Carlos Carrión

SS DSL Cardinals

Age 18 S/R ROK HR -14%BB -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	17	ROKSTL	39	.162/.205/.297	1	2	-30	—	.079/.103/.105
2027PROJ0% MLB	18	MLBSTL	149	.204/.251/.292	1	3	52	-0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	19	MLBSTL	48	.209/.259/.302	1	1	57	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsJhonny Severino (age 18) · Dennys Riera (age 18) · Freili Encarnacion (age 18)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 49 proj PA

wRC+†52

AVG/OBP/SLG.202 / .249 / .289

PA49

HR0

K%31

BB%5

ISO88

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	17	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	39	37	6	2	0	1	2	12	0	2	0	162	205	297	502	135	208	31	5	225	-30	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	39	38	3	1	0	0	1	15	0	2	0	79	103	105	208	26	132	38	3	124	-30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	39	38	3	1	0	0	1	15	0	2	0	79	103	105	208	26	130	38	3	124	-30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	—	39	37	6	2	0	1	2	12	0	2	0	162	205	297	502	135	208	31	5	225	-30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	39	38	3	1	0	0	1	15	0	2	0	79	103	105	208	26	132	38	3	124	-30	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	39	38	3	1	0	0	1	15	0	2	0	79	103	105	208	26	132	38	3	124	-30	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	18	MLB MLE	STL	0%	149	139	28	6	1	1	8	46	1	3	0	204	251	292	543	88	290	31	5	245	52	-9	+1	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	STL	34%	141	131	28	6	1	2	8	43	1	2	1	208	258	302	560	94	292	30	6	252	57	-7	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.3
2028	19	MLB CTX	STL	34%	48	45	9	2	0	1	3	15	0	1	0	209	259	302	561	93	295	31	6	253	57	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	48	45	9	2	0	1	3	15	0	1	0	200	250	311	561	111	276	31	6	253	41	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	609	122	27	0	14	41	203	0	14	0	200	251	314	564	113	276	31	6	253	41	-33	+3	+0	+7	+14	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		—	229	215	40	9	1	2	12	73	1	5	1	186	232	265	498	79	270	32	5	229	41	-10	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	610	114	26	3	6	34	207	3	14	3	187	233	269	502	82	270	32	5	229	41	-34	+1	+0	+7	+14	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Carlos Carrión (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	202/249/289	87	290	0	1	31%	5%	52	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jhonny Severino 2023 · A	18	39→31	37→55	52→50	37	186/240/258	72	286	4	11	35%	6%	41	-3.0	195/244/329	134	266	15	12	32%	5%	59	-1.6	186/231/352	166	232	22	11	31%	5%	58	-1.2
✕Dennys Riera 2023 · A	18	34	38→40	50	39	169/229/246	77	248	5	6	33%	6%	34	-3.5	162/235/226	64	222	3	6	27%	6%	34	-3.5	156/245/214	58	204	3	7	23%	6%	36	-0.9
✕Freili Encarnacion 2023 · A	18	39→33	37→50	52→50	37	183/247/256	72	292	5	11	37%	6%	44	-2.8	193/247/276	83	300	7	11	36%	4%	48	-2.5	184/237/297	113	271	13	10	36%	4%	47	-1.4
✕Carlos Sanchez 2023 · A	18	38	38→45	51→40	46	187/246/265	78	238	6	9	24%	7%	45	-2.7	186/251/253	67	256	4	5	27%	7%	45	-2.7	165/250/261	96	232	11	2	32%	9%	45	-0.9
✕Julio Garcia 2015 · A	18	38→37	35→40	45→40	41	184/238/243	59	264	3	7	30%	6%	36	-3.3	184/222/240	56	277	2	11	32%	4%	29	-3.8	185/214/247	62	283	3	6	35%	3%	25	-2.1
✕Robel García 2011 · A	18	36→37	38→50	50→40	47	172/261/255	82	265	4	9	33%	10%	49	-2.4	185/254/288	103	284	7	7	35%	8%	54	-2.0	188/259/372	183	269	25	2	39%	8%	74	-0.3
✕Jonathan Mejía 2024 · A	19	35	39→45	52→50	47	168/269/256	88	264	6	9	35%	10%	53	-2.1	183/267/281	98	305	9	15	39%	9%	58	-1.7	169/262/280	111	278	11	16	40%	10%	54	-0.9
✕Jeison Guzmán 2017 · A	18	42→43	37→45	50	40	198/246/274	76	281	3	8	30%	6%	46	-2.6	198/245/267	69	276	4	11	28%	5%	44	-2.8	202/251/311	109	284	10	10	31%	5%	54	-1.2
✕Franyerber Montilla 2023 · A	18	36	37→40	48→55	48	170/261/247	77	267	4	11	35%	11%	48	-2.5	184/272/276	92	264	7	20	30%	10%	59	-1.7	181/272/275	95	256	8	28	30%	10%	56	-0.8
✕Jean Carmona 2018 · A	18	43	37→40	49→50	43	202/274/288	86	292	3	10	30%	7%	61	-1.5	199/254/295	96	304	6	8	34%	6%	55	-2.0	174/223/273	99	303	9	7	44%	5%	35	-1.3
✕Hansel Moreno 2015 · A	18	40→33	35→40	49→50	44	186/255/240	55	285	2	7	33%	8%	43	-2.8	189/248/255	66	274	3	10	30%	7%	43	-2.8	190/244/264	73	266	4	13	28%	6%	42	-1.1
✕Jean Selmo 2018 · A	18	37	38→40	53→45	42	178/244/257	79	264	5	8	33%	7%	43	-2.8	187/256/268	81	287	4	8	33%	8%	49	-2.4	189/276/283	93	254	3	8	24%	10%	59	-0.6
✕Ronny Brito 2018 · A	19	36	38→45	50	39	174/236/254	80	268	5	10	35%	7%	39	-3.1	201/250/308	107	346	11	5	42%	6%	57	-1.8	161/214/283	122	296	17	1	49%	6%	37	-1.2
✕Abiezel Ramirez 2018 · A	18	35	35→40	45→55	45	170/239/231	61	246	2	9	30%	8%	35	-3.4	193/260/267	74	256	3	15	24%	8%	51	-2.3	189/259/281	92	284	7	21	34%	8%	53	-0.8
✕Rayne Doncon 2022 · A	18	41→38	39→45	53→40	44	198/266/282	84	282	6	11	30%	8%	57	-1.8	195/246/322	127	253	14	6	28%	6%	59	-1.7	185/240/312	128	238	14	4	29%	6%	51	-1.4
✕David García 2018 · A	18	36	35→40	49→30	45	174/248/230	56	243	2	4	28%	7%	38	-3.2	199/253/270	71	284	4	5	29%	6%	48	-2.5	188/286/257	69	275	5	2	30%	9%	58	-0.8
✕Anderson Tejeda 2016 · A	18	42→41	39→45	47→50	45	202/266/302	100	271	5	9	26%	7%	61	-1.5	200/249/314	114	302	7	8	34%	6%	57	-1.8	195/242/315	119	306	10	8	38%	5%	52	-1.4
✕Neyfy Castillo 2019 · A	18	35→33	35→45	54→55	42	170/240/227	57	247	3	16	31%	7%	35	-3.4	181/247/272	91	291	7	13	38%	7%	47	-2.5	173/246/300	127	303	15	16	45%	7%	52	-1.2
✕Prilys Cuello 2007 · A	18	39	41→45	49→45	48	188/282/294	105	275	7	8	31%	10%	67	-1.1	207/270/309	102	301	9	8	32%	7%	64	-1.3	209/260/311	103	296	11	8	32%	6%	56	-0.4
✕Robert Lopez 2022 · A	18	37	38→45	48→45	45	176/263/256	80	259	5	6	32%	8%	51	-2.3	191/259/271	80	288	6	4	33%	8%	52	-2.2	190/257/269	80	283	7	3	33%	8%	47	-0.8