James Nelson3B
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
Age 28
R/R
6'0" / 180 lbs
AAA
H +4%HR -3%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.3 · 2027
wRC+†72
AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .270 / .340
PA250
HR6
SB9
K%28
BB%7
MLB%10%
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.2 | $0.8M | +$0.0M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | — | — | — |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.2M | — | — | — |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | — | — | — |
| 2033 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $-2M | $-6M | -$4M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | GCL Marlins | 180 | 166 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 43 | 2 | 7 | 3 | .211 | .260 | .271 | .531 | .060 | .272 | 24 | 5 | .232 | 36 | -13 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +5 | -0.7 |
| 2017 | 19 | A | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 432 | 406 | 101 | 23 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 137 | 5 | 6 | 2 | .249 | .284 | .352 | .636 | .103 | .356 | 32 | 3 | .278 | 71 | -14 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +12 | -0.0 |
| 2018 | 20 | A+ | Jupiter Hammerheads | 253 | 236 | 42 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 93 | 4 | 1 | 0 | .178 | .221 | .246 | .467 | .068 | .278 | 37 | 4 | .205 | 15 | -24 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +7 | -1.6 |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ | Jupiter Hammerheads | 470 | 436 | 79 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 125 | 3 | 5 | 3 | .181 | .227 | .241 | .468 | .060 | .239 | 27 | 5 | .210 | 19 | -43 | -0 | +0 | +2 | +13 | -2.9 |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 310 | 283 | 55 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 122 | 6 | 16 | 7 | .194 | .257 | .283 | .540 | .088 | .314 | 39 | 6 | .236 | 39 | -21 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +9 | -1.1 |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 184 | 161 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 72 | 3 | 16 | 7 | .174 | .273 | .242 | .515 | .068 | .295 | 39 | 10 | .234 | 37 | -13 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +5 | -0.7 |
| 2023 | 25 | INTL | Charros de Jalisco | 32 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | .107 | .219 | .214 | .433 | .107 | .136 | 19 | 9 | — | — | — | — | +0 | +0 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | 2 teams | 58 | 55 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 1 | .255 | .293 | .382 | .675 | .127 | .333 | 26 | 5 | .286 | 77 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +2 | 0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | HOU | 192 | 176 | 39 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 53 | 2 | 5 | 1 | .222 | .279 | .364 | .643 | .142 | .281 | 28 | 6 | .278 | 71 | -6 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +5 | 0.0 |
