Juan García — OGILVIE

Juan García P DSL Cardinals

Age 18 RHP 6'2" / 187 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.5 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 28 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.31

FIP4.31

K%13.9%

BB%3.5%

K-BB%10.4%

ROS IP28

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$41M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL6565

CMD4545

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.8M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$8M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	12	10	48	192	38	4	0	83%	4.0	13.5%	2.6%	10.9%	0.0%	3.40	2.29	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	12	10	48	192	38	4	0	83%	4.0	13.5%	2.6%	10.9%	0.0%	3.40	2.29	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	12	10	48	192	38	4	0	83%	4.0	19.8%	2.1%	17.7%	0.0%	3.40	1.76	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	11	11	43	190	39	10	3	100%	3.9	14.0%	6.6%	7.4%	2.2%	4.40	3.97	—
YTD	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	11	11	43	190	39	10	3	100%	3.9	14.0%	6.6%	7.4%	2.2%	4.40	3.97	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	18	ROK RAW	STL	11	11	43	190	39	10	3	100%	3.9	20.5%	5.3%	15.3%	1.6%	4.40	2.90	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	STL	10	10	45	190	30	7	5	100%	4.5	15.8%	3.8%	12.0%	2.8%	4.22	4.17	+0.4
2028	20	MLB MLE	STL	10	10	47	199	34	8	5	100%	4.7	17.1%	4.0%	13.0%	2.8%	4.13	4.06	+0.5
2029	21	MLB MLE	STL	10	10	50	209	37	9	6	100%	5.0	17.9%	4.1%	13.8%	2.7%	4.04	3.97	+0.5
2030	22	MLB MLE	STL	10	10	52	220	42	8	6	100%	5.2	18.9%	3.8%	15.1%	2.7%	3.91	3.82	+0.7
2031	23	MLB MLE	STL	10	10	54	228	45	8	6	100%	5.4	19.7%	3.5%	16.2%	2.6%	3.78	3.70	+0.8
2032	24	MLB MLE	STL	10	10	56	234	47	8	6	100%	5.5	20.2%	3.3%	16.9%	2.6%	3.68	3.61	+0.9
2033	25	MLB MLE	STL	10	10	56	237	49	8	6	100%	5.6	20.6%	3.2%	17.4%	2.6%	3.60	3.55	+0.9
2034	26	MLB MLE	STL	9	9	56	237	49	7	6	100%	6.2	20.8%	3.1%	17.7%	2.6%	3.56	3.53	+0.9
2035	27	MLB MLE	STL	9	9	55	234	49	8	6	100%	6.2	20.8%	3.2%	17.6%	2.6%	3.56	3.57	+0.9
2027	19	MLB CTX	STL	5	5	22	93	15	4	2	100%	4.4	15.8%	3.8%	12.0%	2.6%	4.11	4.06	+0.2
2028	20	MLB CTX	STL	7	7	34	144	25	6	4	100%	4.9	17.1%	4.0%	13.0%	2.6%	4.02	3.95	+0.3
2029	21	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	42	177	32	7	4	100%	4.7	17.9%	4.1%	13.8%	2.5%	3.94	3.87	+0.5
2030	22	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	47	198	38	8	5	100%	5.2	18.9%	3.8%	15.1%	2.5%	3.81	3.72	+0.6
2031	23	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	50	211	42	7	5	100%	5.6	19.7%	3.5%	16.2%	2.4%	3.68	3.60	+0.7
2032	24	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	52	220	44	7	5	100%	5.8	20.2%	3.3%	16.9%	2.4%	3.58	3.51	+0.8
2033	25	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	53	224	46	7	5	100%	5.9	20.6%	3.2%	17.4%	2.4%	3.50	3.45	+0.9
2034	26	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	53	224	47	7	5	100%	5.9	20.8%	3.1%	17.7%	2.4%	3.46	3.43	+0.9
2035	27	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	53	224	47	7	5	100%	5.9	20.8%	3.2%	17.6%	2.4%	3.46	3.47	+0.9
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		76	76	407	1717	334	60	42	100%	5.3	19.5%	3.5%	15.9%	2.4%	3.68	3.25	+8.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	37	200	844	164	30	21	100%	5.4	19.5%	3.5%	15.9%	2.4%	3.68	3.25	+4.1
Career	—	MLE		23	21	91	382	52	18	4	91%	3.9	13.7%	4.6%	9.1%	1.1%	3.87	3.13	+6.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	46	200	843	116	39	9	91%	3.9	13.7%	4.6%	9.1%	1.1%	3.87	3.13	+2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan García (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.31	13.9%	3.5%	2.8%	—	4.06	17.0%	13.0%	142	-0.25	—	—	—
Davidxon Lara R 2023 · 3.49 FIP	17	SP	3.49	13.8%	3.7%	2.0%	.286	4.62	15.7%	7.4%	109	+1.13	2.26	149	89
Brayan Narvaez R 2023 · 4.29 FIP	18	SP	4.29	13.2%	5.1%	3.0%	.315	3.89	15.7%	7.9%	129	-0.40	3.29	154	87
Elkin Alcala R 2016 · 4.41 FIP	18	SP	4.41	13.4%	3.3%	3.7%	.246	3.40	11.1%	4.8%	81	-1.01	3.25	100	85
Fernando Perez R 2022 · 3.49 FIP	18	SP	3.49	16.9%	3.2%	2.6%	.338	3.53	17.9%	10.6%	253	+0.04	2.79	317	84
Jorge Garcia R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	17	SP-	3.58	12.7%	4.0%	1.9%	.320	5.44	21.3%	13.7%	25	+1.86	3.58	131	83
Félix Paulino R 2015 · 3.33 FIP	20	SP	3.33	15.6%	3.1%	2.1%	.260	4.30	14.4%	5.4%	198	+0.97	3.33	394	82
Trey Supak R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	19	SP	3.91	12.6%	5.0%	2.3%	.351	3.94	17.4%	8.5%	309	+0.03	3.18	879	82
Jonatan Bernal R 2019 · 4.52 FIP	17	SP	4.52	10.7%	4.7%	3.2%	.260	4.78	13.3%	4.8%	134	+0.26	4.48	367	82
Jose Bravo R 2016 · 3.42 FIP	19	SP	3.42	13.1%	1.9%	2.1%	.347	3.69	15.5%	10.7%	128	+0.27	2.12	364	81
Anderson Bido R 2017 · 3.52 FIP	18	SP	3.52	15.4%	6.5%	1.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	2.90	292	80
Wuilberth Mendez R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	19	SP-	4.97	11.9%	3.9%	4.3%	.336	4.31	12.3%	5.5%	101	-0.66	3.80	137	80
Joe Elbis R 2021 · 3.44 FIP	18	SP	3.44	18.8%	3.9%	2.6%	.324	4.32	15.4%	4.9%	261	+0.88	2.55	314	80
Jesus Vargas R 2017 · 4.30 FIP	18	SP-	4.30	13.9%	4.4%	3.3%	.277	5.17	15.0%	7.9%	47	+0.87	2.86	358	80
Manuel Urias R 2019 · 3.28 FIP	18	SP	3.28	16.6%	4.4%	1.9%	.220	2.78	18.5%	13.5%	93	-0.50	2.18	481	80
Max Castillo R 2017 · 3.70 FIP	18	SP	3.70	17.7%	4.4%	2.8%	.365	3.87	15.9%	8.4%	262	+0.17	3.34	757	79
Jack Perkins R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	21	SP-	4.34	13.6%	5.4%	3.1%	.312	4.91	16.4%	7.5%	156	+0.57	4.34	176	79
Juan Bello R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	18	SP	4.02	18.3%	6.9%	2.9%	.256	3.93	18.2%	7.6%	155	-0.09	3.77	187	79
Hyun-il Choi R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	19	SP-	3.97	18.4%	5.2%	3.2%	.293	4.26	19.1%	14.1%	106	+0.29	3.97	455	78
Luis Tejeda R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	18	SP-	3.65	14.3%	6.1%	1.8%	.295	6.07	11.9%	-4.6%	45	+2.42	3.65	131	77
Wilmer Mejia R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	18	SP-	4.40	10.9%	4.1%	3.1%	.352	3.37	13.6%	4.3%	73	-1.03	3.13	115	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	50	18.9%	3.5%	1.03	3.84
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Richard Bleier ('23)	1.6	45	13.5%	3.8%	0.69	3.33
Brandon Kintzler ('21)	1.5	50	16.2%	6.3%	0.91	3.57
Craig Stammen ('22)	2.0	66	23.0%	5.4%	1.19	3.36
Adam Cimber ('24)	1.6	52	18.3%	6.6%	0.75	3.75
Alex Claudio ('21)	1.5	59	16.3%	6.1%	0.76	3.66