Justin Stransky

C South Bend Cubs
Age 24 R/R 6'1" / 180 lbs A+ HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
Overview
A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037
OGV OFP35OGV rank#761ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202522ACHC51.163/.265/.186021—.133/.204/.156
202623A+CHC312.209/.343/.33161157—.178/.278/.275
2027PROJMLE24MLBCHC1.221/.303/.33300800.0
2028PROJ38% MLB25MLBCHC72.223/.305/.33911820.2
2029PROJ55% MLB26MLBCHC135.224/.305/.34323840.3
Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$0.2M+2
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+
K%90
Whiff%86
Chase%82
BB%76
Z-Con%73
Speed66
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%
CompsTyler Smith (age 24) · Graysen Tarlow (age 23) · Daniel Lyons (age 24)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†80
AVG/OBP/SLG.221 / .303 / .333
PA1
HR0
K%23
BB%9
BABIP279
ISO117
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -3.8 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-4BATRUN: +0.0 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +2.9 runs (Positional adjustment)+3POSREP: +3.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+4REPTotal WAR: +0.40+0.4WAR
0.00.51.00.00.20.30.40.40.30.20.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$11M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 37
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT50
scouting grade only
POWER37
scouting grade only
EYE54
scouting grade only
SPEED51
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2031
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2036
First FA Year   2037
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.4$1M+$0.6M
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.3$0.8M+$0.3M
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.2$0.5M+$0.0M
2034Arb-1$0.2M———
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $3M $3M +$0.9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202522 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 5143 7100 6120 20 163265186451 23212 2412 214 1 — — — — — —
202623 A+South Bend Cubs — 312254 531116 46506 111 209343331674 122230 1615 309 57 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202522 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 5145 6100 4170 20 133204156360 22193 338 170 1 — — — — — —
202623 A+ MLESouth Bend Cubs — 312269 48915 31646 111 178278275553 97202 2110 252 57 — — — — — —
202522 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 5145 6100 4170 20 133204156360 22200 338 170 1 — — — — — —
202522 A RAWMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 5143 7100 6120 20 163265186451 23212 2412 214 1 — — — — — —
202623 A+ MLESouth Bend Cubs — 312269 48915 31646 111 178278275553 97209 2110 252 57 — — — — — —
202623 A+ RAWSouth Bend Cubs — 312254 531116 46506 111 209343331674 122230 1615 309 57 — — — — — —
202522 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 5147 6100 4170 20 128204149353 21193 338 170 1 — — — — — —
202623 A+ MLESouth Bend Cubs — 312272 48915 31646 111 176278272550 96202 2110 252 57 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202522 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 5147 6100 4170 20 128204149353 21193 338 170 1 — — — — — —
202623 A+ MLESouth Bend Cubs — 312272 48915 31646 111 176278272550 96202 2110 252 57 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202724 MLB MLECHC 0% 362322 711426 33854 72 219301330631 111276 239 287 80 -8 +1 +0 +6 +8 0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202724 MLB CTXCHC 0% 11 0000 000 00 221303333636 112279 00 289 80 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202825 MLB MLECHC 38% 189168 37713 17442 41 221303337639 116277 239 290 82 -4 +0 +0 +3 +4 0.4
202926 MLB MLECHC 55% 244216 48915 23573 51 222304340644 118278 239 292 84 -5 +1 +0 +4 +5 0.6
203027 MLB MLECHC 61% 278247 551115 26653 51 222304341645 119278 239 292 84 -5 +1 +0 +5 +6 0.6
203128 MLB MLECHC 65% 297265 581116 27703 51 222302340642 118277 249 291 83 -6 +1 -1 +5 +6 0.6
203229 MLB MLECHC 64% 301268 591116 27723 51 220300337637 117277 249 289 82 -7 +1 -1 +5 +7 0.5
203330 MLB MLECHC 64% 301268 571115 27733 41 217297329626 112275 249 284 78 -8 +0 -2 +5 +7 0.3
203431 MLB MLECHC 64% 274245 521015 24673 32 213292319611 106272 249 278 74 -8 -0 -3 +5 +6 -0.1
202825 MLB CTXCHC 38% 7264 14301 7171 10 223305339644 116280 2410 292 82 -2 +0 +0 +1 +2 0.2
202926 MLB CTXCHC 55% 135120 26512 12322 31 224305343648 119281 249 293 84 -3 +0 +0 +2 +3 0.3
203027 MLB CTXCHC 61% 171151 34713 16402 31 224305344649 120281 239 294 84 -3 +0 +0 +3 +4 0.4
203128 MLB CTXCHC 65% 192170 39814 18452 31 223304342646 119281 239 292 83 -4 +0 -0 +3 +4 0.4
203229 MLB CTXCHC 64% 194172 39814 18462 31 222302339641 117280 249 290 82 -4 +0 -1 +3 +4 0.3
203330 MLB CTXCHC 64% 194172 37713 18472 31 219298331629 112278 249 286 78 -5 +0 -1 +3 +4 0.2
203431 MLB CTXCHC 64% 176156 34713 16432 21 215293321614 107274 249 279 74 -5 +0 -2 +3 +4 -0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 11341005 22345620 10527013 186 222304338642 116282 249 289 76 -26 +1 -5 +20 +25 1.6
/ 162G— A+C — 650576 12726311 601557 103 220301333635 113281 249 289 76 -15 +1 -3 +12 +14 0.9
Career— MLE — 24102136 45286943 22156728 4710 212294321615 109265 249 281 76 -47 +3 -7 +37 +44 3.1
/ 162G— MLE — 650576 12223212 601538 133 212295321617 109264 249 281 76 -15 +1 -2 +12 +14 1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+South Bend Cubs · 312 PAwOBA .305 → .252 (−53)K% 16.0% → 20.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.03%÷1.000×1.270——20.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.10%÷1.000×0.710—×0.9889.89%
HBP% /PA1.92%—×0.790—×0.9881.50%
Singles /BIP17.16%÷1.000×0.920×1.000×0.98815.60%
Doubles /BIP5.39%÷1.000×0.810×1.000×0.9884.32%
Triples /BIP0.49%÷1.000×0.850×1.000×0.9880.41%
Home runs /BIP2.94%÷1.000×0.800—×0.9882.32%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.

Result: wOBA .305 → .252; ISO .122 → .102; BABIP .230 → .202. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 51 PAwOBA .218 → .170 (−48)K% 23.5% → 33.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.53%÷0.956×1.360——33.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.76%÷1.106×0.690—×0.9907.27%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.780—×0.9900.00%
Singles /BIP19.35%÷0.990×0.920—×0.99017.82%
Doubles /BIP3.23%÷0.968×0.830—×0.9902.74%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.910—×0.9900.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.925×0.800—×0.9900.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 98, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 91, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .218 → .170; ISO .023 → .019; BABIP .212 → .193. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).