Mason Estrada

P Ontario Tower Buzzers

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 200 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	ALAD	23	15	76	8.09	5.39	24.9%	18.2%	—	K 18.4% · BB 21.4% · FIP 6.58
2027PROJ	23	MLBLAD	10	10	53	6.11	6.11	19.7%	20.0%	-0.7
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBLAD	5	5	30	5.73	5.59	20.8%	16.8%	-0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBLAD	8	8	47	5.41	5.26	21.4%	14.7%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 92%

CompsWills Montgomerie (age 23) · Zach Linginfelter (age 24) · Fernando Baez (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 149141vR 133

ERA6.11

FIP6.11

K%19.7%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-0.3%

Proj IP53

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	A MLE	Ontario Tower Buzzers	23	15	76	369	92	67	12	65%	3.3	18.4%	21.4%	-3.0%	4.2%	8.09	6.58	—
2026	22	A MLE	Ontario Tower Buzzers	23	15	76	369	92	67	12	65%	3.3	18.4%	21.4%	-3.0%	4.2%	8.09	6.58	—
2026	22	A RAW	Ontario Tower Buzzers	23	15	76	369	92	67	12	65%	3.3	24.9%	18.2%	6.8%	3.3%	8.09	5.39	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	LAD	10	10	53	224	44	45	7	100%	5.3	19.7%	20.0%	-0.3%	3.2%	6.11	6.11	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAD	12	12	70	295	61	50	9	100%	5.8	20.8%	16.8%	4.0%	3.2%	5.73	5.59	-0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAD	12	12	71	299	64	44	9	100%	5.9	21.4%	14.7%	6.6%	3.1%	5.41	5.26	-0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAD	12	12	71	299	65	43	9	100%	5.9	21.7%	14.4%	7.3%	3.1%	5.26	5.19	-0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAD	12	12	70	294	64	42	9	100%	5.8	21.7%	14.3%	7.4%	3.2%	5.22	5.21	-0.2
2032	28	MLB MLE	LAD	11	11	68	285	61	41	9	100%	6.1	21.6%	14.5%	7.1%	3.3%	5.26	5.29	-0.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	LAD	11	11	64	272	58	40	9	100%	5.9	21.3%	14.7%	6.6%	3.4%	5.36	5.42	-0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAD	5	5	30	127	26	21	4	100%	6.0	20.8%	16.8%	4.0%	3.2%	5.73	5.59	-0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	47	198	42	29	6	100%	5.9	21.4%	14.7%	6.6%	3.1%	5.41	5.26	-0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAD	9	9	56	236	51	34	7	100%	6.2	21.7%	14.4%	7.3%	3.1%	5.26	5.19	-0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAD	10	10	59	249	54	36	8	100%	5.9	21.7%	14.3%	7.4%	3.2%	5.22	5.21	-0.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	LAD	10	10	60	253	55	37	8	100%	6.0	21.6%	14.5%	7.1%	3.3%	5.26	5.29	-0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	LAD	10	10	59	249	53	37	9	100%	5.9	21.3%	14.7%	6.6%	3.4%	5.36	5.42	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		52	52	311	1312	281	193	42	100%	6.0	21.5%	14.7%	6.7%	3.2%	5.34	4.93	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	181	124	27	100%	5.9	21.5%	14.7%	6.7%	3.2%	5.34	4.93	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		23	15	76	369	68	79	16	65%	3.3	18.4%	21.4%	-3.0%	4.2%	8.09	6.58	-2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	40	200	975	180	209	41	65%	3.3	18.4%	21.4%	-3.0%	4.2%	8.09	6.58	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason Estrada (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.11	19.7%	20.0%	3.2%	—	5.35	21.3%	6.0%	211	-0.76	—	—	—
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	88
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	88
Fernando Baez R 2015 · 6.56 FIP	23	SP-	6.56	18.6%	18.8%	4.8%	.322	4.51	26.9%	7.8%	94	-2.05	3.45	129	85
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	85
Carlos Marmol R 2006 · 5.89 FIP	23	SP-	5.89	16.6%	16.0%	3.9%	.252	3.03	31.5%	18.0%	231	-2.86	1.59	608	82
R.J. Freure R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	22	SP-	5.13	21.7%	18.5%	2.8%	.286	6.05	21.4%	4.2%	107	+0.92	5.13	196	82
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.48	352	80
Nic Swanson R 2022 · 6.18 FIP	23	SP-	6.18	18.5%	15.9%	4.8%	.302	4.74	18.6%	7.7%	284	-1.44	4.29	438	80
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	79
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	78
Holt Jones R 2022 · 6.63 FIP	23	SP	6.63	17.9%	19.5%	4.7%	.296	4.64	18.4%	0.8%	147	-1.99	4.21	254	78
Jacob Cravey R 2024 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP-	5.15	14.4%	18.0%	1.8%	.333	5.84	14.7%	1.0%	124	+0.69	4.97	208	78
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	77
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	77
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	77
Adrian Chaidez R 2022 · 5.75 FIP	23	SP-	5.75	20.1%	15.0%	4.5%	.281	4.96	19.4%	3.1%	45	-0.79	4.96	144	76
Richard Guasch R 2021 · 5.50 FIP	23	SP-	5.50	20.5%	15.3%	4.0%	.293	4.01	22.5%	6.7%	90	-1.49	2.94	316	76
Rubén Menes R 2024 · 5.62 FIP	22	SP-	5.62	15.8%	15.2%	3.5%	.235	4.77	15.6%	2.4%	81	-0.85	3.39	112	76
Miguel Medrano R 2021 · 5.49 FIP	23	SP-	5.49	17.7%	15.5%	3.5%	.299	6.10	18.1%	-0.5%	50	+0.61	2.73	232	75
Drew Conover R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	23	SW	6.25	15.6%	29.8%	1.3%	.272	5.19	12.6%	-3.4%	106	-1.06	4.49	145	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	67	21.2%	15.5%	1.24	5.46
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*