Jhoan Duran — OGILVIE

Jhoan Duran P Philadelphia Phillies

Age 28 RHP 6'5" / 230 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.5 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION54 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 6254vR 46

ERA2.16

FIP1.92

K%33.1%

BB%4.7%

K-BB%28.3%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL5555

CMD6565

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p90100.4

Whiff%

p9035.2%

p9034.4%

xwOBA vs

p900.227

FB+1.4 (75%)

SL+0.6 (11%)

SI (1%)

CU (10%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.6M	+0.2	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2027	Arb-3	$8M	+1.6	$12M	+$5M
Totals		$8M		$13M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	17	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs	12	12	64	268	44	22	1	100%	5.3	11.2%	10.3%	0.9%	0.5%	3.25	3.74	—
2015	17	ROK RAW	DSL D-backs	12	12	64	268	44	22	1	100%	5.3	16.4%	8.2%	8.2%	0.4%	3.25	2.96	—
2016	18	ROK MLE	Missoula Osprey	7	7	33	148	22	10	2	100%	4.7	10.1%	8.4%	1.7%	1.9%	4.96	4.35	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	Missoula Osprey	7	7	33	148	22	10	2	100%	4.7	14.9%	6.8%	8.1%	1.4%	4.96	3.47	—
2017	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	3	3	11	59	13	4	0	100%	3.8	15.0%	8.5%	6.5%	0.0%	7.15	2.91	—
2017	19	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	3	3	11	59	13	4	0	100%	3.8	22.0%	6.8%	15.3%	0.0%	7.15	1.86	—
2018	20	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	21	21	101	425	115	38	8	100%	4.8	20.0%	10.6%	9.5%	2.1%	3.75	3.90	—
2018	20	A RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	21	21	101	425	115	38	8	100%	4.8	27.1%	8.9%	18.1%	1.9%	3.75	2.98	—
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	115	471	136	40	7	96%	5.0	22.6%	9.7%	12.9%	1.5%	3.76	3.23	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	115	471	136	40	7	96%	5.0	28.9%	8.5%	20.4%	1.5%	3.76	2.57	—
2021	23	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	5	4	16	75	22	13	1	80%	3.2	25.8%	18.2%	7.6%	1.3%	5.06	3.94	—
2021	23	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	5	4	16	75	22	13	1	80%	3.2	29.3%	17.3%	12.0%	1.3%	5.06	3.60	—
2022	24	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	57	0	68	266	89	13	6	0%	1.2	33.5%	4.9%	28.6%	2.2%	1.86	2.13	+2.0
2022	24	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	57	0	68	266	89	13	6	0%	1.2	33.5%	4.9%	28.6%	2.3%	1.86	2.20	+1.9
2023	25	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	59	0	62	255	84	20	6	0%	1.1	32.9%	7.8%	25.1%	2.3%	2.45	2.60	+1.5
2023	25	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	59	0	62	255	84	20	6	0%	1.1	32.9%	7.8%	25.1%	2.3%	2.45	2.60	+1.5
2023	25	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	59	0	62	255	84	20	6	0%	1.1	32.9%	7.8%	25.1%	2.4%	2.45	2.62	+1.4
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	0	56	238	71	13	4	0%	0.9	28.9%	5.7%	23.2%	1.7%	3.83	2.34	+1.5
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	0	56	238	71	13	4	0%	0.9	28.9%	5.7%	23.2%	1.7%	3.83	2.34	+1.5
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	60	0	56	238	71	13	4	0%	0.9	29.8%	5.5%	24.4%	1.7%	3.83	2.19	+1.6
2025	27	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	72	0	70	287	80	15	3	0%	1.0	27.9%	5.2%	22.6%	1.0%	2.06	1.94	+2.2
2025	27	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	72	0	70	287	80	15	3	0%	1.0	27.9%	5.2%	22.6%	1.0%	2.06	1.94	+2.2
2025	27	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	72	0	70	287	80	15	3	0%	1.0	27.9%	5.2%	22.6%	1.0%	2.06	2.01	+2.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			302	0	309	1254	394	69	21	0%	1.0	31.4%	5.5%	25.9%	1.7%	2.33	2.10	+9.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	56	0	54	218	75	8	2	0%	1.0	34.4%	3.7%	30.7%	0.9%	1.82	1.13	+2.2
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	56	0	54	218	75	8	2	0%	1.0	34.4%	3.7%	30.7%	0.9%	1.82	1.13	+2.2
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	MLB RAW	PHI	56	0	54	218	75	8	2	0%	1.0	34.4%	3.7%	30.7%	0.9%	1.82	1.16	+2.2
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	PHI	56	0	54	218	75	8	2	0%	1.0	34.4%	3.7%	30.7%	0.9%	1.82	1.16	+2.2
ROS	28	MLB MLE	PHI	5	0	5	23	8	1	0	0%	1.1	33.1%	4.7%	28.3%	1.8%	2.16	1.92	+0.2
ROS	28	MLB CTX	PHI	5	0	5	21	7	1	0	0%	1.0	33.1%	4.7%	28.3%	2.0%	2.24	2.00	+0.2
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	PHI	—	—	60	241	83	9	2	—	—	34.3%	3.8%	30.5%	1.0%	1.85	1.20	+2.7
FULL	28	MLB A+C	PHI	—	—	60	252	83	9	2	—	—	32.7%	3.6%	29.1%	1.0%	1.86	1.33	+2.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	PHI	58	0	61	258	83	13	5	0%	1.1	32.1%	5.0%	27.2%	1.8%	2.41	2.38	+1.7
2028	30	MLB MLE	PHI	55	0	57	242	76	13	5	0%	1.0	31.4%	5.3%	26.2%	2.0%	2.52	2.59	+1.4
2027	29	MLB CTX	PHI	55	0	58	245	79	12	5	0%	1.1	32.1%	5.0%	27.2%	1.9%	2.48	2.45	+1.6
2028	30	MLB CTX	PHI	51	0	54	228	72	12	5	0%	1.1	31.4%	5.3%	26.2%	2.1%	2.60	2.67	+1.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		414	0	426	1751	552	94	31	0%	1.0	31.5%	5.4%	26.2%	1.8%	2.39	2.09	+12.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		194	0	200	821	259	44	15	0%	1.0	31.5%	5.4%	26.2%	1.8%	2.39	2.09	+5.9
Career	—	MLE		375	69	650	2710	661	219	42	18%	1.7	24.4%	8.1%	16.3%	1.5%	3.20	2.91	+12.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		115	21	200	834	204	67	13	18%	1.7	24.4%	8.1%	16.3%	1.5%	3.20	2.91	+5.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jhoan Duran (OGILVIE)	—	—	2.58	31.5%	5.4%	2.0%	—	2.48	31.8%	26.7%	118	-0.10	—	—	—
Ken Giles R 2019 · 2.02 FIP	28	SU	2.02	39.9%	7.7%	2.4%	.298	—	—	—	—	—	1.96	368	70
Dellin Betances R 2016 · 1.59 FIP	28	SU	1.59	42.1%	9.4%	1.6%	.350	2.26	40.4%	27.8%	126	+0.67	1.59	308	68
Chad Green R 2019 · 2.85 FIP	28	SW	2.85	33.2%	6.4%	3.2%	.333	3.35	30.8%	25.4%	124	+0.50	1.77	763	68
Trevor Rosenthal R 2017 · 2.05 FIP	27	SU	2.05	37.6%	9.9%	1.6%	.330	3.21	33.2%	15.9%	39	+1.16	1.86	196	66
Héctor Rondón R 2016 · 3.44 FIP	28	SU	3.44	29.0%	4.0%	4.2%	.270	3.83	24.8%	17.0%	177	+0.39	2.42	318	64
Liam Hendriks R 2017 · 3.30 FIP	28	SU	3.30	28.6%	8.4%	2.8%	.303	1.71	35.2%	30.1%	160	-1.59	0.63	495	64
Félix Bautista R 2023 · 1.50 FIP	28	SU	1.50	46.4%	11.0%	1.7%	.268	3.29	35.2%	19.0%	35	+1.79	1.50	334	61
Richard Rodríguez R 2018 · 2.23 FIP	28	SU	2.23	31.5%	5.7%	1.9%	.294	4.19	22.0%	16.7%	153	+1.96	2.23	545	61
Hunter Harvey R 2023 · 2.97 FIP	28	SU	2.97	28.5%	5.1%	3.0%	.248	3.14	25.1%	18.7%	51	+0.17	2.00	269	61
Mike Broadway R 2015 · 1.74 FIP	28	SU	1.74	27.5%	5.7%	0.4%	.275	4.55	20.4%	10.6%	129	+2.81	1.74	195	60
Cody Allen R 2017 · 3.04 FIP	28	SU	3.04	32.6%	7.4%	3.2%	.300	5.02	27.0%	14.6%	90	+1.98	1.58	295	60
Josh Fields R 2015 · 1.90 FIP	29	SU	1.90	32.1%	7.7%	1.0%	.298	3.23	25.2%	19.0%	162	+1.33	1.90	238	60
Josh Lueke R 2015 · 2.29 FIP	30	SU	2.29	30.0%	4.1%	2.2%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	60
Emilio Pagán R 2019 · 3.17 FIP	28	SU	3.17	36.0%	4.5%	4.6%	.224	4.53	28.1%	20.0%	148	+1.36	2.67	719	59
Nick Anderson R 2018 · 3.60 FIP	28	SU	3.60	31.9%	7.3%	4.1%	.315	1.76	42.3%	37.0%	81	-1.84	0.94	411	59
Will Vest R 2023 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	28.1%	7.8%	3.6%	.281	2.69	23.9%	17.2%	166	-0.99	2.56	448	57
Scott Oberg R 2018 · 2.54 FIP	28	SU	2.54	24.4%	5.0%	1.6%	.278	3.19	26.0%	16.6%	56	+0.65	2.54	302	57
Jumbo Diaz R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	31	SU	3.16	25.2%	6.0%	2.6%	.286	3.65	21.9%	12.2%	152	+0.49	2.80	284	57
Hansel Robles R 2019 · 2.67 FIP	28	SU	2.67	26.5%	5.3%	2.1%	.278	4.57	23.3%	10.8%	128	+1.90	2.67	469	57
Matt Barnes R 2018 · 2.54 FIP	28	SU	2.54	36.2%	11.3%	1.9%	.313	3.21	37.0%	26.1%	142	+0.67	2.54	495	56

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	61	31.7%	5.2%	0.74	2.59
Roberto Osuna ('19)	1.6	62	28.5%	4.5%	0.81	2.75
Seunghwan Oh ('18)	1.0	69	27.7%	5.9%	1.00	2.78
Felipe Vázquez ('19)	1.7	66	29.8%	7.5%	0.60	2.61
Sean Doolittle ('21)	1.2	49	28.7%	6.2%	1.18	3.31
Giovanny Gallegos ('24)	1.5	52	29.4%	6.6%	1.19	3.46
Richard Rodríguez ('21)	1.1	56	25.0%	6.3%	1.21	3.00