Denton Biller

P Delmarva Shorebirds

Age 22 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	20	ABAL	2	0	6	0.00	3.81	16.7%	16.7%	—	K 16.7% · BB 16.7% · FIP 3.80
2026	21	ABAL	13	10	42	6.43	6.05	14.1%	12.7%	—	K 10.5% · BB 15.0% · FIP 6.90
2027PROJ	22	MLBBAL	5	5	25	5.71	5.71	15.4%	13.9%	-0.2
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBBAL	4	4	19	5.38	5.26	17.8%	12.2%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsDanny Flatt (age 20) · Rubén Menes (age 22) · Luis Mora (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142133vR 125

ERA5.71

FIP5.71

K%15.4%

BB%13.9%

K-BB%1.5%

Proj IP25

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	20	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	2	0	6	24	4	4	0	0%	2.8	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.80	—
2025	20	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	2	0	6	24	4	4	0	0%	2.8	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.80	—
2025	20	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	2	0	6	24	4	4	0	0%	2.8	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.81	—
2026	21	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	13	10	42	205	29	26	8	77%	3.2	10.5%	15.0%	-4.5%	5.1%	6.43	6.90	—
2026	21	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	13	10	42	205	29	26	8	77%	3.2	10.5%	15.0%	-4.5%	5.1%	6.43	6.90	—
2026	21	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	13	10	42	205	29	26	8	77%	3.2	14.1%	12.7%	1.5%	3.9%	6.43	6.05	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	BAL	5	5	25	106	16	15	3	100%	5.0	15.4%	13.9%	1.5%	3.2%	5.71	5.71	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	BAL	7	7	39	166	29	20	5	100%	5.6	17.8%	12.2%	5.5%	3.2%	5.38	5.26	-0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	BAL	4	4	19	80	14	10	3	100%	4.8	17.8%	12.2%	5.5%	3.2%	5.38	5.26	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	19	81	14	10	3	100%	4.8	17.8%	12.2%	5.5%	3.2%	5.38	4.88	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	37	200	844	145	104	31	100%	5.3	17.8%	12.2%	5.5%	3.2%	5.38	4.88	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		15	10	48	229	25	35	10	67%	3.2	11.1%	15.1%	-4.0%	4.5%	5.66	6.57	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	42	200	961	107	146	44	67%	3.2	11.1%	15.1%	-4.0%	4.5%	5.66	6.57	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Denton Biller (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.71	15.4%	13.9%	3.2%	—	5.26	17.8%	5.5%	39	-0.45	—	—	—
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	85
Rubén Menes R 2024 · 5.62 FIP	22	SP-	5.62	15.8%	15.2%	3.5%	.235	4.77	15.6%	2.4%	81	-0.85	3.39	112	85
Luis Mora R 2016 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	16.3%	15.4%	3.8%	.303	5.27	23.9%	1.2%	43	-0.51	3.95	119	84
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	83
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	83
Gavin Floyd R 2005 · 5.53 FIP	22	SP-	5.53	13.4%	11.0%	3.9%	.275	5.01	15.7%	8.1%	331	-0.52	2.95	1,250	81
Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	21	SP-	5.22	13.9%	15.4%	2.5%	.237	4.69	20.8%	6.1%	105	-0.53	3.76	133	81
Luis Ojeda R 2019 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP-	4.94	14.6%	13.4%	2.5%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	131	81
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	81
Luis Mateo R 2015 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP-	5.17	11.4%	14.7%	2.1%	.315	5.67	15.0%	-1.3%	55	+0.50	4.52	112	80
Xavier Altamirano R 2016 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP-	4.72	11.3%	11.0%	2.1%	.333	4.51	14.7%	7.7%	388	-0.21	3.91	451	80
Wellington Caceres R 2018 · 5.73 FIP	22	SP-	5.73	12.0%	11.4%	4.0%	.366	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	121	80
Camilo Sanchez R 2024 · 5.26 FIP	21	SP-	5.26	15.2%	14.0%	3.1%	.289	7.17	13.8%	-0.2%	19	+1.91	3.57	117	80
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	80
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	80
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	80
John Maine R 2005 · 6.04 FIP	24	SP-	6.04	13.0%	13.0%	4.3%	.242	4.20	20.9%	11.4%	421	-1.84	3.91	582	79
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	79
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	79
Tyler McKay R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	21	SP-	5.32	15.1%	10.2%	4.0%	.262	4.64	13.2%	2.2%	106	-0.68	3.10	275	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	32	16.8%	12.9%	1.23	5.51
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57