James Nelson — OGILVIE

James Nelson3B Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 28 R/R 6'0" / 180 lbs AAA HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION207 act + 138 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†66

AVG/OBP/SLG.211 / .263 / .320

PA138

HR3

SB5

K%30

BB%5

BABIP286

ISO109

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	18	ROK	GCL Marlins	—	180	166	35	7	0	1	9	43	2	7	3	211	260	271	531	60	272	24	5	232	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	18	ROK	GCL Marlins	—	180	161	45	10	0	1	14	30	2	7	3	280	345	360	705	81	331	17	8	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	A	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	432	404	103	22	2	4	17	138	5	6	2	255	293	349	642	94	369	32	4	281	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	A	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	432	395	122	31	3	7	26	106	5	6	2	309	359	456	815	147	399	25	6	357	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A+	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	253	235	42	11	0	2	10	92	4	1	0	179	225	251	476	72	278	36	4	213	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A+	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	253	232	49	10	0	2	13	66	4	1	0	211	265	280	545	69	281	26	5	247	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A+	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	470	436	79	13	1	5	23	125	3	5	3	181	227	250	477	69	236	27	5	214	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A+	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	470	429	98	13	2	4	30	89	3	5	3	228	284	296	580	68	274	19	6	261	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	310	283	54	10	0	4	18	122	6	16	7	191	254	269	523	78	312	39	6	235	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	310	276	68	13	0	6	25	90	6	16	7	246	322	359	681	112	339	29	8	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	184	158	26	6	0	1	22	73	3	16	7	165	279	222	500	57	294	40	12	242	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	184	149	33	6	0	2	31	56	3	16	7	221	366	302	668	81	337	30	17	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	INTL	Charros de Jalisco	—	32	28	3	1	1	0	3	6	1	0	2	107	219	214	433	107	136	19	9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	INTL	Charros de Jalisco	—	32	28	3	1	1	0	3	6	1	0	2	107	219	214	433	107	136	19	9	207	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	28	AAA	HOU	—	207	196	43	7	0	5	7	72	3	11	2	219	257	332	589	112	317	35	3	257	55	-11	+1	+0	+1	+6	-0.3
YTD	28	AAA	HOU	—	207	193	52	9	0	7	10	56	3	11	2	269	316	425	740	155	344	27	5	328	109	+2	+1	+0	+1	+6	1.0
ROS	28	AAA	HOU	10%	138	128	27	5	0	3	7	42	2	5	1	211	263	320	583	109	288	30	5	272	66	-5	+1	+0	+0	+4	-0.0
ROS	28	MLB	HOU	10%	14	13	3	1	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	231	286	308	593	77	291	29	7	266	62	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	28	AAA	HOU	—	221	209	46	8	0	5	8	76	3	11	2	220	259	330	589	110	318	34	4	257	55	-11	+1	+0	+1	+6	-0.3
TOT	28	AAA	HOU	—	345	324	70	12	0	8	14	114	5	16	3	216	259	327	587	111	304	33	4	263	59	-16	+2	+0	+1	+10	-0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	29	MLB	HOU	27%	416	384	83	15	1	10	24	123	5	12	3	216	271	339	610	122	288	30	6	275	69	-15	+1	-1	+1	+12	-0.2
2028	30	MLB	HOU	37%	431	397	87	16	1	11	26	127	5	11	2	219	276	348	623	128	287	29	6	276	69	-15	+1	-2	+2	+12	-0.2
2027	29	MLB	HOU	27%	114	105	23	4	0	3	7	34	1	3	1	219	274	343	617	124	291	30	6	270	65	-5	+0	-0	+0	+3	-0.1
2028	30	MLB	HOU	37%	161	148	32	6	0	4	10	47	2	4	1	216	275	338	613	122	290	29	6	271	65	-6	+0	-1	+1	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	289	266	58	11	0	7	18	85	3	7	2	218	275	338	614	120	290	29	6	270	65	-11	+1	-1	+1	+8	-0.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	598	131	25	0	16	40	191	7	16	4	219	276	341	617	122	291	29	6	270	65	-26	+2	-3	+2	+18	-0.6
Career	—			—	2846	2619	539	106	6	41	159	891	36	79	30	206	261	298	559	92	290	31	6	248	48	-167	+4	-3	+10	+81	-7.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	598	122	24	1	9	36	203	8	18	7	204	258	293	551	89	288	31	6	248	48	-38	+1	-1	+2	+18	-1.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	18	ROK	GCL Marlins	—	180	161	45	10	0	1	14	30	2	7	3	280	345	360	705	81	331	17	8	316	100	+0	+0	—	—	+5	0.5
2017	19	A	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	432	395	122	31	3	7	26	106	5	6	2	309	359	456	815	147	399	25	6	357	132	+15	+0	—	—	+12	2.9
2018	20	A+	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	253	232	49	10	0	2	13	66	4	1	0	211	265	280	545	69	281	26	5	247	47	-15	+0	—	—	+7	-0.8
2019	21	A+	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	470	429	98	13	2	4	30	89	3	5	3	228	284	296	580	68	274	19	6	261	58	-22	-0	—	—	+13	-0.9
2021	23	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	310	276	68	13	0	6	25	90	6	16	7	246	322	359	681	112	339	29	8	308	94	-2	+0	—	—	+9	0.7
2022	24	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	184	149	33	6	0	2	31	56	3	16	7	221	366	302	668	81	337	30	17	317	101	+0	+0	—	—	+5	0.6
2023	25	INTL	Charros de Jalisco	—	32	28	3	1	1	0	3	6	1	0	2	107	219	214	433	107	136	19	9	207	17	-3	-1	—	—	+1	-0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	9	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
	/162	664	10	21	239	286	365	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	300	7	8	218	271	345	+1	+0	-0.1	-0.0
	/162	664	16	18	218	271	345	+2.4	+1.1	-0.1	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
James Nelson (OGILVIE)	28	—	—	—	—	216/259/327	111	304	8	16	33%	4%	59	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Aaron Sisk 2007 · AA	28	39	50	48→45	42	207/264/358	151	266	19	10	30%	7%	70	-0.3	224/280/372	148	286	19	8	28%	7%	81	+0.4	227/285/382	154	278	22	3	26%	6%	84	+0.3
✕Kyle Datres 2022 · A	26	39→40	45→50	54→55	44	194/276/317	123	270	12	18	31%	8%	66	-0.6	209/287/354	145	287	18	23	32%	8%	79	+0.3	198/279/346	148	268	20	26	32%	8%	71	-0.1
