Dawson Willis — OGILVIE

Dawson WillisSS Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 23 R/R A HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 247 proj PA

wRC+†58

AVG/OBP/SLG.182 / .252 / .303

PA247

HR5

SB7

K%35

BB%7

ISO123

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE53

scouting grade only

SPEED69

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	22	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	193	163	42	11	4	6	23	71	5	23	3	258	366	485	851	227	414	37	12	372	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	ROK	ACL Padres	—	67	60	18	5	1	4	6	18	1	3	1	300	373	617	990	317	368	27	9	426	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	193	170	29	7	3	4	16	96	5	23	3	171	262	318	579	147	345	50	8	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	67	62	13	3	1	3	4	26	1	3	1	210	269	435	704	226	272	39	6	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	260	233	41	10	3	7	19	122	6	26	4	176	256	335	591	159	324	47	7	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	260	223	60	16	5	10	29	89	6	26	4	269	368	520	888	251	400	34	11	386	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	260	233	41	10	3	7	19	122	6	26	4	176	256	335	591	159	326	47	7	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	260	233	41	10	3	7	19	122	6	26	4	176	256	335	591	159	326	47	7	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	SD	0%	370	334	62	12	3	8	28	131	5	10	2	183	254	306	560	123	268	35	8	254	58	-19	+1	+0	+4	+8	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	SD	30%	294	266	50	9	2	7	22	102	4	8	1	188	259	316	575	128	270	35	7	259	62	-13	+1	+0	+3	+6	-0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	SD	44%	361	327	63	12	3	9	27	123	4	10	2	191	263	323	586	132	272	34	7	264	65	-15	+1	+0	+4	+8	-0.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	SD	51%	405	366	71	13	3	10	31	135	5	12	2	194	266	329	595	134	273	33	8	268	67	-16	+2	+0	+4	+9	-0.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	SD	52%	425	384	76	14	3	11	33	140	5	12	2	196	268	330	598	134	273	33	8	269	68	-16	+2	+0	+5	+9	-0.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	SD	53%	435	393	78	15	3	11	34	142	5	12	2	197	269	330	598	133	274	33	8	269	68	-16	+2	-1	+5	+9	-0.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	SD	57%	433	392	76	14	3	10	33	143	5	11	2	194	266	324	590	129	272	33	8	266	66	-17	+1	-1	+5	+9	-0.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	SD	60%	428	387	75	14	3	10	33	142	5	11	2	192	263	317	579	125	271	33	8	262	63	-19	+1	-2	+5	+9	-0.6
2028	24	MLB CTX	SD	30%	88	80	15	3	1	2	7	30	1	3	0	185	257	312	569	127	265	34	8	257	62	-4	+1	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	SD	44%	159	144	27	5	1	4	12	54	2	5	1	189	261	319	580	131	266	34	8	262	65	-7	+1	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	SD	51%	205	185	35	6	1	5	16	68	2	6	1	191	264	325	589	134	267	33	8	265	67	-8	+1	+0	+2	+4	-0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	SD	52%	223	201	40	7	2	6	17	74	3	6	1	193	265	327	592	134	268	33	8	267	68	-8	+1	+0	+2	+5	-0.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	SD	53%	232	209	41	7	2	6	18	76	3	6	1	194	266	326	592	132	268	33	8	267	68	-9	+1	-0	+2	+5	-0.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	SD	57%	247	223	44	8	2	6	19	81	3	6	1	192	263	320	584	129	267	33	8	263	66	-10	+1	-1	+3	+5	-0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	SD	60%	255	231	44	8	2	6	19	85	3	6	1	189	260	313	573	124	265	33	7	259	63	-11	+1	-1	+3	+6	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1409	1273	246	44	11	35	108	468	17	38	6	193	265	328	593	134	272	33	8	263	65	-57	+5	-2	+15	+31	-0.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	113	20	5	16	50	216	8	18	3	193	265	325	590	133	271	33	8	263	65	-26	+2	-1	+7	+14	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	3288	2972	571	109	25	80	250	1136	42	109	18	192	264	326	591	134	277	35	8	264	65	-125	+11	-4	+32	+66	-2.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	588	114	22	5	16	49	225	8	22	4	194	265	330	595	136	280	35	8	264	65	-27	+2	-1	+7	+14	-0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	2.5	1,656	39	45	193	262	323	+18	+12	-0.0	0.1
