Jhoan Duran
P
Philadelphia Phillies
Age 28
RHP
6'5" / 230 lbs
MLB
Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 1.5 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION33 act + 31 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 6253vR 44
ERA1.98
FIP1.75
K%34.9%
BB%5.2%
K-BB%29.8%
ROS IP31
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p90100.2
Whiff%
p9039.6%
K%
p9039.7%
xwOBA vs
p900.229
FB+1.4 (72%)
SL+0.6 (10%)
SI (44%)
CU (10%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 17 | ROK | DSL D-backs | 12 | 12 | 64 | 268 | 44 | 22 | 1 | 100% | 5.3 | 11.2% | 10.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 3.25 | 3.74 | — |
| 2015 | 17 | ROK | DSL D-backs | 12 | 12 | 64 | 268 | 44 | 22 | 1 | 100% | 5.3 | 16.4% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 0.4% | 3.25 | 2.96 | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | Missoula Osprey | 7 | 7 | 33 | 148 | 22 | 10 | 2 | 100% | 4.7 | 10.1% | 8.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 4.96 | 4.35 | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | Missoula Osprey | 7 | 7 | 33 | 148 | 22 | 10 | 2 | 100% | 4.7 | 14.9% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 1.4% | 4.96 | 3.47 | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 3 | 3 | 11 | 59 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 3.8 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 0.0% | 7.15 | 2.91 | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 3 | 3 | 11 | 59 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 3.8 | 22.0% | 6.8% | 15.3% | 0.0% | 7.15 | 1.86 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 21 | 21 | 101 | 425 | 115 | 38 | 8 | 100% | 4.8 | 20.0% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 1.8% | 3.75 | 3.76 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 21 | 21 | 101 | 425 | 115 | 38 | 8 | 100% | 4.8 | 27.1% | 8.9% | 18.1% | 1.9% | 3.75 | 2.98 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 115 | 471 | 136 | 40 | 7 | 96% | 5.0 | 22.6% | 9.7% | 12.9% | 1.3% | 3.76 | 3.12 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 115 | 471 | 136 | 40 | 7 | 96% | 5.0 | 28.9% | 8.5% | 20.4% | 1.5% | 3.76 | 2.57 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 5 | 4 | 16 | 75 | 22 | 13 | 1 | 80% | 3.2 | 25.8% | 18.2% | 7.6% | 1.2% | 5.06 | 3.87 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 5 | 4 | 16 | 75 | 22 | 13 | 1 | 80% | 3.2 | 29.3% | 17.3% | 12.0% | 1.3% | 5.06 | 3.60 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 57 | 0 | 68 | 266 | 89 | 13 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 33.5% | 4.9% | 28.6% | 2.2% | 1.86 | 2.12 | +2.1 |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 57 | 0 | 68 | 266 | 89 | 13 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 33.5% | 4.9% | 28.6% | 2.3% | 1.86 | 2.20 | +2.0 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 59 | 0 | 62 | 255 | 84 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 32.9% | 7.8% | 25.1% | 2.3% | 2.45 | 2.59 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 59 | 0 | 62 | 255 | 84 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 32.9% | 7.8% | 25.1% | 2.4% | 2.45 | 2.62 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 60 | 0 | 56 | 238 | 71 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 28.9% | 5.7% | 23.2% | 1.7% | 3.83 | 2.33 | +1.5 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 60 | 0 | 56 | 238 | 71 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 29.8% | 5.5% | 24.4% | 1.7% | 3.83 | 2.19 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 72 | 0 | 70 | 287 | 80 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.9% | 5.2% | 22.6% | 1.0% | 2.06 | 1.96 | +2.3 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 72 | 0 | 70 | 287 | 80 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.9% | 5.2% | 22.6% | 1.0% | 2.06 | 2.01 | +2.