Trey Supak
P
Round Rock Express
Age 30
RHP
6'5" / 268 lbs
AAA
peak 0.9 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION75 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.33
FIP4.33
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.0%
BB%7.7%
K-BB%12.3%
IP76
K†5050
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2026
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | Bristol Pirates | 8 | 8 | 28 | 124 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 12.6% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 6.67 | 3.91 | +0.2 |
| 2016 | 20 | A | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 15 | 8 | 58 | 248 | 51 | 17 | 3 | 15.0% | 8.1% | 1.2% | 3.24 | 3.52 | +0.7 |
| 2017 | 21 | A+ | Carolina Mudcats | 23 | 18 | 113 | 453 | 110 | 38 | 13 | 18.3% | 9.7% | 3.8% | 3.57 | 4.88 | +0.7 |
| 2018 | 22 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 25 | 25 | 138 | 553 | 123 | 42 | 6 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 1.2% | 2.48 | 3.34 | +3.3 |
| 2019 | 23 | AAA | San Antonio Missions | 27 | 27 | 153 | 614 | 118 | 31 | 12 | 15.9% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 3.60 | 3.69 | +3.0 |
| 2022 | 26 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 4 | 3 | 8 | 31 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 25.8% | 19.4% | 0.0% | 1.17 | 3.37 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 37 | 6 | 85 | 393 | 62 | 33 | 14 | 13.2% | 9.0% | 4.2% | 5.61 | 5.41 | -0.3 |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 21 | 13 | 85 | 374 | 72 | 26 | 12 | 16.6% | 7.4% | 3.4% | 4.54 | 4.52 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 26 | 26 | 129 | 532 | 131 | 33 | 8 | 20.7% | 6.7% | 2.0% | 3.85 | 3.28 | +3.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 14 | 13 | 66 | 290 | 47 | 26 | 8 | 14.3% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 5.21 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | TEX | 14 | 14 | 76 | 319 | 64 | 24 | 9 | 20.0% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 30 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 141 | 609 | 111 | 50 | 17 | 18.2% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.74 | 4.53 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 13 | 13 | 70 | 298 | 59 | 24 | 9 | 19.9% | 8.2% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.53 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 12 | 12 | 65 | 275 | 54 | 24 | 9 | 19.8% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 4.61 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | TEX | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 49 | 23 | 9 | 19.4% | 9.1% | 3.6% | 4.81 | 4.97 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | TEX | 54 | — | 54 | 230 | 44 | 22 | 9 | 19.0% | 9.6% | 3.9% | 5.05 | 5.22 | -0.4 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | TEX | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 38 | 21 | 9 | 18.4% | 10.2% | 4.2% | 5.34 | 5.53 | -0.6 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | TEX | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 32 | 20 | 8 | 17.7% | 10.8% | 4.6% | 5.66 | 5.87 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 200 | 147 | 863 | 3612 | 604 | 283 | 92 | 16.7% | 7.8% | 2.5% | 3.92 | 4.08 | +13.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 34 | 200 | 837 | 140 | 66 | 21 | 16.7% | 7.8% | 2.5% | 3.92 | 4.08 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Trey Supak (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.33 | 20.0% | 7.7% | 2.8% | — | 4.73 | 19.7% | 11.1% | 196 | +0.40 | — | — | — |
| Merrill Kelly R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.21 | 20.3% | 6.8% | 3.6% | .289 | 3.67 | 21.1% | 14.8% | 390 | -0.54 | 3.54 | 1,073 | 84 |
| Charlie Morton R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.55 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 2.1% | .302 | 3.11 | 27.7% | 18.9% | 331 | -0.44 | 2.55 | 1,534 | 83 |
| Josh Lowey R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.30 | 21.1% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .311 | 2.34 | 26.7% | 20.1% | 231 | -0.96 | 2.28 | 426 | 83 |
| Justin Verlander R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.51 | 21.1% | 5.8% | 2.7% | .265 | 3.18 | 29.6% | 23.4% | 648 | -0.33 | 2.24 | 1,584 | 82 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez R 2027 · 3.67 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.67 | 21.2% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .302 | 4.58 | 20.6% | 10.5% | 285 | +0.91 | 3.67 | 469 | 82 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2029 · 3.49 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.49 | 18.7% | 4.2% | 2.6% | .285 | 4.58 | 17.3% | 9.6% | 253 | +1.09 | 3.49 | 393 | 82 |
| Thad Weber R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.82 | 13.7% | 6.4% | 3.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 11.2% | 5.7% | 202 | -0.19 | 4.55 | 363 | 81 |
| Cory Riordan R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.19 | 14.3% | 5.0% | 3.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 154 | 81 |
| Miles Mikolas R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.97 | 18.8% | 4.1% | 3.5% | .295 | 3.91 | 18.4% | 13.4% | 266 | -0.06 | 3.06 | 1,241 | 80 |
| Tom Koehler R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.39 | 19.0% | 9.8% | 3.0% | .291 | 4.71 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 110 | +0.32 | 4.39 | 474 | 80 |
| Jeff Samardzija R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.96 | 17.9% | 5.4% | 3.1% | .297 | 3.96 | 21.5% | 16.0% | 473 | -0.00 | 3.63 | 885 | 80 |
| Miguel González R 2027 · 4.59 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.59 | 17.5% | 7.9% | 3.6% | .289 | 4.25 | 15.9% | 9.0% | 325 | -0.34 | 3.73 | 469 | 79 |
| Matt Buschmann R 2027 · 3.92 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.92 | 17.2% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .282 | 4.71 | 12.8% | 4.4% | 142 | +0.79 | 3.92 | 277 | 79 |
| Jesse Chavez R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.80 | 20.2% | 6.8% | 2.8% | .309 | 4.37 | 22.0% | 16.2% | 300 | +0.57 | 2.03 | 804 | 78 |
| Jason Hammel R 2028 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.43 | 24.2% | 5.1% | 3.2% | .282 | 4.26 | 18.4% | 11.9% | 474 | +0.83 | 3.43 | 645 | 78 |
| Kyle Davies R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.72 | 13.8% | 6.1% | 1.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 153 | 78 |
| Toru Murata R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.86 | 13.3% | 6.9% | 1.8% | .261 | 3.55 | 12.9% | 7.2% | 102 | -0.31 | 3.55 | 267 | 78 |
| Matt Garza R 2027 · 4.78 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.78 | 15.6% | 8.1% | 3.6% | .315 | 4.45 | 15.5% | 7.7% | 216 | -0.33 | 4.12 | 365 | 78 |
| Ian Kennedy R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.46 | 24.4% | 6.7% | 4.7% | .293 | 4.91 | 21.1% | 13.0% | 469 | +0.45 | 2.87 | 864 | 78 |
| Daniel McCutchen R 2028 · 4.47 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.47 | 13.9% | 4.4% | 3.6% | .268 | 4.60 | 10.8% | 4.9% | 155 | +0.13 | 4.47 | 287 | 78 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.