/162	664	16	18	+7.1	+4.8	-0.0	pk7: 0
#5Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Dawson Willis (OGILVIE)	23	20→25	45→50	64→69	53	182/252/303	122	268	5	7	35%	7%	58	-0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jase Bowen 2024 · AA	23	37→42	47→50	55	36	194/247/321	127	273	15	17	34%	5%	59	-1.7	209/260/339	130	297	14	20	33%	5%	68	-1.0	209/260/343	134	298	14	23	33%	6%	66	-0.7
✕Cooper Bowman 2023 · A	23	39→44	43→45	59→60	44	194/276/302	108	285	11	31	34%	9%	66	-1.1	210/284/328	118	287	11	35	29%	8%	74	-0.5	210/283/330	120	279	11	40	27%	8%	72	-0.5
✕P.J. Hilson 2024 · A	23	37	46→50	56→50	35	195/241/325	130	266	14	13	32%	4%	57	-1.8	196/242/318	122	267	15	15	32%	4%	56	-1.9	183/233/293	110	250	15	19	33%	5%	45	-1.3
✕Mikey Perez 2023 · A	23	41→34	44→45	59→60	43	201/280/320	119	275	10	31	29%	7%	72	-0.7	196/276/308	112	286	12	26	33%	8%	68	-1.0	148/246/242	93	219	13	36	36%	8%	40	-1.2
✕Joe Gray Jr. 2023 · A	23	32→35	47→45	55→50	38	170/244/306	136	269	15	14	41%	8%	55	-1.9	179/236/276	97	270	10	13	36%	6%	44	-2.8	176/220/261	85	252	10	14	34%	4%	32	-2.9
✕Max Wagner 2024 · AA	22	41→38	46→50	55→50	42	204/275/332	128	291	13	18	33%	8%	72	-0.7	195/261/317	122	302	13	12	37%	7%	63	-1.3	190/255/330	140	291	17	7	39%	7%	61	-0.9
✕Billy Cook 2023 · A	24	35→44	48→50	56→55	32	181/235/320	139	288	15	20	42%	5%	54	-2.0	206/266/342	136	290	16	22	33%	6%	71	-0.8	211/276/340	129	293	14	25	32%	7%	72	-0.4
✕Phillip Sikes 2023 · A	24	42→37	48→45	57→55	42	205/282/355	150	307	14	16	36%	8%	80	-0.2	189/258/301	112	290	11	24	36%	7%	59	-1.7	174/243/274	100	267	11	28	37%	6%	46	-1.6
✕Shawn Goosenberg 2024 · A	24	40→38	42→45	56→55	41	196/265/296	100	285	10	23	33%	7%	60	-1.6	197/250/309	112	295	11	18	35%	6%	57	-1.8	184/234/312	127	273	14	18	37%	5%	49	-1.7
✕Travis Witherspoon 2012 · A	23	41→47	43→45	56→55	37	206/252/310	104	292	11	22	32%	5%	57	-1.8	214/269/335	121	287	13	23	29%	7%	70	-0.9	208/268/334	126	273	14	25	28%	7%	66	-0.9
✕Kenedy Corona 2023 · A	23	42	47→50	53→55	40	214/271/352	138	294	15	21	32%	6%	75	-0.5	206/270/322	116	285	12	24	30%	7%	68	-1.0	202/273/295	93	277	8	27	28%	7%	60	-1.1
✕Brayan Buelvas 2024 · AA	22	37→45	46→50	55	41	190/252/319	129	260	13	18	32%	7%	61	-1.5	204/265/326	122	293	11	16	32%	7%	66	-1.1	205/266/334	130	290	12	14	32%	7%	66	-0.8
✕Junior Perez 2024 · A	23	39→40	43→50	55	39	185/256/292	108	313	10	25	42%	8%	56	-1.9	183/253/316	133	294	14	24	40%	8%	60	-1.6	172/245/318	146	265	16	25	39%	8%	56	-1.4
✕Gavin Cross 2024 · A	23	37→40	47→50	55	42	190/264/327	138	277	14	18	35%	8%	68	-1.0	203/255/336	133	283	15	23	32%	6%	65	-1.2	200/247/333	133	277	16	26	33%	5%	59	-1.3
✕Jason Lopez 2022 · AA	24	39	42→50	54→45	41	194/257/295	101	291	10	12	35%	8%	56	-1.9	208/270/316	108	304	10	9	33%	8%	66	-1.1	167/227/257	90	235	8	0	31%	7%	34	-0.6
✕Alerick Soularie 2022 · A	23	43	42→45	54→60	45	206/285/309	103	308	10	15	34%	9%	70	-0.8	197/279/312	115	290	12	22	34%	9%	70	-0.9	181/270/293	112	261	13	29	33%	9%	60	-0.7
✕Ronaldo Urdaneta 2022 · A	23	42	41→40	58→60	40	199/267/295	96	319	9	25	38%	8%	60	-1.6	188/270/271	83	301	6	19	36%	9%	57	-1.8	95/220/120	24	167	0	28	37%	11%	5	-1.2
✕Max George 2019 · A	23	36→39	44→45	53→55	44	182/265/298	116	243	11	20	29%	7%	62	-1.4	190/276/301	111	283	11	20	34%	8%	66	-1.1	149/258/287	138	249	17	20	43%	10%	55	-0.8
✕Clay Fuller 2010 · A	23	43→46	42→45	56→55	46	208/288/316	108	299	9	20	31%	9%	73	-0.6	213/273/328	115	291	12	16	30%	7%	70	-0.8	210/264/327	117	279	14	16	29%	5%	63	-0.8
✕Sean Coyle 2014 · A	22	38	49→50	54→50	37	197/258/345	148	285	17	14	36%	6%	69	-0.9	206/268/346	140	308	16	13	36%	7%	73	-0.6	188/254/312	124	285	15	12	37%	7%	57	-1.0

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps