Diego Contreras

IF ACL Mariners

Age 19 S/R 5'7" / 150 lbs ROK K +7%HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1655ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKSEA	132	.324/.454/.410	0	8	71	—	.216/.331/.261
2026	18	ROKSEA	191	.327/.413/.479	4	9	79	—	.243/.307/.353
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBSEA	301	.221/.290/.314	4	6	72	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBSEA	52	.223/.294/.323	1	1	77	-0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBSEA	124	.226/.298/.333	2	3	81	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Whiff%81

Z-Con%81

wRC+77

wOBA67

ISO66

K%57

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 7.4, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 84%

CompsRamón Flores (age 19) · Noelvi Marte (age 19) · Steward Berroa (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 100 proj PA

wRC+†72

AVG/OBP/SLG.219 / .288 / .312

PA100

HR1

K%26

BB%8

ISO93

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 57 / POW 39

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT57

scouting grade only

POWER39

scouting grade only

EYE58

scouting grade only

SPEED57

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M
2036	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	132	105	34	5	2	0	22	12	3	8	4	324	454	410	863	86	366	9	17	391	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	ACL Mariners	—	191	165	54	11	1	4	22	38	2	9	1	327	413	479	891	152	400	20	12	394	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	132	111	24	3	1	0	16	15	3	8	4	216	331	261	592	45	246	11	12	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	—	191	173	42	8	1	3	14	55	2	9	1	243	307	353	659	110	322	29	7	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	132	111	24	3	1	0	16	15	3	8	4	216	331	261	592	45	250	11	12	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	—	132	105	34	5	2	0	22	12	3	8	4	324	454	410	863	86	366	9	17	391	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	—	191	173	42	8	1	3	14	55	2	9	1	243	307	353	659	110	333	29	7	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	—	191	165	54	11	1	4	22	38	2	9	1	327	413	479	891	152	400	20	12	394	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	132	112	24	3	1	0	16	15	3	8	4	214	331	259	590	45	246	11	12	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	—	191	173	42	8	1	3	14	55	2	9	1	243	307	353	659	110	322	29	7	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	132	112	24	3	1	0	16	15	3	8	4	214	331	259	590	45	246	11	12	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	—	191	173	42	8	1	3	14	55	2	9	1	243	307	353	659	110	322	29	7	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	SEA	0%	301	272	60	10	2	4	23	79	3	6	1	221	290	314	604	93	294	26	8	274	72	-10	+1	+0	+0	+7	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	SEA	34%	151	136	30	5	1	2	12	39	2	3	1	225	295	327	622	102	295	26	8	282	77	-4	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.1
2029	21	MLB MLE	SEA	48%	255	230	52	9	2	4	20	65	3	6	2	228	299	337	637	109	296	25	8	288	81	-6	+0	+0	+0	+6	0.0
2030	22	MLB MLE	SEA	54%	364	328	76	13	3	6	29	91	4	8	2	231	302	345	648	114	297	25	8	292	84	-7	+1	+0	+0	+8	0.2
2031	23	MLB MLE	SEA	57%	436	393	91	16	3	8	35	108	5	10	3	233	305	352	656	119	297	25	8	296	86	-7	+1	+0	+0	+9	0.3
2032	24	MLB MLE	SEA	57%	480	432	101	18	3	9	39	118	6	11	3	234	306	357	663	122	298	25	8	298	88	-7	+1	+0	+0	+10	0.5
2033	25	MLB MLE	SEA	57%	506	454	106	18	3	10	41	124	6	12	3	235	307	357	664	122	298	25	8	299	88	-7	+1	+0	+0	+11	0.5
2034	26	MLB MLE	SEA	56%	521	467	110	19	4	10	43	128	6	12	3	234	307	357	663	122	297	25	8	298	88	-7	+1	+0	+0	+11	0.5
2035	27	MLB MLE	SEA	55%	523	469	110	19	4	10	43	129	6	12	3	233	306	354	660	121	297	25	8	297	87	-8	+1	+0	+0	+11	0.5
2036	28	MLB MLE	SEA	55%	520	466	108	19	3	10	43	130	6	11	3	231	303	349	653	118	296	25	8	294	85	-9	+1	-1	+0	+11	0.2
2037	29	MLB MLE	SEA	53%	509	457	104	18	3	9	42	128	5	10	3	229	301	343	644	114	295	25	8	290	83	-10	+1	-1	+0	+11	-0.0
2028	20	MLB CTX	SEA	34%	52	47	11	2	0	1	4	13	1	1	0	223	294	323	616	100	293	25	8	280	77	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2029	21	MLB CTX	SEA	48%	124	112	25	4	1	2	10	31	1	3	1	226	298	333	630	107	294	25	8	285	81	-3	+0	+0	+0	+3	0.0
2030	22	MLB CTX	SEA	54%	197	177	40	7	1	3	16	49	2	5	1	229	301	341	641	112	294	25	8	290	84	-4	+1	+0	+0	+4	0.1
2031	23	MLB CTX	SEA	57%	247	222	52	9	2	5	20	61	3	6	2	231	303	347	650	116	295	25	8	293	86	-4	+0	+0	+0	+5	0.2
2032	24	MLB CTX	SEA	57%	271	244	57	10	2	5	22	67	3	6	2	232	304	352	656	119	295	25	8	296	88	-4	+0	+0	+0	+6	0.2
2033	25	MLB CTX	SEA	57%	286	258	60	10	2	6	23	70	3	7	2	232	305	352	657	120	295	24	8	296	88	-4	+1	+0	+0	+6	0.3
2034	26	MLB CTX	SEA	56%	294	265	62	11	2	6	24	72	3	7	2	232	304	352	656	120	295	24	8	296	88	-4	+1	+0	+0	+6	0.3
2035	27	MLB CTX	SEA	55%	290	261	60	10	2	6	24	72	3	6	2	231	304	349	653	118	294	25	8	294	87	-4	+0	+0	+0	+6	0.2
2036	28	MLB CTX	SEA	55%	285	257	59	10	2	5	23	71	3	6	2	229	302	345	646	115	293	25	8	292	85	-5	+0	-0	+0	+6	0.1
2037	29	MLB CTX	SEA	53%	272	245	56	9	2	5	22	69	3	5	2	227	299	338	637	111	292	25	8	288	83	-6	+0	-1	+0	+6	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2318	2088	482	82	16	44	188	575	25	52	16	231	302	349	651	118	296	25	8	292	85	-39	+4	-1	+0	+50	1.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	586	134	23	4	12	53	161	7	15	4	229	301	343	644	114	293	25	8	292	85	-11	+1	-0	+0	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	4688	4207	974	168	32	82	385	1156	55	114	31	232	304	345	649	114	298	25	8	293	85	-76	+9	-2	+0	+95	2.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	583	134	23	4	11	53	160	8	16	4	230	302	340	642	110	296	25	8	293	85	-11	+1	-0	+0	+14	0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKACL Mariners · 191 PAwOBA .388 → .285 (−103)K% 19.9% → 28.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.90%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	28.65%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.52%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×1.008	7.19%
HBP% /PA	1.05%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	0.76%
Singles /BIP	29.92%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.011	×1.008	24.99%
Doubles /BIP	8.66%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.011	×1.008	6.35%
Triples /BIP	0.79%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.011	×1.008	0.58%
Home runs /BIP	3.15%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.008	2.48%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.

