Trent Buchanan — OGILVIE

Trent Buchanan P Rome Emperors

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 233 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 22 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.35

FIP4.35

K%22.4%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%12.8%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	43	178	48	15	1	0%	1.5	21.7%	9.8%	11.9%	0.6%	2.53	2.86	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	43	178	48	15	1	0%	1.5	21.7%	9.8%	11.9%	0.6%	2.53	2.86	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	0	43	178	48	15	1	0%	1.5	27.0%	8.4%	18.5%	0.6%	2.53	2.21	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Rome Emperors	13	0	16	63	23	12	2	0%	1.2	28.1%	21.9%	6.2%	4.0%	4.02	5.68	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Rome Emperors	13	0	16	63	23	12	2	0%	1.2	28.1%	21.9%	6.2%	4.0%	4.02	5.68	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	ATL	13	0	16	63	23	12	2	0%	1.2	36.5%	19.0%	17.5%	3.2%	4.02	4.17	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	ATL	37	0	39	164	38	15	5	0%	1.1	22.9%	9.3%	13.6%	2.8%	4.29	4.26	+0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	ATL	16	0	17	72	16	7	2	0%	1.1	22.9%	9.3%	13.6%	2.8%	4.29	4.26	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		16	0	17	71	16	7	2	0%	1.0	22.9%	9.3%	13.6%	2.8%	4.29	3.88	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	191	84	24	0%	1.1	22.9%	9.3%	13.6%	2.8%	4.29	3.88	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		41	0	58	241	56	31	4	0%	1.4	23.4%	12.9%	10.4%	1.5%	2.93	3.60	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		141	0	200	826	193	107	13	0%	1.4	23.4%	12.9%	10.4%	1.5%	2.93	3.60	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trent Buchanan (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.35	22.4%	9.6%	2.8%	—	4.26	22.9%	13.6%	39	-0.09	—	—	—
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	92
Vince Vannelle R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.30	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.59	3.71	105	91
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	89
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	88
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	88
Kyle Martin R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	21.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.345	3.51	22.4%	12.5%	172	-0.10	3.01	214	88
Stephen Jones R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	24	SU	3.62	23.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.304	4.53	21.5%	9.8%	142	+0.91	3.62	309	88
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	87
Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	24	SU	3.52	23.4%	8.2%	2.5%	.262	6.07	20.4%	11.3%	128	+2.55	3.52	207	87
Kyle Schepel R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	23.1%	10.7%	3.9%	.233	3.64	22.1%	10.4%	120	-0.99	3.54	156	86
Alex Palsha R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	20.6%	10.4%	2.1%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.01	3.40	134	86
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	86
Trey McLoughlin R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	23.7%	8.4%	3.0%	.295	4.59	20.8%	8.4%	121	+0.80	3.77	244	86
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	86
Nolan Clenney R 2021 · 3.73 FIP	25	SU	3.73	25.5%	8.4%	3.1%	.340	4.36	22.2%	13.5%	185	+0.63	3.73	223	85
Roman Mendez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	25	SU	4.31	19.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.275	4.52	20.2%	10.4%	118	+0.21	4.12	230	85
Josh Advocate R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	24	SU	3.78	18.8%	7.3%	2.4%	.291	3.71	20.4%	10.1%	75	-0.07	3.71	118	85
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	85
Breckin Williams R 2018 · 3.65 FIP	24	SU	3.65	22.6%	7.3%	2.8%	.282	2.78	23.4%	15.8%	48	-0.87	2.76	107	85
Will Vest R 2019 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	21.8%	8.5%	2.5%	.282	3.65	20.9%	11.9%	124	-0.06	2.56	448	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	30	22.7%	9.4%	1.09	4.31
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Cory Gearrin ('19)	1.1	57	21.5%	9.8%	0.79	3.42