Justin Stransky — OGILVIE

Justin StranskyC South Bend Cubs

Age 23 R/R 6'1" / 180 lbs A+ HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION312 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†76

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%22

BB%11

BABIP258

ISO121

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$21M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 52 / POW 42

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT52

scouting grade only

POWER42

scouting grade only

EYE59

scouting grade only

SPEED56

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.1M
2034	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$5M		$6M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	22	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	51	43	7	1	0	0	6	12	0	2	0	163	265	186	451	23	212	24	12	214	31	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	51	46	6	1	0	0	3	18	0	2	0	130	184	152	336	22	198	35	6	167	-1	-6	+0	—	—	+1	-0.5
2025	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	51	46	6	1	0	0	3	18	0	2	0	130	184	152	336	22	200	35	6	167	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	51	43	7	1	0	0	6	12	0	2	0	163	265	186	451	23	212	24	12	214	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	51	48	6	1	0	0	3	18	0	2	0	125	184	146	330	21	198	35	6	167	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	51	48	6	1	0	0	3	18	0	2	0	125	184	146	330	21	198	35	6	167	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	CHC	—	312	269	48	9	1	5	31	67	6	11	1	178	278	275	553	97	212	21	10	253	57	-16	+2	+0	+6	+7	-0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ RAW	CHC	—	312	254	53	11	1	6	46	50	6	11	1	209	343	331	674	122	230	16	15	309	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	23	A+ MLE	CHC	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		256	22	11	280	76	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	23	A+ MLE	CHC	—	321	277	49	9	1	5	32	69	6	11	1	177	276	271	547	94	211	21	10	254	58	-16	+2	+0	+6	+7	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CHC	38%	281	248	53	10	1	6	27	64	4	6	1	214	301	335	636	121	261	23	10	287	80	-7	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.5
2028	25	MLB MLE	CHC	55%	349	308	67	13	2	7	33	79	5	8	1	218	303	341	644	123	263	23	9	291	83	-7	+1	+0	+6	+8	0.8
2029	26	MLB MLE	CHC	64%	392	347	76	15	2	9	37	88	5	9	1	219	303	352	655	133	264	22	9	293	85	-7	+1	+0	+7	+8	1.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	CHC	66%	409	362	79	15	2	9	39	92	5	9	2	218	303	345	648	127	265	22	10	294	85	-7	+1	+0	+7	+9	1.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	CHC	67%	417	369	79	15	2	9	40	95	5	9	2	214	300	339	638	125	264	23	10	293	85	-8	+1	-1	+7	+9	0.9
2032	29	MLB MLE	CHC	66%	414	366	79	15	2	9	40	95	5	9	1	216	302	342	643	126	263	23	10	291	83	-8	+1	-1	+7	+9	0.8
2033	30	MLB MLE	CHC	65%	410	362	78	15	2	9	40	95	5	8	1	215	302	343	645	127	262	23	10	289	81	-9	+1	-2	+7	+9	0.6
2034	31	MLB MLE	CHC	65%	386	340	72	14	1	8	38	91	5	8	1	212	300	329	630	118	260	24	10	284	79	-10	+1	-3	+7	+8	0.4
2035	32	MLB MLE	CHC	65%	358	316	65	12	1	7	35	85	4	7	1	206	293	316	609	111	257	24	10	279	75	-11	+1	-4	+6	+8	0.1
2036	33	MLB MLE	CHC	64%	320	282	56	10	1	6	31	78	4	6	1	199	287	305	592	106	252	24	10	272	70	-11	+1	-4	+6	+7	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	CHC	38%	107	95	21	4	1	2	10	24	1	2	0	221	302	347	649	126	262	22	9	278	80	-3	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	CHC	55%	194	171	37	7	1	4	18	44	3	4	1	216	302	339	641	123	265	23	9	282	83	-4	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	CHC	64%	250	221	47	9	1	5	24	56	3	6	1	213	298	330	629	118	266	22	10	284	85	-5	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.6
2030	27	MLB CTX	CHC	66%	269	238	52	10	1	6	26	61	3	6	1	218	303	345	648	126	267	23	10	285	85	-5	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.7
2031	28	MLB CTX	CHC	67%	278	245	53	10	1	6	27	63	4	6	1	216	304	339	643	122	266	23	10	284	85	-5	+1	-0	+5	+6	0.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	CHC	66%	272	241	52	10	1	6	26	62	3	6	1	216	300	340	640	124	265	23	10	282	83	-5	+1	-1	+5	+6	0.5
2033	30	MLB CTX	CHC	65%	267	236	50	10	1	5	26	62	3	5	1	212	298	326	624	114	264	23	10	279	81	-6	+1	-1	+5	+6	0.4
2034	31	MLB CTX	CHC	65%	250	221	47	9	1	5	24	59	3	5	1	213	298	330	629	118	261	24	10	275	79	-6	+1	-2	+4	+5	0.2
2035	32	MLB CTX	CHC	65%	231	204	42	8	1	4	22	55	3	4	1	206	293	314	606	108	258	24	10	270	75	-7	+0	-2	+4	+5	0.0
2036	33	MLB CTX	CHC	64%	206	182	37	7	1	4	20	50	2	4	1	203	289	319	608	115	254	24	10	263	70	-7	+0	-3	+4	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2324	2054	438	84	10	47	223	536	28	48	9	213	299	333	631	119	264	23	10	279	80	-53	+6	-10	+42	+50	3.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	574	122	23	3	13	62	150	8	13	3	213	298	331	629	118	263	23	10	279	80	-15	+2	-3	+12	+14	1.0
Career	—	MLE		—	3796	3354	711	135	16	79	364	882	47	81	12	212	298	332	630	120	262	23	10	286	80	-85	+11	-15	+67	+81	6.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	574	122	23	3	14	62	151	8	14	2	213	298	336	634	124	262	23	10	286	80	-15	+2	-3	+12	+14	1.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#3Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#4Brendan Ryanlast yr '15 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,872 PA	4.3	2,872	19	67	234	295	315	+30	+85	10.6	11.0
/162	664	4	15	+6.9	+19.7	2.4	pk7: 11
#5Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.5	2,324	48	48	214	297	335	+42	+24	5.7	5.3
/162	664	14	14	+11.9	+6.9	1.6	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Justin Stransky (OGILVIE)	23	47→52	37→42	51→56	59	205/293/315	110	256	2	3	23%	10%	76	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jeferson Morales 2022 · A	23	41→48	47→45	48→50	48	209/292/350	141	261	14	9	25%	8%	83	+0.1	204/281/333	129	269	13	9	28%	7%	75	-0.5	221/295/347	125	275	11	8	22%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Leo Jiménez 2023 · A	22	46→49	40→45	48→45	49	216/322/312	96	283	8	9	24%	9%	86	+0.3	226/314/335	109	285	10	7	23%	7%	88	+0.4	228/319/335	107	286	10	5	22%	7%	87	+0.2
✕José Caballero 2019 · A	22	48→46	43→45	47→70	45	232/293/349	117	280	10	9	21%	6%	82	-0.0	219/293/329	110	283	9	26	25%	8%	78	-0.3	225/318/339	113	300	10	63	26%	9%	88	+0.3
✕Noah Cardenas 2023 · A	23	48→46	45	46→45	56	228/342/357	129	298	12	9	25%	12%	103	+1.6	204/305/305	101	280	8	8	28%	11%	78	-0.3	184/290/277	92	253	8	6	28%	11%	63	-0.7
✕Chase d'Arnaud 2010 · A	23	49→50	42→45	55→60	48	235/310/354	119	288	8	19	20%	7%	90	+0.6	222/281/326	104	280	6	27	22%	6%	72	-0.7	230/293/350	120	293	11	26	24%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Tony Delmonico 2011 · A	24	48	43→45	50→40	48	234/313/340	107	300	10	6	24%	8%	88	+0.5	220/309/329	109	304	10	4	29%	9%	84	+0.2	217/314/341	124	292	13	1	28%	9%	88	+0.4
✕Juan Mora 2022 · A	22	46	44→45	55	46	225/303/346	121	300	11	14	27%	8%	86	+0.3	225/283/333	108	304	9	9	28%	5%	75	-0.5	222/278/328	106	295	10	8	27%	5%	70	-0.4
✕Corey Toups 2016 · A	23	49→50	41→45	56→50	46	235/295/344	109	306	7	17	25%	7%	81	-0.1	216/276/329	113	308	9	16	31%	6%	71	-0.8	204/268/315	111	299	9	16	33%	6%	62	-1.0
✕Nevin Ashley 2008 · A	23	50→51	44→45	52→45	44	242/300/360	118	318	11	12	27%	7%	87	+0.4	217/290/308	91	298	7	8	28%	8%	72	-0.7	225/295/333	108	291	10	4	25%	7%	77	-0.2
✕Brad Emaus 2009 · A	23	52→54	45	48→50	52	254/314/386	132	285	11	9	15%	8%	98	+1.2	235/300/357	122	268	11	9	16%	8%	86	+0.3	229/299/351	122	258	12	9	16%	8%	83	+0.1
✕Alex Isola 2021 · A	23	46→45	45→50	49→40	44	227/279/349	122	287	12	8	25%	6%	76	-0.4	217/284/360	143	275	18	4	27%	8%	82	-0.0	214/284/354	140	266	19	2	26%	8%	78	-0.2
✕Jared Triolo 2022 · A	24	50→60	44→45	51→55	42	242/292/364	122	316	12	18	26%	6%	85	+0.2	242/313/351	109	326	9	18	26%	9%	90	+0.6	235/321/349	114	313	11	17	26%	10%	90	+0.5
✕Daniel Lyons 2009 · A	24	48	41→45	50	49	226/308/329	103	289	7	13	23%	8%	84	+0.1	200/286/282	82	269	5	14	25%	9%	65	-1.2	168/264/228	61	231	3	15	26%	10%	44	-1.2
✕Michael Garciaparra 2006 · A	23	52	41→40	45	45	249/316/348	99	315	8	10	23%	7%	91	+0.6	248/314/327	79	315	6	9	22%	7%	84	+0.2	254/320/321	67	322	6	8	21%	6%	83	+0.0
✕Tommy Field 2011 · A	24	47→51	45	50→45	44	229/300/352	123	298	12	10	26%	7%	86	+0.3	228/292/347	119	292	11	8	25%	7%	81	-0.1	221/290/346	125	277	12	7	24%	7%	79	-0.1
✕Eric Fryer 2009 · A	23	53→62	44→45	51→50	44	256/308/380	123	325	10	10	24%	6%	95	+0.9	239/305/351	112	309	9	10	24%	7%	86	+0.3	233/307/341	108	301	9	10	24%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Taylor Featherston 2013 · A	23	47	44→50	51→50	44	227/293/352	125	306	11	11	28%	7%	83	+0.1	223/270/362	139	292	14	12	28%	5%	76	-0.4	216/259/355	139	278	14	12	27%	4%	68	-0.7
✕Jamie Ritchie 2016 · A	23	52→53	39→40	45	57	239/336/330	91	316	6	8	24%	12%	94	+0.9	235/319/321	86	314	6	6	25%	10%	86	+0.3	247/327/340	92	319	6	3	22%	9%	90	+0.3
✕Jack Marder 2013 · A	23	53	46→45	51→50	43	261/317/397	137	311	13	16	20%	5%	102	+1.5	226/287/328	102	277	9	10	21%	5%	76	-0.4	212/276/299	87	260	7	8	21%	5%	63	-0.7
✕Mike Ohlman 2014 · A	23	50→55	43→45	50→40	45	238/303/357	119	330	9	4	29%	8%	87	+0.4	230/285/330	100	308	8	3	26%	7%	74	-0.5	210/274/322	112	299	13	2	32%	8%	67	-0.6

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps