Jhoan Duran — OGILVIE

Jhoan Duran P Philadelphia Phillies

+1.8 WAR

Age 28 RHP 6'5" / 230 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.7 · 2026

ERA2.86

FIP3.00

xFIP1.36

SIERA1.07

K%27.6%

BB%6.4%

K-BB%21.3%

IP64

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.7peak

2026

K†7070

FB Velo

p90100.6

Whiff%

p8530.8%

p8127.9%

xwOBA vs

p900.248

FB+1.4 (70%)

SL+0.6 (12%)

SI (44%)

CU (11%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	17	ROK	DSL D-backs	12	12	64	268	44	22	1	11.2%	10.3%	0.5%	3.25	3.74	+0.9
2016	18	ROK	Missoula Osprey	7	7	33	148	22	10	2	10.1%	8.4%	1.9%	4.96	4.35	+0.2
2017	19	ROK	ACL D-backs	3	3	11	59	13	4	0	15.0%	8.5%	0.0%	7.15	2.91	+0.3
2018	20	A	Cedar Rapids Kernels	21	21	101	425	115	38	8	20.0%	10.6%	2.2%	3.75	3.95	+1.5
2019	21	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	23	22	115	471	136	40	7	22.6%	9.7%	1.5%	3.76	3.22	+2.7
2021	23	AAA	St. Paul Saints	5	4	16	75	22	13	1	25.8%	18.2%	1.3%	5.06	3.93	+0.2
2022	24	MLB	Minnesota Twins	57	0	68	266	89	13	6	33.5%	4.9%	2.1%	1.86	2.05	+2.3
2023	25	MLB	Minnesota Twins	59	0	62	255	84	20	6	32.9%	7.8%	2.6%	2.45	2.72	+1.6
2024	26	MLB	Minnesota Twins	60	0	56	238	71	13	4	28.9%	5.7%	1.8%	3.83	2.36	+1.7
2025	27	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	72	0	70	287	80	15	3	27.9%	5.2%	0.9%	2.06	1.93	+2.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	28	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	7	0	7	24	8	0	0	—	—	—	1.35	—	—
ROS	28	MLB	PHI	57	—	57	242	78	15	5	32.5%	6.4%	2.0%	2.70	2.63	+1.5
2026 Total	28	MLB	PHI	—	—	64	266	86	15	5	32.6%	5.8%	1.8%	2.56	2.36	+1.9
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	29	MLB	PHI	11	11	62	264	85	16	5	32.1%	6.0%	1.9%	2.59	2.60	+1.7
2028	30	MLB	PHI	11	11	61	256	81	16	5	31.6%	6.1%	2.0%	2.65	2.69	+1.6
2029	31	MLB	PHI	58	—	58	247	76	15	5	31.0%	6.2%	2.1%	2.73	2.79	+1.4
2030	32	MLB	PHI	56	—	56	237	72	15	5	30.3%	6.4%	2.1%	2.84	2.91	+1.3
2031	33	MLB	PHI	54	—	54	227	67	15	5	29.7%	6.6%	2.2%	2.96	3.03	+1.2
2032	34	MLB	PHI	51	—	51	215	62	15	5	29.0%	6.8%	2.3%	3.09	3.17	+1.0
2033	35	MLB	PHI	48	—	48	203	57	14	5	28.2%	7.0%	2.4%	3.23	3.32	+0.9
2034	36	MLB	PHI	45	—	45	190	52	14	5	27.5%	7.3%	2.6%	3.38	3.49	+0.7
2035	37	MLB	PHI	42	—	42	176	47	13	5	26.7%	7.5%	2.7%	3.55	3.66	+0.6
2036	38	MLB	PHI	38	—	38	162	42	13	5	25.8%	7.8%	2.8%	3.73	3.85	+0.5
2037	39	MLB	PHI	35	—	35	149	37	12	4	25.0%	8.1%	3.0%	3.91	4.04	+0.4
2038	40	MLB	PHI	32	—	32	137	33	12	4	24.1%	8.4%	3.1%	4.10	4.22	+0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			326	69	602	2516	594	211	40	23.6%	8.4%	1.6%	3.30	3.05	+15.4
/ 200 IP	—			108	23	200	835	197	70	13	23.6%	8.4%	1.6%	3.30	3.05	+5.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jhoan Duran (OGILVIE)	—	—	2.63	32.5%	6.4%	2.0%	—	2.69	31.5%	25.4%	182	+0.06	—	—	—
Dellin Betances R 2026 · 1.42 FIP	28	SW	1.42	42.1%	9.4%	1.3%	.350	2.26	40.4%	27.8%	126	+0.84	1.42	308	67
Ken Giles R 2026 · 1.97 FIP	28	SW	1.97	39.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.298	—	—	—	—	—	1.95	368	67
Chad Green R 2026 · 2.92 FIP	28	SW	2.92	33.2%	6.4%	3.3%	.333	3.35	30.8%	25.4%	124	+0.43	1.78	763	65
Liam Hendriks R 2026 · 3.09 FIP	28	SW	3.09	28.6%	8.4%	2.4%	.303	1.71	35.2%	30.1%	160	-1.38	0.60	495	64
Trevor Rosenthal R 2025 · 2.07 FIP	27	SU	2.07	37.6%	9.9%	1.6%	.330	3.08	33.2%	15.9%	39	+1.01	1.64	196	64
Héctor Rondón R 2026 · 3.59 FIP	28	SW	3.59	29.0%	4.0%	4.4%	.270	3.71	24.8%	17.0%	177	+0.12	2.33	318	63
Josh Fields R 2027 · 1.85 FIP	29	SW	1.85	32.1%	7.7%	0.9%	.298	3.33	25.2%	19.0%	162	+1.48	1.85	238	63
Richard Rodríguez R 2026 · 2.19 FIP	28	SW	2.19	31.5%	5.7%	1.9%	.294	4.21	22.0%	16.7%	153	+2.02	2.19	545	62
Nick Anderson R 2026 · 3.55 FIP	28	SW	3.55	31.9%	7.3%	4.0%	.315	1.77	42.3%	37.0%	81	-1.78	0.98	394	62
Félix Bautista R 2026 · 1.45 FIP	28	SW	1.45	46.4%	11.0%	1.6%	.268	3.25	35.2%	19.0%	35	+1.80	1.45	334	61
Mike Broadway R 2026 · 1.74 FIP	28	SW	1.74	27.5%	5.7%	0.4%	.275	4.55	20.4%	10.6%	129	+2.81	1.74	195	61
Hunter Harvey R 2026 · 3.01 FIP	28	SW	3.01	28.5%	5.1%	3.0%	.248	3.09	25.1%	18.7%	51	+0.08	1.98	269	61
Josh Lueke R 2028 · 2.32 FIP	30	SW	2.32	30.0%	4.1%	2.2%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	2.32	107	61
Pedro Strop R 2028 · 2.58 FIP	30	SW	2.58	30.0%	8.5%	1.7%	.211	2.91	26.9%	18.5%	167	+0.33	2.58	277	59
Jumbo Diaz R 2029 · 3.21 FIP	31	SW	3.21	25.2%	6.0%	2.7%	.286	3.66	21.9%	12.2%	152	+0.45	2.80	284	59
Emilio Pagán R 2026 · 3.18 FIP	28	SW	3.18	36.0%	4.5%	4.6%	.224	4.42	28.1%	20.0%	148	+1.24	2.59	682	59
Cody Allen R 2026 · 3.20 FIP	28	SW	3.20	32.6%	7.4%	3.5%	.300	4.96	27.0%	14.6%	90	+1.76	1.58	295	58
Wade Davis R 2027 · 2.12 FIP	29	SW	2.12	31.1%	7.6%	1.2%	.199	2.93	30.0%	19.8%	167	+0.81	2.00	320	58
Dinelson Lamet R 2026 · 1.92 FIP	28	SW	1.92	34.8%	7.5%	1.5%	.228	4.29	25.5%	13.8%	137	+2.37	1.92	778	57
Adam Ottavino R 2028 · 2.61 FIP	30	SU	2.61	32.7%	6.5%	2.6%	.242	3.08	31.7%	19.3%	197	+0.47	2.15	488	56

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-2	$8M	+1.7	$14M	+$6M
2027	Arb-3	$9M	+1.7	$14M	+$5M
Totals		$17M		$28M	+$11M