John Swanda — OGILVIE

John Swanda P Rocket City Trash Pandas

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 193 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.90

FIP4.90

K%18.2%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%7.3%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	18	ROK MLE	AZL Angels	7	1	10	48	6	5	1	14%	1.4	12.5%	10.4%	2.1%	2.1%	9.31	4.51	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	AZL Angels	7	1	10	48	6	5	1	14%	1.4	12.5%	10.4%	2.1%	2.1%	9.31	4.76	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	Orem Owlz	10	10	30	136	26	7	4	100%	3.0	13.0%	6.4%	6.6%	4.1%	4.50	5.08	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	Orem Owlz	10	10	30	136	26	7	4	100%	3.0	19.1%	5.1%	14.0%	2.9%	4.50	3.80	—
2019	20	A MLE	Burlington Bees	4	4	12	54	8	5	0	100%	2.9	11.0%	10.9%	0.0%	0.0%	3.86	3.56	—
2019	20	A RAW	Burlington Bees	4	4	12	54	8	5	0	100%	2.9	14.8%	9.3%	5.6%	0.0%	3.86	3.01	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	17	112	490	94	35	14	77%	5.1	15.0%	8.6%	6.4%	3.6%	4.58	4.92	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	17	112	490	94	35	14	77%	5.1	19.2%	7.1%	12.0%	2.9%	4.58	3.98	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	7	44	176	36	5	4	64%	4.0	14.0%	3.8%	10.2%	3.8%	4.74	4.49	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	11	7	44	176	36	5	4	64%	4.0	20.5%	2.8%	17.6%	2.3%	4.74	2.99	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	15	86	409	74	48	5	56%	3.2	14.5%	12.0%	2.4%	1.5%	6.80	4.20	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	15	86	409	74	48	5	56%	3.2	14.5%	12.0%	2.4%	1.5%	6.80	4.20	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	15	86	409	74	48	5	56%	3.2	18.1%	11.7%	6.4%	1.2%	6.80	3.81	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	LAA	1	1	5	21	4	2	1	100%	5.0	18.2%	10.9%	7.3%	2.9%	4.90	4.90	0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	LAA	10	10	58	247	46	27	7	100%	5.8	18.6%	10.8%	7.7%	3.0%	4.89	4.93	-0.0
2028	29	MLB MLE	LAA	9	9	56	236	44	26	7	100%	6.2	18.7%	10.9%	7.7%	3.1%	4.94	5.01	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	LAA	4	4	21	89	16	10	3	100%	5.2	18.6%	10.8%	7.7%	3.0%	4.89	4.93	-0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	LAA	5	5	31	131	24	14	4	100%	6.2	18.7%	10.9%	7.7%	3.1%	4.94	5.01	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	9	52	220	41	24	7	100%	5.8	18.6%	10.9%	7.7%	3.1%	4.92	4.60	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	157	92	27	100%	6.0	18.6%	10.9%	7.7%	3.1%	4.92	4.60	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		81	54	293	1313	187	118	37	67%	3.6	14.2%	9.0%	5.3%	2.8%	5.38	4.58	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	37	200	896	128	80	25	67%	3.6	14.2%	9.0%	5.3%	2.8%	5.38	4.58	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
John Swanda (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.90	18.2%	10.9%	2.9%	—	4.97	18.6%	7.7%	114	+0.07	—	—	—
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	82
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	81
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	80
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	78
Jacob Turner R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	27	SP-	4.48	14.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	340	78
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	78
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	280	77
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	77
Kanekoa Texeira R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	29	SP-	4.13	14.5%	11.2%	1.5%	.280	4.10	10.2%	-0.2%	63	-0.03	4.10	165	76
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	221	76
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.85 FIP	27	SP-	5.85	13.9%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	76
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	76
André Rienzo R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	27	SW	4.22	15.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.264	4.02	19.8%	5.1%	74	-0.20	3.53	200	76
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	76
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	25	SP-	4.90	19.1%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.05	22.7%	14.3%	222	-0.85	3.90	538	76
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	75
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP-	4.93	19.3%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.96	3.02	341	75
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	75
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	382	75
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	18.5%	10.9%	1.16	4.91
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43