| TOT | 28 | MLB | HOU | 250 | 231 | 53 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 68 | 2 | 9 | 2 | .229 | .282 | .368 | .650 | .139 | .297 | 27 | 6 | .280 | 72 | -8 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +7 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB 20% | HOU | 416 | 380 | 85 | 17 | 2 | 10 | 29 | 102 | 4 | 11 | 3 | .224 | .286 | .358 | .644 | .134 | .278 | 25 | 7 | .288 | 78 | -10 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +12 | 0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB 33% | HOU | 431 | 394 | 88 | 18 | 2 | 10 | 30 | 106 | 4 | 10 | 2 | .223 | .285 | .355 | .640 | .132 | .278 | 25 | 7 | .287 | 78 | -11 | +1 | -2 | +2 | +12 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB 43% | HOU | 434 | 396 | 88 | 18 | 2 | 10 | 31 | 108 | 4 | 8 | 2 | .222 | .285 | .354 | .639 | .131 | .277 | 25 | 7 | .285 | 77 | -12 | +1 | -3 | +2 | +12 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB 57% | HOU | 426 | 389 | 86 | 17 | 2 | 10 | 30 | 108 | 4 | 6 | 1 | .221 | .284 | .352 | .636 | .131 | .276 | 25 | 7 | .282 | 74 | -13 | +1 | -4 | +2 | +12 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB 75% | HOU | 403 | 369 | 80 | 16 | 2 | 9 | 28 | 105 | 3 | 4 | 0 | .217 | .278 | .344 | .622 | .127 | .275 | 26 | 7 | .276 | 69 | -14 | +1 | -4 | +1 | +11 | -0.5 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB 83% | HOU | 362 | 331 | 69 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 98 | 3 | 3 | 0 | .208 | .270 | .320 | .590 | .112 | .273 | 27 | 7 | .270 | 65 | -15 | +1 | -5 | +1 | +10 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 4525 | 4151 | 878 | 176 | 16 | 80 | 281 | 1278 | 48 | 98 | 33 | .212 | .269 | .319 | .589 | .108 | .282 | 28 | 6 | .260 | 57 | -218 | +6 | -19 | +16 | +128 | -8.7 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 596 | 125 | 25 | 2 | 11 | 40 | 184 | 7 | 14 | 5 | .210 | .267 | .314 | .581 | .104 | .281 | 28 | 6 | .260 | 57 | -31 | +1 | -3 | +2 | +18 | -1.3 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | GCL Marlins | 180 | 161 | 45 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 30 | 2 | 7 | 3 | .280 | .345 | .360 | .705 | .081 | .331 | 17 | 8 | .316 | 100 | +0 | +0 | — | — | +5 | 0.5 |
| 2017 | 19 | A | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 432 | 395 | 122 | 31 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 106 | 5 | 6 | 2 | .309 | .359 | .456 | .815 | .147 | .399 | 25 | 6 | .357 | 132 | +15 | +0 | — | — | +12 | 2.9 |
| 2018 | 20 | A+ | Jupiter Hammerheads | 253 | 232 | 49 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 66 | 4 | 1 | 0 | .211 | .265 | .280 | .545 | .069 | .281 | 26 | 5 | .247 | 47 | -15 | +0 | — | — | +7 | -0.8 |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ | Jupiter Hammerheads | 470 | 429 | 98 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 30 | 89 | 3 | 5 | 3 | .228 | .284 | .296 | .580 | .068 | .274 | 19 | 6 | .261 | 58 | -22 | -0 | — | — | +13 | -0.9 |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 310 | 276 | 68 | 13 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 90 | 6 | 16 | 7 | .246 | .322 | .359 | .681 | .112 | .339 | 29 | 8 | .308 | 94 | -2 | +0 | — | — | +9 | 0.7 |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 184 | 149 | 33 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 56 | 3 | 16 | 7 | .221 | .366 | .302 | .668 | .081 | .337 | 30 | 17 | .317 | 101 | +0 | +0 | — | — | +5 | 0.6 |
| 2023 | 25 | INTL | Charros de Jalisco | 32 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | .107 | .219 | .214 | .433 | .107 | .136 | 19 | 9 | .207 | 17 | -3 | -1 | — | — | +1 | -0.3 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| James Nelson (OGILVIE) | 28 | — | — | — | — | .210/.270/.340 | .129 | .274 | 6 | 5 | 28% | 7% | 69 | -0.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Kyle Datres 2022 · A |
26 | 39→43 | 48→50 | 53→55 | 45 | .201/.280/.343 | .142 | .268 | 15 | 18 | 30% | 8% | 74 | -0.1 | .215/.294/.359 | .144 | .298 | 18 | 23 | 32% | 8% | 84 | +0.6 | .206/.288/.349 | .143 | .285 | 19 | 26 | 33% | 8% | 76 | +0.1 |
|
✕Michael Helman 2022 · A |
26 | 38→41 | 48→55 | 51→55 | 45 | .201/.257/.342 | .141 | .241 | 16 | 13 | 25% | 7% | 63 | -0.8 | .220/.280/.374 | .154 | .267 | 19 | 24 | 25% | 7% | 82 | +0.5 | .219/.280/.373 | .154 | .264 | 20 | 28 | 25% | 7% | 78 | +0.1 |
|
✕Aaron Sisk 2007 · AA |
28 | 40 | 50 | 47→45 | 43 | .211/.269/.364 | .152 | .271 | 18 | 10 | 29% | 7% | 74 | -0.1 | .223/.279/.372 | .149 | .284 | 19 | 8 | 28% | 7% | 80 | +0.4 | .227/.285/.382 | .154 | .278 | 22 | 3 | 26% | 6% | 84 | +0.3 |
|
✕Quincy Latimore 2017 · AA |
28 | 41→42 | 48→50 | 46→50 | 41 | .210/.264/.348 | .138 | .277 | 16 | 8 | 30% | 6% | 67 | -0.5 | .214/.263/.345 | .131 | .291 | 16 | 7 | 31% | 6% | 66 | -0.6 | .216/.254/.339 | .124 | .283 | 17 | 6 | 30% | 4% | 57 | -0.8 |
|
✕Steve Moss 2011 · A |
27 | 44→49 | 44→45 | 48→50 | 43 | .217/.275/.333 | .117 | .283 | 11 | 8 | 27% | 6% | 69 | -0.4 | .239/.302/.392 | .153 | .322 | 19 | 10 | 30% | 7% | 95 | +1.4 | .238/.320/.440 | .202 | .286 | 28 | 8 | 26% | 9% | 112 | +0.6 |
|
✕Jeff Nettles 2008 · AA |
29 | 43→41 | 48→55 | 49→40 | 40 | .223/.264/.360 | .138 | .286 | 16 | 6 | 28% | 5% | 70 | -0.3 | .223/.269/.378 | .155 | .254 | 20 | 4 | 21% | 6% | 78 | +0.2 | .216/.263/.374 | .158 | .233 | 23 | 0 | 19% | 5% | 71 | -0.3 |
|
✕Travis Garcia 2011 · AA |
29 | 44 | 46→50 | 48→40 | 37 | .223/.260/.350 | .127 | .301 | 13 | 8 | 30% | 5% | 66 | -0.6 | .246/.287/.427 | .181 | .319 | 24 | 10 | 30% | 5% | 98 | +1.6 | .243/.279/.416 | .173 | .307 | 24 | 5 | 29% | 3% | 90 | +0.4 |
|
✕Chuckie Robinson 2022 · AA |
27 | 40→50 | 45 | 47→45 | 40 | .204/.266/.319 | .115 | .281 | 13 | 8 | 31% | 6% | 61 | -1.0 | .228/.277/.351 | .123 | .290 | 14 | 7 | 26% | 5% | 74 | -0.1 | .227/.276/.326 | .099 | .301 | 12 | 4 | 27% | 5% | 64 | -0.4 |
|
✕Miles Durham 2011 · AA |
28 | 47→49 | 46→50 | 48→50 | 39 | .233/.280/.364 | .132 | .317 | 12 | 10 | 30% | 5% | 78 | +0.2 | .208/.256/.314 | .106 | .309 | 8 | 11 | 33% | 6% | 54 | -1.4 | .189/.232/.282 | .093 | .287 | 5 | 13 | 35% | 5% | 35 | -1.4 |
|
✕Patrick Brady 2016 · AAA |
28 | 43 | 47→50 | 48→45 | 39 | .219/.262/.352 | .132 | .286 | 15 | 12 | 29% | 5% | 67 | -0.5 | .211/.269/.312 | .101 | .308 | 7 | 11 | 31% | 7% | 59 | -1.1 | .196/.263/.290 | .094 | .295 | 4 | 9 | 32% | 8% | 50 | -0.9 |
|
✕Adam Fox 2010 · AAA |
28 | 42→44 | 48→50 | 49→45 | 41 | .219/.267/.353 | .135 | .268 | 16 | 8 | 25% | 5% | 70 | -0.3 | .199/.245/.328 | .129 | .252 | 14 | 9 | 26% | 5% | 54 | -1.4 | .164/.208/.280 | .116 | .206 | 10 | 7 | 26% | 5% | 23 | -1.3 |
|
✕Jack Mayfield 2019 · AAA |
28 | 42→45 | 50→55 | 46→50 | 40 | .219/.260/.369 | .150 | .264 | 18 | 8 | 25% | 5% | 71 | -0.3 | .225/.271/.398 | .173 | .264 | 22 | 8 | 24% | 5% | 84 | +0.6 | .213/.259/.384 | .171 | .243 | 22 | 9 | 23% | 5% | 74 | -0.0 |
|
✕Brian O'Keefe 2021 · AA |
28 | 41→42 | 46→55 | 45→40 | 47 | .209/.282/.338 | .130 | .264 | 14 | 4 | 26% | 8% | 73 | -0.1 | .212/.271/.370 | .158 | .289 | 21 | 5 | 33% | 7% | 76 | +0.1 | .198/.262/.368 | .171 | .244 | 22 | 1 | 29% | 7% | 69 | -0.2 |
|
✕Jerad Head 2009 · A |
26 | 40→45 | 46→55 | 50 | 41 | .205/.267/.340 | .135 | .252 | 13 | 11 | 24% | 5% | 67 | -0.5 | .231/.283/.377 | .146 | .290 | 15 | 8 | 25% | 5% | 84 | +0.6 | .229/.280/.395 | .166 | .277 | 20 | 7 | 25% | 4% | 85 | +0.4 |
|
✕Davis Stoneburner 2012 · AA |
27 | 47→48 | 44→45 | 51→50 | 42 | .230/.284/.355 | .125 | .290 | 11 | 13 | 24% | 5% | 77 | +0.1 | .206/.262/.297 | .091 | .279 | 6 | 15 | 27% | 6% | 53 | -1.5 | .168/.224/.225 | .057 | .241 | 0 | 17 | 28% | 5% | 15 | -2.4 |
|
✕Seth Bynum 2009 · AA |
28 | 43→44 | 46→55 | 43→50 | 40 | .216/.267/.343 | .127 | .292 | 14 | 7 | 30% | 6% | 67 | -0.5 | .218/.262/.367 | .149 | .296 | 18 | 9 | 32% | 5% | 72 | -0.2 | .211/.255/.357 | .146 | .285 | 18 | 11 | 32% | 5% | 63 | -0.5 |
|
✕Brian Sellier 2006 · A |
28 | 45→44 | 47→55 | 51→50 | 45 | .225/.265/.367 | .142 | .254 | 14 | 10 | 18% | 5% | 72 | -0.2 | .224/.272/.362 | .138 | .250 | 14 | 9 | 17% | 6% | 74 | -0.1 | .220/.270/.362 | .142 | .236 | 15 | 6 | 15% | 6% | 72 | -0.2 |
|
✕Stevie Berman 2022 · AA |
27 | 42 | 43→50 | 49→40 | 48 | .208/.284/.316 | .108 | .260 | 11 | 7 | 24% | 8% | 69 | -0.4 | .206/.292/.328 | .122 | .270 | 13 | 5 | 27% | 9% | 76 | +0.0 | .190/.289/.313 | .123 | .250 | 14 | 1 | 28% | 10% | 69 | -0.1 |
|
✕Lloyd Turner 2007 · AA |
27 | 41→47 | 45 | 50 | 44 | .209/.270/.332 | .123 | .259 | 13 | 14 | 25% | 7% | 66 | -0.6 | .205/.264/.325 | .120 | .260 | 12 | 12 | 25% | 6% | 61 | -1.0 | .185/.242/.294 | .109 | .231 | 11 | 12 | 25% | 5% | 42 | -1.0 |
|
✕Camden Duzenack 2023 · AAA |
28 | 39→37 | 49→50 | 51→50 | 36 | .205/.244/.348 | .143 | .271 | 17 | 12 | 31% | 4% | 59 | -1.1 | .225/.280/.351 | .126 | .287 | 13 | 10 | 26% | 6% | 75 | -0.0 | .235/.302/.339 | .104 | .296 | 10 | 6 | 23% | 6% | 79 | +0.1 |