Juan García

P DSL Cardinals

Age 19 RHP 6'2" / 187 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038 peak 1.0 · 2032

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#940ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	17	ROKSTL	12	10	48	3.40	1.76	19.8%	2.1%	—	K 13.5% · BB 2.6% · FIP 2.29
2026	18	ROKSTL	11	11	43	4.40	2.89	20.5%	5.3%	—	K 14.0% · BB 6.6% · FIP 3.97
2027PROJ	19	MLBSTL	—	—	0	4.61	4.61	13.5%	5.4%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	20	MLBSTL	4	4	19	4.39	4.33	15.5%	5.6%	0.2
2029PROJ73% MLB	21	MLBSTL	6	6	28	4.27	4.20	16.8%	5.7%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control65Command45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsTrey Supak (age 19) · Jack Perkins (age 21) · Franyerson Reyes (age 17)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.61

FIP4.61

K%13.5%

BB%5.4%

K-BB%8.1%

Proj IP26

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$32M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL6565

CMD4545

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	12	10	48	192	38	4	0	83%	4.0	13.5%	2.6%	10.9%	0.0%	3.40	2.29	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	12	10	48	192	38	4	0	83%	4.0	13.5%	2.6%	10.9%	0.0%	3.40	2.29	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	12	10	48	192	38	4	0	83%	4.0	19.8%	2.1%	17.7%	0.0%	3.40	1.76	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	11	11	43	190	39	10	3	100%	3.9	14.0%	6.6%	7.4%	2.2%	4.40	3.97	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	11	11	43	190	39	10	3	100%	3.9	14.0%	6.6%	7.4%	2.2%	4.40	3.97	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	11	11	43	190	39	10	3	100%	3.9	20.5%	5.3%	15.3%	1.6%	4.40	2.89	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	19	MLB	STL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	13.5%	5.4%	8.1%	2.9%	4.61	4.61	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	STL	8	8	38	162	25	9	5	100%	4.8	15.5%	5.6%	9.9%	2.8%	4.50	4.44	+0.4
2029	21	MLB MLE	STL	8	8	38	162	27	9	5	100%	4.8	16.8%	5.7%	11.2%	2.8%	4.38	4.31	+0.5
2030	22	MLB MLE	STL	8	8	40	167	30	9	5	100%	5.0	18.2%	5.5%	12.8%	2.7%	4.23	4.14	+0.6
2031	23	MLB MLE	STL	8	8	40	170	32	9	5	100%	5.0	19.1%	5.2%	13.8%	2.7%	4.10	4.02	+0.7
2032	24	MLB MLE	STL	7	7	40	170	33	9	5	100%	5.7	19.6%	5.0%	14.6%	2.7%	4.00	3.93	+0.7
2033	25	MLB MLE	STL	7	7	39	166	33	8	4	100%	5.6	20.0%	4.9%	15.1%	2.7%	3.92	3.87	+0.7
2034	26	MLB MLE	STL	7	7	40	168	34	8	4	100%	5.7	20.2%	4.9%	15.4%	2.7%	3.88	3.85	+0.7
2035	27	MLB MLE	STL	6	6	39	164	33	8	4	100%	6.5	20.2%	4.9%	15.3%	2.7%	3.88	3.88	+0.7
2028	20	MLB CTX	STL	4	4	19	80	12	5	2	100%	4.8	15.5%	5.6%	9.9%	2.6%	4.39	4.33	+0.2
2029	21	MLB CTX	STL	6	6	28	118	20	7	3	100%	4.7	16.8%	5.7%	11.2%	2.6%	4.27	4.20	+0.4
2030	22	MLB CTX	STL	6	6	33	139	25	8	4	100%	5.5	18.2%	5.5%	12.8%	2.5%	4.12	4.03	+0.5
2031	23	MLB CTX	STL	7	7	36	152	29	8	4	100%	5.1	19.1%	5.2%	13.8%	2.5%	4.00	3.92	+0.6
2032	24	MLB CTX	STL	7	7	37	156	31	8	4	100%	5.3	19.6%	5.0%	14.6%	2.5%	3.90	3.83	+0.6
2033	25	MLB CTX	STL	6	6	37	156	31	8	4	100%	6.2	20.0%	4.9%	15.1%	2.5%	3.82	3.77	+0.7
2034	26	MLB CTX	STL	6	6	38	160	32	8	4	100%	6.3	20.2%	4.9%	15.4%	2.5%	3.78	3.75	+0.7
2035	27	MLB CTX	STL	6	6	37	156	32	8	4	100%	6.2	20.2%	4.9%	15.3%	2.5%	3.78	3.78	+0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		49	49	265	1118	212	58	28	100%	5.4	19.0%	5.2%	13.8%	2.5%	3.97	3.53	+6.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	37	200	844	160	44	21	100%	5.5	19.0%	5.2%	13.8%	2.5%	3.97	3.53	+4.6
Career	—	MLE		23	21	91	382	52	18	4	91%	3.9	13.7%	4.6%	9.1%	1.1%	3.87	3.13	+5.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	46	200	843	116	39	9	91%	3.9	13.7%	4.6%	9.1%	1.1%	3.87	3.13	+3.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKDSL Cardinals · 43 IPFIP 2.90 → 3.97 (+1.07)K% 20.5% → 14.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.53%	—	×0.680	13.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.26%	—	×1.250	6.58%
HR / BF /BF	1.58%	÷1.000	×1.400	2.21%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.90 → 3.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKDSL Cardinals · 48 IPFIP 1.69 → 2.29 (+0.60)K% 19.8% → 13.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.79%	—	×0.680	13.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.08%	—	×1.250	2.60%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.047	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.69 → 2.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan García (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.61	13.5%	5.4%	2.9%	—	4.29	16.9%	11.3%	116	-0.32	—	—	—
Trey Supak R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	19	SP	3.91	12.6%	5.0%	2.3%	.351	3.94	17.4%	8.5%	309	+0.03	3.15	882	89
Jack Perkins R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	21	SP-	4.34	13.6%	5.4%	3.1%	.312	4.91	16.4%	7.5%	156	+0.57	4.34	176	87
Franyerson Reyes R 2024 · 3.46 FIP	17	SP	3.46	13.2%	4.9%	1.6%	.265	4.66	12.5%	1.2%	67	+1.20	3.46	114	86
Anderson Bido R 2017 · 3.52 FIP	18	SP	3.52	15.4%	6.5%	1.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	2.90	292	86
Gilmael Troya R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	19	SP	4.99	12.2%	6.3%	3.9%	.265	4.77	18.9%	5.8%	145	-0.22	3.39	255	83
Javier Bartolozzi R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	19	SP	3.65	15.5%	6.5%	1.9%	.356	5.18	12.7%	2.9%	75	+1.53	3.39	164	83
Junior Gonzalez R 2016 · 3.88 FIP	19	SP	3.88	10.9%	4.6%	2.0%	.324	5.32	8.0%	-1.3%	91	+1.44	3.59	221	83
Michael Santos R 2015 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP	4.11	11.1%	7.7%	1.8%	.303	3.35	14.0%	8.5%	191	-0.76	2.26	276	82
John Swanda R 2018 · 5.08 FIP	19	SP	5.08	13.0%	6.4%	4.1%	.333	4.78	14.6%	5.8%	116	-0.30	3.56	262	82
Mitchell Jordan R 2016 · 3.67 FIP	21	SP	3.67	14.0%	6.2%	1.8%	.316	4.87	15.7%	7.4%	342	+1.20	3.67	380	82
Juan Bello R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	18	SP	4.02	18.3%	6.9%	2.9%	.256	3.93	18.2%	7.6%	155	-0.09	3.77	187	82
Geoffrey Bramblett R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	21	SP	3.75	15.1%	5.8%	2.2%	.223	5.35	11.3%	1.5%	81	+1.60	3.75	130	82
Pedro Barrios R 2018 · 4.31 FIP	19	SP	4.31	14.7%	6.7%	2.9%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	159	82
Wuilberth Mendez R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	19	SP-	4.97	11.9%	3.9%	4.3%	.336	4.31	12.3%	5.5%	101	-0.66	3.80	137	82
Ryan Mason R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	21	SP-	4.66	10.4%	4.8%	3.3%	.321	2.93	17.5%	12.5%	142	-1.73	1.66	245	82
Davis Polo R 2024 · 3.93 FIP	19	SP-	3.93	15.1%	5.9%	2.5%	.319	4.33	19.6%	9.0%	112	+0.40	3.48	236	81
José Rodríguez R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	19	SP	4.22	14.6%	7.4%	2.6%	.375	3.68	15.7%	8.1%	396	-0.54	3.07	796	81
Jhon Peluffo R 2016 · 4.56 FIP	19	SP	4.56	13.5%	8.8%	2.7%	.293	4.89	13.5%	4.2%	257	+0.33	3.46	363	81
Enniel Cortez R 2024 · 4.66 FIP	18	SP	4.66	17.0%	7.3%	3.8%	.366	6.43	13.5%	-2.6%	37	+1.77	2.38	131	81
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	38	18.3%	5.2%	1.06	4.15
Scott Atchison ('15)	1.7	50	17.7%	6.2%	0.91	3.63
Junichi Tazawa ('18)	2.0	49	22.2%	6.5%	1.12	4.12
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*
Tony Castillo ('88-'98, 4 WAR*)	2.6	59	18.5%*	7.3%*	0.98*	3.76*
Donn Pall ('88-'98, 3 WAR*)	2.5	63	17.1%*	6.2%*	1.20*	3.86*