Trey Supak
P
Round Rock Express
+1.4
WAR
Age 30
RHP
6'5" / 268 lbs
AAA
peak 1.2 · 2026
ERA4.30
FIP4.30
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.0%
BB%7.7%
K-BB%12.3%
IP108
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.2peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | Bristol Pirates | 8 | 8 | 28 | 124 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 12.6% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 6.67 | 3.91 | +0.3 |
| 2016 | 20 | A | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 15 | 8 | 58 | 248 | 51 | 17 | 3 | 15.0% | 8.1% | 1.3% | 3.24 | 3.59 | +0.9 |
| 2017 | 21 | A+ | Carolina Mudcats | 23 | 18 | 113 | 453 | 110 | 38 | 13 | 18.3% | 9.7% | 3.7% | 3.57 | 4.81 | +0.6 |
| 2018 | 22 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 25 | 25 | 138 | 553 | 123 | 42 | 6 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 1.2% | 2.48 | 3.37 | +3.0 |
| 2019 | 23 | AAA | San Antonio Missions | 27 | 27 | 153 | 614 | 118 | 31 | 12 | 15.9% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 3.60 | 3.69 | +2.8 |
| 2022 | 26 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 4 | 3 | 8 | 31 | 8 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.17 | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 37 | 6 | 85 | 393 | 62 | 33 | 14 | 13.2% | 9.0% | 4.1% | 5.61 | 5.38 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 21 | 13 | 85 | 374 | 72 | 26 | 12 | 16.6% | 7.4% | 3.5% | 4.54 | 4.55 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 26 | 26 | 129 | 532 | 131 | 33 | 8 | 20.7% | 6.7% | 1.8% | 3.85 | 3.21 | +3.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 4 | 3 | 14 | 68 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 16.8% | 15.4% | 6.5% | 6.91 | 7.19 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | MIL | 20 | 20 | 108 | 456 | 91 | 35 | 13 | 20.0% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 4.30 | 4.30 | +1.2 |
| 2026 Total | 30 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 122 | 524 | 104 | 45 | 17 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.61 | 4.64 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 19 | 19 | 104 | 440 | 88 | 34 | 13 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.37 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 18 | 18 | 100 | 422 | 84 | 34 | 13 | 19.8% | 7.9% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.45 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 17 | 17 | 96 | 403 | 79 | 33 | 12 | 19.6% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 4.48 | 4.54 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | MIL | 16 | 16 | 91 | 383 | 74 | 32 | 12 | 19.4% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 4.57 | 4.64 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | MIL | 16 | 16 | 86 | 361 | 68 | 31 | 12 | 19.0% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 4.68 | 4.76 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | MIL | 15 | 15 | 80 | 337 | 69 | 27 | 11 | 20.5% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 4.65 | 4.62 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 37 | MLB | MIL | 13 | 13 | 74 | 313 | 63 | 26 | 11 | 20.1% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 4.72 | 4.77 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 38 | MLB | MIL | 12 | 12 | 68 | 288 | 56 | 25 | 11 | 19.6% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 4.84 | 4.92 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 190 | 137 | 811 | 3390 | 574 | 266 | 87 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 3.87 | 4.07 | +11.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 34 | 200 | 836 | 141 | 66 | 21 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 3.87 | 4.07 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Trey Supak (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.30 | 20.0% | 7.7% | 2.8% | — | 4.45 | 19.8% | 11.9% | 300 | +0.15 | — | — | — |
| Mitch Atkins R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.70 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .341 | 4.75 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.05 | 3.70 | 205 | 88 |
| Tiago Da Silva R 2026 · 3.13 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.13 | 19.6% | 4.5% | 2.0% | .278 | 2.34 | 21.4% | 18.5% | 98 | -0.79 | 2.16 | 287 | 87 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.16 | 18.2% | 6.3% | 3.3% | .265 | 3.45 | 17.8% | 10.8% | 81 | -0.71 | 3.45 | 315 | 87 |
| Jose Oyervides R 2029 · 3.00 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.00 | 19.1% | 6.2% | 1.3% | .333 | 4.11 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 184 | +1.11 | 3.00 | 407 | 86 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 85 |
| Hector Noesí R 2024 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 83 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2028 · 4.56 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .316 | 4.46 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.10 | 4.46 | 143 | 83 |
| Michael Bowden R 2024 · 3.20 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.20 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 1.4% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 141 | 83 |
| Ervin Santana R 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.00 | 17.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .273 | 4.12 | 19.2% | 12.4% | 417 | +0.12 | 3.75 | 720 | 82 |
| Jose Samayoa R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.08 | 19.4% | 7.0% | 3.1% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 262 | 82 |
| Bruce Billings R 2025 · 3.11 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.11 | 15.6% | 5.6% | 1.1% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 121 | 81 |
| Yohan Pino R 2027 · 4.10 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.10 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 3.2% | .312 | 5.35 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.25 | 4.10 | 133 | 81 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.94 | 17.4% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .315 | 4.95 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 305 | +1.01 | 3.94 | 567 | 80 |
| Leo Medrano R 2028 · 3.75 FIP | 32 | SP- | 3.75 | 14.2% | 3.9% | 2.5% | .354 | 4.34 | 11.0% | 3.7% | 113 | +0.59 | 3.75 | 222 | 80 |
| Jason Berken R 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.51 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | +0.15 | 4.36 | 219 | 79 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2029 · 3.77 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.77 | 14.5% | 6.9% | 1.8% | .270 | 4.63 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 176 | +0.86 | 3.77 | 264 | 79 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2024 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.98 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 79 |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2029 · 3.74 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.74 | 15.2% | 8.0% | 1.7% | .262 | 4.37 | 16.2% | 8.2% | 114 | +0.63 | 3.74 | 240 | 78 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.87 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 5.04 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | +0.17 | 4.87 | 294 | 77 |
| Ramon Ramirez R 2028 · 3.56 FIP | 32 | SP- | 3.56 | 16.9% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .310 | 5.29 | 9.2% | -4.9% | 29 | +1.73 | 3.56 | 155 | 76 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.