Justin Henschel

P Daytona Tortugas

Age 23 RHP A peak 0.3 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	ACIN	20	14	77	5.87	5.45	18.6%	13.5%	—	K 13.8% · BB 15.9% · FIP 6.61
2027PROJ	23	MLBCIN	10	10	54	5.83	5.83	16.3%	15.1%	-0.5
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBCIN	5	5	30	5.50	5.39	18.3%	13.2%	-0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBCIN	8	8	47	5.24	5.12	19.5%	12.0%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsCarlos Marmol (age 23) · Jacob Meador (age 23) · Aaron Hernandez (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144136vR 128

ERA5.83

FIP5.83

K%16.3%

BB%15.1%

K-BB%1.2%

Proj IP54

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	20	14	77	349	65	47	13	70%	3.8	13.8%	15.9%	-2.1%	4.8%	5.87	6.61	—
2026	22	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	20	14	77	349	65	47	13	70%	3.8	13.8%	15.9%	-2.1%	4.8%	5.87	6.61	—
2026	22	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	20	14	77	349	65	47	13	70%	3.8	18.6%	13.5%	5.2%	3.7%	5.87	5.45	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	CIN	10	10	54	228	37	34	8	100%	5.4	16.3%	15.1%	1.2%	3.3%	5.83	5.83	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	71	299	55	39	10	100%	5.4	18.3%	13.2%	5.1%	3.2%	5.50	5.39	-0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	72	302	59	36	10	100%	6.0	19.5%	12.0%	7.5%	3.2%	5.24	5.12	-0.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	72	302	61	36	10	100%	6.0	20.1%	11.8%	8.3%	3.2%	5.10	5.03	-0.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	70	298	60	35	10	100%	5.9	20.2%	11.8%	8.4%	3.2%	5.07	5.05	-0.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	68	289	58	35	10	100%	6.2	20.1%	12.0%	8.1%	3.3%	5.11	5.14	-0.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	65	276	55	34	10	100%	5.9	19.8%	12.2%	7.6%	3.5%	5.21	5.27	-0.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	CIN	10	10	61	259	50	32	10	100%	6.1	19.5%	12.5%	7.0%	3.7%	5.35	5.45	-0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	CIN	5	5	30	127	23	17	4	100%	6.0	18.3%	13.2%	5.1%	3.2%	5.50	5.39	-0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	47	198	39	24	6	100%	5.9	19.5%	12.0%	7.5%	3.2%	5.24	5.12	-0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	57	241	48	28	8	100%	5.7	20.1%	11.8%	8.3%	3.2%	5.10	5.03	-0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	60	253	51	30	8	100%	6.0	20.2%	11.8%	8.4%	3.2%	5.07	5.05	-0.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	61	258	52	31	9	100%	6.1	20.1%	12.0%	8.1%	3.3%	5.11	5.14	-0.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	59	249	49	30	9	100%	5.9	19.8%	12.2%	7.6%	3.5%	5.21	5.27	-0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	57	241	47	30	9	100%	5.7	19.5%	12.5%	7.0%	3.7%	5.35	5.45	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		62	62	371	1568	309	190	53	100%	6.0	19.7%	12.1%	7.6%	3.4%	5.20	4.81	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	166	102	29	100%	5.9	19.7%	12.1%	7.6%	3.4%	5.20	4.81	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		20	14	77	349	48	55	17	70%	3.8	13.8%	15.9%	-2.1%	4.8%	5.87	6.61	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	37	200	910	125	145	44	70%	3.8	13.8%	15.9%	-2.1%	4.8%	5.87	6.61	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Henschel (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.83	16.3%	15.1%	3.3%	—	5.18	19.3%	7.0%	214	-0.65	—	—	—
Carlos Marmol R 2006 · 5.89 FIP	23	SP-	5.89	16.6%	16.0%	3.9%	.252	3.03	31.5%	18.0%	231	-2.86	1.59	608	89
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	88
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	86
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	85
Ryan Jensen R 2001 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	13.5%	13.0%	2.6%	.285	4.82	13.4%	5.2%	185	-0.21	4.35	253	84
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	84
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	84
Tyler Schlaffer R 2024 · 5.08 FIP	23	SP-	5.08	14.5%	13.3%	2.8%	.298	4.13	20.3%	7.7%	190	-0.95	3.79	399	83
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	83
John Maine R 2005 · 6.04 FIP	24	SP-	6.04	13.0%	13.0%	4.3%	.242	4.20	20.9%	11.4%	421	-1.84	3.91	582	82
Fernando Baez R 2015 · 6.56 FIP	23	SP-	6.56	18.6%	18.8%	4.8%	.322	4.51	26.9%	7.8%	94	-2.05	3.45	129	82
Rubén Menes R 2024 · 5.62 FIP	22	SP-	5.62	15.8%	15.2%	3.5%	.235	4.77	15.6%	2.4%	81	-0.85	3.39	112	82
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	82
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	81
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	81
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	81
Justin Miller R 2002 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	14.5%	13.6%	2.6%	.280	5.41	12.5%	2.1%	82	+0.40	2.63	373	81
Jason Savacool R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	14.9%	14.1%	2.2%	.275	4.88	17.2%	4.6%	128	+0.05	4.26	225	81
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	81
Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	21	SP-	5.22	13.9%	15.4%	2.5%	.237	4.69	20.8%	6.1%	105	-0.53	3.76	133	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	67	19.3%	12.5%	1.29	5.28
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*