Samil Serrano

OF DSL Nationals

Age 18 L/L ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	17	ROKWSH	179	.310/.435/.538	5	13	70	—	.182/.288/.286
2027PROJ0% MLB	18	MLBWSH	289	.223/.298/.328	3	9	78	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	19	MLBWSH	81	.226/.302/.335	1	3	83	-0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	20	MLBWSH	177	.229/.306/.345	3	6	87	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Chase%96

Whiff%94

ISO89

wOBA87

Speed86

Z-Con%84

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 95%

CompsForrest Wall (age 19) · Estevan Florial (age 18) · Akil Baddoo (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 150 proj PA

wRC+†78

AVG/OBP/SLG.221 / .295 / .325

PA150

HR2

K%24

BB%8

ISO105

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.9M
2036	Arb-1	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-2	$4M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$4M	+0.2	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	17	ROK	DSL Nationals	—	179	145	45	10	4	5	29	28	3	13	3	310	435	538	973	228	351	16	16	423	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	179	154	28	6	2	2	20	34	3	13	3	182	288	286	574	104	220	19	11	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	179	154	28	6	2	2	20	34	3	13	3	182	288	286	574	104	217	19	11	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	—	179	145	45	10	4	5	29	28	3	13	3	310	435	538	973	228	351	16	16	423	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	179	154	28	6	2	2	20	34	3	13	3	182	288	286	574	104	220	19	11	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	179	154	28	6	2	2	20	34	3	13	3	182	288	286	574	104	220	19	11	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	18	MLB MLE	WSH	0%	289	259	58	11	3	3	25	68	3	9	1	223	298	328	626	105	287	24	9	283	78	-8	+1	+0	-2	+6	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	WSH	34%	236	211	48	9	3	3	20	55	3	8	2	227	303	340	643	113	290	23	8	291	83	-5	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.0
2029	20	MLB MLE	WSH	48%	366	327	76	14	4	6	31	85	5	13	3	231	307	351	658	120	291	23	8	297	87	-6	+1	+0	-2	+8	0.1
2030	21	MLB MLE	WSH	54%	463	414	96	17	5	8	40	106	6	16	4	233	311	360	670	126	292	23	9	301	90	-5	+2	+0	-3	+10	0.4
2031	22	MLB MLE	WSH	57%	531	473	111	20	6	10	46	121	7	19	5	236	313	367	680	132	293	23	9	305	93	-5	+2	+0	-3	+12	0.6
2032	23	MLB MLE	WSH	58%	578	515	122	22	6	12	50	132	8	20	5	238	315	374	688	136	294	23	9	308	95	-4	+2	+0	-3	+13	0.8
2033	24	MLB MLE	WSH	57%	608	542	129	23	6	13	53	138	8	21	5	239	316	377	693	138	295	23	9	310	96	-3	+2	+0	-4	+13	0.9
2034	25	MLB MLE	WSH	57%	624	557	134	24	7	14	54	142	8	22	6	240	316	379	696	140	295	23	9	311	97	-2	+2	+0	-4	+14	1.0
2035	26	MLB MLE	WSH	57%	633	565	135	24	7	14	55	144	8	22	6	240	316	381	697	141	295	23	9	312	97	-2	+2	+0	-4	+14	1.0
2036	27	MLB MLE	WSH	55%	633	565	135	24	7	14	55	145	8	22	6	239	315	378	693	139	294	23	9	310	96	-3	+2	+0	-4	+14	0.9
2037	28	MLB MLE	WSH	55%	629	561	132	24	6	13	55	145	8	21	6	237	313	373	687	137	293	23	9	308	94	-4	+2	-1	-4	+14	0.7
2038	29	MLB MLE	WSH	53%	619	552	129	23	6	13	54	145	8	20	6	234	310	367	677	133	292	23	9	304	92	-6	+2	-1	-4	+13	0.4
2039	30	MLB MLE	WSH	53%	608	544	125	22	6	12	52	144	7	20	6	231	307	359	666	128	290	24	9	299	89	-8	+2	-2	-4	+13	0.1
2040	31	MLB MLE	WSH	52%	594	532	121	21	6	11	50	143	7	18	7	227	302	349	651	122	287	24	8	293	85	-11	+1	-3	-4	+13	-0.4
2028	19	MLB CTX	WSH	34%	81	73	16	3	1	1	7	19	1	3	1	226	302	335	636	109	287	23	9	288	83	-2	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.0
2029	20	MLB CTX	WSH	48%	177	158	37	7	2	3	15	41	2	6	1	229	306	345	651	116	289	23	8	294	87	-3	+1	+0	-1	+4	0.1
2030	21	MLB CTX	WSH	54%	251	224	52	10	2	4	22	58	3	9	2	232	309	355	664	123	290	23	9	299	90	-3	+1	+0	-2	+5	0.2
2031	22	MLB CTX	WSH	57%	301	268	64	12	3	6	26	69	4	11	3	234	312	362	674	128	291	23	9	303	93	-3	+1	+0	-2	+7	0.3
2032	23	MLB CTX	WSH	58%	333	297	70	13	3	7	29	76	4	12	3	236	313	369	682	132	292	23	9	306	95	-2	+1	+0	-2	+7	0.4
2033	24	MLB CTX	WSH	57%	347	309	74	14	3	7	30	79	5	12	3	238	315	372	687	135	293	23	9	308	96	-2	+1	+0	-2	+8	0.5
2034	25	MLB CTX	WSH	57%	354	315	76	14	3	8	31	80	5	12	3	238	315	375	690	136	293	23	9	309	97	-1	+1	+0	-2	+8	0.6
2035	26	MLB CTX	WSH	57%	358	319	76	14	3	8	31	81	5	12	3	238	315	376	691	138	293	23	9	310	97	-1	+1	+0	-2	+8	0.6
2036	27	MLB CTX	WSH	55%	351	312	75	14	3	8	31	80	5	12	3	237	314	373	688	136	292	23	9	308	96	-2	+1	+0	-2	+8	0.5
2037	28	MLB CTX	WSH	55%	345	308	72	13	3	7	30	80	4	12	3	235	312	369	681	133	291	23	9	306	94	-2	+1	-0	-2	+7	0.4
2038	29	MLB CTX	WSH	53%	331	295	70	13	3	7	29	77	4	11	3	233	309	362	672	130	290	23	9	302	92	-3	+1	-1	-2	+7	0.2
2039	30	MLB CTX	WSH	53%	320	285	66	12	3	6	28	76	4	10	3	230	306	354	660	125	288	24	9	297	89	-4	+1	-1	-2	+7	0.0
2040	31	MLB CTX	WSH	52%	310	277	62	11	2	6	26	75	4	9	3	225	301	345	645	119	285	24	8	291	85	-6	+1	-1	-2	+7	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3859	3440	810	150	34	78	335	891	50	131	34	235	312	367	679	131	294	23	9	303	92	-33	+13	-4	-23	+84	3.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	579	136	25	6	13	56	150	8	22	6	235	311	366	677	131	293	23	9	303	92	-6	+2	-1	-4	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	7451	6646	1552	279	79	147	648	1714	96	259	71	234	311	366	676	132	291	23	9	304	92	-67	+22	-7	-44	+158	6.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	580	135	24	7	13	57	150	8	23	6	233	310	366	676	133	290	23	9	304	92	-6	+2	-1	-4	+14	0.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Frank Isbell'01-'09 * career totals — 9 seasons, 4,483 PA	6.8	4,483	13	250	248*	300*	403*	-42	+24	9.5	10.1
/162	664	2	37	-6.2	+3.6	1.4	pk7: 11
#2Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
/162	664	17	29	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#3Billy Hatcher'84-'95 * career totals — 10 seasons, 4,752 PA	7.2	4,752	54	218	261*	310*	385*	-20	-5	4.9	6.8
/162	664	8	30	-2.9	-0.7	0.7	pk7: 9
#4Willie Harrislast yr '11 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,743 PA	4.1	2,743	39	106	241	331	351	-11	-2	5.3	6.2
/162	664	9	26	-2.7	-0.5	1.3	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	6.0	4,009	79	135	236	309	369	-24	+0	6.3	5.6
/162	664	13	22	-4.0	+0.0	1.0	pk7: 5
#5Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#6Bert Haas'37-'51 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,674 PA	4.0	2,674	22	51	258*	313*	395*	-19	-7	3.1	3.5
/162	664	5	13	-4.6	-1.8	0.8	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Samil Serrano (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	221/295/325	104	287	2	4	24%	8%	78	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Forrest Wall 2015 · A	19	48→55	41→45	56→70	47	227/291/331	104	301	7	17	26%	8%	76	-0.4	226/279/325	99	296	7	16	25%	6%	70	-0.8	250/321/350	101	344	8	50	27%	8%	89	+0.3
✕Estevan Florial 2016 · A	18	43→53	41→50	54→60	45	205/273/309	104	282	7	12	28%	8%	65	-1.2	211/272/326	115	344	10	13	38%	7%	69	-0.9	214/285/371	157	317	17	29	36%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Akil Baddoo 2018 · A	19	46→53	42→50	52→55	49	220/298/335	114	290	7	10	25%	9%	80	-0.1	201/274/317	116	305	8	13	34%	9%	68	-1.0	238/319/386	148	309	15	24	26%	11%	100	+0.9
✕Telmito Agustin 2015 · A	18	43→42	39→45	58→50	51	204/287/303	99	262	4	18	22%	9%	70	-0.9	223/268/319	96	306	6	15	27%	5%	65	-1.2	228/261/337	108	324	10	12	32%	4%	64	-0.7
✕Derek Hill 2015 · A	19	41→51	40→55	55→60	47	200/270/292	91	260	7	13	25%	8%	60	-1.6	205/256/277	72	300	3	25	30%	6%	51	-2.3	240/291/409	169	325	21	27	32%	5%	95	+0.4
✕Gilberto Celestino 2017 · A	18	44→53	39→45	54→55	48	206/278/298	92	275	5	13	25%	9%	65	-1.2	213/265/301	88	288	6	11	27%	6%	60	-1.6	239/317/316	76	309	5	10	22%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Derek Bernard 2024 · A	18	43→46	40	54→50	47	206/274/303	97	275	7	16	26%	8%	65	-1.2	215/276/314	99	339	7	13	36%	7%	68	-1.0	218/283/320	102	353	8	12	38%	8%	68	-0.5
✕Taylor Trammell 2018 · A	20	46→48	42→55	57→55	44	221/281/328	107	312	8	21	30%	8%	72	-0.7	211/286/306	95	305	8	18	31%	9%	70	-0.8	213/300/386	173	283	21	17	31%	10%	93	+0.5
✕Héctor Rodríguez 2023 · A	19	48→52	42→50	53→50	45	231/273/348	117	266	7	15	16%	5%	74	-0.6	241/277/370	129	290	12	11	21%	4%	80	-0.1	243/284/388	145	281	17	9	20%	5%	85	+0.2
✕Dalton Pompey 2012 · A	19	39→49	41→45	56→55	45	194/267/288	94	272	9	17	30%	8%	59	-1.6	221/287/321	100	309	7	21	28%	8%	73	-0.6	269/328/372	103	341	7	29	22%	7%	97	+0.9
✕Franchy Cordero 2014 · A	19	44→54	38→55	58→50	41	207/265/293	86	304	5	13	32%	7%	58	-1.7	208/250/287	79	323	5	13	35%	5%	51	-2.3	250/293/418	168	373	15	17	35%	5%	94	+0.7
✕Max Clark 2024 · A	19	44→53	42→45	51→55	48	207/292/314	106	308	9	11	33%	10%	74	-0.5	238/314/357	119	306	11	17	24%	9%	92	+0.7	245/323/369	124	304	11	19	22%	10%	96	+0.9
✕Victor Robles 2015 · A	18	45→54	39→50	53→60	46	214/285/305	92	254	5	19	17%	6%	70	-0.9	242/313/356	114	299	7	22	21%	5%	92	+0.7	251/319/400	149	311	12	27	22%	5%	103	+1.2
✕Jose Escobar 2023 · A	18	42→52	40	57→45	42	203/256/302	99	255	6	15	23%	5%	57	-1.8	219/288/315	96	285	8	12	24%	7%	72	-0.7	236/304/334	98	303	8	8	23%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Adrian Cardenas 2007 · A	19	47→57	39→45	54→50	43	226/277/312	86	293	6	14	24%	6%	67	-1.1	258/305/354	96	315	6	11	19%	6%	86	+0.3	281/332/373	92	325	5	8	14%	7%	100	+1.2
●Jahmai Jones 2017 · A	19	47→51	39→50	52→50	43	225/278/309	84	286	6	17	23%	6%	67	-1.1	225/283/333	108	294	9	15	25%	7%	74	-0.5	250/346/426	175	326	16	18	26%	11%	116	+1.4
✕Juan Villavicencio 2023 · A	18	41→44	37→50	55	45	194/259/272	77	267	4	14	28%	8%	51	-2.2	178/254/255	77	256	5	12	30%	8%	47	-2.6	193/266/307	113	285	10	20	34%	8%	61	-0.6
✕Leody Taveras 2017 · A	18	47→55	37→50	52→55	44	224/269/304	81	286	3	15	22%	6%	61	-1.5	223/267/303	80	289	5	13	23%	6%	61	-1.5	251/301/382	131	311	12	20	23%	7%	92	+0.7
✕Luigi Rodriguez 2012 · A	19	48→49	39→50	55	44	226/281/315	89	302	5	21	26%	7%	69	-0.9	220/276/313	93	336	7	15	34%	7%	67	-1.1	226/267/359	133	345	15	15	38%	5%	72	-0.4
✕Jarred Kelenic 2019 · A	20	45→54	43→60	57→50	43	219/279/335	116	297	10	13	29%	7%	74	-0.6	230/290/411	181	294	21	13	28%	7%	96	+1.0	230/297/414	184	294	20	15	28%	8%	99	+1.1

Samil Serrano

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps