Jostin Ogando

CF FCL Red Sox

Age 19 R/R 6'3" / 215 lbs ROK HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKDSL Red Sox B…	134	.282/.439/.427	4	1	76	—	.202/.341/.275
2026	18	ROKBOS	110	.232/.324/.316	1	4	21	—	.160/.222/.220
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBBOS	220	.193/.268/.273	3	3	55	-0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBBOS	39	.202/.278/.291	1	1	60	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Speed81

ISO33

BB%20

K%15

Whiff%14

wOBA13

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsJose Colmenares (age 19) · Yordyn Calderon (age 19) · Franklin Correa (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 58 proj PA

wRC+†55

AVG/OBP/SLG.191 / .266 / .270

PA58

HR1

K%30

BB%8

ISO80

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 33 / POW 41

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT33

scouting grade only

POWER41

scouting grade only

EYE62

scouting grade only

SPEED51

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	134	103	29	3	0	4	24	26	5	1	0	282	439	427	867	146	333	19	18	392	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	110	95	22	1	2	1	12	34	1	4	1	232	324	316	640	84	339	31	11	291	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	134	109	22	2	0	2	18	32	5	1	0	202	341	275	616	73	244	24	13	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	110	100	16	1	1	1	7	49	1	4	1	160	222	220	442	60	280	45	6	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	134	109	22	2	0	2	18	32	5	1	0	202	341	275	616	73	260	24	13	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	134	103	29	3	0	4	24	26	5	1	0	282	439	427	867	146	333	19	18	392	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	110	100	16	1	1	1	7	49	1	4	1	160	222	220	442	60	288	45	6	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	—	110	95	22	1	2	1	12	34	1	4	1	232	324	316	640	84	339	31	11	291	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	134	110	22	2	0	2	18	32	5	1	0	200	341	273	614	73	244	24	13	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	110	101	16	1	1	1	7	49	1	4	1	158	222	218	440	59	280	45	6	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	134	110	22	2	0	2	18	32	5	1	0	200	341	273	614	73	244	24	13	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	110	101	16	1	1	1	7	49	1	4	1	158	222	218	440	59	280	45	6	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	BOS	0%	220	197	39	5	2	3	18	66	3	3	1	193	268	273	541	80	272	30	8	249	55	-12	+0	+0	+1	+5	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	BOS	34%	113	102	21	3	1	2	9	33	1	2	1	198	274	286	560	88	274	29	8	257	60	-5	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.3
2028	20	MLB CTX	BOS	34%	39	35	7	1	0	1	3	12	1	1	0	202	278	291	570	89	282	31	8	261	60	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	39	35	7	1	0	1	3	12	1	1	0	200	282	314	596	114	273	31	8	261	54	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	583	117	17	0	17	50	200	17	17	0	201	283	317	600	117	273	31	8	261	54	-31	+3	+0	+2	+14	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	415	363	69	7	2	6	39	131	8	8	2	190	283	270	553	80	273	32	9	248	54	-8	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	569	108	11	3	9	61	205	13	13	3	190	283	267	551	77	273	32	9	248	54	-32	+1	+0	+2	+14	-1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Red Sox · 110 PAwOBA .289 → .199 (−90)K% 30.9% → 44.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.91%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	44.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.91%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×1.008	6.81%
HBP% /PA	0.91%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	0.66%
Singles /BIP	29.51%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.028	×1.008	25.06%
Doubles /BIP	1.64%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.028	×1.008	1.22%
Triples /BIP	3.28%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.028	×1.008	2.44%
Home runs /BIP	1.64%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.008	1.29%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.

Result: wOBA .289 → .199; ISO .084 → .055; BABIP .339 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Red Sox Blue · 134 PAwOBA .388 → .281 (−107)K% 19.4% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.40%	÷0.997	×1.220	—	—	23.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.91%	÷0.959	×0.700	—	×1.008	13.17%
HBP% /PA	3.73%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	2.63%
Singles /BIP	28.57%	÷0.932	×0.680	×1.050	×1.008	22.04%
Doubles /BIP	3.90%	÷1.059	×0.600	×1.050	×1.008	2.33%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.600	×1.050	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.19%	÷0.920	×0.470	—	×1.008	2.67%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 86, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 99, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .388 → .281; ISO .146 → .081; BABIP .333 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jostin Ogando (OGILVIE)	19	28→33	36→41	46→51	62	191/266/270	79	272	1	1	30%	8%	55	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jose Colmenares 2021 · A	19	40	39→45	47→50	45	194/259/280	86	254	7	8	26%	7%	54	-2.0	210/288/337	127	293	13	8	31%	9%	78	-0.3	174/246/297	123	248	13	14	34%	7%	51	-0.9
✕Yordyn Calderon 2013 · A	19	33	39→45	46→50	43	168/240/251	83	236	7	10	31%	7%	41	-3.0	191/266/296	105	275	9	11	32%	7%	61	-1.5	185/266/298	114	262	10	13	31%	8%	59	-0.8
✕Franklin Correa 2015 · A	19	37	38→40	48→50	43	179/253/258	79	261	5	10	32%	8%	47	-2.6	184/236/265	81	288	6	7	36%	5%	41	-3.0	155/195/226	71	251	6	4	39%	3%	15	-1.2
✕Aaron Familia 2018 · A	19	39	38→40	45→40	47	181/282/260	79	283	6	4	34%	10%	60	-1.6	185/266/263	78	328	5	5	41%	9%	53	-2.1	152/236/218	66	293	4	2	45%	9%	29	-0.9
✕Wilfredo Lara 2023 · A	19	37→43	37→45	49→50	41	177/245/254	77	258	4	10	31%	7%	42	-2.9	196/268/297	101	275	9	13	30%	8%	61	-1.5	186/266/282	96	258	8	18	29%	9%	55	-1.1
✕Ronny Brito 2018 · A	19	36	38→45	50	39	174/236/254	80	268	5	10	35%	7%	39	-3.1	201/250/308	107	346	11	5	42%	6%	57	-1.8	161/214/283	122	296	17	1	49%	6%	37	-1.2
✕Jose Meza 2022 · A	19	39→42	37→40	46→50	43	187/268/261	74	272	4	9	30%	7%	54	-2.0	196/281/287	91	276	8	7	29%	9%	64	-1.3	191/284/291	101	272	10	5	31%	10%	65	-0.5
✕Jose Cordoba 2022 · A	19	38	38→40	45→55	40	184/244/257	73	246	5	8	27%	5%	43	-2.8	198/254/290	92	276	7	10	29%	6%	54	-2.0	203/257/294	91	267	4	15	24%	5%	53	-0.9
✕Edwin Sanchez 2024 · A	19	37	39→40	47→50	53	179/286/263	84	239	7	8	26%	11%	62	-1.4	187/321/279	92	246	7	9	24%	13%	80	-0.2	153/326/245	92	196	8	11	22%	16%	76	-0.1
✕Abdias De La Cruz 2024 · A	19	36	39→40	44→45	46	174/260/258	84	272	7	9	36%	10%	50	-2.3	187/258/271	84	285	5	10	33%	8%	51	-2.2	179/252/275	96	262	7	9	32%	8%	48	-1.5
✕Ameilis Carvajal 2008 · A	19	37	37→40	49→50	48	174/269/241	67	275	5	11	35%	11%	50	-2.3	180/267/247	67	267	3	11	30%	10%	50	-2.3	151/247/208	57	219	2	12	29%	11%	35	-0.9
✕Alexander Mojica 2022 · A	19	39	42→45	47→40	43	193/270/291	98	282	10	4	33%	8%	61	-1.5	183/263/292	109	300	11	4	39%	9%	59	-1.7	149/242/259	110	247	12	2	42%	10%	42	-1.0
✕Rudy van Heydoorn 2008 · A	19	35	37→40	46→50	41	173/237/247	74	261	4	10	34%	7%	38	-3.2	169/266/252	83	245	7	8	31%	10%	52	-2.2	142/256/221	79	200	9	6	31%	11%	41	-1.0
✕Adrian De Leon 2023 · A	19	41	37→40	47→45	46	194/269/265	72	268	4	7	28%	8%	55	-2.0	194/292/269	75	320	6	5	37%	9%	65	-1.2	160/270/224	63	280	5	3	40%	10%	47	-1.1
✕Gabriel Rodriguez 2021 · A	19	40→42	39→40	49→40	40	194/260/282	89	272	6	6	30%	6%	55	-2.0	211/265/294	83	314	6	4	33%	6%	59	-1.7	207/268/289	82	307	7	3	33%	7%	57	-1.1
✕Roni Cabrera 2024 · A	19	39	38→45	54→55	47	186/265/271	85	255	5	11	27%	8%	55	-2.0	182/254/288	106	286	10	14	37%	7%	54	-2.0	162/238/271	109	264	12	18	41%	8%	43	-1.2
✕Douglas Glod 2023 · A	18	39	38→45	45	48	183/272/267	84	278	5	7	33%	10%	56	-1.9	171/272/262	91	324	7	5	44%	11%	56	-1.9	141/253/223	82	287	7	3	47%	12%	39	-1.2
✕Sherten Apostel 2018 · A	19	35	40→45	42→40	52	174/269/267	93	238	7	5	28%	11%	55	-1.9	194/274/314	120	277	13	4	33%	9%	68	-1.0	193/267/324	131	282	16	2	36%	8%	65	-0.6
✕George Feliz 2022 · A	19	39	40→45	53→45	43	192/254/284	92	262	7	10	29%	7%	53	-2.1	167/229/252	85	294	7	13	43%	6%	36	-3.3	160/223/268	108	267	13	9	43%	6%	36	-1.2
✕Jean Selmo 2018 · A	18	37	38→40	53→45	42	178/244/257	79	264	5	8	33%	7%	43	-2.8	187/256/268	81	287	4	8	33%	8%	49	-2.4	189/276/283	93	254	3	8	24%	10%	59	-0.6