Luis Duarte

C DSL Twins

Age 18 R/R ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	17	ROKMIN	157	.264/.429/.339	2	2	50	—	.171/.314/.209
2027PROJ0% MLB	18	MLBMIN	267	.221/.304/.292	2	3	73	0.2
2028PROJ34% MLB	19	MLBMIN	75	.225/.310/.306	1	1	78	0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	20	MLBMIN	171	.229/.314/.318	2	2	82	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Z-Con%89

Chase%84

K%82

Whiff%82

wOBA66

BB%62

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsMichael Arroyo (age 18) · Alirio Ferrebus (age 18) · Jesus Rodriguez (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 131 proj PA

wRC+†73

AVG/OBP/SLG.219 / .302 / .289

PA131

HR1

K%23

BB%9

ISO71

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$43M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.0	$5M	+$4M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2036	Arb-1	$4M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.3M
2037	Arb-2	$5M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$7M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$13M	+$8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	17	ROK	DSL Twins	—	157	121	32	3	0	2	27	23	8	2	1	264	429	339	768	74	309	15	17	364	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	157	129	22	2	0	1	19	28	8	2	1	171	314	209	523	39	195	18	12	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	157	129	22	2	0	1	19	28	8	2	1	171	314	209	523	39	208	18	12	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	—	157	121	32	3	0	2	27	23	8	2	1	264	429	339	768	74	309	15	17	364	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	157	129	22	2	0	1	19	28	8	2	1	171	314	209	523	39	195	18	12	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	157	129	22	2	0	1	19	28	8	2	1	171	314	209	523	39	195	18	12	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	18	MLB MLE	MIN	0%	267	237	52	7	2	2	23	62	5	3	1	221	304	292	596	71	287	23	9	276	73	-9	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	MIN	34%	219	194	43	6	1	2	19	51	4	2	1	225	309	306	615	81	289	23	9	283	78	-6	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.3
2029	20	MLB MLE	MIN	48%	352	311	71	10	2	5	31	81	7	3	2	229	313	318	632	89	291	23	9	290	82	-7	-0	+0	+6	+8	0.6
2030	21	MLB MLE	MIN	54%	453	400	93	13	3	7	40	103	10	4	2	232	316	329	645	97	292	23	9	295	86	-8	+0	+0	+8	+10	1.0
2031	22	MLB MLE	MIN	57%	520	458	108	16	3	9	46	118	11	5	3	234	318	338	657	104	293	23	9	299	89	-7	-0	+0	+9	+11	1.4
2032	23	MLB MLE	MIN	58%	520	458	109	16	3	10	46	117	11	5	3	236	320	346	666	110	294	22	9	303	91	-6	-0	+0	+9	+11	1.5
2033	24	MLB MLE	MIN	57%	520	458	109	16	3	10	46	117	11	5	3	238	321	350	671	112	295	22	9	305	92	-5	-0	+0	+9	+11	1.6
2034	25	MLB MLE	MIN	57%	520	458	109	16	3	10	46	117	11	5	3	238	322	352	674	114	295	22	9	306	93	-4	-0	+0	+9	+11	1.6
2035	26	MLB MLE	MIN	57%	520	459	109	16	3	10	46	117	10	4	3	238	322	354	676	116	295	22	9	306	93	-4	-0	+0	+9	+11	1.6
2036	27	MLB MLE	MIN	55%	520	459	109	16	3	10	46	118	10	4	3	237	321	351	672	114	294	23	9	305	92	-5	-0	+0	+9	+11	1.6
2037	28	MLB MLE	MIN	55%	520	459	109	16	3	10	46	119	10	4	4	235	319	346	665	111	293	23	9	302	91	-6	-1	-1	+9	+11	1.3
2038	29	MLB MLE	MIN	53%	520	459	107	15	3	10	46	120	10	4	5	233	316	340	655	107	292	23	9	298	88	-7	-1	-1	+9	+11	1.1
2039	30	MLB MLE	MIN	53%	520	459	105	15	2	9	46	122	10	4	8	229	312	331	644	102	290	23	9	294	85	-9	-2	-2	+9	+11	0.7