✕Michael Helman 2022 · A	26	39→41	51→55	52→55	44	205/262/364	158	247	18	14	26%	7%	71	-0.3	222/281/382	160	270	20	24	25%	7%	84	+0.6	219/280/378	159	264	21	28	25%	7%	79	+0.2
✕Steve Moss 2011 · A	27	44→49	44→45	48→50	42	215/273/331	116	287	11	8	28%	6%	67	-0.5	241/302/389	148	330	18	11	31%	7%	95	+1.4	240/320/442	202	294	28	8	27%	9%	113	+0.7
✕Quincy Latimore 2016 · AA	27	42→41	48→50	47→50	40	215/263/356	141	280	15	10	29%	6%	69	-0.4	203/251/329	126	276	15	7	31%	6%	57	-1.2	189/238/303	114	257	15	4	32%	5%	40	-1.7
✕Adam Fox 2010 · AAA	28	43→44	49→50	49→45	41	221/269/362	141	271	18	9	26%	5%	73	-0.1	200/245/332	132	253	14	9	27%	5%	55	-1.4	165/207/286	121	206	11	7	26%	5%	24	-1.2
✕Jeff Nettles 2008 · AA	29	44→40	48→55	49→40	40	225/265/365	140	288	16	6	28%	5%	72	-0.2	223/269/381	158	253	21	4	21%	6%	79	+0.3	213/260/375	162	228	23	0	19%	5%	70	-0.3
✕Lloyd Turner 2007 · AA	27	41→47	45	50	44	209/270/334	125	258	13	13	24%	6%	66	-0.6	207/265/327	120	263	12	12	25%	6%	63	-0.9	185/242/294	109	231	11	12	25%	5%	42	-1.0
✕Camden Duzenack 2023 · AAA	28	38→37	50	51→50	36	205/243/354	149	265	18	13	31%	4%	60	-1.0	223/281/343	120	285	12	10	25%	6%	73	-0.1	228/298/319	92	290	8	6	23%	7%	72	-0.1
✕Luis Aviles Jr. 2022 · AA	27	40	46→50	53→55	38	205/250/330	125	281	14	20	32%	5%	57	-1.2	207/249/345	138	287	15	20	32%	5%	60	-1.0	199/240/333	135	275	14	23	33%	4%	50	-1.2
✕Cody Strait 2010 · AA	27	45→48	45→55	51→55	40	223/267/349	126	289	12	16	27%	5%	68	-0.5	214/264/315	101	290	7	16	27%	6%	58	-1.2	168/218/245	77	239	0	24	28%	4%	17	-1.0
✕Myles Schroder 2016 · AA	28	45→46	43→45	53→50	37	222/263/333	111	286	11	14	26%	4%	63	-0.9	217/263/324	107	282	10	9	26%	4%	60	-1.0	212/260/321	110	278	10	7	27%	4%	56	-0.8
✕Patrick Brady 2016 · AAA	28	43	45	49→45	38	217/257/340	123	290	13	13	30%	5%	62	-0.9	216/275/318	102	315	7	11	31%	7%	63	-0.8	204/271/300	96	306	4	9	32%	8%	55	-0.7
✕Travis Garcia 2011 · AA	29	45	45→50	48→40	37	223/260/348	126	301	13	8	30%	5%	66	-0.6	245/287/431	186	320	25	10	31%	5%	99	+1.7	241/275/423	182	301	26	5	29%	3%	91	+0.4
✕Brian Sellier 2006 · A	28	45→44	47→55	51→50	45	225/264/369	144	253	14	10	18%	5%	72	-0.2	224/272/361	137	250	14	9	17%	6%	74	-0.1	219/269/362	143	234	16	6	15%	6%	71	-0.2
✕Adam Buschini 2014 · AA	27	43→38	49→45	50	41	225/262/365	140	262	18	16	22%	4%	71	-0.3	213/259/330	117	273	14	13	26%	6%	60	-1.0	194/242/294	99	251	13	12	28%	6%	40	-1.6
✕Derrick Mitchell 2014 · AAA	27	40→47	47→50	48→55	40	208/254/341	133	266	15	15	28%	6%	62	-0.9	211/273/341	130	269	14	13	26%	8%	69	-0.4	177/266/287	110	208	14	12	22%	10%	56	-0.4
✕Daniel Amaral 2023 · AA	26	41	47→40	48→55	41	209/268/345	136	287	15	14	32%	7%	69	-0.4	232/305/339	107	304	9	27	25%	8%	82	+0.5	243/325/332	89	317	5	48	23%	9%	86	+0.3
✕Davis Stoneburner 2012 · AA	27	47→49	44→45	52→50	41	232/285/355	123	296	11	14	25%	5%	78	+0.2	202/259/290	88	277	5	15	27%	6%	50	-1.8	158/216/212	54	229	0	17	29%	5%	8	-2.7
✕Smaily Borges 2011 · A	27	41	43→45	43→50	39	205/249/315	110	260	10	8	25%	4%	52	-1.6	205/251/311	106	278	10	7	29%	5%	52	-1.6	182/219/283	101	238	12	2	29%	3%	29	-0.8