Matt Lanzendorfer

Matt Lanzendorfer P Great Lakes Loons

Age 24 LHP 6'1" / 180 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 38 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103111vR 119

ERA4.54

FIP4.54

K%23.7%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%12.4%

ROS IP38

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	40	1	55	242	77	29	4	2%	1.4	24.4%	13.8%	10.6%	2.1%	4.61	3.93	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	40	1	55	242	77	29	4	2%	1.4	24.4%	13.8%	10.6%	2.1%	4.61	3.93	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A RAW	LAD	7	0	7	31	10	3	0	0%	1.0	32.3%	9.7%	22.6%	0.0%	6.14	1.60	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	LAD	33	1	47	211	67	26	4	3%	1.4	31.8%	12.3%	19.4%	1.9%	4.37	3.02	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	LAD	52	0	54	229	55	24	7	0%	1.0	24.1%	10.5%	13.6%	3.0%	4.45	4.40	+0.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	LAD	52	0	54	229	55	24	7	0%	1.0	24.2%	10.4%	13.8%	3.0%	4.40	4.38	+0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	LAD	51	0	53	225	54	23	7	0%	1.0	24.2%	10.4%	13.8%	3.0%	4.40	4.41	+0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	LAD	22	0	23	97	23	10	3	0%	1.0	24.1%	10.5%	13.6%	3.0%	4.45	4.40	+0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	LAD	34	0	36	152	37	16	5	0%	1.1	24.2%	10.4%	13.8%	3.0%	4.40	4.38	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	LAD	39	0	41	173	42	18	5	0%	1.1	24.2%	10.4%	13.8%	3.0%	4.40	4.41	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		96	0	101	425	103	44	13	0%	1.0	24.2%	10.4%	13.7%	3.0%	4.41	4.02	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	205	87	26	0%	1.1	24.2%	10.4%	13.7%	3.0%	4.41	4.02	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		40	1	55	242	59	33	5	2%	1.4	24.4%	13.8%	10.6%	2.1%	4.61	3.93	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		146	4	200	885	216	122	18	2%	1.4	24.4%	13.8%	10.6%	2.1%	4.61	3.93	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Lanzendorfer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.54	23.7%	11.3%	3.0%	—	4.40	24.1%	13.7%	162	-0.14	—	—	—
Brian Marconi L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	24	SU	3.89	25.3%	12.3%	2.5%	.265	5.02	20.3%	2.1%	57	+1.13	3.89	101	92
Thomas Burrows L 2019 · 3.99 FIP	24	SU	3.99	22.0%	10.5%	2.6%	.276	3.93	26.5%	12.9%	82	-0.06	2.67	271	87
Graeme Stinson L 2022 · 3.56 FIP	24	SU	3.56	23.0%	10.5%	1.9%	.275	4.85	19.5%	3.9%	45	+1.29	3.56	146	86
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	86
Wesley Moore L 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	25.9%	13.2%	1.9%	.254	4.18	18.3%	5.6%	58	+0.56	3.62	111	86
Ty Damron L 2018 · 4.27 FIP	24	SU	4.27	24.3%	14.0%	2.6%	.358	4.30	19.7%	10.3%	134	+0.03	3.29	346	85
Daniel Stumpf L 2015 · 4.31 FIP	24	SU	4.31	20.8%	11.5%	2.8%	.268	3.54	22.5%	15.3%	123	-0.77	1.84	238	85
Robert Garcia L 2019 · 4.35 FIP	23	SU	4.35	24.0%	11.4%	3.3%	.342	4.38	22.0%	10.4%	106	+0.03	2.21	452	85
Michael Johnson L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	24	SU	3.92	20.6%	9.4%	2.5%	.260	4.70	17.6%	7.7%	185	+0.78	3.92	256	85
Brandon Hughes L 2021 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	27.0%	11.1%	2.7%	.300	4.61	24.0%	15.0%	149	+0.93	3.68	206	84
Fred Schlichtholz L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	12.8%	2.6%	.368	4.13	18.5%	8.4%	80	-0.10	3.49	175	84
Keylan Killgore L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	22	SU	4.23	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	161	84
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.90	22.0%	8.8%	105	-0.30	3.14	161	84
Garrett Irvin L 2023 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.10	4.32	110	83
Brendon Little L 2021 · 3.76 FIP	24	SU	3.76	24.7%	11.4%	2.4%	.333	4.06	19.8%	8.8%	187	+0.30	2.63	503	83
Houston Harding L 2022 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	20.2%	10.5%	4.7%	.307	4.87	17.2%	4.9%	158	-0.43	3.41	239	83
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	83
Easton Lucas L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	23.6%	9.2%	3.7%	.316	4.03	21.2%	11.6%	184	-0.26	3.43	311	83
Jared Tobey L 2019 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	21.0%	12.1%	2.1%	.320	5.43	22.4%	8.2%	73	+1.44	3.99	158	83
R.C. Orlan L 2015 · 3.93 FIP	24	SU	3.93	21.0%	10.9%	2.2%	.326	4.62	17.2%	5.0%	119	+0.69	1.71	206	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	50	24.1%	10.6%	1.15	4.44
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58