Juan García
P
DSL Cardinals
+0.3
WAR
Age 18
RHP
6'2" / 187 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 0.8 · 2032
ERA4.22
FIP4.22
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.3%
BB%8.4%
K-BB%13.9%
IP40
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2032
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17 | ROK | DSL Cardinals | 12 | 10 | 48 | 192 | 38 | 4 | 0 | 13.5% | 2.6% | 0.0% | 3.40 | 2.29 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 18 | MLB | STL | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 38 | 14 | 5 | 22.3% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.22 | 4.22 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 19 | MLB | STL | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 41 | 15 | 5 | 22.8% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.18 | 4.14 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 20 | MLB | STL | 45 | — | 45 | 188 | 44 | 15 | 5 | 23.2% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 4.12 | 4.06 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 21 | MLB | STL | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 47 | 16 | 5 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 4.04 | 3.98 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 22 | MLB | STL | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 51 | 16 | 6 | 24.5% | 7.6% | 2.7% | 3.92 | 3.83 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 23 | MLB | STL | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 54 | 16 | 6 | 25.2% | 7.3% | 2.6% | 3.79 | 3.71 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 24 | MLB | STL | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 57 | 16 | 6 | 25.8% | 7.1% | 2.6% | 3.69 | 3.62 | +0.8 |
| 2033 | 25 | MLB | STL | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 58 | 16 | 6 | 26.2% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 3.61 | 3.56 | +0.8 |
| 2034 | 26 | MLB | STL | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 59 | 15 | 6 | 26.4% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 3.57 | 3.54 | +0.8 |
| 2035 | 27 | MLB | STL | 52 | — | 52 | 222 | 58 | 15 | 6 | 26.4% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 3.56 | 3.55 | +0.8 |
| 2036 | 28 | MLB | STL | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 57 | 15 | 6 | 26.3% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 3.57 | 3.58 | +0.8 |
| 2037 | 29 | MLB | STL | 50 | — | 50 | 213 | 56 | 15 | 6 | 26.2% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 3.60 | 3.62 | +0.8 |
| 2038 | 30 | MLB | STL | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 54 | 15 | 6 | 26.0% | 7.2% | 2.7% | 3.65 | 3.68 | +0.7 |
| 2039 | 31 | MLB | STL | 47 | — | 47 | 200 | 51 | 15 | 6 | 25.8% | 7.3% | 2.8% | 3.71 | 3.76 | +0.6 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 12 | 10 | 48 | 192 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 13.5% | 2.6% | 0.0% | 3.40 | 2.29 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 42 | 200 | 806 | 109 | 21 | 0 | 13.5% | 2.6% | 0.0% | 3.40 | 2.29 | +6.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Juan García (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.22 | 22.3% | 8.4% | 2.8% | — | 4.06 | 23.2% | 15.1% | 134 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Juan Bello R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 18 | SU | 3.96 | 18.3% | 6.9% | 2.8% | .256 | 3.89 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 155 | -0.07 | 3.74 | 187 | 92 |
| Kyle Glogoski R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.46 | 19.9% | 8.5% | 1.7% | .277 | 3.93 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 93 | +0.47 | 3.32 | 206 | 90 |
| Luis Arejula R 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.49 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .318 | 4.43 | 15.7% | 3.5% | 71 | +0.94 | 3.49 | 115 | 90 |
| Harold Cortijo R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.46 | 19.1% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .309 | 5.60 | 13.5% | 2.2% | 73 | +1.14 | 4.15 | 179 | 90 |
| Sean Paul Liñan R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.05 | 17.7% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .324 | 3.67 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 127 | -0.38 | 3.29 | 189 | 89 |
| Shawndrick Oduber R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.04 | 22.0% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .337 | 5.41 | 15.2% | 3.4% | 72 | +1.37 | 4.04 | 104 | 89 |
| Blake Workman R 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.00 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .307 | 3.94 | 23.8% | 19.5% | 105 | -0.06 | 3.11 | 213 | 87 |
| Andry Lara R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.94 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 4.0% | .294 | 4.76 | 16.6% | 6.7% | 334 | -0.18 | 4.56 | 425 | 87 |
| Jose Montero R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.74 | 20.8% | 7.9% | 2.5% | .377 | 4.02 | 15.8% | 4.6% | 234 | +0.28 | 3.74 | 273 | 87 |
| Jordany Ventura R 2027 · 4.08 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.08 | 16.8% | 8.9% | 2.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 219 | 87 |
| Osiel Rodriguez R 2028 · 3.32 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.32 | 19.6% | 6.6% | 1.9% | .306 | 5.30 | 22.3% | 7.4% | 92 | +1.98 | 3.32 | 124 | 87 |
| Dario Gardea R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.46 | 18.6% | 8.7% | 1.5% | .250 | 3.46 | 19.5% | 12.4% | 50 | +0.00 | 3.12 | 205 | 86 |
| Miguel Rondon R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.47 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .361 | 7.30 | 18.1% | 2.1% | 88 | +2.83 | 2.62 | 179 | 86 |
| Christian Romero R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 18 | SU | 3.25 | 18.8% | 8.6% | 1.2% | .280 | 4.95 | 16.3% | 7.8% | 198 | +1.70 | 3.25 | 347 | 86 |
| Dawil Almonte R 2028 · 3.60 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.60 | 17.4% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .271 | 4.54 | 14.7% | 3.3% | 97 | +0.94 | 3.60 | 138 | 86 |
| Aneudis George R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 18 | SU | 3.50 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 1.7% | .333 | 4.76 | 9.5% | 2.8% | 52 | +1.26 | 3.33 | 101 | 86 |
| Ivan Oviedo R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 18 | SW | 3.68 | 18.8% | 7.7% | 2.2% | .286 | 4.39 | 19.5% | 7.2% | 111 | +0.71 | 3.68 | 174 | 86 |
| Jostin Florentino R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 18 | SU | 3.76 | 16.5% | 8.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.01 | 21.0% | 12.1% | 116 | -0.75 | 2.58 | 152 | 85 |
| Alexander Campos R 2028 · 3.88 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.88 | 17.0% | 6.0% | 2.7% | .281 | 4.35 | 12.2% | 7.1% | 103 | +0.47 | 3.86 | 125 | 85 |
| Pedro González R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 18 | SW | 4.40 | 17.0% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .292 | 4.99 | 13.0% | -2.7% | 71 | +0.59 | 4.06 | 285 | 85 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2032
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2037
First FA Year 2038
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2031 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2037 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $16M | +$12M | ||