Antonio Morales — OGILVIE

Antonio Morales P DSL Astros Orange

Age 19 RHP 6'1" / 194 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.4 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 22 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.78

FIP4.78

K%17.3%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%8.3%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$12M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	11	4	37	167	20	12	3	36%	3.4	8.1%	9.0%	-0.8%	1.7%	5.54	4.48	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	11	4	37	167	20	12	3	36%	3.4	8.1%	9.0%	-0.8%	1.7%	5.54	4.48	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	11	4	37	167	20	12	3	36%	3.4	12.0%	7.2%	4.8%	1.8%	5.54	4.04	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	12	5	45	186	32	14	1	42%	3.8	11.7%	9.4%	2.3%	0.8%	2.38	3.72	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	12	5	45	186	32	14	1	42%	3.8	11.7%	9.4%	2.3%	0.8%	2.38	3.72	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	12	5	45	186	32	14	1	42%	3.8	17.2%	7.5%	9.7%	0.5%	2.38	2.90	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	—	44	0	47	197	37	17	6	0%	1.1	18.9%	8.8%	10.1%	2.9%	4.64	4.58	-0.0
2028	21	MLB MLE	—	47	0	49	206	41	18	6	0%	1.0	19.9%	8.5%	11.4%	2.8%	4.51	4.43	+0.1
2029	22	MLB MLE	—	49	0	51	217	46	18	6	0%	1.0	21.2%	8.2%	13.0%	2.8%	4.36	4.25	+0.2
2030	23	MLB MLE	—	51	0	53	225	49	18	6	0%	1.0	21.9%	7.9%	14.1%	2.7%	4.22	4.13	+0.3
2031	24	MLB MLE	—	52	0	54	230	52	18	6	0%	1.0	22.5%	7.6%	14.8%	2.7%	4.11	4.04	+0.3
2032	25	MLB MLE	—	53	0	55	233	53	18	6	0%	1.0	22.9%	7.5%	15.3%	2.7%	4.03	3.98	+0.4
2033	26	MLB MLE	—	53	0	55	233	54	17	6	0%	1.0	23.1%	7.5%	15.6%	2.7%	3.99	3.96	+0.4
2034	27	MLB MLE	—	52	0	54	230	53	17	6	0%	1.0	23.1%	7.6%	15.5%	2.7%	4.00	4.00	+0.4
2027	20	MLB CTX	—	22	0	23	97	18	8	3	0%	1.0	18.9%	8.8%	10.1%	2.9%	4.64	4.58	-0.0
2028	21	MLB CTX	—	34	0	36	152	30	13	4	0%	1.1	19.9%	8.5%	11.4%	2.8%	4.51	4.43	+0.0
2029	22	MLB CTX	—	41	0	43	182	38	15	5	0%	1.0	21.2%	8.2%	13.0%	2.8%	4.36	4.25	+0.2
2030	23	MLB CTX	—	46	0	48	203	44	16	6	0%	1.0	21.9%	7.9%	14.1%	2.7%	4.22	4.13	+0.2
2031	24	MLB CTX	—	48	0	50	211	47	16	6	0%	1.0	22.5%	7.6%	14.8%	2.7%	4.11	4.04	+0.3
2032	25	MLB CTX	—	50	0	52	220	50	17	6	0%	1.0	22.9%	7.5%	15.3%	2.7%	4.03	3.98	+0.4
2033	26	MLB CTX	—	50	0	52	220	51	16	6	0%	1.0	23.1%	7.5%	15.6%	2.7%	3.99	3.96	+0.4
2034	27	MLB CTX	—	50	0	52	220	51	17	6	0%	1.0	23.1%	7.6%	15.5%	2.7%	4.00	4.00	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		339	0	356	1501	330	118	41	0%	1.0	22.0%	7.8%	14.1%	2.7%	4.18	3.75	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	186	66	23	0%	1.1	22.0%	7.8%	14.1%	2.7%	4.18	3.75	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		23	9	83	353	35	32	4	39%	3.6	10.0%	9.2%	0.8%	1.2%	3.81	4.08	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	22	200	854	86	79	10	39%	3.6	10.0%	9.2%	0.8%	1.2%	3.81	4.08	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Antonio Morales (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.78	17.3%	9.0%	2.9%	—	4.41	20.0%	11.5%	147	-0.37	—	—	—
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	86
Geno Encina R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	21	SW	4.22	16.5%	6.8%	3.0%	.325	7.09	12.0%	2.3%	76	+2.87	4.22	200	85
Sean Paul Liñan R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	18	SP-	4.05	17.7%	8.3%	2.5%	.324	4.30	22.1%	10.2%	210	+0.25	3.29	272	85
Dawil Almonte R 2022 · 3.59 FIP	20	SW	3.59	17.4%	7.8%	1.8%	.271	4.54	14.7%	3.3%	97	+0.95	3.59	138	84
Luis Aguilar R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	17.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.356	4.27	16.7%	6.7%	111	-0.18	3.51	146	84
Simon Mathews R 2017 · 4.09 FIP	21	SW	4.09	17.7%	7.5%	2.8%	.326	4.42	16.0%	5.9%	167	+0.33	4.09	215	83
Julio Goff R 2019 · 4.80 FIP	19	SW	4.80	16.1%	11.9%	2.8%	.364	4.70	16.4%	5.9%	207	-0.10	4.46	251	83
Mike Garcia R 2018 · 4.11 FIP	17	SP-	4.11	17.7%	10.6%	2.1%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	125	83
Carlos Gutierrez R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	19	SW	4.71	15.1%	7.1%	3.6%	.326	3.08	18.3%	6.2%	47	-1.63	3.08	122	82
Luis Ojeda R 2016 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	12.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.344	5.39	12.1%	3.7%	92	+0.94	4.45	131	82
Wellington Caceres R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	20	SP-	4.16	13.9%	6.4%	2.6%	.306	5.82	13.1%	2.1%	68	+1.66	4.16	121	82
Miguel Rondon R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	18	SP-	4.47	18.9%	9.4%	3.2%	.361	7.30	18.1%	2.1%	88	+2.83	2.62	179	82
Jerming Rosario R 2021 · 4.97 FIP	19	SW	4.97	21.1%	10.5%	4.2%	.303	4.43	20.9%	5.7%	281	-0.54	3.05	505	82
Kyle Weatherly R 2016 · 3.78 FIP	21	SP-	3.78	14.2%	7.1%	1.8%	.307	4.37	13.3%	1.6%	169	+0.59	3.78	207	82
Yunior Marte R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	19	SP-	4.22	16.4%	8.5%	2.6%	.321	4.05	18.1%	8.5%	241	-0.17	3.21	297	82
Deretd Parra R 2019 · 5.29 FIP	19	SP-	5.29	16.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.295	3.85	15.7%	2.3%	83	-1.44	2.79	161	82
Ivan Oviedo R 2022 · 3.78 FIP	19	SW	3.78	17.8%	7.9%	2.2%	.294	4.84	20.7%	5.4%	67	+1.06	3.75	174	82
Jose Morban R 2017 · 4.42 FIP	19	SP-	4.42	18.7%	11.2%	2.7%	.333	3.98	16.9%	5.8%	61	-0.44	3.98	178	81
Luis Florentino R 2019 · 3.74 FIP	19	SP-	3.74	14.5%	8.7%	1.4%	.254	6.16	16.4%	3.8%	60	+2.42	3.74	110	81
Williander Moreno R 2018 · 4.21 FIP	19	SW	4.21	13.7%	7.5%	2.4%	.302	5.16	20.2%	10.1%	57	+0.95	3.20	246	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	49	21.5%	8.0%	1.07	4.25
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
JT Chargois ('24)	1.2	33	23.3%	9.3%	0.97	3.35