2040	31	MLB MLE	MIN	52%	504	446	100	14	2	8	44	120	9	3	39	225	307	321	628	96	287	24	9	287	81	-12	-15	-3	+9	+11	-1.0
2028	19	MLB CTX	MIN	34%	75	66	15	2	0	1	7	17	2	1	0	225	310	306	616	81	290	23	9	284	78	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2029	20	MLB CTX	MIN	48%	171	150	34	5	1	2	15	39	4	2	1	229	314	318	632	90	291	23	9	290	82	-4	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.3
2030	21	MLB CTX	MIN	54%	246	217	50	7	1	4	22	56	5	2	1	232	316	329	646	98	292	23	9	295	86	-4	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.6
2031	22	MLB CTX	MIN	57%	294	260	61	9	2	5	26	67	6	3	1	234	319	339	657	104	293	23	9	299	89	-4	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.8
2032	23	MLB CTX	MIN	58%	299	265	63	9	2	6	26	67	6	3	1	236	320	347	667	110	294	22	9	303	91	-3	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.9
2033	24	MLB CTX	MIN	57%	296	262	63	9	2	6	26	67	6	3	1	238	321	350	672	113	295	23	9	305	92	-3	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.9
2034	25	MLB CTX	MIN	57%	295	261	62	9	2	6	26	66	6	3	1	238	322	353	675	115	295	22	9	306	93	-2	+0	+0	+5	+6	1.0
2035	26	MLB CTX	MIN	57%	294	260	62	9	2	6	26	66	6	3	2	238	322	354	676	116	295	22	9	307	93	-2	-0	+0	+5	+6	0.9
2036	27	MLB CTX	MIN	55%	289	255	61	9	2	6	26	65	6	2	2	237	321	351	672	114	294	22	9	305	92	-3	-0	+0	+5	+6	0.9
2037	28	MLB CTX	MIN	55%	286	253	59	9	1	5	25	65	6	2	2	235	319	347	665	111	293	23	9	302	91	-3	-0	-0	+5	+6	0.7
2038	29	MLB CTX	MIN	53%	278	246	56	8	1	5	25	64	5	2	3	233	316	340	656	107	292	23	9	298	88	-4	-1	-1	+5	+6	0.6
2039	30	MLB CTX	MIN	53%	274	243	56	8	1	5	24	64	5	2	4	229	312	332	644	102	290	23	9	294	85	-5	-1	-1	+5	+6	0.4
2040	31	MLB CTX	MIN	52%	263	233	52	7	1	4	23	63	5	2	20	225	307	322	629	96	287	24	9	288	81	-6	-8	-1	+5	+6	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3360	2971	694	100	18	61	297	766	68	30	39	234	317	341	658	107	294	23	9	299	87	-45	-10	-4	+60	+73	7.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	575	134	19	3	12	57	148	13	6	8	233	316	339	655	106	293	23	9	299	87	-9	-2	-1	+12	+14	1.5
Career	—	MLE		—	6496	5723	1329	191	35	112	578	1479	135	55	80	232	317	337	654	104	292	23	9	297	87	-90	-21	-7	+113	+137	13.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	573	133	19	4	11	58	148	14	6	8	232	318	337	655	105	292	23	9	297	87	-9	-2	-1	+12	+14	1.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Clay Dalrymple'60-'71 * career totals — 11 seasons, 3,532 PA	5.3	3,532	55	3	231*	325*	358*	+63	+0	12.9	12.7
/162	664	10	1	+11.9	+0.0	2.4	pk7: 12
#4Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	5.3	3,491	61	29	234	314	340	+62	+32	10.0	8.7
/162	664	12	6	+11.9	+6.1	1.9	pk7: 7
#5Randy Hundley'64-'77 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,797 PA	5.7	3,797	82	12	236*	295*	383*	+68	+0	8.0	8.7
/162	664	14	2	+11.8	+0.0	1.4	pk7: 9
#6Buck Rodgers'61-'69 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,353 PA	5.0	3,353	31	17	239*	294*	339*	+60	+0	6.4	6.5
/162	664	6	3	+11.8	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luis Duarte (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	219/302/289	70	287	1	1	23%	9%	73	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Michael Arroyo 2023 · A	18	45→51	39→50	44→50	49	210/310/300	90	269	6	7	22%	8%	79	-0.2	217/319/344	127	291	11	8	27%	9%	93	+0.8	232/324/382	150	294	16	12	25%	8%	100	+1.3
