Abdias De La Cruz
SS Visalia Rawhide| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROKARI | 224 | .301/.406/.435 | 0 | 11 | 53 | — | .200/.269/.280 |
| 2025 | 20 | AARI | 409 | .216/.315/.290 | 2 | 12 | 26 | — | .164/.241/.216 |
| 2026 | 21 | A+/AARI | 443 | .247/.346/.447 | 15 | 8 | 66 | — | .196/.270/.346 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBARI | 553 | .192/.265/.302 | 9 | 8 | 60 | -0.2 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 23 | MLBARI | 135 | .204/.277/.329 | 2 | 2 | 66 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 24 | MLBARI | 203 | .209/.282/.338 | 4 | 3 | 70 | -0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 25
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL D-backs Black | — | 184 | 151 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 54 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 179 | 322 | 265 | 587 | 86 | 260 | 29 | 17 | 281 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | ACL D-backs Black | — | 176 | 146 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 27 | 45 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 253 | 374 | 404 | 778 | 151 | 333 | 26 | 15 | 349 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | ACL D-backs | — | 224 | 186 | 56 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 32 | 46 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 301 | 406 | 435 | 842 | 134 | 389 | 21 | 14 | 370 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Visalia Rawhide | — | 409 | 352 | 76 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 46 | 105 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 216 | 315 | 290 | 605 | 74 | 297 | 26 | 11 | 280 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | — | 58 | 50 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 220 | 328 | 540 | 868 | 320 | 226 | 26 | 14 | 375 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A | Visalia Rawhide | — | 385 | 326 | 82 | 18 | 4 | 11 | 48 | 82 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 252 | 349 | 433 | 782 | 181 | 297 | 21 | 12 | 340 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL D-backs Black | — | 184 | 158 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 67 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 95 | 219 | 127 | 345 | 32 | 158 | 36 | 13 | 180 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs Black | — | 176 | 156 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 63 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 173 | 259 | 282 | 541 | 109 | 250 | 36 | 10 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs | — | 224 | 200 | 40 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 69 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 200 | 269 | 280 | 549 | 80 | 285 | 31 | 8 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 409 | 366 | 60 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 145 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 164 | 241 | 216 | 457 | 52 | 252 | 35 | 8 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Hillsboro Hops | — | 58 | 52 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 173 | 259 | 404 | 662 | 231 | 194 | 34 | 10 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 385 | 341 | 68 | 14 | 3 | 9 | 33 | 112 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 199 | 272 | 337 | 609 | 138 | 251 | 29 | 9 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL D-backs Black | — | 184 | 158 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 67 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 95 | 219 | 127 | 345 | 32 | 154 | 36 | 13 | 180 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL D-backs Black | — | 184 | 151 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 54 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 179 | 322 | 265 | 587 | 86 | 260 | 29 | 17 | 281 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs Black | — | 176 | 156 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 63 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 173 | 259 | 282 | 541 | 109 | 261 | 36 | 10 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | ACL D-backs Black | — | 176 | 146 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 27 | 45 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 253 | 374 | 404 | 778 | 151 | 333 | 26 | 15 | 349 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs | — | 224 | 200 | 40 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 69 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 200 | 269 | 280 | 549 | 80 | 296 | 31 | 8 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK RAW | ACL D-backs | — | 224 | 186 | 56 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 32 | 46 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 301 | 406 | 435 | 842 | 134 | 389 | 21 | 14 | 370 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 409 | 366 | 60 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 145 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 164 | 241 | 216 | 457 | 52 | 263 | 35 | 8 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A RAW | Visalia Rawhide | — | 409 | 352 | 76 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 46 | 105 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 216 | 315 | 290 | 605 | 74 | 297 | 26 | 11 | 280 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 443 | 393 | 77 | 17 | 3 | 12 | 39 | 132 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 196 | 270 | 346 | 616 | 150 | 255 | 30 | 9 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 443 | 376 | 93 | 22 | 4 | 15 | 56 | 97 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 247 | 346 | 447 | 793 | 199 | 289 | 22 | 13 | 345 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL D-backs Black | — | 184 | 157 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 67 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 96 | 219 | 127 | 346 | 32 | 158 | 36 | 13 | 180 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs Black | — | 176 | 156 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 63 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 173 | 259 | 282 | 541 | 109 | 250 | 36 | 10 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs | — | 224 | 203 | 40 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 69 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 197 | 269 | 276 | 545 | 79 | 285 | 31 | 8 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 409 | 369 | 60 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 145 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 163 | 241 | 214 | 455 | 51 | 252 | 35 | 8 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 443 | 400 | 77 | 17 | 3 | 12 | 39 | 132 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 193 | 270 | 340 | 610 | 148 | 244 | 30 | 9 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs | — | 224 | 203 | 40 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 69 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 197 | 269 | 276 | 545 | 79 | 285 | 31 | 8 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 409 | 369 | 60 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 145 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 163 | 241 | 214 | 455 | 51 | 252 | 35 | 8 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 443 | 400 | 77 | 17 | 3 | 12 | 39 | 132 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 193 | 270 | 340 | 610 | 148 | 244 | 30 | 9 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | ARI | 0% | 553 | 499 | 97 | 21 | 4 | 9 | 46 | 161 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 192 | 265 | 302 | 567 | 110 | 260 | 29 | 8 | 257 | 60 | -26 | +1 | +0 | +6 | +12 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | ARI | 34% | 393 | 355 | 70 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 33 | 111 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 198 | 271 | 317 | 588 | 119 | 263 | 28 | 8 | 266 | 66 | -16 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +9 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | ARI | 46% | 441 | 397 | 81 | 17 | 3 | 9 | 38 | 123 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 202 | 276 | 327 | 603 | 125 | 265 | 28 | 9 | 272 | 70 | -16 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +10 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | ARI | 52% | 489 | 441 | 91 | 19 | 3 | 11 | 42 | 134 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 205 | 279 | 333 | 612 | 128 | 266 | 27 | 9 | 276 | 73 | -16 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +11 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | ARI | 54% | 507 | 455 | 94 | 19 | 3 | 11 | 44 | 138 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 207 | 281 | 337 | 618 | 130 | 268 | 27 | 9 | 278 | 74 | -15 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +11 | 0.2 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | ARI | 54% | 511 | 459 | 95 | 20 | 3 | 11 | 44 | 138 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 208 | 282 | 338 | 620 | 130 | 268 | 27 | 9 | 279 | 75 | -15 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +11 | 0.2 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | ARI | 54% | 506 | 454 | 94 | 19 | 3 | 11 | 44 | 138 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 206 | 280 | 333 | 614 | 127 | 268 | 27 | 9 | 277 | 73 | -16 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +11 | 0.0 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | ARI | 53% | 496 | 447 | 91 | 19 | 3 | 10 | 43 | 137 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 204 | 278 | 328 | 605 | 124 | 266 | 28 | 9 | 273 | 71 | -17 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +11 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB MLE | ARI | 52% | 485 | 438 | 89 | 18 | 3 | 10 | 41 | 135 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 201 | 274 | 320 | 595 | 119 | 265 | 28 | 8 | 269 | 68 | -18 | +0 | -2 | +5 | +11 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | ARI | 34% | 135 | 122 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 38 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 204 | 277 | 329 | 606 | 124 | 273 | 28 | 8 | 273 | 66 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | ARI | 46% | 203 | 183 | 39 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 56 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 209 | 282 | 338 | 620 | 130 | 276 | 28 | 8 | 279 | 70 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | ARI | 52% | 253 | 227 | 48 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 69 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 211 | 285 | 344 | 629 | 133 | 277 | 27 | 9 | 282 | 73 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | ARI | 54% | 275 | 247 | 53 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 75 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 213 | 287 | 348 | 634 | 134 | 278 | 27 | 9 | 285 | 74 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | ARI | 54% | 277 | 249 | 53 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 75 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 214 | 288 | 349 | 637 | 134 | 279 | 27 | 9 | 286 | 75 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | ARI | 54% | 275 | 247 | 53 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 75 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 212 | 286 | 344 | 630 | 132 | 278 | 27 | 9 | 283 | 73 | -9 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +6 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | ARI | 53% | 263 | 237 | 50 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 73 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 210 | 283 | 338 | 622 | 128 | 277 | 28 | 9 | 280 | 71 | -9 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB CTX | ARI | 52% | 254 | 229 | 48 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 71 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 207 | 280 | 331 | 611 | 124 | 275 | 28 | 9 | 275 | 68 | -10 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1935 | 1741 | 369 | 84 | 15 | 39 | 167 | 532 | 12 | 24 | 8 | 212 | 285 | 345 | 630 | 133 | 280 | 27 | 9 | 281 | 64 | -65 | +2 | -2 | +21 | +42 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 585 | 124 | 28 | 5 | 13 | 56 | 179 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 212 | 285 | 344 | 629 | 132 | 280 | 28 | 9 | 281 | 64 | -22 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | -0.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5474 | 4908 | 960 | 201 | 34 | 100 | 477 | 1591 | 33 | 96 | 36 | 196 | 271 | 312 | 583 | 116 | 264 | 29 | 9 | 262 | 64 | -139 | +4 | -4 | +43 | +87 | -1.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 583 | 114 | 24 | 4 | 12 | 57 | 189 | 4 | 11 | 4 | 196 | 272 | 312 | 584 | 117 | 264 | 29 | 9 | 262 | 64 | -22 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | -0.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AVisalia Rawhide · 385 PAwOBA .337 → .265 (−72)K% 21.3% → 29.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.30% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 28.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.47% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | — | 8.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.26% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | — | 17.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | — | 5.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | — | 1.42% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.51% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | — | 3.61% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .337 → .265; ISO .181 → .143; BABIP .297 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Hillsboro Hops · 58 PAwOBA .365 → .279 (−86)K% 25.9% → 34.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.86% | ÷1.000 | ×1.350 | — | — | 34.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.79% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 9.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 8.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.012 | 7.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.012 | 9.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.012 | 9.60% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .365 → .279; ISO .320 → .246; BABIP .226 → .194. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AVisalia Rawhide · 409 PAwOBA .276 → .207 (−69)K% 25.7% → 35.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.67% | ÷0.983 | ×1.360 | — | — | 35.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.25% | ÷1.012 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 7.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.22% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.67% | ÷1.027 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 19.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.48% | ÷1.005 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 5.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.81% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 0.79% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.81% | ÷1.283 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.51% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 157, 1B 105, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 97, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .276 → .207; ISO .074 → .054; BABIP .297 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL D-backs · 224 PAwOBA .368 → .246 (−122)K% 20.5% → 30.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.54% | ÷0.965 | ×1.440 | — | — | 30.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.069 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 8.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.45% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.71% | ÷1.009 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 19.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.71% | ÷1.031 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 7.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.57% | ÷0.984 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 2.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.875 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 102, 2B 106, 3B 97, K 93, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .368 → .246; ISO .134 → .088; BABIP .389 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL D-backs Black · 176 PAwOBA .345 → .237 (−108)K% 25.6% → 35.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.57% | ÷1.030 | ×1.440 | — | — | 35.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.34% | ÷1.001 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 9.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.57% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.76% | ÷1.073 | ×0.820 | ×0.990 | ×1.008 | 18.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.92% | ÷0.966 | ×0.720 | ×0.990 | ×1.008 | 5.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.99% | ÷0.950 | ×0.720 | ×0.990 | ×1.008 | 0.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.96% | ÷1.038 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 3.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 115, 2B 93, 3B 90, K 106, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .345 → .237; ISO .151 → .107; BABIP .333 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL D-backs Black · 184 PAwOBA .277 → .180 (−97)K% 29.3% → 36.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.35% | ÷0.978 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.85% | ÷0.927 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 12.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.54% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 0.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.59% | ÷1.014 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 12.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.15% | ÷1.104 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 2.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.03% | ÷1.150 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 0.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.06% | ÷0.896 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 1.09% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 103, 2B 121, 3B 130, K 96, BB 85 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .277 → .180; ISO .086 → .043; BABIP .260 → .158. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).