John Swanda
P
Rocket City Trash Pandas
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 193 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.6 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 60 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 103
ERA4.51
FIP4.51
K%21.8%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%11.6%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | AZL Angels | 7 | 1 | 10 | 48 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 14% | 1.4 | 12.5% | 10.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 9.31 | 4.51 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | AZL Angels | 7 | 1 | 10 | 48 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 14% | 1.4 | 12.5% | 10.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 9.31 | 4.76 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | Orem Owlz | 10 | 10 | 30 | 136 | 26 | 7 | 4 | 100% | 3.0 | 13.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 4.50 | 5.08 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | Orem Owlz | 10 | 10 | 30 | 136 | 26 | 7 | 4 | 100% | 3.0 | 19.1% | 5.1% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 4.50 | 3.80 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A | Burlington Bees | 4 | 4 | 12 | 54 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 2.9 | 11.0% | 10.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 3.56 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A | Burlington Bees | 4 | 4 | 12 | 54 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 2.9 | 14.8% | 9.3% | 5.6% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 3.01 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 17 | 112 | 490 | 94 | 35 | 14 | 77% | 5.1 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 4.58 | 4.88 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 17 | 112 | 490 | 94 | 35 | 14 | 77% | 5.1 | 19.2% | 7.1% | 12.0% | 2.9% | 4.58 | 3.98 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 11 | 7 | 44 | 176 | 36 | 5 | 4 | 64% | 4.0 | 14.0% | 3.8% | 10.2% | 4.9% | 4.74 | 5.10 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 11 | 7 | 44 | 176 | 36 | 5 | 4 | 64% | 4.0 | 20.5% | 2.8% | 17.6% | 2.3% | 4.74 | 2.99 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 15 | 86 | 409 | 74 | 48 | 5 | 56% | 3.2 | 14.7% | 12.7% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 6.80 | 4.28 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 15 | 86 | 409 | 74 | 48 | 5 | 56% | 3.2 | 18.1% | 11.7% | 6.4% | 1.2% | 6.80 | 3.81 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | LAA | 10 | 10 | 60 | 254 | 55 | 26 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.8% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | LAA | 10 | 10 | 58 | 247 | 54 | 25 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.8% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | LAA | 9 | 9 | 56 | 236 | 51 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.7% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 3.1% | 4.62 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | LAA | 9 | 9 | 52 | 222 | 48 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.4% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 3.3% | 4.75 | 4.84 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | LAA | 4 | 4 | 21 | 89 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 5.2 | 21.8% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 4.51 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | LAA | 5 | 5 | 31 | 131 | 28 | 14 | 4 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.7% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 3.1% | 4.59 | 4.66 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | LAA | 6 | 6 | 35 | 148 | 32 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.4% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 3.3% | 4.72 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 15 | 15 | 88 | 370 | 80 | 39 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 4.62 | 4.31 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 183 | 89 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 4.62 | 4.31 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 81 | 54 | 293 | 1313 | 188 | 121 | 39 | 67% | 3.6 | 14.3% | 9.2% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 5.38 | 4.68 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 37 | 200 | 896 | 128 | 82 | 26 | 67% | 3.6 | 14.3% | 9.2% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 5.38 | 4.68 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| John Swanda (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.51 | 21.8% | 10.2% | 2.9% | — | 4.70 | 21.7% | 11.3% | 167 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Preston Johnson R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 146 | 82 |
| Dawson Netz R 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 81 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 77 |
| Raynel Espinal R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.76 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 3.0% | .313 | 3.72 | 22.3% | 12.4% | 224 | -0.04 | 2.53 | 507 | 76 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 76 |
| Sam Lewis R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.43 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 1.3% | .246 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 224 | 75 |
| Chase Whitley R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.04 | 19.5% | 7.0% | 3.1% | .217 | 3.24 | 18.0% | 11.8% | 81 | -0.80 | 3.11 | 159 | 75 |
| Chad Dallas R 2025 · 3.40 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.40 | 19.8% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.40 | 322 | 75 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.88 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.28 | 3.25 | 221 | 74 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.63 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | +0.03 | 3.22 | 254 | 74 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 73 |
| Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 73 |
| Brian Edgington R 2025 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.05 | 19.3% | 12.3% | 3.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 171 | 73 |
| Burch Smith R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.94 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.41 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 382 | 73 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.02 | 24.3% | 8.6% | 3.5% | .248 | 4.01 | 27.6% | 18.3% | 42 | -0.01 | 3.97 | 281 | 72 |
| Justin Topa R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.05 | 15.1% | 7.9% | 2.2% | .374 | 2.66 | 19.2% | 12.6% | 40 | -1.39 | 2.66 | 259 | 72 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.49 | 19.6% | 13.6% | 4.2% | .330 | 6.70 | 15.2% | 5.2% | 69 | +1.21 | 3.69 | 333 | 72 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 71 |
| Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.20 | 18.3% | 9.1% | 2.7% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.20 | 416 | 71 |
| Bryce Morrow R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.48 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .316 | 5.59 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.11 | 4.48 | 125 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 57 | 21.7% | 10.4% | 1.19 | 4.60 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |