Steven Lancia — OGILVIE

Steven LanciaC Kannapolis Cannon Ballers

Age 24 R/R A HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 107 proj PA

wRC+†66

AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .273 / .310

PA107

HR2

K%29

BB%7

ISO101

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	23	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	140	118	33	4	1	2	15	31	2	2	2	280	370	381	752	102	344	22	11	331	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	23	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	140	123	30	3	1	2	10	42	2	2	2	244	311	333	644	89	320	30	7	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	140	123	30	3	1	2	10	42	2	2	2	244	311	333	644	89	333	30	7	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A RAW	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	140	118	33	4	1	2	15	31	2	2	2	280	370	381	752	102	344	22	11	331	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	140	127	30	3	1	2	10	42	2	2	2	236	311	323	634	87	320	30	7	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	23	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	140	127	30	3	1	2	10	42	2	2	2	236	311	323	634	87	320	30	7	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CWS	0%	200	182	38	6	1	3	14	59	2	3	1	212	275	313	588	101	290	30	7	266	66	-8	+0	+0	+4	+4	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	CWS	30%	184	167	36	6	1	3	13	53	2	3	1	214	278	320	598	106	291	29	7	270	69	-7	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	CWS	44%	275	250	54	8	2	5	20	79	3	5	1	216	280	326	607	110	290	29	7	274	71	-9	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	CWS	49%	326	296	64	10	2	6	24	93	3	6	2	216	281	328	609	111	290	29	7	275	72	-11	+0	+0	+6	+7	0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	CWS	51%	358	326	70	11	2	7	26	102	3	6	2	216	281	327	608	111	289	28	7	274	72	-12	+0	-1	+6	+8	0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	CWS	51%	371	338	73	12	2	7	27	105	3	6	2	215	280	325	605	110	288	28	7	273	71	-13	+0	-1	+7	+8	0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	CWS	51%	377	344	73	12	2	7	27	108	3	6	3	212	277	317	594	105	286	29	7	268	68	-14	+0	-2	+7	+8	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	CWS	30%	55	50	11	2	0	1	4	16	1	1	0	215	279	322	601	107	291	29	7	271	69	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	CWS	44%	121	110	24	4	1	2	9	35	1	2	1	217	281	328	609	112	291	29	7	275	71	-4	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	CWS	49%	160	145	31	5	1	3	12	46	2	3	1	217	282	330	612	113	291	29	8	276	72	-5	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	CWS	51%	184	167	37	6	1	4	13	52	2	3	1	217	282	329	611	112	290	28	7	276	72	-6	+0	-0	+3	+4	0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	CWS	51%	191	173	38	6	1	4	14	54	2	3	1	216	281	327	608	111	288	28	7	274	71	-7	+0	-1	+3	+4	0.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	CWS	51%	194	176	38	6	1	4	14	56	2	3	1	213	277	319	596	106	286	29	7	269	68	-7	+0	-1	+3	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	905	821	179	29	5	18	66	259	10	15	5	218	284	331	616	113	293	29	7	274	71	-32	+1	-2	+16	+20	0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	590	129	21	4	13	47	186	7	11	4	219	284	334	618	115	294	29	7	274	71	-23	+1	-2	+12	+14	0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	2138	1942	421	65	13	39	154	614	20	36	14	217	281	324	605	107	293	29	7	273	71	-71	+2	-4	+36	+43	0.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	590	128	20	4	12	47	187	6	11	4	217	281	325	607	108	293	29	7	273	71	-23	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Garrett Hampsonlast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	29	65	234	296	352	+10	+10	3.9	3.9
/162	664	11	24	+3.6	+3.7	1.4	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	1.5	1,013	19	16	216	277	324	+18	+16	1.1	1.1
/162	664	12	11	+11.9	+10.5	0.8	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Steven Lancia (OGILVIE)	24	—	—	—	—	210/273/310	100	290	2	2	29%	7%	66	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Sicnarf Loopstok 2017 · A	24	43→36	42→50	50	38	209/268/316	107	294	9	13	31%	5%	65	-1.2	211/280/359	148	299	17	9	34%	7%	80	-0.1	199/274/363	164	277	21	7	34%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Sam Praytor 2024 · A	25	37	42→45	49→55	40	187/249/289	101	268	10	6	33%	6%	53	-2.1	203/271/315	112	272	11	8	28%	8%	67	-1.1	191/269/298	107	248	11	9	26%	8%	59	-0.5
✕Shane Muntz 2023 · A	24	39	43→45	48→45	43	191/272/299	108	276	10	5	33%	8%	64	-1.3	201/273/311	110	301	11	7	34%	7%	67	-1.1	174/253/281	107	263	11	5	36%	7%	51	-0.9
✕Jackson Cluff 2021 · A	24	40→30	42→45	51→60	40	198/262/303	106	282	9	12	32%	6%	60	-1.6	182/252/273	91	277	7	13	35%	6%	50	-2.3	178/268/298	120	261	12	28	34%	10%	60	-0.9
✕Zach Morgan 2024 · A	24	43	41→45	50	48	209/279/310	101	279	8	7	27%	9%	68	-1.0	202/272/291	89	258	8	8	23%	8%	61	-1.5	192/265/268	76	237	8	7	21%	8%	52	-0.8
✕Ben Gobbel 2024 · A	24	44→41	41→45	52→50	42	208/277/307	100	306	8	14	33%	7%	67	-1.1	216/267/338	122	283	14	12	28%	5%	70	-0.8	216/266/339	123	276	15	11	27%	5%	67	-0.8
✕Collin Price 2024 · A	24	37→36	43→50	43→45	44	186/262/299	114	266	11	4	33%	9%	60	-1.6	190/264/324	134	268	16	7	33%	8%	67	-1.1	176/256/317	141	243	18	8	34%	8%	60	-1.1
✕Connor Kaiser 2021 · A	24	38	42→45	46→50	46	189/265/291	102	263	10	6	30%	8%	59	-1.7	193/262/310	117	276	12	11	32%	8%	62	-1.4	179/257/294	115	257	12	17	33%	9%	54	-0.8
✕Jason Lopez 2022 · AA	24	39	42→50	54→45	41	194/257/295	101	291	10	12	35%	8%	56	-1.9	208/270/316	108	304	10	9	33%	8%	66	-1.1	167/227/257	90	235	8	0	31%	7%	34	-0.6
✕Blake Hunt 2023 · AA	24	39	42→50	50→40	39	193/251/299	106	278	10	5	33%	6%	55	-1.9	211/268/337	126	277	13	5	28%	6%	70	-0.8	215/280/358	143	272	16	1	27%	7%	77	-0.1
✕Tony Bullard 2024 · A	24	40	44→40	52→50	43	202/263/315	113	267	12	12	29%	7%	63	-1.3	214/271/319	105	285	9	12	27%	6%	68	-1.0	210/267/311	102	278	9	13	27%	6%	61	-0.5
✕Xorge Carrillo 2013 · A	24	42	43→40	49→30	40	209/255/316	107	273	11	8	28%	6%	59	-1.6	242/294/324	82	299	6	4	20%	5%	76	-0.4	241/298/321	80	287	7	1	18%	5%	75	-0.2
✕Carson Blair 2014 · A	24	38	44→50	45→30	41	189/257/310	121	293	11	6	37%	8%	60	-1.6	204/277/337	133	332	13	3	39%	9%	74	-0.5	194/271/327	133	315	13	1	40%	9%	67	-0.5
✕Vito Friscia 2021 · A	24	43	40→45	49→40	42	206/262/298	93	286	7	5	30%	7%	59	-1.7	208/290/320	112	316	11	4	34%	9%	75	-0.5	196/287/310	113	296	11	2	34%	10%	70	-0.5
✕JJ Schwarz 2021 · A	25	38	40→45	48→30	43	189/253/279	90	264	9	6	31%	7%	51	-2.2	212/279/326	114	294	12	3	30%	8%	72	-0.7	205/275/317	113	280	13	1	30%	9%	66	-0.6
✕Chase Strumpf 2022 · AA	24	42→37	43→50	48→45	46	205/287/320	115	295	10	7	32%	9%	74	-0.5	197/296/347	150	315	17	5	39%	10%	84	+0.2	181/287/333	152	294	19	3	41%	11%	75	-0.3
✕Willie MacIver 2021 · A	24	38→35	43→50	49→55	37	192/239/298	106	261	10	9	30%	4%	51	-2.3	195/262/314	119	281	13	15	34%	7%	63	-1.3	240/316/371	130	330	11	18	28%	8%	93	+0.5
✕Joe Donovan 2023 · A	24	34	43→45	51→40	36	174/246/284	110	279	11	7	40%	6%	51	-2.3	198/254/306	108	309	9	5	37%	5%	58	-1.7	198/252/314	115	294	9	0	34%	4%	55	-0.7
✕Aramis Garcia 2017 · A	24	42	43→50	46→45	41	209/263/314	105	286	12	4	30%	6%	63	-1.4	216/260/357	141	296	17	2	32%	5%	72	-0.7	208/254/358	150	287	19	0	34%	5%	68	-0.7
✕Freuddy Batista 2024 · A	24	42	45→50	49→40	38	207/269/340	132	307	12	5	35%	6%	72	-0.7	212/265/343	131	290	14	4	31%	5%	71	-0.8	206/259/338	132	266	17	4	29%	4%	64	-0.6

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps