Justin Stransky — OGILVIE

Justin StranskyC South Bend Cubs

Age 23 R/R 6'1" / 180 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION212 act + 141 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†67

AVG/OBP/SLG.199 / .285 / .295

PA141

HR2

K%24

BB%9

BABIP255

ISO96

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 51 / POW 42

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT51

scouting grade only

POWER42

scouting grade only

EYE58

scouting grade only

SPEED56

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Arb-1	$1M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Arb-2	$1M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.4M
2035	Arb-3	$7M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$16M	+$14M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	22	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	51	46	6	1	0	0	3	19	0	2	0	130	184	152	336	22	207	37	6	163	-17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	51	43	7	1	0	0	6	12	0	2	0	163	265	186	451	23	212	24	12	214	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	A+	CHC	—	212	183	29	4	1	3	21	45	5	7	0	158	263	240	504	82	188	21	10	238	40	-14	+1	+0	+4	+6	-0.3
YTD	23	A+	CHC	—	212	173	33	5	1	4	31	33	5	7	0	191	330	301	631	110	209	16	15	295	84	-4	+1	+0	+4	+6	0.7
ROS	23	A+	CHC	0%	141	125	25	4	1	2	13	34	2	3	0	199	285	295	580	96	254	24	9	272	67	-5	+1	+0	+3	+4	0.2
ROS	23	MLB	CHC	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						255	0	0	262	59	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	23	A+	CHC	—	213	184	29	4	1	3	21	45	5	7	0	158	262	239	501	82	187	21	10	238	40	-14	+1	+0	+4	+6	-0.3
TOT	23	A+	CHC	—	353	308	54	8	2	5	34	79	7	10	0	175	272	263	535	88	215	22	10	252	51	-20	+2	+0	+6	+10	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	CHC	38%	287	255	54	9	2	6	26	68	4	6	1	212	295	333	628	122	260	24	9	281	73	-9	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.5
2028	25	MLB	CHC	55%	353	313	67	12	2	7	32	83	5	8	1	214	297	332	629	118	263	24	9	285	76	-9	+1	+0	+6	+10	0.8
2029	26	MLB	CHC	64%	395	351	75	13	2	9	36	92	5	9	1	214	296	339	635	125	264	23	9	288	78	-10	+1	+0	+7	+11	1.0
2030	27	MLB	CHC	66%	411	365	78	14	2	9	38	96	5	9	1	214	297	337	634	123	265	23	9	289	79	-10	+1	+0	+7	+12	1.1
2031	28	MLB	CHC	67%	418	370	79	14	2	9	39	99	6	9	1	214	299	335	634	122	264	24	9	288	78	-10	+1	-1	+7	+12	1.0
2032	29	MLB	CHC	66%	415	369	79	14	2	9	38	99	5	9	1	214	296	336	632	122	264	24	9	286	77	-11	+1	-1	+7	+12	0.8
2033	30	MLB	CHC	65%	411	365	77	14	2	8	38	99	5	8	1	211	294	326	620	115	262	24	9	283	75	-12	+1	-2	+7	+12	0.6
2034	31	MLB	CHC	65%	387	343	72	13	2	8	36	94	5	8	1	210	294	329	624	120	260	24	9	279	72	-12	+1	-3	+7	+11	0.4
2035	32	MLB	CHC	65%	358	317	65	11	2	7	33	89	5	7	1	205	290	319	609	114	257	25	9	273	67	-13	+1	-4	+6	+10	0.1
2036	33	MLB	CHC	64%	320	284	56	9	1	6	29	81	4	6	1	197	281	299	580	102	253	25	9	267	62	-14	+1	-4	+6	+9	-0.2
2027	24	MLB	CHC	38%	109	97	21	4	1	2	10	26	1	2	0	216	296	340	637	124	262	24	9	272	67	-4	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2028	25	MLB	CHC	55%	196	173	37	7	1	4	18	46	3	4	1	214	299	335	634	121	264	23	9	277	70	-7	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.3
2029	26	MLB	CHC	64%	251	223	48	9	1	5	23	59	3	6	1	215	297	332	629	117	266	24	9	279	72	-8	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.4
2030	27	MLB	CHC	66%	270	239	51	9	1	6	25	63	4	6	1	213	299	335	633	121	266	23	9	280	73	-8	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.5
2031	28	MLB	CHC	67%	279	247	53	10	1	6	26	66	4	6	1	215	300	336	636	121	266	24	9	279	72	-9	+1	-0	+5	+8	0.4
2032	29	MLB	CHC	66%	273	242	51	9	1	6	25	65	4	6	1	211	295	331	626	120	265	24	9	277	70	-9	+1	-1	+5	+8	0.3
2033	30	MLB	CHC	65%	268	238	51	9	1	6	25	64	3	5	1	214	297	336	633	122	263	24	9	275	68	-10	+1	-1	+5	+8	0.2
2034	31	MLB	CHC	65%	251	223	46	8	1	5	23	61	3	5	1	206	289	318	608	112	261	24	9	271	65	-10	+1	-2	+4	+7	0.1
2035	32	MLB	CHC	65%	231	205	41	7	1	4	21	57	3	4	1	200	284	302	586	102	258	25	9	265	61	-10	+0	-2	+4	+7	-0.1
2036	33	MLB	CHC	64%	206	182	37	6	1	4	19	52	3	4	1	203	289	313	602	110	254	25	9	259	56	-10	+0	-3	+4	+6	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2335	2070	436	78	10	48	215	559	31	48	9	211	294	328	622	117	263	24	9	274	68	-85	+6	-10	+42	+66	2.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	576	122	22	3	13	60	156	9	13	3	212	297	328	625	116	266	24	9	274	68	-24	+1	-3	+12	+18	0.5
Career	—			—	3947	3503	733	128	20	80	361	953	51	84	10	209	292	326	618	116	262	24	9	280	73	-122	+13	-15	+70	+112	6.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	577	120	21	3	13	59	157	8	14	2	208	290	322	613	114	260	24	9	280	73	-20	+2	-2	+12	+18	1.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	22	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	51	43	7	1	0	0	6	12	0	2	0	163	265	186	451	23	212	24	12	214	22	-5	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Brendan Ryanlast yr '15 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,872 PA	9	2,872	19	67	234	295	315	+30	+85	10.6	11.0
	/162	664	4	15	234	295	315	+6.9	+19.7	2.5	pk7: 11
#4Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#5Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#5Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	2,335	48	49	211	291	329	+42	+24	4.3	4.1
	/162	664	14	14	211	291	329	+11.9	+6.8	1.2	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Justin Stransky (OGILVIE)	23	46→51	37→42	51→56	58	175/272/263	88	215	5	10	22%	10%	51	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Juan Mora 2022 · A	22	47	44→45	55	46	225/302/347	122	301	11	14	27%	8%	83	+0.6	226/284/337	111	307	10	9	28%	5%	73	-0.1	224/280/333	110	298	10	8	27%	5%	68	-0.2
✕Nevin Ashley 2008 · A	23	50→51	44→45	52→45	44	242/300/360	118	318	11	12	27%	7%	85	+0.7	216/288/307	91	300	7	8	28%	7%	67	-0.5	229/298/348	120	295	11	4	25%	7%	79	+0.1
✕Alex Isola 2021 · A	23	46→45	45→50	49→40	44	227/279/348	122	288	12	8	26%	6%	74	-0.1	217/284/369	152	276	20	4	28%	8%	82	+0.5	213/284/361	148	267	20	2	27%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Corey Toups 2016 · A	23	49	41→45	56→50	45	232/292/338	106	306	6	17	25%	7%	76	+0.0	212/271/329	117	302	10	16	31%	6%	66	-0.6	199/260/315	116	290	10	16	33%	6%	55	-1.0
✕Chase d'Arnaud 2010 · A	23	49→50	42→45	55→60	48	235/310/354	119	288	8	19	20%	7%	89	+0.9	224/283/334	110	283	7	27	22%	6%	72	-0.2	234/297/356	122	296	11	26	24%	7%	80	+0.2
✕Miguel Amaya 2022 · AA	23	44→42	44→50	50→40	49	214/303/331	117	278	11	7	26%	9%	81	+0.4	223/308/361	138	300	15	5	29%	8%	91	+1.1	228/299/368	140	271	16	1	22%	7%	86	+0.3
✕Carter Jurica 2012 · A	23	44→54	42→40	48→45	47	211/291/317	106	283	9	11	27%	8%	72	-0.2	233/293/319	86	310	6	6	25%	7%	72	-0.2	238/298/316	77	315	5	4	24%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Leo Jiménez 2023 · A	22	47→49	41→45	49→45	50	221/327/317	97	287	8	9	24%	9%	88	+0.9	227/313/341	114	287	11	7	24%	7%	88	+0.9	227/317/342	114	286	11	5	23%	7%	86	+0.4
✕Freddy Zamora 2022 · A	23	50→51	40	46→50	49	237/311/326	90	314	7	9	26%	9%	82	+0.5	219/289/306	87	305	7	13	28%	8%	67	-0.5	216/292/293	76	294	6	16	26%	8%	62	-0.6
✕Chuckie Robinson 2018 · A	23	45→55	45	50→45	40	222/265/349	127	284	11	6	26%	5%	67	-0.5	195/239/300	105	282	10	8	33%	5%	43	-2.2	236/291/360	124	294	15	7	24%	6%	78	+0.1
✕Daniel Lyons 2009 · A	24	48	41→45	50	49	226/308/329	103	289	7	13	23%	8%	82	+0.5	199/287/281	82	268	5	14	25%	9%	61	-1.0	166/266/225	59	229	3	15	26%	10%	37	-1.2
✕Paul Janish 2006 · A	23	44→54	43→45	49→45	47	218/283/331	113	265	10	8	22%	7%	71	-0.3	232/292/340	108	272	10	7	18%	7%	77	+0.1	227/288/327	101	268	9	6	18%	6%	70	-0.3
✕P.J. Higgins 2016 · A	23	44→54	42→45	54→40	42	215/263/322	108	284	8	8	27%	6%	59	-1.1	228/299/300	72	289	3	4	20%	8%	69	-0.4	239/302/362	123	304	13	3	24%	8%	85	+0.5
✕Marco Hernandez 2021 · A	23	46	39→40	49→45	47	220/285/308	87	282	6	8	23%	7%	66	-0.6	203/292/299	96	283	8	4	29%	9%	68	-0.5	162/268/244	82	214	10	0	27%	10%	41	-0.6
✕Jeferson Morales 2022 · A	23	41→45	48→50	48→50	48	211/295/361	150	263	15	9	26%	8%	85	+0.7	204/282/341	137	270	14	9	29%	7%	74	-0.1	221/296/357	136	275	13	8	23%	7%	81	+0.2
✕Tony Delmonico 2011 · A	24	48	43→45	50→40	47	234/312/345	111	301	11	6	25%	8%	88	+0.9	220/310/331	111	307	10	4	29%	9%	84	+0.6	217/318/341	124	297	13	1	29%	9%	88	+0.7
✕Noah Cardenas 2023 · A	23	49→48	45→40	47→45	55	232/344/365	133	305	12	9	25%	12%	107	+2.2	203/306/307	104	284	9	8	29%	11%	76	+0.1	181/288/277	96	253	9	6	29%	11%	58	-0.6
✕Michael Guldberg 2022 · A	23	45	44→45	55	45	223/293/342	119	282	12	16	24%	7%	79	+0.3	210/268/294	84	282	6	12	26%	6%	55	-1.4	194/247/254	61	264	3	10	27%	6%	33	-0.8
✕Tyler Smith 2014 · A	23	49→54	39→40	50	44	230/289/323	93	288	5	11	21%	6%	71	-0.3	238/302/328	90	309	6	9	23%	8%	78	+0.2	241/302/328	87	309	6	8	23%	7%	74	-0.1
✕Jack Marder 2013 · A	23	51	44→45	51→50	42	250/307/371	121	303	11	16	21%	5%	92	+1.2	221/281/323	102	275	9	10	22%	5%	69	-0.4	207/269/300	93	257	9	8	22%	5%	55	-0.7