Kevin Martinez

P DSL Colorado

Age 19 RHP 6'1" / 183 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	17	ROKCOL	10	10	46	2.15	3.23	22.0%	3.8%	—	K 14.9% · BB 4.8% · FIP 4.89
2026	18	ROKDSL Colorado	15	1	40	3.86	3.76	23.2%	7.7%	—	K 15.8% · BB 9.7% · FIP 5.28
2027PROJ	19	MLBCOL	24	0	25	4.91	4.91	15.6%	8.3%	-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	20	MLBCOL	20	0	21	4.78	4.74	17.1%	8.2%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control55Command45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsCarlos Gutierrez (age 19) · Luis Aguilar (age 19) · Simon Mathews (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.91

FIP4.91

K%15.6%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%7.3%

Proj IP25

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	10	10	46	182	40	7	5	100%	4.6	14.9%	4.8%	10.1%	4.5%	2.15	4.89	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	10	10	46	182	40	7	5	100%	4.6	14.9%	4.8%	10.1%	4.5%	2.15	4.89	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	10	10	46	182	40	7	5	100%	4.6	22.0%	3.8%	18.1%	2.7%	2.15	3.23	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	15	1	40	168	39	13	5	7%	2.6	15.8%	9.7%	6.1%	4.2%	3.86	5.28	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	15	1	40	168	39	13	5	7%	2.6	15.8%	9.7%	6.1%	4.2%	3.86	5.28	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	15	1	40	168	39	13	5	7%	2.6	23.2%	7.7%	15.5%	3.0%	3.86	3.76	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	19	MLB	COL	24	0	25	106	16	9	3	0%	1.0	15.6%	8.3%	7.3%	3.1%	4.91	4.91	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	COL	41	0	44	184	31	15	6	0%	1.1	17.1%	8.2%	8.8%	3.0%	4.78	4.74	-0.1
2028	20	MLB CTX	COL	20	0	21	89	15	7	3	0%	1.1	17.1%	8.2%	8.8%	3.0%	4.78	4.74	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		20	0	21	90	15	7	3	0%	1.1	17.1%	8.2%	8.8%	3.0%	4.78	4.36	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	140	65	28	0%	1.1	17.1%	8.2%	8.8%	3.0%	4.78	4.36	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		25	11	86	350	54	25	15	44%	3.4	15.3%	7.1%	8.2%	4.3%	2.94	5.08	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	26	200	817	125	58	35	44%	3.4	15.3%	7.1%	8.2%	4.3%	2.94	5.08	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kevin Martinez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	15.6%	8.3%	3.1%	—	4.74	17.1%	8.8%	44	-0.17	—	—	—
Carlos Gutierrez R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	19	SW	4.71	15.1%	7.1%	3.6%	.326	3.08	18.3%	6.2%	47	-1.63	3.08	122	90
Luis Aguilar R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	17.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.356	4.27	16.7%	6.7%	111	-0.18	3.51	146	86
Simon Mathews R 2017 · 4.09 FIP	21	SW	4.09	17.7%	7.5%	2.8%	.326	4.42	16.0%	5.9%	167	+0.33	4.09	215	85
Williander Moreno R 2018 · 4.21 FIP	19	SW	4.21	13.7%	7.5%	2.4%	.302	5.16	20.2%	10.1%	57	+0.95	3.20	246	84
Zac Correll R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	19	SW	4.75	13.9%	11.7%	2.5%	.282	2.82	19.3%	10.8%	72	-1.93	2.59	112	84
Chad Gaudin R 2003 · 4.42 FIP	20	SW	4.42	13.3%	9.2%	2.3%	.254	4.47	14.0%	3.3%	120	+0.05	2.02	930	83
Geno Encina R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	21	SW	4.22	16.5%	6.8%	3.0%	.325	7.09	12.0%	2.3%	76	+2.87	4.22	200	83
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	83
Elvis Novas R 2022 · 4.46 FIP	19	SU	4.46	15.7%	7.7%	3.1%	.281	3.82	16.5%	8.0%	91	-0.64	3.16	144	83
Luis Ojeda R 2016 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	12.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.344	5.39	12.1%	3.7%	92	+0.94	4.45	131	82
Brandon Komar R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	20	SW	4.77	17.7%	11.6%	3.1%	.327	4.93	16.7%	5.7%	198	+0.16	3.00	538	82
Deretd Parra R 2019 · 5.29 FIP	19	SP-	5.29	16.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.295	3.85	15.7%	2.3%	83	-1.44	2.79	161	82
Jacob Nix R 2015 · 3.96 FIP	19	SW	3.96	14.2%	9.6%	1.5%	.344	3.75	14.4%	8.9%	295	-0.21	3.41	314	82
Adolfo Oviedo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	19	SP-	3.74	17.2%	8.1%	1.9%	.272	4.90	12.6%	5.2%	124	+1.16	3.74	235	82
Saul Teran R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	20	SW	4.81	17.5%	9.8%	3.5%	.333	3.88	20.8%	8.7%	94	-0.93	2.28	166	82
Heitor Tokar R 2019 · 4.22 FIP	18	SW	4.22	13.7%	9.5%	1.9%	.275	5.06	15.2%	6.1%	130	+0.84	2.46	209	82
Nick Gallagher R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	22	SW	4.26	17.2%	7.1%	3.1%	.310	4.55	22.4%	7.1%	90	+0.29	4.10	196	82
Luis Gonzalez R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	19	SW	3.95	17.3%	8.4%	2.3%	.337	5.35	12.1%	3.2%	100	+1.40	2.71	234	82
Julio Goff R 2019 · 4.80 FIP	19	SW	4.80	16.1%	11.9%	2.8%	.364	4.70	16.4%	5.9%	207	-0.10	4.46	251	81
Gabriel Sosa R 2019 · 4.01 FIP	18	SW	4.01	10.5%	6.4%	1.8%	.295	4.29	18.4%	8.3%	58	+0.28	4.01	204	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	34	16.5%	8.3%	1.18	4.83
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Jeff Manship ('16)	1.1	32	16.5%	9.3%	1.05	4.82
Vic Darensbourg ('05)	1.5	50	17.0%	9.3%	1.01	4.96
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*
Dave Leiper ('84-'96, 0 WAR*)	1.4	46	15.6%*	9.1%*	0.94*	4.28*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*