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 34 | 0 | 33 | 126 | 50 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 39.7% | 4.8% | 34.9% | 0.8% | 1.38 | 0.79 | +1.4 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | PHI | 30 | 0 | 31 | 132 | 46 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 34.9% | 5.2% | 29.8% | 1.7% | 1.98 | 1.75 | +1.0 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | PHI | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 46 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 34.9% | 5.2% | 29.8% | 1.8% | 2.00 | 1.77 | +1.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 64 | 258 | 96 | 13 | 3 | — | — | 37.3% | 5.0% | 32.3% | 1.3% | 1.67 | 1.26 | +2.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 64 | 270 | 96 | 13 | 3 | — | — | 35.6% | 4.8% | 30.9% | 1.2% | 1.68 | 1.37 | +2.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 86 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 33.4% | 5.4% | 28.0% | 1.9% | 2.41 | 2.38 | +1.6 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 55 | 0 | 57 | 242 | 79 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.7% | 5.7% | 27.0% | 2.1% | 2.52 | 2.59 | +1.3 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 51 | 0 | 53 | 225 | 72 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.0% | 6.0% | 25.9% | 2.3% | 2.70 | 2.82 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 47 | 0 | 49 | 209 | 65 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.2% | 6.5% | 24.7% | 2.6% | 2.92 | 3.07 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | PHI | 43 | 0 | 45 | 191 | 58 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.3% | 6.9% | 23.4% | 2.8% | 3.18 | 3.35 | +0.6 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 82 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 33.4% | 5.4% | 28.0% | 1.9% | 2.43 | 2.40 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 75 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 32.7% | 5.7% | 27.0% | 2.1% | 2.54 | 2.61 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 69 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.0% | 6.0% | 25.9% | 2.4% | 2.72 | 2.84 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 62 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.2% | 6.5% | 24.7% | 2.6% | 2.94 | 3.09 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | PHI | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 55 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.3% | 6.9% | 23.4% | 2.9% | 3.21 | 3.38 | +0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 551 | 0 | 571 | 2362 | 758 | 138 | 47 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.1% | 5.9% | 26.2% | 2.0% | 2.49 | 2.24 | +21.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 193 | 0 | 200 | 827 | 265 | 48 | 16 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.1% | 5.9% | 26.2% | 2.0% | 2.49 | 2.24 | +7.4 | ||
| Career | — | 353 | 69 | 628 | 2618 | 636 | 217 | 39 | 20% | 1.8 | 24.3% | 8.3% | 16.0% | 1.5% | 3.22 | 2.91 | +18.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 112 | 22 | 200 | 833 | 203 | 69 | 12 | 20% | 1.8 | 24.3% | 8.3% | 16.0% | 1.5% | 3.22 | 2.91 | +5.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jhoan Duran (OGILVIE) | — | — | 2.57 | 31.6% | 5.3% | 2.0% | — | 2.59 | 32.8% | 27.1% | 172 | +0.02 | — | — | — |
| Dellin Betances R 2026 · 1.58 FIP | 28 | SU | 1.58 | 42.1% | 9.4% | 1.6% | .350 | 2.26 | 40.4% | 27.8% | 126 | +0.68 | 1.58 | 308 | 64 |
| Ken Giles R 2026 · 2.02 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.02 | 39.9% | 7.7% | 2.4% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.97 | 368 | 64 |
| Chad Green R 2026 · 2.84 FIP | 28 | SW | 2.84 | 33.2% | 6.4% | 3.1% | .333 | 3.33 | 30.8% | 25.4% | 124 | +0.49 | 1.75 | 763 | 62 |
| Trevor Rosenthal R 2025 · 2.00 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.00 | 37.6% | 9.9% | 1.5% | .330 | 3.28 | 33.2% | 15.9% | 39 | +1.28 | 1.98 | 196 | 62 |
| Héctor Rondón R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.30 | 29.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | .270 | 3.70 | 24.8% | 17.0% | 177 | +0.40 | 2.37 | 318 | 60 |
| Richard Rodríguez R 2026 · 2.16 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.16 | 31.5% | 5.7% | 1.8% | .294 | 4.08 | 22.0% | 16.7% | 153 | +1.92 | 2.16 | 545 | 59 |
| Josh Fields R 2027 · 1.86 FIP | 29 | SU | 1.86 | 32.1% | 7.7% | 0.9% | .298 | 3.39 | 25.2% | 19.0% | 162 | +1.53 | 1.86 | 238 | 59 |
| Félix Bautista R 2026 · 1.43 FIP | 28 | SU | 1.43 | 46.4% | 11.0% | 1.6% | .268 | 3.26 | 35.2% | 19.0% | 35 | +1.83 | 1.43 | 334 | 58 |
| Josh Lueke R 2028 · 2.50 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.50 | 30.0% | 4.1% | 2.6% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 58 |
| Liam Hendriks R 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.23 | 28.6% | 8.4% | 2.7% | .303 | 1.67 | 35.2% | 30.1% | 160 | -1.56 | 0.60 | 495 | 57 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 1.74 FIP | 28 | SU | 1.74 | 27.5% | 5.7% | 0.4% | .275 | 4.47 | 20.4% | 10.6% | 129 | +2.73 | 1.74 | 195 | 57 |
| Ryan Walker R 2026 · 2.05 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.05 | 32.1% | 5.5% | 1.8% | .241 | 3.43 | 20.4% | 13.3% | 88 | +1.38 | 2.05 | 394 | 57 |
| Hunter Harvey R 2026 · 2.97 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.97 | 28.5% | 5.1% | 3.0% | .248 | 3.13 | 25.1% | 18.7% | 51 | +0.16 | 2.00 | 269 | 57 |
| Emilio Pagán R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.24 | 36.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | .224 | 4.70 | 28.1% | 20.0% | 148 | +1.46 | 2.70 | 698 | 55 |
| Cody Allen R 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.05 | 32.6% | 7.4% | 3.2% | .300 | 5.08 | 27.0% | 14.6% | 90 | +2.03 | 1.58 | 295 | 55 |
| Adam Ottavino R 2028 · 2.35 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.35 | 32.7% | 6.5% | 2.1% | .242 | 2.94 | 31.7% | 19.3% | 197 | +0.59 | 1.99 | 488 | 54 |
| Pedro Strop R 2028 · 2.64 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.64 | 30.0% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .211 | 2.84 | 26.9% | 18.5% | 167 | +0.20 | 2.48 | 277 | 54 |
| Wade Davis R 2027 · 2.14 FIP | 29 | SU | 2.14 | 31.1% | 7.6% | 1.3% | .199 | 2.82 | 30.0% | 19.8% | 167 | +0.68 | 2.00 | 320 | 54 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2029 · 3.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.20 | 25.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% | .286 | 3.68 | 21.9% | 12.2% | 152 | +0.48 | 2.82 | 284 | 53 |
| James Hoyt R 2026 · 1.60 FIP | 28 | SU | 1.60 | 27.5% | 4.5% | 0.5% | .348 | 2.77 | 32.0% | 23.9% | 171 | +1.17 | 1.60 | 312 | 53 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 55 | 32.0% | 5.9% | 0.87 | 2.73 |
| Liam Hendriks ('22) | 8 | 57 | 32.7% | 5.7% | 0.85 | 2.94 |
| Ken Giles ('19) | 5 | 60 | 32.6% | 7.6% | 0.75 | 2.89 |
| Roberto Osuna ('19) | 5 | 62 | 28.5% | 4.5% | 0.81 | 2.75 |
| Will Harris ('19) | 5 | 59 | 27.0% | 6.2% | 0.82 | 2.36 |
| Felipe Vázquez ('19) | 5 | 66 | 29.8% | 7.5% | 0.60 | 2.61 |
| Evan Phillips ('24) | 4 | 52 | 29.5% | 7.8% | 0.70 | 2.78 |