Result: wOBA .388 → .285; ISO .152 → .110; BABIP .400 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Mariners · 132 PAwOBA .382 → .273 (−110)K% 9.1% → 11.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.09%	÷1.003	×1.220	—	—	11.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.67%	÷0.996	×0.700	—	×1.008	11.81%
HBP% /PA	2.27%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	1.60%
Singles /BIP	29.03%	÷0.986	×0.680	×0.987	×1.008	19.90%
Doubles /BIP	5.38%	÷0.989	×0.600	×0.987	×1.008	3.24%
Triples /BIP	2.15%	÷0.900	×0.600	×0.987	×1.008	1.43%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.936	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 97, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.

Result: wOBA .382 → .273; ISO .086 → .058; BABIP .366 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Damian Jackson'96-'06 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,509 PA	3.8	2,509	32	133	232*	309*	342*	+10	+11	5.7	6.0
/162	664	8	35	+2.5	+3.0	1.5	pk7: 6
#2Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	3.3	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
/162	664	11	16	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#3Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.6	2,419	45	53	233	301	351	+0	+0	3.1	2.9
/162	664	12	15	+0.0	+0.0	0.8	pk7: 3
#4Carlos Sanchez'14-'22 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,503 PA	3.8	2,503	32	30	248*	305*	353*	+8	+0	2.1	2.6
/162	664	8	8	+2.0	+0.0	0.6	pk7: 3
#5Scott Leius'90-'99 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,727 PA	2.6	1,727	28	16	237*	306*	358*	+5	+5	1.5	2.1
/162	664	11	6	+2.0	+1.9	0.6	pk7: 3
#6Carlos Febles'98-'03 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,892 PA	2.8	1,892	24	68	239*	316*	342*	+6	-4	0.5	0.5
/162	664	8	24	+2.2	-1.5	0.2	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Diego Contreras (OGILVIE)	19	52→57	34→39	52→57	58	219/288/312	93	294	1	2	26%	8%	72	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ramón Flores 2011 · A	19	45→55	37→45	48→50	47	211/276/288	77	274	4	7	23%	8%	61	-1.5	238/295/334	96	303	7	9	22%	7%	78	-0.3	255/328/354	99	304	9	8	18%	9%	94	+0.6
✕Noelvi Marte 2021 · A	19	41→51	41→50	49→55	45	201/256/299	98	254	8	12	24%	7%	56	-1.9	233/299/372	139	304	15	16	27%	8%	90	+0.6	241/309/383	142	307	16	19	26%	8%	94	+0.7
✕Steward Berroa 2018 · A	19	40→50	36→45	52→65	45	189/257/257	67	264	2	17	28%	8%	47	-2.5	204/269/271	67	302	2	17	30%	8%	55	-2.0	227/306/323	96	332	8	52	31%	10%	79	-0.1
✕Justin Bass 2008 · A	19	45→53	36→40	51→45	42	214/267/283	70	292	3	10	27%	6%	57	-1.8	224/273/302	78	287	4	8	22%	6%	63	-1.4	230/272/303	73	276	3	9	17%	5%	61	-1.0
✕Che-Hsuan Lin 2008 · A	19	41→51	42→40	56→55	40	200/253/311	111	279	8	14	30%	6%	58	-1.7	229/294/317	88	284	6	19	20%	7%	75	-0.5	243/314/319	76	293	5	22	18%	8%	80	-0.1
✕Henry Ramos 2012 · A	20	46→53	41→50	50	37	221/257/320	99	303	8	14	29%	4%	61	-1.5	225/270/334	109	303	9	9	27%	5%	70	-0.9	248/309/382	134	311	14	7	24%	7%	93	+0.5
✕Endy Rodríguez 2019 · A	19	41→51	38→50	46→45	49	194/270/274	80	254	5	6	24%	9%	57	-1.8	213/284/326	113	274	8	6	24%	8%	74	-0.6	239/309/386	148	295	15	5	23%	8%	96	+0.8
✕Arismendy Alcántara 2011 · A	19	41→51	37→55	57→55	47	196/252/275	79	246	4	14	22%	7%	49	-2.4	237/271/333	96	314	7	15	25%	4%	69	-0.9	241/284/391	150	317	14	25	28%	5%	86	+0.3
✕Danny Mars 2015 · A	21	43→53	40	54→55	43	210/262/297	87	274	7	15	26%	6%	58	-1.7	238/279/308	70	311	4	19	23%	5%	66	-1.1	257/294/328	70	338	3	19	24%	4%	73	-0.4
✕Willi Castro 2016 · A	19	42→52	39→50	50→55	37	205/249/290	85	283	6	10	29%	4%	51	-2.2	234/264/332	98	302	8	11	24%	3%	66	-1.1	241/325/382	141	307	13	23	24%	8%	103	+1.3
✕Alberto Rodriguez 2021 · A	20	42→52	38→50	52→50	44	203/259/282	79	268	5	14	25%	7%	53	-2.1	228/290/353	125	327	10	8	31%	7%	82	-0.0	228/292/360	132	326	11	7	31%	7%	81	-0.1
✕Buddy Kennedy 2019 · A	20	45→55	39→45	51→50	44	215/267/304	88	283	5	6	25%	6%	61	-1.5	217/275/326	109	287	10	7	27%	7%	70	-0.8	237/323/352	115	299	9	6	22%	10%	93	+0.7
✕Riley Unroe 2015 · A	19	39→47	37→45	47→55	46	189/257/263	74	257	4	8	27%	8%	49	-2.4	200/264/264	64	286	4	10	29%	8%	51	-2.2	218/301/329	112	292	11	26	27%	10%	78	-0.1
✕Chuck Taylor 2014 · A	20	44→54	37→40	45→50	41	207/267/278	71	294	4	9	29%	6%	55	-1.9	227/292/296	69	302	4	7	24%	7%	69	-0.9	240/305/325	85	298	6	4	20%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Junior Lake 2009 · A	19	42→52	38→50	54→55	38	200/247/280	81	281	4	12	30%	5%	48	-2.5	217/255/315	98	324	8	13	34%	4%	59	-1.6	246/294/373	127	337	13	19	30%	6%	87	+0.2
●Juan Lagares 2008 · A	19	40→50	38→45	52→50	40	194/241/285	91	263	4	12	27%	5%	47	-2.5	222/252/306	84	290	5	12	24%	3%	55	-1.9	276/309/387	111	347	6	13	22%	4%	93	+0.7
✕Daryl Jones 2006 · A	19	40→50	37→45	48→50	40	192/264/264	72	267	5	11	28%	5%	53	-2.1	212/278/306	94	284	8	13	27%	6%	67	-1.1	242/312/349	107	314	9	14	24%	7%	86	+0.3
✕Brandon Short 2009 · A	20	45→54	37→45	49→50	41	210/270/288	78	284	3	14	26%	6%	59	-1.6	242/286/355	113	326	10	10	27%	4%	80	-0.1	250/292/374	124	332	11	11	27%	4%	84	+0.2
✕Michael Hermosillo 2015 · A	20	42→49	39→55	51→55	43	201/272/293	93	294	6	11	32%	8%	61	-1.5	221/297/300	79	293	5	17	24%	8%	73	-0.6	234/309/359	124	316	12	20	28%	7%	88	+0.3
✕Rosell Herrera 2013 · A	20	40→50	37→45	48→55	42	193/245/268	75	263	5	9	28%	6%	45	-2.7	238/286/328	90	316	8	10	26%	6%	74	-0.6	253/308/344	91	321	4	24	21%	7%	84	+0.1

Diego Contreras

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps