Trey Supak

P Round Rock Express

Age 31 RHP 6'5" / 268 lbs AAA peak 0.6 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	28	MIX2 levels	21	13	85	4.54	4.15	19.3%	7.0%	—	K 16.3% · BB 6.5% · FIP 4.46
2025	29	MIX2 levels	26	26	129	3.85	2.64	24.6%	6.2%	—	K 20.5% · BB 6.1% · FIP 3.15
2026	30	MIX2 levels	23	21	97	5.66	4.35	16.4%	9.3%	—	K 14.2% · BB 8.6% · FIP 4.58
2027PROJ	31	MLBTEX	1	1	7	4.64	4.64	15.4%	7.2%	0.1
2028PROJ29% MLB	32	MLBTEX	3	3	16	4.75	4.84	15.7%	7.8%	0.1
2029PROJ44% MLB	33	MLBTEX	3	3	20	4.91	5.05	15.8%	8.4%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsZack Segovia (age 32) · Elian Leyva (age 30) · Juan Omar Espinoza (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.64

FIP4.64

K%15.4%

BB%7.2%

K-BB%8.1%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	19	ROK MLE	Bristol Pirates	8	8	28	124	23	5	2	100%	3.5	12.6%	5.0%	7.6%	2.3%	6.67	3.91	—
2015	19	ROK RAW	Bristol Pirates	8	8	28	124	23	5	2	100%	3.5	18.5%	4.0%	14.5%	1.6%	6.67	2.92	—
2016	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	8	58	248	51	17	3	53%	3.9	15.0%	8.1%	6.8%	1.4%	3.24	3.61	—
2016	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	8	58	248	51	17	3	53%	3.9	20.6%	6.9%	13.7%	1.2%	3.24	2.89	—
2017	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	18	113	453	110	38	13	78%	4.9	18.3%	9.7%	8.6%	3.7%	3.57	4.81	—
2017	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	18	113	453	110	38	13	78%	4.9	24.3%	8.4%	15.9%	2.9%	3.57	3.66	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	138	553	123	42	6	100%	5.5	17.7%	8.5%	9.2%	1.3%	2.48	3.37	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	138	553	123	42	6	100%	5.5	22.2%	7.6%	14.6%	1.1%	2.48	2.79	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	153	614	118	31	12	100%	5.7	15.9%	5.5%	10.4%	2.3%	3.60	3.69	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	153	614	118	31	12	100%	5.7	19.2%	5.0%	14.2%	2.0%	3.60	3.19	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	3	8	31	8	6	0	75%	1.9	25.8%	19.4%	6.5%	0.0%	1.17	3.37	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	3	8	31	8	6	0	75%	1.9	25.8%	19.4%	6.5%	0.0%	1.17	3.36	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	6	85	393	62	33	14	16%	2.3	13.1%	8.4%	4.7%	4.1%	5.61	5.31	—
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	6	85	393	62	33	14	16%	2.3	15.8%	8.4%	7.4%	3.6%	5.61	4.95	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	13	85	374	72	26	12	62%	4.1	16.3%	6.5%	9.8%	3.5%	4.54	4.46	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	13	85	374	72	26	12	62%	4.1	16.3%	6.5%	9.8%	3.5%	4.54	4.46	—
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	13	85	374	72	26	12	62%	4.1	19.3%	7.0%	12.3%	3.2%	4.54	4.15	—
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	129	532	131	33	8	100%	4.9	20.5%	6.1%	14.3%	1.8%	3.85	3.15	—
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	129	532	131	33	8	100%	4.9	20.5%	6.1%	14.3%	1.8%	3.85	3.15	—
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	129	532	131	33	8	100%	4.9	24.6%	6.2%	18.4%	1.5%	3.85	2.64	—
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	97	432	71	40	11	91%	4.2	14.2%	8.6%	5.6%	2.9%	5.66	4.58	—
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	97	432	71	40	11	91%	4.2	14.2%	8.6%	5.6%	2.9%	5.66	4.58	—
2026	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	21	97	432	71	40	11	91%	4.2	16.4%	9.3%	7.2%	2.5%	5.66	4.35	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	TEX	1	1	7	30	5	2	1	100%	7.0	15.4%	7.2%	8.1%	2.8%	4.64	4.64	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	TEX	9	9	55	232	36	18	7	100%	6.1	15.7%	7.8%	7.9%	3.1%	4.75	4.84	+0.4
2029	33	MLB MLE	TEX	8	8	45	191	30	16	6	100%	5.7	15.8%	8.4%	7.4%	3.4%	4.91	5.05	+0.2
2028	32	MLB CTX	TEX	3	3	16	68	11	5	2	100%	5.3	15.7%	7.8%	7.9%	3.1%	4.75	4.84	+0.1
2029	33	MLB CTX	TEX	3	3	20	84	13	7	3	100%	6.7	15.8%	8.4%	7.4%	3.4%	4.91	5.05	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	6	36	151	24	12	5	100%	6.0	15.8%	8.1%	7.6%	3.2%	4.84	4.57	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	134	67	28	100%	6.0	15.8%	8.1%	7.6%	3.2%	4.84	4.57	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		209	155	894	3754	622	284	95	74%	4.3	16.6%	7.6%	9.0%	2.5%	4.02	4.05	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	35	200	840	139	64	21	74%	4.3	16.6%	7.6%	9.0%	2.5%	4.02	4.05	+1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAARound Rock Express · 93 IPFIP 4.36 → 4.58 (+0.22)K% 16.5% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.47%	—	×0.860	14.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.55%	—	×0.900	8.59%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.89%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.36 → 4.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 70 IPFIP 1.92 → 2.49 (+0.57)K% 26.3% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.30%	—	×0.810	21.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.19%	—	×1.100	5.71%
HR / BF /BF	0.69%	÷0.976	×1.200	0.85%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 1.92 → 2.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAARound Rock Express · 58 IPFIP 3.48 → 3.93 (+0.45)K% 22.6% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.63%	—	×0.860	19.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.41%	—	×0.900	6.67%
HR / BF /BF	2.47%	÷0.913	×1.100	2.97%

Result: FIP 3.48 → 3.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAIowa Cubs · 64 IPFIP 4.34 → 4.51 (+0.17)K% 19.4% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.43%	—	×0.860	16.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.42%	—	×0.900	6.68%
HR / BF /BF	3.53%	÷1.079	×1.100	3.60%

Result: FIP 4.34 → 4.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AATennessee Smokies · 21 IPFIP 3.42 → 4.28 (+0.86)K% 18.7% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.68%	—	×0.810	15.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.49%	—	×1.100	6.04%
HR / BF /BF	2.20%	÷0.854	×1.200	3.09%

Result: FIP 3.42 → 4.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 43 IPFIP 5.82 → 6.14 (+0.32)K% 11.9% → 10.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	11.88%	—	×0.860	10.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.92%	—	×0.900	7.13%
HR / BF /BF	4.95%	÷0.996	×1.100	5.47%

Result: FIP 5.82 → 6.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAMidland RockHounds · 42 IPFIP 3.70 → 4.42 (+0.72)K% 19.9% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.90%	—	×0.810	16.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.90%	—	×1.100	9.79%
HR / BF /BF	2.09%	÷0.957	×1.200	2.63%

Result: FIP 3.70 → 4.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAMidland RockHounds · 6 IPFIP 2.92 → 3.72 (+0.80)K% 33.3% → 27.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.810	27.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.83%	—	×1.100	22.92%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.793	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.92 → 3.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trey Supak (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	4.93	15.8%	7.7%	100	+0.29	—	—	—
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	86
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	82
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	78
Jorge Martinez R 2016 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP-	3.53	12.9%	5.3%	1.6%	.266	3.71	16.5%	11.5%	154	+0.18	3.53	214	78
Robert Ellis R 2001 · 4.84 FIP	30	SP	4.84	9.9%	7.7%	2.9%	.287	8.08	9.0%	-2.2%	18	+3.24	4.84	110	76
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	76
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	74
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	73
Tyler Herron R 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	16.4%	8.7%	2.2%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	117	73
Danny Gutierrez R 2017 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	15.1%	6.1%	2.8%	.362	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	239	73
Mitch Lively R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	31	SP-	3.47	17.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	158	73
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	71
Jonathan Castellanos R 2015 · 3.63 FIP	33	SP	3.63	12.2%	6.5%	1.3%	.313	4.15	11.8%	3.5%	216	+0.52	3.40	394	71
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	71
Daniel Guerrero R 2016 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP	4.81	12.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.328	4.93	11.7%	2.0%	175	+0.12	4.61	269	71
Luke Hudson R 2006 · 3.81 FIP	29	SP-	3.81	14.5%	8.4%	1.6%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	235	70
Hector Galvan R 2019 · 4.84 FIP	31	SP-	4.84	14.3%	12.2%	2.6%	.357	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	406	69
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2016 · 4.92 FIP	31	SP-	4.92	14.9%	7.2%	4.0%	.277	5.19	16.3%	8.8%	259	+0.27	3.97	567	69
Andres Ivan Meza R 2017 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP	4.14	12.5%	8.5%	1.8%	.351	4.33	11.7%	4.0%	89	+0.19	4.14	275	69
Stephen Fife R 2018 · 3.77 FIP	31	SP	3.77	12.5%	5.1%	2.0%	.374	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	264	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	15.6%	7.7%	1.18	4.75
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Eric Gunderson ('00)	1.1	76	13.3%	8.1%	1.14	4.95
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*
Steve Kealey ('68-'73, -1 WAR*)	1.1	54	18.5%*	7.2%*	1.32*	5.26*
Dave Leiper ('84-'96, 0 WAR*)	1.4	46	15.6%*	9.1%*	0.94*	4.28*