✕Alirio Ferrebus 2024 · A	18	47	37→50	49→45	43	218/293/295	77	297	5	9	26%	6%	70	-0.8	229/288/340	111	275	11	6	20%	5%	78	-0.3	235/286/353	118	276	13	4	19%	4%	79	-0.1
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2021 · A	19	45→55	40→45	49→50	48	215/278/314	99	274	7	9	23%	8%	68	-1.0	227/295/327	100	280	6	12	20%	8%	78	-0.3	265/326/372	107	319	9	16	19%	7%	96	+0.8
✕Hector Osorio 2023 · A	18	46	37→45	47→50	49	215/299/289	74	290	4	8	25%	9%	72	-0.7	205/319/270	65	256	3	14	19%	12%	76	-0.4	223/323/350	127	253	16	10	18%	10%	93	+0.4
✕Luis Torrens 2014 · A	18	42→49	36→50	49→40	45	200/267/261	62	282	3	5	29%	8%	52	-2.2	206/282/284	78	279	6	5	26%	8%	63	-1.3	233/290/382	149	292	18	0	26%	7%	89	+0.3
✕Ali Sánchez 2015 · A	18	44	37→45	42→40	50	210/283/277	67	260	5	8	20%	8%	62	-1.4	215/266/268	53	272	3	6	21%	6%	53	-2.1	247/298/343	95	318	11	1	25%	7%	79	-0.1
✕Ramon Mendoza 2019 · A	18	43→51	39→45	47→45	49	205/283/297	92	259	5	4	22%	8%	67	-1.1	204/276/286	82	286	4	4	28%	7%	61	-1.5	232/310/341	109	301	10	3	24%	9%	83	+0.1
✕Deivy Grullón 2014 · A	18	46→45	38→55	48→30	44	218/266/297	79	275	4	4	22%	6%	59	-1.6	211/252/305	94	288	8	2	28%	5%	56	-1.9	236/277/397	161	310	22	0	31%	5%	85	+0.2
✕Andy Paz 2012 · A	19	47	36→40	44→45	52	220/303/284	64	270	3	8	18%	9%	72	-0.7	199/266/269	70	259	4	5	23%	8%	53	-2.1	215/270/283	69	275	5	4	23%	7%	55	-0.5
✕Miguel Rodríguez 2024 · A	18	48	35→40	45	58	218/327/282	64	261	2	10	16%	11%	82	-0.0	223/312/301	78	263	5	7	16%	9%	80	-0.2	228/321/301	73	263	6	6	15%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Kleyver Salazar 2024 · A	18	40→50	37→50	48→40	52	188/274/261	73	244	3	4	23%	10%	55	-1.9	194/274/283	89	264	8	4	27%	9%	60	-1.6	200/286/298	98	264	10	4	26%	10%	67	-0.6
✕Andres Melendez 2019 · A	18	46	37→50	49→40	48	215/276/292	77	257	4	7	18%	6%	62	-1.4	205/273/296	91	276	6	5	26%	8%	63	-1.4	189/272/303	114	277	10	2	33%	9%	62	-0.5
✕Carlos Virahonda 2024 · A	18	43	38→55	44→45	42	202/279/289	86	248	3	7	19%	4%	64	-1.3	190/275/279	89	238	7	5	22%	6%	61	-1.5	195/286/306	111	240	12	4	23%	6%	69	-0.5
✕Juan Fernandez 2017 · A	18	48→58	37→40	45→50	52	224/309/297	73	285	4	5	21%	9%	76	-0.4	212/273/299	87	269	6	4	22%	6%	63	-1.4	239/301/321	82	296	8	9	21%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Jancel Villarroel 2024 · A	19	46	40→45	44→50	53	218/308/313	95	272	6	8	21%	10%	80	-0.1	214/289/309	95	287	8	11	26%	7%	72	-0.7	215/287/315	100	285	9	11	26%	6%	70	-0.5
✕Edward Duran 2022 · A	18	47→48	37→40	49→45	48	221/290/297	77	273	3	9	20%	7%	70	-0.9	209/283/276	67	264	2	8	20%	8%	62	-1.4	230/305/310	79	304	5	8	24%	8%	75	-0.2
✕Alexander Albertus 2023 · A	18	48	35→45	54→45	60	217/327/281	64	275	2	9	20%	13%	80	-0.1	229/324/321	92	284	8	10	20%	11%	88	+0.4	229/322/327	98	289	9	8	22%	11%	87	+0.1
✕Tyler Rodriguez 2024 · A	18	41	38→40	49→55	55	196/307/275	79	247	6	14	22%	11%	73	-0.6	208/326/276	68	266	5	17	21%	11%	80	-0.1	203/334/262	59	262	5	20	21%	12%	79	-0.1
✕Meibrys Viloria 2015 · A	18	43→48	38→45	46→40	50	204/277/287	83	255	5	5	21%	9%	62	-1.4	233/285/320	87	295	6	3	22%	6%	72	-0.7	246/292/359	114	319	10	2	25%	5%	80	-0.1
●Franklin Arias 2024 · A	18	48→58	37→50	46→50	52	223/290/295	72	258	3	6	15%	8%	68	-1.0	246/303/362	116	293	11	14	19%	7%	88	+0.5	260/316/394	134	300	15	13	18%	6%	99	+1.0

Luis Duarte

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps