Joan Pena

P ACL Brewers

Age 19 LHP 5'11" / 205 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	17	ROKDSL Brewers G…	10	6	44	3.25	2.51	22.6%	8.1%	—	K 15.4% · BB 10.1% · FIP 3.48
2026	18	MIX2 levels	17	4	54	6.96	4.31	24.6%	16.5%	—	K 17.2% · BB 20.3% · FIP 5.57
2027PROJ	19	MLBMIL	34	0	36	6.01	6.01	16.1%	18.0%	-0.6
2028PROJ49% MLB	20	MLBMIL	24	0	25	5.68	5.57	17.5%	15.6%	-0.3
2029PROJ73% MLB	21	MLBMIL	37	0	39	5.39	5.27	18.3%	14.0%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control45Command40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsEdgardo Ibarra (age 19) · Joseph Herrera (age 18) · Javier Navas (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131139vR 147

ERA6.01

FIP6.01

K%16.1%

BB%18.0%

K-BB%-1.8%

Proj IP36

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Gold	10	6	44	186	42	15	1	60%	4.4	15.4%	10.1%	5.3%	0.7%	3.25	3.48	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Gold	10	6	44	186	42	15	1	60%	4.4	15.4%	10.1%	5.3%	0.7%	3.25	3.48	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers Gold	10	6	44	186	42	15	1	60%	4.4	22.6%	8.1%	14.5%	0.5%	3.25	2.51	—
2026	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	4	54	272	67	45	5	24%	3.2	17.2%	20.3%	-3.1%	2.5%	6.96	5.57	—
2026	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	4	54	272	67	45	5	24%	3.2	17.2%	20.3%	-3.1%	2.5%	6.96	5.57	—
2026	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	4	54	272	67	45	5	24%	3.2	24.6%	16.5%	8.1%	1.8%	6.96	4.31	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	19	MLB	MIL	34	0	36	152	25	27	4	0%	1.1	16.1%	18.0%	-1.8%	2.9%	6.01	6.01	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	MIL	49	0	51	217	38	34	6	0%	1.0	17.5%	15.6%	1.9%	2.9%	5.68	5.57	-0.6
2029	21	MLB MLE	MIL	51	0	54	228	42	32	6	0%	1.1	18.3%	14.0%	4.3%	2.8%	5.39	5.27	-0.4
2028	20	MLB CTX	MIL	24	0	25	106	18	16	3	0%	1.0	17.5%	15.6%	1.9%	2.9%	5.68	5.57	-0.3
2029	21	MLB CTX	MIL	37	0	39	165	30	23	5	0%	1.1	18.3%	14.0%	4.3%	2.8%	5.39	5.27	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		61	0	65	272	49	40	8	0%	1.1	18.0%	14.6%	3.3%	2.9%	5.50	5.00	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	152	124	25	0%	1.1	18.0%	14.6%	3.3%	2.9%	5.50	5.00	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		27	10	99	458	75	74	8	37%	3.7	16.4%	16.1%	0.3%	1.8%	5.29	4.72	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	20	200	928	153	150	16	37%	3.7	16.4%	16.1%	0.3%	1.8%	5.29	4.72	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joan Pena (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.01	16.1%	18.0%	2.9%	—	5.42	17.9%	3.1%	105	-0.59	—	—	—
Edgardo Ibarra L 2022 · 5.37 FIP	19	SW	5.37	16.2%	16.6%	2.8%	.250	5.26	14.4%	-5.7%	63	-0.11	5.26	142	88
Joseph Herrera L 2024 · 5.50 FIP	18	SW	5.50	13.0%	20.5%	1.6%	.325	5.55	13.6%	-4.1%	67	+0.05	4.67	105	83
Javier Navas L 2017 · 6.10 FIP	19	SW	6.10	11.1%	19.7%	2.6%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	103	81
Jose Rengel L 2024 · 4.97 FIP	18	SW	4.97	13.4%	19.4%	1.0%	.340	5.07	13.4%	-0.0%	46	+0.10	3.33	132	79
Bryce Hubbart L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	17.0%	26.0%	1.7%	.303	5.28	17.9%	4.2%	149	-0.59	4.79	194	79
Juan Rojas L 2023 · 5.60 FIP	19	SP-	5.60	13.5%	14.4%	3.3%	.286	4.28	16.9%	2.0%	178	-1.32	2.74	282	78
Yeury Gervacio L 2018 · 4.88 FIP	19	SW	4.88	13.9%	13.8%	2.2%	.376	4.70	17.8%	4.2%	65	-0.18	4.10	184	78
Yordan Nodal L 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SW	5.02	15.7%	20.7%	1.2%	.292	5.13	14.7%	-0.2%	128	+0.11	4.94	193	77
Roberto Medina L 2024 · 5.29 FIP	19	SW	5.29	18.5%	19.6%	2.3%	.254	5.91	15.1%	-2.7%	45	+0.62	3.87	109	77
Salvador Montano L 2015 · 5.23 FIP	21	SP-	5.23	11.5%	15.9%	2.0%	.301	4.65	21.3%	-0.0%	71	-0.58	4.44	116	77
Roberth Fernandez L 2015 · 5.66 FIP	20	SW	5.66	11.4%	16.2%	2.7%	.356	4.92	14.7%	6.3%	60	-0.74	4.92	103	76
Alvaro Gamez L 2024 · 5.50 FIP	19	SW	5.50	13.2%	21.0%	1.6%	.278	7.06	15.0%	-9.3%	21	+1.56	4.57	115	75
Colby Langford L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	22	SW	5.34	21.6%	22.5%	2.2%	.273	6.01	22.2%	-1.1%	110	+0.67	4.92	168	75
Nathanael Heredia L 2019 · 5.00 FIP	18	SP-	5.00	14.3%	19.2%	1.2%	.287	4.78	19.4%	-1.9%	130	-0.22	3.74	290	75
Ferrol Heredia L 2018 · 5.17 FIP	19	SW	5.17	14.0%	22.6%	0.7%	.246	4.59	13.6%	-2.4%	55	-0.58	4.59	127	74
Sandro Bargallo L 2021 · 6.70 FIP	19	SP-	6.70	15.8%	26.5%	2.9%	.308	4.91	19.2%	-3.1%	82	-1.79	4.16	129	74
Gabe Morales L 2018 · 5.12 FIP	19	SP-	5.12	19.3%	21.0%	1.8%	.313	4.23	22.9%	8.7%	124	-0.89	2.92	268	72
Luis Gutierrez L 2022 · 6.38 FIP	19	SW	6.38	11.7%	20.5%	3.0%	.244	4.27	15.5%	5.5%	231	-2.11	3.26	296	72
Victor Payano L 2015 · 6.06 FIP	22	SP-	6.06	14.8%	16.5%	3.9%	.287	4.82	20.5%	7.0%	225	-1.24	3.78	341	72
McKenzie Mills L 2015 · 7.06 FIP	19	SP-	7.06	9.8%	21.4%	3.8%	.288	4.17	18.2%	11.0%	227	-2.89	4.12	334	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	47	17.5%	15.6%	1.12	5.65
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Lloyd Allen ('69-'75, -5 WAR*)	1.5	59	19.8%*	13.9%*	0.79*	5.99*