John Swanda
P
Rocket City Trash Pandas
+0.7
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 193 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.7 · 2026
ERA4.51
FIP4.51
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.8%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%11.6%
IP86
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2026
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | AZL Angels | 7 | 1 | 10 | 48 | 6 | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | 9.31 | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | Orem Owlz | 10 | 10 | 30 | 136 | 26 | 7 | 4 | 13.0% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 4.50 | 5.08 | -0.0 |
| 2019 | 20 | A | Burlington Bees | 4 | 4 | 12 | 54 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 11.0% | 10.9% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 3.56 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 22 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 22 | 17 | 112 | 490 | 94 | 35 | 14 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.7% | 4.58 | 4.93 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 11 | 7 | 44 | 176 | 36 | 5 | 4 | 14.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.74 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 27 | 15 | 86 | 409 | 74 | 48 | 5 | 14.7% | 12.7% | 1.5% | 6.80 | 4.28 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | LAA | 16 | 16 | 86 | 363 | 79 | 37 | 10 | 21.8% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | LAA | 16 | 16 | 87 | 366 | 80 | 37 | 11 | 21.8% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 4.50 | 4.51 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | LAA | 15 | 15 | 85 | 358 | 77 | 35 | 11 | 21.7% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.51 | 4.53 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | LAA | 15 | 15 | 82 | 347 | 75 | 34 | 11 | 21.5% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.58 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | LAA | 14 | 14 | 79 | 335 | 78 | 31 | 10 | 23.3% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.38 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | LAA | 14 | 14 | 76 | 321 | 74 | 30 | 10 | 23.0% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 4.45 | 4.46 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | LAA | 13 | 13 | 73 | 307 | 70 | 29 | 10 | 22.7% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 4.52 | 4.56 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | LAA | 13 | 13 | 69 | 292 | 65 | 28 | 10 | 22.3% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 4.61 | 4.67 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | LAA | 12 | 12 | 65 | 275 | 60 | 27 | 10 | 21.9% | 9.9% | 3.5% | 4.72 | 4.79 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | LAA | 11 | 11 | 61 | 257 | 55 | 26 | 9 | 21.5% | 10.2% | 3.6% | 4.84 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 81 | 54 | 293 | 1313 | 188 | 121 | 38 | 14.3% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 5.38 | 4.62 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 37 | 200 | 896 | 128 | 83 | 26 | 14.3% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 5.38 | 4.62 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| John Swanda (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.51 | 21.8% | 10.2% | 2.9% | — | 4.54 | 21.6% | 11.7% | 254 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 89 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .325 | 4.62 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.82 | 3.80 | 500 | 87 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 85 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.89 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .327 | 3.06 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.83 | 2.32 | 1,443 | 83 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.72 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.12 | 3.22 | 221 | 83 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.94 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .324 | 3.78 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 135 | -0.16 | 3.62 | 224 | 83 |
| Yariel Rodríguez R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.76 | 25.1% | 11.8% | 2.3% | .275 | 3.86 | 22.1% | 11.7% | 73 | +0.10 | 3.76 | 180 | 82 |
| Bud Norris R 2029 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 81 |
| Brett Sears R 2024 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 81 |
| Noah Davis R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.05 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .368 | 4.33 | 21.5% | 10.4% | 79 | +0.28 | 2.95 | 492 | 81 |
| Wil Jensen R 2025 · 3.50 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.50 | 22.7% | 8.4% | 2.3% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 368 | 81 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.46 | 24.9% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .301 | 4.57 | 18.7% | 8.6% | 205 | +0.11 | 4.07 | 530 | 80 |
| Austin Bergner R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.00 | 22.3% | 13.6% | 3.8% | .325 | 4.04 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 91 | -0.96 | 4.04 | 448 | 80 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.42 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 5.02 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.60 | 4.42 | 200 | 80 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.23 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.32 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.91 | 3.32 | 252 | 80 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.43 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .393 | 4.26 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | -0.17 | 4.26 | 166 | 80 |
| Trent Sellers R 2024 · 4.51 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.51 | 21.8% | 13.3% | 2.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 178 | 79 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .286 | 4.13 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.24 | 3.89 | 248 | 79 |
| Tim Atherton R 2024 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 79 |
| Kolton Mahoney R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.57 | 19.4% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 302 | 79 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $1M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.6M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $1M | -$0.0M |
| Totals | $6M | $14M | +$7M | ||