216	48	8	0	6	8	78	3	12	2	222	260	343	603	120	316	34	4	259	61	-10	+2	+0	+1	+5	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	HOU	27%	416	383	82	15	1	10	25	123	5	12	3	214	271	337	608	123	288	30	6	277	74	-13	+1	-1	+1	+9	-0.3
2028	30	MLB MLE	HOU	37%	431	396	86	16	1	11	27	126	5	11	2	217	276	346	622	129	287	29	6	278	74	-13	+1	-2	+2	+9	-0.3
2027	29	MLB CTX	HOU	27%	114	105	23	4	0	3	7	34	1	3	1	219	274	343	617	124	290	30	6	268	74	-4	+0	-0	+0	+2	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	HOU	37%	161	148	32	6	0	4	10	47	2	4	1	216	275	338	613	122	289	29	6	269	74	-5	+0	-1	+1	+3	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	277	255	55	10	0	7	17	82	3	7	2	216	273	337	610	122	286	30	6	269	53	-9	+1	-1	+1	+6	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	598	128	23	0	16	40	192	7	16	5	214	271	333	604	119	284	30	6	269	53	-20	+1	-3	+2	+14	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	2729	2511	519	101	6	40	153	858	34	75	29	207	262	299	561	93	292	31	6	247	53	-27	+3	-3	+3	+19	-0.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	598	124	24	1	10	36	204	8	18	7	207	261	301	562	94	292	31	6	247	53	-20	+2	-3	+2	+14	-0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	3.6	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
/162	664	10	21	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.5	300	7	8	218	273	346	+1	+0	0.0	0.0
/162	664	16	18	+2.4	+1.1	0.1	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
James Nelson (OGILVIE)	28	—	—	—	—	214/268/338	124	288	6	8	30%	6%	71	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Aaron Sisk 2007 · AA	28	39	49→50	48→45	43	205/263/348	142	263	17	10	29%	7%	71	-0.8	223/279/369	146	284	18	8	27%	7%	82	-0.0	227/285/382	154	278	22	3	26%	6%	86	+0.1
✕Kyle Datres 2022 · A	26	40→42	47→50	54→55	46	201/285/337	136	272	14	18	30%	9%	78	-0.3	212/290/348	136	290	16	23	31%	8%	82	-0.0	203/285/337	134	276	17	26	31%	8%	75	-0.3
✕Michael Helman 2022 · A	26	38→41	49→50	52→55	45	202/261/351	149	244	17	14	25%	7%	71	-0.8	218/278/362	144	268	17	24	25%	7%	80	-0.2	209/267/365	156	250	18	20	24%	5%	74	-0.3
✕Brian O'Keefe 2021 · AA	28	41→43	46→55	45→40	47	211/281/338	127	262	14	5	25%	8%	76	-0.4	215/273/369	154	291	19	5	32%	7%	80	-0.2	196/260/359	163	245	20	1	28%	7%	70	-0.5
✕Camden Duzenack 2023 · AAA	28	39→36	49→50	51→50	37	207/247/351	144	269	17	13	30%	4%	65	-1.2	231/288/355	124	292	12	10	24%	6%	82	-0.0	243/308/345	102	303	9	6	22%	6%	84	+0.1
✕Quincy Latimore 2017 · AA	28	39→43	46→50	45→50	42	204/258/334	130	266	14	7	29%	6%	65	-1.2	216/265/341	125	294	14	8	30%	6%	70	-0.9	218/256/337	119	286	16	6	29%	4%	62	-1.0
✕Steve Moss 2011 · A	27	44→49	44→45	48→50	42	215/273/331	116	287	11	8	28%	6%	71	-0.8	237/300/378	141	327	17	11	31%	7%	92	+0.7	229/311/406	176	282	23	8	27%	9%	100	+0.3
✕Adam Fox 2010 · AAA	28	43→44	47→45	49→45	41	220/268/351	131	269	16	9	25%	5%	73	-0.6	197/244/320	123	248	13	9	25%	5%	57	-1.8	161/205/270	109	202	9	7	25%	5%	29	-1.4
✕Allan de San Miguel 2016 · A	28	45	44→45	48→40	43	217/292/331	115	304	11	9	31%	8%	78	-0.3	200/256/284	84	258	6	6	24%	5%	53	-2.1	170/224/235	65	218	4	0	23%	4%	28	-0.7
✕Jeff Nettles 2008 · AA	29	44→40	47→50	49→40	40	224/265/356	132	284	15	6	27%	5%	73	-0.6	220/266/364	144	250	18	4	20%	6%	76	-0.4	210/256/355	145	226	20	0	18%	5%	68	-1.0
✕Narciso Crook 2023 · AAA	28	43	50	48→50	39	215/284/368	153	314	17	14	36%	7%	84	+0.1	208/286/343	135	332	14	15	39%	8%	79	-0.2	170/265/285	115	293	12	17	42%	9%	57	-1.0
✕Patrick Brady 2016 · AAA	28	44	45	49→45	39	219/260/341	122	287	13	13	28%	5%	68	-1.0	215/275/314	99	307	6	11	30%	7%	67	-1.1	202/271/295	93	296	3	9	30%	8%	59	-0.8
✕Luis Aviles Jr. 2022 · AA	27	40→42	46→50	53→55	38	206/252/334	127	276	14	20	30%	5%	63	-1.3	209/251/345	136	285	14	20	31%	5%	65	-1.2	202/243/334	132	275	14	23	31%	4%	57	-1.2
✕Travis Garcia 2011 · AA	29	45	44→45	48→40	38	223/260/344	121	297	12	8	29%	5%	68	-1.0	242/284/405	163	318	20	10	30%	5%	93	+0.8	236/273/389	152	303	20	5	29%	3%	82	+0.0
✕Davis Stoneburner 2012 · AA	27	48→50	44→45	52→50	42	234/287/357	123	293	11	14	24%	5%	82	-0.0	207/262/296	89	277	5	15	26%	6%	58	-1.7	169/224/228	59	236	0	17	27%	5%	26	-2.4
✕Adam Engel 2020 · MLB	28	44→48	45→50	52→60	39	218/274/342	124	296	11	16	30%	5%	74	-0.6	235/293/378	143	305	15	19	27%	6%	89	+0.5	203/276/332	129	289	14	30	33%	7%	70	-0.4
✕Devin Ivany 2010 · AA	28	44→48	47→50	42→45	44	226/278/364	139	276	15	7	24%	6%	80	-0.1	215/268/327	112	280	11	9	26%	6%	68	-1.0	203/254/302	99	264	9	8	26%	5%	54	-0.7
✕Seth Bynum 2009 · AA	28	42→43	47→50	42→50	40	216/265/347	131	286	14	6	30%	6%	71	-0.8	213/257/348	135	293	16	10	32%	5%	68	-1.0	205/249/333	128	281	15	11	32%	5%	60	-1.0
✕Drew Jackson 2021 · AAA	28	40→45	43→45	49→55	41	197/267/307	110	285	11	17	34%	7%	63	-1.3	210/296/321	111	330	11	25	36%	10%	78	-0.3	196/292/297	101	315	10	32	37%	10%	69	-0.4
✕Ray Sadler 2009 · AAA	28	40→43	52→55	46→50	40	216/267/383	167	268	20	9	28%	6%	81	-0.1	201/254/335	134	258	16	8	28%	5%	65	-1.2	163/218/267	104	207	14	6	29%	5%	34	-2.5

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps