Jhoan Duran

P Philadelphia Phillies

Age 29 RHP 6'5" / 230 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.6 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MANArb-3FA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	60	56	3.83	2.19	29.8%	5.5%	1.6	K 28.9% · BB 5.7% · FIP 2.34
2025	27	MLBPHI	72	70	2.06	2.01	27.9%	5.2%	2.1
2026	28	MLBPHI	61	59	1.82	1.16	35.6%	3.8%	2.4
2027PROJ	29	MLBPHI	58	61	2.44	2.09	34.4%	4.4%	2.0
2028PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBPHI	51	54	2.43	2.38	33.7%	4.7%	1.6
2029PROJ95% MLB	31	MLBPHI	49	51	2.55	2.62	32.9%	5.0%	1.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 6.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 4.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service5.000First FA2028

2027Arb-3$12M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

K%90

xwOBA vs90

Form1.50 ERA (proj 2.44) · K 32.6% (proj 34.4%) · BB 4.2% (proj 4.4%) · last 90d · 24 IP through Oct 27

CompsLucas Erceg (age 29) · Nick Anderson (age 29) · J.J. Putz (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 6355vR 47

ERA2.44

FIP2.09

K%34.4%

BB%4.4%

K-BB%30.0%

Proj IP61

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL5555

CMD6565

K†8080

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p90100.5

Whiff%

p9035.7%

p9035.6%

xwOBA vs

p900.222

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2022

Service 5.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-3	$12M	+2.0	$16M	+$4M
Totals		$12M		$16M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	17	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs	12	12	64	268	44	22	1	100%	5.3	11.2%	10.3%	0.9%	0.5%	3.25	3.74	—
2015	17	ROK RAW	DSL D-backs	12	12	64	268	44	22	1	100%	5.3	16.4%	8.2%	8.2%	0.4%	3.25	2.96	—
2016	18	ROK MLE	Missoula Osprey	7	7	33	148	22	10	2	100%	4.7	10.1%	8.4%	1.7%	1.9%	4.96	4.35	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	Missoula Osprey	7	7	33	148	22	10	2	100%	4.7	14.9%	6.8%	8.1%	1.4%	4.96	3.47	—
2017	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	3	3	11	59	13	4	0	100%	3.8	15.0%	8.5%	6.5%	0.0%	7.15	2.91	—
2017	19	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	3	3	11	59	13	4	0	100%	3.8	22.0%	6.8%	15.3%	0.0%	7.15	1.86	—
2018	20	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	21	21	101	425	115	38	8	100%	4.8	20.0%	10.6%	9.5%	2.1%	3.75	3.90	—
2018	20	A RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	21	21	101	425	115	38	8	100%	4.8	27.1%	8.9%	18.1%	1.9%	3.75	2.98	—
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	115	471	136	40	7	96%	5.0	22.6%	9.7%	12.9%	1.5%	3.76	3.23	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	115	471	136	40	7	96%	5.0	28.9%	8.5%	20.4%	1.5%	3.76	2.57	—
2021	23	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	5	4	16	75	22	13	1	80%	3.2	25.8%	18.2%	7.6%	1.3%	5.06	3.94	—
2021	23	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	5	4	16	75	22	13	1	80%	3.2	29.3%	17.3%	12.0%	1.3%	5.06	3.60	—
2022	24	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	57	0	68	266	89	13	6	0%	1.2	33.5%	4.9%	28.6%	2.2%	1.86	2.13	+2.0
2022	24	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	57	0	68	266	89	13	6	0%	1.2	33.5%	4.9%	28.6%	2.3%	1.86	2.20	+1.9
2023	25	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	59	0	62	255	84	20	6	0%	1.1	32.9%	7.8%	25.1%	2.3%	2.45	2.60	+1.5
2023	25	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	59	0	62	255	84	20	6	0%	1.1	32.9%	7.8%	25.1%	2.4%	2.45	2.62	+1.4
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	0	56	238	71	13	4	0%	0.9	28.9%	5.7%	23.2%	1.7%	3.83	2.34	+1.5
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	0	56	238	71	13	4	0%	0.9	28.9%	5.7%	23.2%	1.7%	3.83	2.34	+1.5
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	60	0	56	238	71	13	4	0%	0.9	29.8%	5.5%	24.4%	1.7%	3.83	2.19	+1.6
2025	27	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	72	0	70	287	80	15	3	0%	1.0	27.9%	5.2%	22.6%	1.0%	2.06	1.94	+2.2
2025	27	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	72	0	70	287	80	15	3	0%	1.0	27.9%	5.2%	22.6%	1.0%	2.06	1.94	+2.2
2025	27	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	72	0	70	287	80	15	3	0%	1.0	27.9%	5.2%	22.6%	1.0%	2.06	2.01	+2.1
2026	28	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	61	0	59	236	84	9	2	0%	1.0	35.6%	3.8%	31.8%	0.8%	1.82	1.01	+2.5
2026	28	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	61	0	59	236	84	9	2	0%	1.0	35.6%	3.8%	31.8%	0.8%	1.82	1.01	+2.5
2026	28	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	61	0	59	236	84	9	2	0%	1.0	35.6%	3.8%	31.8%	0.8%	1.82	1.16	+2.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			307	0	314	1272	403	70	21	0%	1.0	31.7%	5.5%	26.2%	1.7%	2.32	2.07	+9.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	PHI	58	0	61	258	89	11	4	0%	1.1	34.4%	4.4%	30.0%	1.7%	2.44	2.09	+2.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	PHI	54	0	57	242	81	11	5	0%	1.1	33.7%	4.7%	29.0%	1.9%	2.35	2.30	+1.7
2029	31	MLB MLE	PHI	51	0	53	225	74	11	5	0%	1.0	32.9%	5.0%	27.9%	2.2%	2.46	2.53	+1.4
2028	30	MLB CTX	PHI	51	0	54	228	77	11	5	0%	1.1	33.7%	4.7%	29.0%	2.1%	2.43	2.38	+1.6
2029	31	MLB CTX	PHI	49	0	51	215	71	11	5	0%	1.0	32.9%	5.0%	27.9%	2.3%	2.55	2.62	+1.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		407	0	419	1715	551	91	31	0%	1.0	32.1%	5.3%	26.8%	1.8%	2.36	2.05	+12.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		194	0	200	819	263	43	15	0%	1.0	32.1%	5.3%	26.8%	1.8%	2.36	2.05	+6.0
Career	—	MLE		380	69	655	2728	670	220	42	18%	1.7	24.6%	8.1%	16.5%	1.5%	3.19	2.89	+12.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		116	21	200	833	205	67	13	18%	1.7	24.6%	8.1%	16.5%	1.5%	3.19	2.89	+5.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2021 AAASt. Paul Saints · 16 IPFIP 3.55 → 3.94 (+0.39)K% 29.3% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.33%	—	×0.880	25.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.33%	—	×1.050	18.20%
HR / BF /BF	1.33%	÷1.121	×1.100	1.31%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 124).

Result: FIP 3.55 → 3.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Fort Myers Miracle · 78 IPFIP 2.68 → 3.37 (+0.69)K% 29.9% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.87%	—	×0.770	23.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.75%	—	×1.150	11.21%
HR / BF /BF	1.57%	÷1.362	×1.250	1.44%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 172).

Result: FIP 2.68 → 3.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 37 IPFIP 2.30 → 2.95 (+0.65)K% 26.8% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.80%	—	×0.810	21.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.88%	—	×1.100	6.47%
HR / BF /BF	1.31%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.57%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.30 → 2.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ACedar Rapids Kernels · 101 IPFIP 2.98 → 3.90 (+0.92)K% 27.1% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.06%	—	×0.740	20.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.94%	—	×1.180	10.55%
HR / BF /BF	1.88%	÷1.163	×1.300	2.10%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 133).

Result: FIP 2.98 → 3.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 ROKACL D-backs · 11 IPFIP 2.10 → 2.91 (+0.81)K% 22.0% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.03%	—	×0.680	14.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.78%	—	×1.250	8.47%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.10 → 2.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 ROKMissoula Osprey · 33 IPFIP 3.44 → 4.35 (+0.91)K% 14.9% → 10.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.86%	—	×0.680	10.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.76%	—	×1.250	8.45%
HR / BF /BF	1.35%	÷1.000	×1.400	1.89%

Result: FIP 3.44 → 4.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 ROKDSL D-backs · 64 IPFIP 2.96 → 3.74 (+0.79)K% 16.4% → 11.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.42%	—	×0.680	11.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.21%	—	×1.250	10.26%
HR / BF /BF	0.37%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.52%

Result: FIP 2.96 → 3.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jhoan Duran (OGILVIE)	—	—	2.09	34.4%	4.4%	1.7%	—	2.41	33.3%	28.5%	110	+0.32	—	—	—
Lucas Erceg R 2024 · 2.10 FIP	29	SU	2.10	28.5%	5.5%	1.3%	.280	3.90	17.4%	8.2%	110	+1.80	2.10	351	67
Nick Anderson R 2019 · 1.96 FIP	29	SU	1.96	41.7%	5.3%	3.1%	.333	3.75	30.2%	25.3%	32	+1.79	0.94	411	62
J.J. Putz R 2006 · 1.43 FIP	29	SU	1.43	34.3%	4.0%	1.3%	.301	2.97	26.5%	18.0%	147	+1.54	1.43	563	62
Josh Fields R 2015 · 1.90 FIP	29	SU	1.90	32.1%	7.7%	1.0%	.298	3.23	25.2%	19.0%	162	+1.33	1.80	330	61
Drew Rasmussen R 2024 · 1.21 FIP	29	SW	1.21	30.2%	5.2%	0.0%	.333	3.16	24.0%	18.5%	322	+1.95	1.21	694	58
Héctor Neris R 2018 · 3.01 FIP	29	SU	3.01	37.3%	8.1%	3.7%	.321	3.29	31.2%	22.1%	164	+0.28	2.03	682	57
David Carpenter R 2014 · 2.84 FIP	29	SU	2.84	25.9%	6.2%	2.1%	.327	4.98	15.8%	5.8%	50	+2.14	2.66	275	55
Ryan Pressly R 2018 · 2.25 FIP	29	SU	2.25	34.6%	7.2%	2.1%	.311	2.23	33.0%	27.6%	139	-0.02	1.88	691	54
Joe Nathan R 2004 · 1.93 FIP	29	SU	1.93	31.3%	7.0%	1.1%	.262	1.93	32.5%	26.4%	210	+0.00	1.25	929	54
Kiko Calero R 2004 · 3.05 FIP	29	SU	3.05	28.0%	5.4%	3.0%	.206	3.33	23.1%	14.6%	154	+0.28	2.27	298	54
Jumbo Diaz R 2014 · 2.87 FIP	30	SU	2.87	26.1%	7.0%	2.0%	.283	3.64	23.0%	15.0%	186	+0.77	2.80	319	53
Pedro Strop R 2014 · 2.25 FIP	29	SU	2.25	29.1%	9.0%	0.9%	.255	2.79	29.2%	20.4%	176	+0.54	2.25	494	53
Corey Knebel R 2021 · 2.64 FIP	29	SU	2.64	29.7%	7.9%	1.9%	.230	4.22	21.2%	8.6%	55	+1.58	2.11	323	53
Sergio Santos R 2011 · 2.53 FIP	28	SU	2.53	35.4%	9.2%	2.3%	.254	3.13	29.4%	21.4%	47	+0.60	1.36	178	53
Akinori Otsuka R 2004 · 2.61 FIP	32	SU	2.61	27.9%	6.4%	1.9%	.251	2.78	20.3%	13.4%	155	+0.17	2.39	232	53
Jon Edwards R 2018 · 2.40 FIP	30	SU	2.40	30.3%	7.7%	1.6%	.304	4.43	25.1%	13.5%	49	+2.03	2.40	132	52
Brad Boxberger R 2017 · 3.01 FIP	29	SU	3.01	33.1%	6.6%	3.4%	.275	4.40	26.6%	14.5%	98	+1.39	2.63	478	52
Robert Suarez R 2022 · 2.92 FIP	31	SU	2.92	31.9%	11.0%	2.0%	.238	3.15	24.9%	19.3%	162	+0.23	1.95	291	52
Hunter Harvey R 2024 · 3.14 FIP	29	SU	3.14	25.1%	6.4%	2.5%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	2.00	269	52
Tommy Kahnle R 2019 · 2.99 FIP	29	SU	2.99	35.5%	8.1%	3.4%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	1.53	527	51

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	61	32.4%	5.9%	0.68	2.36
Ken Giles ('22)	1.8	59	33.3%	7.8%	0.71	2.71
Felipe Vázquez ('19)	1.7	66	29.8%	7.5%	0.60	2.61
Jonathan Papelbon ('16)	3.6	60	27.5%	6.3%	0.71	2.44
Tom Henke ('82-'95, 25 WAR*)	3.9	66	35.9%*	7.7%*	0.93*	2.72*
Bryan Harvey ('87-'94, 12 WAR*)	1.9	64	37.8%*	8.9%*	0.94*	2.59*
Jeff Montgomery ('87-'99, 19 WAR*)	4.3	72	26.2%*	7.6%*	1.01*	3.16*